In the second half of May, the industrial grade dimethyl carbonate market continued its weak downward trend. As of May 28th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.42% during the period.
fundamental analysis
On the cost side, both methanol and epichlorohydrin have seen slight increases, but the price of dimethyl carbonate has unilaterally declined. The impact of cost fluctuations on dimethyl carbonate has weakened, and dimethyl carbonate is passively squeezing profits in exchange for shipments.
Supply side: The price decline is accompanied by a decrease of about 53% in operating rate, some equipment maintenance, and a certain contraction in the supply side. However, inventory pressure has not yet eased, and the benefits of supply contraction are completely offset by weak demand. Inventory pressure remains the main contradiction.
On the demand side, the overall downstream demand is weak, and the support for prices is insufficient, which is the core driving factor for the sustained weakness of the market. Downstream procurement willingness for electrolytes, PCs, and other products is sluggish, with a focus on essential needs and insufficient willingness to replenish inventory.
Market forecast:
The current price is approaching the cost line, coupled with supply contraction caused by some equipment maintenance, and the space for further significant decline is limited; However, the signal of weak demand and negative widening of the mean difference has not changed, making it difficult for prices to form a trend rebound. It is expected that dimethyl carbonate will fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and a bottoming signal is beginning to emerge.

1、 This week’s market overview
This week, the domestic acrylic acid market continued to operate weakly, with a continuous downward shift in price focus. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of acrylic acid on May 21st was 8650.00 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 14.78% compared to the beginning of the month (10150.00 yuan/ton), with no obvious signs of rebound. The industry as a whole showed a trend of “consolidation after decline and light trading”.
Fundamental 3D Decomposition: Triple Resonance of Cost, Supply, and Demand
1. Cost side: Weakening of raw material propylene, further loosening of support
The upstream propylene market has remained weak this week. As of May 27th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9067.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.49% compared to the beginning of this month (9494.33 yuan/ton). The price of propylene continues to weaken its cost support for acrylic acid. The production profit of acrylic acid has narrowed to the loss zone, with only minor cost support yet to collapse, but further action is already lacking.
2. Supply side: Limited device maintenance, industry operating rate under pressure
In terms of supply, the acrylic acid units of CNOOC and Lanzhou Petrochemical have been temporarily shut down, resulting in a decrease in industry production. However, the supply of spot goods is still relatively sufficient, and there has been no significant destocking of factory inventory. Holders of goods continue to follow the market and sell at a discounted price.
It is worth noting that although the operating rates of some enterprises have declined, the overall pattern of oversupply on the supply side has not fundamentally changed. Since the beginning of the year, the industry’s operating rate has remained at a medium high level, and the current load level of 70% -75% is still above average in the same period of history. In the short term, the pressure of destocking on the supply side has not subsided.
3. Demand side: downstream load reduction across the entire line, with a focus on individual orders for essential needs
The demand side is the core driving factor in the current acrylic acid market. The overall operating rate of downstream industries of acrylic acid is declining, with insufficient terminal orders and low purchasing willingness
Butyl acrylate: As the main downstream consumer of acrylic acid, the operating rate has further decreased from 58.07% in the previous cycle to 54.97%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points, reflecting weak demand in industries such as terminal adhesives and coatings.
SAP resin: The operating rate remained at 52.38%, unchanged from the previous level, indicating that the demand for hygiene products and other application areas is still acceptable, but there has not been an incremental pull.
Overall, the demand side is showing a cycle of “downstream negative load reduction → sporadic rigid demand → no centralized replenishment → deepening wait-and-see”, with no signs of reversal or acceleration.
4、 Outlook: Bottom signal yet to be confirmed, trend outlook for next week
Based on current technical signals, fundamentals, and macro variables, our assessment of the acrylic acid market for next week is as follows:
Technical aspect: The current moving average is in a negative narrowing stage, indicating that the downward inertia has weakened, but the bearish alignment has not broken, the moving average has not turned, and the reversal signal is not yet sufficient. If the mean difference further narrows or even turns positive, it is necessary to re-examine the market trend.
On the cost side: In the short term, the raw material propylene still faces dual pressures of increased supply and weak downstream demand, and is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern. The cost support for acrylic acid is difficult to strengthen, and upstream cannot provide upward momentum for prices.

