According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of lithium carbonate has continued to fluctuate recently. As of April 8th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 156000 yuan/ton, up 1.3% month on month and 117% year-on-year. The core trend is jointly dominated by supply side games, demand side resilience, and macro emotions.
Supply side: “Double Disturbance” Game, Policy and Supply Uncertainty Dominate
The supply side is the core “trigger” of this round of price fluctuations, with two major disruptive factors continuing to ferment, causing the market to oscillate between “relaxing expectations” and “long-term tightening”.
Zimbabwe ban: undecided, repeatedly disturbed
On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe announced an indefinite suspension of lithium raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, which will be fully implemented on March 3. The core goal is to promote local value-added processing of minerals and emulate the Indonesian nickel ore model. At the end of March, there were rumors that Chinese funded enterprises such as China National Mining Corporation were granted export quotas, leading to a sharp drop in prices; However, Zhongkuang Resources responded that there was only communication and no clear timeline. On March 31st, the eighth cabinet meeting reiterated the maintenance of the ban with no signs of relaxation. On April 2nd, it was reported online that the latest document from Zimbabwe shows that companies must build lithium sulfate factories that meet government standards, pass inspections, and have production capacity before January 1, 2027; After January 1, 2027, only deep processed products such as lithium sulfate are allowed to be exported, and the export of lithium concentrate is completely prohibited.
Australian fuel crisis: marginal disturbance amplified
Affected by the situation in the Middle East, diesel supply is tight in some mines in Australia. The annual consumption of diesel in Australian mining is about 9.6 billion liters, and lithium mines are not a priority supply target. Although it is clarified that diesel is mainly used for transportation and has not directly affected production, Australia accounts for about 30% of global lithium supply, and the current supply elasticity is declining. Any marginal disturbance is easily amplified as a “supply interruption risk”, exacerbating market anxiety.
Other supply disturbances: The uncertainty of resuming production at mines such as Ningde Jianxiawo continues, coupled with the unclear pace of resuming production at major domestic mines, resulting in insufficient overall supply side elasticity and further amplifying price fluctuations.
Demand side: Energy storage becomes the core increment, providing support for automobile recovery
The demand side is the high priced “ballast stone”, driven by both energy storage and new energy vehicles, with demand resilience exceeding expectations.
Energy storage: the largest growth engine, accounting for over 40% of production scheduling
In March 2026, the total production capacity of the domestic lithium battery market was about 219 GWh, a month on month increase of 16.5%. Among them, the proportion of energy storage battery cell production increased to 40.6%, a significant increase from the beginning of the year, and has become a core demand source on par with power batteries. The price of energy storage systems has stabilized and rebounded, with 314Ah energy storage cells rising from 0.31 yuan/Wh to 0.36 yuan/Wh, and the bid price of energy storage systems rising from 0.5 yuan/Wh to 0.8 yuan/Wh. The price recovery combined with increased demand has accelerated the realization of the prosperity.

New energy vehicles: mild recovery, resilient loading capacity
In March, the estimated wholesale volume of new energy vehicles for passenger car manufacturers nationwide was 1.12 million, which remained the same year-on-year but increased month on month. Coupled with the continuous increase in single vehicle charging capacity, the battery loading volume did not significantly shrink. Tesla’s Shanghai factory delivered over 85600 vehicles in March, a month on month increase of 46%. Nearly 60% of global deliveries in the first quarter came from the Shanghai factory, highlighting strong demand in the Chinese market.
Supply and demand gap support: Morgan Stanley predicts a lithium shortage of 80000 tons in 2026, while UBS predicts a shortage of 22000 tons. The supply and demand gap provides fundamental support for high prices.
Analysis of Future Trends from the Technical Perspective of Business Society’s Spot Connect
As can be seen from the graph, the current daily moving average is above the 10 day moving average, and the 10 day moving average is above the 20 day moving average, indicating an upward trend.
Although the current price is at a mid to low level on the 10th, it is expected to remain at a high level in the long run, with limited upward potential.
