Since October, the spot market for styrene butadiene rubber has been fluctuating and declining, with a price of 16175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the holiday, it was boosted by the strength of crude oil and butadiene, rising to 16833 yuan/ton. Subsequently, downstream resistance to high prices led to a slight decline in the center of gravity around 16133 yuan/ton. As of the 21st, the price has dropped by 3.01% compared to the previous month.
Geopolitical disturbances have pushed up crude oil prices, driving butadiene to operate at a high level. However, with the resumption of cracking units and an increase in imported goods, butadiene supply has gradually eased, resulting in a slight decline in prices. Since October, there has been a contraction in the supply of styrene units due to maintenance and load reduction, supported by low port inventory. However, downstream ABS, PS, and EPS have weak willingness to receive goods, and there is insufficient follow-up on demand, which has constrained the increase in styrene prices. As of October 21st, the price of butadiene was 13233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34% from 13550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of October 21st, the price of styrene was 11014 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.81% from 10610 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The domestic styrene butadiene plant has been operating at around 70% capacity, with minimal maintenance and no obvious destocking or accumulation, making it difficult for the supply side to form strong support.
After the holiday, the dividends of the peak season of Golden September have faded, and the demand for all steel tires is weak. The inventory of tire products is slow, and profits are under pressure. Many enterprises just need to purchase and avoid hoarding. The demand for non tire materials such as shoe materials and rubber hoses is flat and lacks increment. Insufficient support for styrene butadiene rubber.
Market forecast:
Technically speaking, from the spot moving average chart, the current spot price of styrene butadiene rubber has fallen below the short-term 5-day and 10 day moving averages, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum. The medium to long term moving average (20/30/60 days) is still upward, and the medium-term upward trend has not been broken, forming a support range. Short term indicators have turned around, indicating a need for a pullback to digest profit taking orders. Predict a weak consolidation of short-term fluctuations, supported by the medium to long-term moving average below; If the support is held, the market may stabilize and rebound again. If it effectively falls below the moving average, the downside space will expand.
Fundamentally speaking, in the short term, styrene butadiene rubber will fluctuate at a high level, with strong resistance above. Without centralized replenishment, it will be difficult to stand firm, and cost and rigid demand support will limit the potential for deep decline. In the medium to long term, as we enter the traditional off-season of November and December, demand will further weaken, and the price center is prone to decline but difficult to rise. If the support of crude oil collapses, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the fourth quarter will drop significantly.
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