1、 Price trend
As of May 21st, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane is 7383 yuan/ton. Currently, cyclohexane is mainly operating in a narrow range, and weak demand is suppressing its upward trend.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of the market, terminal demand is relatively weak, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. Downstream caprolactam/adipic acid production rates remain at 70% -75%, with insufficient orders. Demand remains stable but without any increase, while downstream demand insists on low inventory and on-demand procurement, resisting high prices. Batch transactions are rare, and traders are cautious. The nylon and chemical fiber industries are in the off-season, with weak textile demand, which is transmitted to the cyclohexane sector, and the demand side lacks driving force.
In terms of supply, the production of the equipment is stable, with sufficient spot supply and an average operating rate of 75% -80% for domestic cyclohexane plants. Large factories are operating at full capacity, with stable and loose supply. The inventory of enterprises is moderately high, and the inventory of ports in East China is about 12000 tons, with increasing shipping pressure.
In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene has weakened, cost support has loosened, and raw material pure benzene has continued to fall since May. Today, Shandong pure benzene is 6800 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of more than 5%. The production cost of cyclohexane has decreased, benzene prices have weakened, and the gross profit of cyclohexane tons has been restored to 800-1000 yuan. Manufacturers lack the confidence to raise prices, and their willingness to sell at high prices has weakened. The cost decline has been transmitted to the spot market, resulting in a short-term price stalemate, which may continue to be under pressure with benzene prices in the future.
3、 Future forecast
The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the market price of cyclohexane lacks upward momentum, downstream demand is insufficient, and upstream cost support is lacking, with narrow fluctuations being the main factor.

Recently, the domestic formic acid market has shown an overall trend of sideways consolidation, with stable prices and no significant fluctuations. The market supply and demand are in a weak balance pattern. As of May 18th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 2400 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 14.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 4%.

Supply and demand pattern: dominated by weak balance, inventory is above the median level
The current supply-demand balance in the domestic formic acid market is weak, which is the core reason for maintaining price stability. On the supply side, the overall supply of goods in the market is sufficient, and there has been no significant reduction in production capacity. Most production enterprises have stable equipment operation, providing basic support for price stability and not forming a driving force for price increase. However, it is worth noting that the overall inventory of the industry is in the upper middle range. Starting from May 13th, the market began to have expectations of inventory accumulation, further suppressing the upward space of prices.
The demand side has become the core weakness of the current market, with downstream manufacturers generally holding a bearish attitude and low purchasing willingness, mainly focusing on purchasing for essential needs and replenishing a small amount of inventory, without centralized stocking behavior, resulting in insufficient market transaction activity. Formic acid has a wide range of downstream applications, covering multiple fields such as rubber, pharmaceuticals, textile printing and dyeing, leather, pesticides, etc. However, in recent times, the operating rates of most downstream industries have remained at a low level, and the weak demand trend is obvious, which cannot form an effective demand pull, resulting in the overall market being in a weak balance state, making it difficult to promote price increases.

Price Prediction: Maintenance Expectations Exist, Expected to Break the Horizontal Pattern
During the sideways trading cycle from May 11th to 15th, core market variables emerged, with the most noteworthy being the expected maintenance of supply side equipment, which may become a key factor in breaking the current sideways pattern.
On May 13th, market news showed that some formic acid manufacturers planned to carry out equipment maintenance work in mid month; Subsequently, on May 14th and 15th, industry sources further clarified that some companies will officially launch maintenance plans by the end of this week and this weekend. According to past market patterns, equipment maintenance by enterprises will directly lead to a reduction in the scale of the market supply side, alleviate the current pressure of inventory accumulation, and thus support prices, and even potentially drive prices up slightly.
Based on the spot trading of Shengyi Society, the current 10 day moving average is below the 20 day moving average, with a negative narrowing and a decrease in the moving average, indicating a slowdown in the decline, and an upward crossing signal is about to appear, indicating the start of an upward trend. Moreover, the current formic acid price is at a low level and there is room for upward movement.
Overall, the domestic formic acid market is currently in a weak and stable operation stage, and maintenance expectations have become the main positive support for the short-term market. It is expected that the price will show a slight upward trend in the short term, but the long-term trend still needs to rely on substantial improvement in the supply and demand pattern.

1、 Market Review
Recently, the PA66 market has shown a slight downward trend after fluctuating at a high level. On May 8th, the benchmark price was 23666.67 yuan/ton, which dropped to 22666.67 yuan/ton on May 14th, a decrease of 3.55% from the beginning of the month (23500.00 yuan/ton), and the short-term trend shifted from upward to downward. The current price is in the mid to high range of the one-year statistical cycle, with a drop of about 2400 yuan/ton from the one-year high.
2、 Cause analysis
On the cost side, in terms of adipic acid, the increase in the first quarter exceeded 50%, but since April, the market has turned into a narrow range oscillation, with some periods experiencing a decline of up to 2000 yuan/ton, and the marginal cost support has weakened. Although there was a significant increase in the price of hexamethylenediamine at the beginning of the year (with the bulk water price in East China rising from 16300 yuan/ton to 28000 yuan/ton), the recent upward trend has slowed down, which has reduced the driving force for PA66 prices. Although the energy premium still exists and the short-term cost center is difficult to shift downwards, the overall raw materials have entered a period of adjustment.
On the supply side, the decrease in imported goods has led to a tight spot market, low inventory levels among manufacturers and traders, and a strong reluctance to sell, resulting in certain price support.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as textiles have low acceptance of high prices and generally adopt the strategy of “small orders for immediate demand and on-demand procurement”. Large orders are rare, trading is light, and high prices suppress production, forming a stalemate pattern of “supply side control and demand suppression”.
3、 Future forecast
In the future, it is expected that the PA66 market will maintain high volatility in the short term, and there is little possibility of significant unilateral fluctuations. The price trend will highly depend on changes in raw materials and the progress of downstream order recovery. If there is no significant improvement in demand, high prices may continue or the situation of “having price but no market” may persist.