Fundamental core: Whether the demand side can initiate centralized replenishment remains a decisive variable. The current operating rate of butyl acrylate is still hovering at a low level around 54%. If there is marginal improvement in downstream terminal orders or concentrated release of procurement windows, the market may gradually stabilize; On the contrary, if the demand side continues to decline, there is still a risk of further downward pressure on the price center.
Key focus: Changes in the operating rate of the acrylic acid industry, especially in the dynamic maintenance of equipment, the operating situation of core downstream products such as butyl acrylate, and the trend changes in the price of raw material propylene.
Overall, it is highly likely that the acrylic acid market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate at a low level next week, with relatively limited upper and lower space. The possibility of short-term reversal and upward trend is low, and the medium to long term recovery needs to wait for the signals of the moving average stopping the decline and turning positive, as well as the concentrated entry of downstream demand. The key support level can first focus on the emotional game situation near the 8500 yuan/ton threshold.

1、 Price trend
As of May 26th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 5060 yuan/ton. In the past week, the domestic DMF market has shown a weak pattern of first falling and then stabilizing, with low levels of stagnation and light transactions. The price has dropped by 12% compared to early May, and the overall pressure on the market is obvious due to loose supply and demand combined with weak cost support.
2、 Cause analysis
Market supply: High production levels, inventory backlog, and prominent supply pressure. This week, the DMF market supply was loose, and high production levels combined with inventory accumulation continued to exert pressure on prices. The regional price war intensified, and the production rate remained high, with the industry operating at a rate of over 75%. Early maintenance facilities resumed production, and major facilities such as Guizhou and Anyang were operating normally. The market spot circulation continued to increase, and the supply side increment was significant.
Raw material cost: The core production cost of DMF is composed of methanol and liquid ammonia. This week, the weak operation of raw material prices has insufficient support for DMF prices, providing space for market price reduction. Methanol: fluctuated at a low level during the week, first rising and then falling, with an average price of about 2150 yuan/ton, which weakened year-on-year. The decline in methanol prices directly lowers the production cost of DMF, leaving ample room for manufacturers to lower prices and significantly reducing their willingness to raise prices. Liquid ammonia: prices fluctuate steadily and narrowly, with no significant fluctuations, and there is no additional pressure on the cost side, but no support has been formed. Industry profits: DMF prices continue to decline, and enterprise profits have significantly shrunk. Some small factories in the north have suffered losses and are forced to reduce production or shut down, but the impact on the overall cost pattern is limited. Overall, the cost line lacks sufficient protection against current prices, and the market is prone to falling but difficult to rise.
Downstream demand: Downstream core industries have weak demand, insufficient terminal orders, and downstream enterprises adhere to the strategy of “low inventory, on-demand procurement”. Market transactions are mainly small orders, lacking support from large orders, and the operating rate remains at 70% -75%. However, the terminal nylon and chemical fiber industries are in the off-season, with insufficient orders and stable demand without increment. They only purchase small orders according to demand, which has limited driving force for cyclohexane demand. The solvent industry: constrained by environmental policies, some enterprises turn to substitute products, demand continues to shrink, procurement willingness is low, and demand in industries such as electronics and coatings is flat, with no obvious signs of recovery, making it difficult to form effective support. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, resistance to high prices, rare bulk transactions, and low market activity. The overall demand side is weak and difficult to eliminate, leading to loose supply.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will mainly operate in a narrow and weak range, and the situation of oversupply in the market is difficult to alleviate in the short term. Downstream demand is average, the driving force for price increases is insufficient, and the demand for terminal orders is insufficient, resulting in a significant contraction in profits.

