In the past week (October 21-27), the domestic PA6 spot market has fluctuated and risen slightly, with mainstream production enterprises raising their prices by up to 400 yuan/ton, while the PA6 benchmark price remains at 15000 yuan/ton. In terms of technical indicators, the 5-day and 10 day moving averages have risen, while the 20 day moving averages have remained flat, showing a strong rebound signal. However, the direction of the moving averages has not been fully synchronized, and a clear unilateral upward trend has not been formed; The 60 day cycle price is in a high range on the cycle position, and the short-term upward space is limited.
The influencing factors include a cost reduction of 160 yuan/ton in the third week settlement price of Sinopec Caprolactam upstream, which has caused a negative impact on the raw material side. However, this adjustment has not yet been transmitted to PA6 finished products. The high raw material prices in the early stage still provide a certain cost support for slicing, and the processing profits of aggregation enterprises continue to be compressed. The pure benzene market fluctuated narrowly without significant fluctuations, which limited its ability to further pull or exert pressure on caprolactam.
On the supply and demand side, the overall operation of PA6 polymerization plants in China has remained at a moderate level, and some enterprises have flexibly adjusted their inventory levels according to their own needs. The supply of spot goods in the market is still acceptable; After a round of price increases in the early stage, factory inventory has been partially digested, and holders have a strong willingness to raise prices, reducing the phenomenon of low-priced shipments. On the demand side, there is a strong demand for follow-up and high price resistance. Downstream nylon spinning and modified injection molding continue to operate normally, with limited growth during the autumn and winter peak seasons. There is no significant increase in terminal orders, and downstream factories mostly purchase on demand. There is a lack of willingness to stock up on a large scale, and there is a high resistance to high priced goods transactions. There is room for negotiation on actual orders.
In the short term, PA6 is expected to maintain a volatile bullish pattern in the future market forecast. The cost support brought by the high raw material prices in the early stage is still present, and enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, with short-term upward momentum; However, the current price is at a high level in the 60 day cycle, and downstream acceptance of high priced raw materials is limited. Coupled with the subsequent transmission risk of the weekly settlement price of caprolactam, it is difficult for the market to continue to rise sharply, and we need to be alert to the risk of a pullback driven by cost decline.
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