Overall, the demand for lithium carbonate is strong, and there is upward momentum in the price curve. However, there are frequent news disturbances, great instability in the supply side, and the price is at a high level, with limited upward space. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

This week (3.31-4.3), the polyester bottle chip market showed a high-level oscillation, initially suppressed and then rising trend, with the core being driven by cost, tight supply, and cautious demand. As of April 3rd, according to the price data from Shengyi Society, the weekly average price of East China water bottle grade spot goods is 8780 yuan/ton; At the beginning of the week, due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and the decline in oil prices, the price dropped from around 8800 yuan/ton to 8600-8650 yuan/ton. The week was dominated by low positions and downstream demand small orders. Starting from Thursday, the price rebounded due to the maintenance of PTA major factories and the strengthening of the basis. On Friday, the mainstream price was reported at 8700-8750 yuan/ton, mainly supported by strong costs, tight supply, and cautious demand games.
2、 Core market analysis
1. Cost side: Geopolitics+oil prices, strong support
The situation in the Middle East is tense, and international crude oil is fluctuating at high levels (around Brent $118/barrel)
PTA major factory maintenance, strengthening foundation, and rising raw material costs
The production cost of bottle slices is about 7509 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 443 yuan/ton, and there is still profit
2. Supply side: Low production and tight spot availability
Industry operating rate of 71.7% (slightly increased month on month)
Large factories are controlling their sales volume and reducing contract goods, resulting in low social inventory for six months
Lack of spot circulation, difficulty in obtaining goods, and strengthening basis
3. Demand side: Expected peak season, but high price suppression
Domestic: Beverage peak season stocking has started, but high prices suppress procurement, downstream orders are made on demand to digest inventory
• Exports: 430000 tons exported in February (month on month -15.39%), but still increased year-on-year, supported by overseas inventory replenishment
3、 Future prospects
1、 Short term (1-3 weeks): Strong fluctuations at high levels, peak season surges
Trend characteristics: The short-term moving average (10 days) shows an upward trend, while the medium-term moving average (20 days) shows a downward trend. Currently, there are signs of the short-term moving average surpassing the long-term moving average, indicating strong short-term upward momentum.
Location characteristics: The short-term moving average (10 days) is at a high level (1 point) in the 5th range, the 20 day moving average is at the middle level (3 points) in the 5th range, and the 30 day moving average is at a high level (1 point) in the 5th range.
Core judgment: Strong consolidation in the range of 8500-9000 yuan/ton, with a potential short-term impact of 9200 yuan/ton.
Risk points: significant drop in oil prices, intensified resistance to downstream high prices, and slowdown in procurement.
（2） Mid term (1-3 months): fluctuating and falling back, gradually returning to a rational range
Location characteristics: The current price is in a one-year super high state, with a premium of 20% compared to the median value of 7355 yuan/ton and a premium of 43.1% compared to the average value of 6168.75 yuan/ton. The position is consistently low, and the pressure of high-level correction continues to accumulate;
Trend characteristics:
New production capacity release: Approximately 1.35 million tons will be added in 2026, with concentrated production in the second half of the year and loose supply.
• End of peak season: Beverage demand weakened by the end of Q3, and downstream entered the destocking stage.
Cost loosening: PX will increase production capacity by the end of the year, PTA processing fees will be repaired, and cost support will be weakened.
Supply and demand shift: from tight balance to weak balance/slight easing.
Core judgment: The price gradually falls back to 8000-8600 yuan/ton, and the average price has decreased compared to the first half of the year.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid continued to rise in March. As of March 31, the average market price was 4140.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1343.33 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month’s acetic acid price of 2796.67 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 48.03%.
The acetic acid market rose strongly in March, and the price of acetic acid continued to rise. Due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts, the price of raw material methanol has been running at a high level, and the cost side has provided strong support for the price of acetic acid, leading to a significant increase in the acetic acid market; The operating load of some acetic acid plants on the supply side is not full, the operating rate of acetic acid is not high, the inventory of enterprises is relatively low, and manufacturers have a strong intention to increase prices; On the downstream side, the prices of products such as acetic anhydride and ethyl acetate continue to rise, and the demand side has strong support for acetic acid. Under the influence of multiple favorable factors, the price of acetic acid rose strongly within the month.