This week, the domestic epoxy propane market as a whole showed a narrow range of fluctuations and weak transactions, with limited price fluctuations and a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The upstream and downstream game characteristics were obvious. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of May 22, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 9200 yuan/ton, a decrease of -10.39% compared to the first day.
Raw material side: This week, the spot supply of raw material propylene is relatively loose, and the shipment rhythm of refineries is stable. The price has slightly fallen, which has loosened the support for the cost side of epoxy propane. At the same time, the price of liquid chlorine remains relatively stable and operates at a low level overall, easing the overall production cost pressure of epichlorohydrin. The lack of significant fluctuations in raw material prices has caused epoxy propane to lose its strong cost drive, making it difficult to form a sustained upward trend. As a result, the overall trend is mainly based on small adjustments following the raw materials, and the guiding role of the cost side in the market is relatively weak. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of May 22, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9134.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.79% compared to the beginning of this month (9494.33 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The overall supply of epoxy propane in China remained stable this week, with some units operating normally and few undergoing maintenance. The overall operating rate of the industry is at a moderate level. Partial integrated enterprises have stable shipments and normal regional supply circulation; Due to inventory pressure, a small number of manufacturers offer moderate discounts on shipments. Regionally, the main production areas in Shandong and East China have sufficient supply of goods, with no significant backlog or shortage of enterprise inventory. Overall, there were no concentrated production cuts or sudden equipment failures on the supply side this week, and the market supply is sufficient. The loose pattern has not changed, which has significantly suppressed price increases.
Demand side: The downstream polyether polyol industry is mainly in urgent need of procurement. Recently, downstream terminal industries such as home furnishings, soft furniture, and automotive interiors have been operating at a moderate pace, with insufficient orders. Polyether manufacturers are picking up goods as needed and unwilling to stock up in large quantities. The demand for small downstream industries such as fine chemicals and pharmaceutical intermediates is stable but limited in scale, making it difficult to drive overall demand. The overall downstream market has a low willingness to chase after price increases, and many adopt a “buy as you go” model. The market transactions are light, and low-priced goods are shipped relatively smoothly. High priced transactions are weak, and the weak demand directly leads to insufficient action in the epoxy propane market.
Comprehensive forecast: Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that this week’s epoxy propane market will be mainly affected by three factors: limited raw material support, stable and loose supply, and weak downstream demand, with overall weak fluctuations. In the short term, the fluctuation space of raw material propylene is limited, and there is no obvious contraction plan on the supply side. However, downstream terminal demand is slowly recovering, and the market lacks positive stimulation. It is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will continue to maintain a narrow consolidation pattern, with prices unlikely to fluctuate significantly. In the future, the focus will be on the trend of upstream raw materials, the dynamics of main production areas, and changes in downstream polyether industry operations. The market will still be dominated by supply and demand games.

In May, silver prices first rose and then fell, with a wide range of fluctuations moving forward. As of the 22nd, the monthly amplitude was 18.81%. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the silver market quoted 18667 yuan/kg on May 22, 2026, an increase of 3.52% compared to the spot price of 18031.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (5.1); Compared to the high of 21424 yuan/kg on May 14th, it decreased by 12.87%.
The general logic of silver operation in May is as follows:
This month, silver has shown a pattern of first strength and then weakness, dominated by financial expectations and supported by industrial demand. Its price volatility is significantly greater than that of gold, reflecting its high elasticity and volatility attributes. From the beginning to the middle of the month, the market game showed a weak downward trend in the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, coupled with repeated geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and rising global inflation expectations, leading to a collective strengthening of precious metals; At the same time, the rigid demand for silver in industries such as photovoltaics and semiconductors, coupled with low overseas spot inventory, drove silver prices to quickly rise, reaching a high point for the month on May 14th.
After mid month, the market reversed, with the core driving force being the unexpected US inflation data, the significant cooling of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar and US bond yields, and the pressure on precious metal valuations. At the same time, the excessive increase in the early stage triggered capital profit taking, coupled with institutions lowering their expectations for silver prices, and market sentiment turned cautious. Although there is a strong demand for photovoltaic power in the industrial sector, high prices have suppressed some purchases, and there is insufficient follow-up on physical consumption, which has not prevented prices from falling.
In terms of rhythm, there was a volatile upward trend at the beginning of the month, and the resonance between geopolitical factors and expectations of interest rate cuts pushed up prices; Strong surge from May 7th to 14th, with financial attributes dominating the market; After May 15th, the market continued to decline, with macroeconomic expectations reversing and funds leaving, causing prices to quickly retreat to near the beginning of the month level. Overall, silver exhibits a typical “expectation correction” trend in the game between financial expectations and industrial demand, with short-term fluctuations amplified, but still constrained by the supply-demand gap and the direction of monetary policy in the medium to long term.