1、 Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of asphalt fell sharply in March. At the end of the month, the price of asphalt was reported as 3250 yuan / ton, down 4.97% compared with that at the beginning of the month.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Products: in March, the price of international crude oil market fell sharply, the cost of asphalt kept dropping, and the demand of asphalt market fell to a low point, and the price of domestic asphalt market kept falling.
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Industry chain: the OPEC + conference collapsed, Saudi Arabia and Russia successively announced the news of continuous release of a substantial increase in production. At the same time, due to the impact of the overseas epidemic, more and more countries have taken measures to restrict travel, forcing more refineries to gradually reduce production. Goldman Sachs predicted that the global demand for crude oil in March will fall by 10.5 million barrels / day, and may fall by 18.7 million barrels / day in April. It is still possible that the relevant agencies will continue to reduce their crude oil demand expectations. The international crude oil market fell sharply to $20 / barrel, WTI crude oil fell by 54% and Brent crude oil by 45%.
In the aspect of asphalt Market: in March, the crude oil market price continued to fall, the asphalt production cost continued to decrease, Sinopec’s Asphalt prices in East China and South China decreased by 200 yuan / ton, and the asphalt transaction prices in Northeast China, Shandong and Hebei continued to decrease, which made it difficult to stop the market price decline. And the domestic asphalt just needs to recover is limited, and the trend of crude oil price is pessimistic. Major institutions continue to reduce the price expectation in the later period, the market mentality is pessimistic, there are fewer transactions, and the space for asphalt reduction continues to expand. In March, the domestic asphalt market price continued to be lowered.
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3、 Future forecast
Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at business news agency, believes that the overseas epidemic situation is on the rise, and there is no sign of production reduction in Saudi Arabia and Russia, and the international crude oil market is under pressure. In addition, April has not yet reached the peak season of asphalt demand, and it is expected that the asphalt price will be adjusted mainly below.
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