The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating strongly, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride rising from 4540.00 yuan/ton to 6162.50 yuan/ton from March 1st to 31st, an increase of 35.74%. The production of acetic anhydride on the supply side is stable, and there is not much inventory pressure on the enterprise. Downstream follow-up is mainly based on demand. The price trend of raw material acetic acid is strong, and cost support is favorable. Acetic anhydride is affected by upstream factors and operates at a high price, resulting in a strong upward adjustment of acetic anhydride prices within the month.
The raw material methanol market rose strongly in March. As of March 31st, the average market price was 3356.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.58% compared to the beginning of the month price of 2200.00 yuan/ton. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, methanol imports have shrunk, and methanol prices in the port market have risen, driving up spot market prices. At the same time, some methanol companies continue to reduce inventory, local olefin external procurement demand and downstream demand are gradually recovering, which supports the strong rise in methanol prices.
Market forecast: Business analysts believe that the current operating rate of acetic acid plants is not high, and enterprise inventory is relatively low. Some plants are expected to undergo maintenance in April, and the supply side will continue to be tight. The downstream market is strong, and demand support is strong. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will continue to rise, and specific attention will be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

After the high platform volatility of silver prices at the end of December 2025, the price surged violently in January, continued to fall in March, and stabilized and rebounded at the end of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of silver on March 31, 2026 was 18373 yuan/kg, a decrease of 20.10% from the spot price of 22994.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (3.1).
In March 2026, the silver market experienced a severe correction, with prices plummeting significantly. The significant drop in silver prices this time was not caused by a single factor, but rather by the resonance of multiple factors such as macro policies, market funds, geopolitical situation, and industrial demand. The specific reasons are analyzed as follows:
1、 Macro policy leadership: The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has strengthened, and expectations of interest rate cuts have completely cooled down
Silver has both financial and industrial properties as a precious metal, and its price trend is highly linked to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and real interest rate levels. The hawkish policy shift of the Federal Reserve is the core driving factor behind the decline of silver this time. After the March FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, Powell and several Fed officials intensively released hawkish signals, clearly stating that the current inflation stickiness has not eased and will maintain high interest rates in the long run. They even mentioned discussing the possibility of interest rate hikes, completely compressing the room for interest rate cuts in 2026. The market’s expectation for interest rate cuts within the year has sharply decreased from three at the beginning of the year to less than one, and the first interest rate cut has also been postponed from June to around December. Due to silver being an interest free asset, the holding cost is positively correlated with the interest rate level. The expectation of high interest rates continues to raise the holding cost, leading to a large amount of speculative funds withdrawing from the silver market and turning to assets with more stable returns such as the US dollar and US bonds, directly laying the main tone for the monthly decline in silver prices.
2、 Pricing suppression: The strong upward trend of the US dollar index further amplifies the downward pressure
As a precious metal priced in US dollars, silver prices usually show a negative correlation with the US dollar index, and the strong rise of the US dollar in March further exacerbated the downward trend of silver. Supported by the hawkish policies of the Federal Reserve, positive economic data from the United States, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East driving up energy prices and the demand for safe haven in the US dollar, the US dollar index continued to strengthen in March, breaking through the 105.5 mark at one point and reaching a new high in nearly 10 months. The strengthening of the US dollar not only directly compresses the pricing space of silver, leading to a passive decline in silver prices, but also triggers global capital inflows into US dollar assets, further exacerbating the outflow pressure on the silver market. This is also an important reason why silver fell significantly more than gold in March.
3、 Market capital disturbance: profit taking stacking and high leverage trampling, accelerating price decline

Silver’s annual increase in 2025 is expected to reach 130% -147%, with the highest reaching $117.7 per ounce, accumulating a large amount of short-term profit opportunities; At the same time, the size of the silver market is only 1/10 of that of gold, with a leverage ratio of over 35%, which inherently has high volatility. After the hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve was released in March, early profits were concentrated and liquidated, coupled with high leverage long positions triggering programmed stop loss, forming a phased selling wave. Among them, on March 19th, there was an extreme situation of selling $38 billion within 28 minutes, with a single day drop of 12%, further triggering panic selling in the market and accelerating the decline of silver prices. In addition, the continuous reduction of holdings in the world’s largest silver ETF also confirms the trend of fund withdrawal, further driving down silver prices.