This week, the acrylic acid market continued its downward trend. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of acrylic acid on May 12th was 9316.67 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 8.21% from the beginning of this month (10150 yuan/ton on May 5th).
This week, the price of acrylic acid showed a continuous weakening trend: on May 5th, the price was 10150 yuan/ton, and on May 8th, it fell sharply by 3.06% to 9516.67 yuan/ton, and then continued to decline slightly. On May 11th, the price fell to 9316.67 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.76%. The market downturn has not shown any obvious signs of slowing down.
2、 Moving average signal: bearish trend clear, downward momentum still exists
Based on the analysis of the Business Society’s spot market moving average and spread indicators, the current bearish signals in the market are clear:
1. The moving average arrangement has completely weakened: This week, the price of acrylic acid has continued to operate below the 10 day and 20 day moving averages, and the 10 day moving average (red) has always been below the 20 day moving average (blue), forming a typical “bearish arrangement”. The 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average both show a downward sloping trend, with prices continuously breaking below the moving average, and the short-term trend has completely turned downward.
2. Verification of downward momentum using the moving average indicator: According to the principle of business social moving average, the current 10 day moving average is below the 20 day moving average, and the moving average is in the negative range. As the price continues to fall, the moving average shows a negative expansion characteristic, indicating that the market’s downward momentum is still being released and there is no short-term stop signal.
3、 Price Position and Supply Demand Analysis
1. Price position: Short term low operation, there is still downward space
From the perspective of cycle position, the current price of acrylic acid is at a low level during the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, and 60 day cycles, only at the median level in the 90 day and one-year dimensions. Based on the price statistics within the year, the current price is 9316.67 yuan/ton, with a downward space of 3466.67 yuan/ton from the low point of 5850 yuan/ton within the year. However, there is a pullback of 3800 yuan/ton from the high point of 13116.67 yuan/ton within the year, and short-term downward support has not yet fully manifested.
2. Supply and demand side: Limited cost support and insufficient demand follow-up
Cost side: Raw material propylene fluctuated and consolidated this week, with relatively stable support on the cost side. There was no significant cost collapse or rise, and the impact on acrylic acid prices was neutral. On May 12th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9264.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.42% compared to the beginning of this month (9494.33 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Acrylic acid factories and holders continue to loosen their orders, with some sources offering discounts for shipments. The pressure on market circulation has increased, and traders have a strong willingness to ship, further suppressing market prices.
Demand side: Downstream demand follow-up is average, and terminal procurement is mainly based on essential needs. The market lacks centralized replenishment support, and coupled with the lack of significant increase in downstream industry operating load, the overall purchasing sentiment is cautious, making it difficult to form an effective bottom line for prices.

4、 Future prospects
In the short term, the acrylic acid market still faces a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the signals of bearish alignment of moving averages and negative expansion of moving averages have not yet reversed. The market downturn is likely to continue.
If there is no significant increase in the price of raw material propylene and there is no concentrated release of downstream demand, the price of acrylic acid may continue to decline, falling towards the range of 8800-9000 yuan/ton. 9000 yuan/ton is a short-term key psychological threshold, and if it falls below or accelerates towards 8800; If there is a concentrated maintenance of factories or a rebound in downstream orders in the later stage, coupled with unexpected cost side strengthening, the market downturn may gradually slow down, but the possibility of short-term reversal and upward trend is relatively small.
In the future, it is necessary to focus on the trend of raw material propylene, factory operation dynamics, and downstream terminal procurement rhythm, and timely grasp the changes in market trends.

1、 Market Review
As of May 10th, the benchmark price of PA66 in Shengyi Society was 23000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.13% from the beginning of the month (23500 yuan/ton). The current price is in the mid to high range of the one-year statistical cycle, and the downward trend since late April has significantly slowed down this week, showing a stable trend amidst the decline.
2、 Cause analysis
On the cost side, the adipic acid market experienced a significant decline in April, with a drop of around 2000 yuan/ton at one point. But recently, the market has turned into a narrow range of fluctuations and weakened, and it is expected that the fluctuations in May will be limited. The adipic acid plant operates stably, and the overall market spot supply is sufficient, providing relatively mild cost support for PA66. However, its marginal weakening has partially weakened the previously strong cost driven upward logic.
On the supply side, there has been a slight adjustment in the spot supply of PA66 market recently, and some aggregation enterprises are facing cost pressure. The intention to raise prices and reduce production still exists.
On the demand side, the downstream maintains a rhythm of on-demand procurement, and the overall transaction atmosphere is flat. End customers have a clear resistance to high priced goods, and are cautious in following up on high priced orders, only maintaining rigid replenishment.
3、 Future forecast
Overall, the short-term price of PA66 will fluctuate slightly around the current high level, with a focus on changes in raw material prices and downstream demand recovery progress. If raw material prices fall or demand remains weak, there may be a slight price correction; If raw materials remain at a high level or demand unexpectedly recovers, prices are expected to rise slightly, with limited overall volatility, and the stalemate pattern is difficult to break significantly.