4、 Abnormal geopolitical situation: the support for hedging has failed, and the pressure has intensified in the opposite direction
Since March, the situation in the Middle East has continued to escalate, with the confrontation between the United States and Iran in the Red Sea and Syria intensifying. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been obstructed, pushing international oil prices above $110 per barrel. But unlike the traditional logic of “buying precious metals in troubled times”, this geopolitical conflict did not provide effective support for silver prices, but instead formed an abnormal transmission chain: rising oil prices → strengthening inflation expectations → central bank maintaining high interest rates → silver under pressure. Due to the weaker hedging properties of silver compared to gold, and the dual suppression of inflation stickiness and high interest rate expectations, the hedging buying push brought by geopolitical conflicts is limited, unable to offset the negative pressure at the macro level and prevent the downward trend of silver prices.
5、 Weakened industrial demand: insufficient short-term support, difficult to form effective bottom support
Although in the long run, the global silver supply and demand gap is expected to widen to 130-145 million ounces by 2026, marking the sixth consecutive year of shortage, and industrial demand in areas such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI data centers continues to grow, the short-term support for industrial demand in March has shown marginal weakening. Global manufacturing PMI data shows that orders in core industrial silver fields such as photovoltaics and electronics manufacturing have weakened month on month, and the growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity has briefly slowed down. Coupled with some photovoltaic companies promoting “de silvering” technology, the short-term industrial buying has insufficient support for silver prices. At the same time, market concerns about the global economic recovery falling short of expectations have also cooled down expectations for industrial demand growth, further weakening the industrial attribute support of silver.
Summary and Future Prospects
In summary, the significant drop in silver prices in March 2026 is the result of short-term negative factors such as the hawkish policies of the Federal Reserve, the strong rise of the US dollar, and the stampede of funds, which resonate with the weakening of short-term support for industrial demand. In the short term, if high interest rate expectations and the strong pattern of the US dollar continue, silver prices will still face downward pressure; In the long run, core factors such as the widening global silver supply and demand gap and the growth of industrial demand will still provide bottom support for silver prices. The subsequent trend mainly depends on the pace of the Federal Reserve’s policy shift, the recovery of industrial demand, and the evolution of the geopolitical situation.

price trend
In March 2026, the overall price of PA6 showed a trend of “rapid rise followed by high volatility”, mainly driven by strong cost support and tight supply, and the market was in a stalemate between cost and demand. The benchmark price of Shengyi Society rose from 10866.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 14033.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 29.14%, and reached a high of 14500 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The trend is divided into two stages: a rapid increase driven by costs in the first half of the year, followed by a high-level stalemate and narrow range oscillation in the second half.
influencing factors
In terms of cost:
This month’s geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up crude oil prices, driving up pure benzene and rapidly transmitting cost pressures. As the core raw material of PA6, the price of Caprolactam (CPL) continues to rise, with a weekly settlement price of 12910 yuan/ton by Sinopec in late March. Although it has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, it is still at a high level. The tight supply and demand in the caprolactam industry, coupled with strong bargaining power, have solidified the bottom of PA6 costs.
Supply side:
This month, the early maintenance equipment in the domestic PA6 industry has gradually resumed, new production capacity has been released, and spot supply has steadily increased, but the overall situation is still relatively tight. The market’s low-priced supply has decreased, and traders have shown a clear reluctance to sell, with bargaining power leaning towards suppliers.
In terms of demand:
This month, the textile and chemical fiber industry has resumed work comprehensively, with a rebound in production and entering the post holiday replenishment cycle. However, the acceptance of high prices is low, and small orders are generally adopted for immediate use and procurement without centralized replenishment. Large orders are rare, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude.
Market forecast:
In the short term, it is expected that the PA6 market will experience high-level fluctuations and a slight upward shift in focus. The cost side still has strong support and is difficult to fall significantly in the short term; The slow recovery of demand makes it difficult to drive a unilateral surge or maintain narrow fluctuations. If geopolitical conflicts ease, crude oil and pure benzene fall, or downstream demand continues to shrink, prices may experience a slight correction; But the probability of a significant short-term decline is low.