This week, the domestic epoxy propane market as a whole showed a narrow range of fluctuations and weak transactions, with limited price fluctuations and a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The upstream and downstream game characteristics were obvious. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of May 22, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 9200 yuan/ton, a decrease of -10.39% compared to the first day.
Raw material side: This week, the spot supply of raw material propylene is relatively loose, and the shipment rhythm of refineries is stable. The price has slightly fallen, which has loosened the support for the cost side of epoxy propane. At the same time, the price of liquid chlorine remains relatively stable and operates at a low level overall, easing the overall production cost pressure of epichlorohydrin. The lack of significant fluctuations in raw material prices has caused epoxy propane to lose its strong cost drive, making it difficult to form a sustained upward trend. As a result, the overall trend is mainly based on small adjustments following the raw materials, and the guiding role of the cost side in the market is relatively weak. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of May 22, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9134.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.79% compared to the beginning of this month (9494.33 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The overall supply of epoxy propane in China remained stable this week, with some units operating normally and few undergoing maintenance. The overall operating rate of the industry is at a moderate level. Partial integrated enterprises have stable shipments and normal regional supply circulation; Due to inventory pressure, a small number of manufacturers offer moderate discounts on shipments. Regionally, the main production areas in Shandong and East China have sufficient supply of goods, with no significant backlog or shortage of enterprise inventory. Overall, there were no concentrated production cuts or sudden equipment failures on the supply side this week, and the market supply is sufficient. The loose pattern has not changed, which has significantly suppressed price increases.
Demand side: The downstream polyether polyol industry is mainly in urgent need of procurement. Recently, downstream terminal industries such as home furnishings, soft furniture, and automotive interiors have been operating at a moderate pace, with insufficient orders. Polyether manufacturers are picking up goods as needed and unwilling to stock up in large quantities. The demand for small downstream industries such as fine chemicals and pharmaceutical intermediates is stable but limited in scale, making it difficult to drive overall demand. The overall downstream market has a low willingness to chase after price increases, and many adopt a “buy as you go” model. The market transactions are light, and low-priced goods are shipped relatively smoothly. High priced transactions are weak, and the weak demand directly leads to insufficient action in the epoxy propane market.
Comprehensive forecast: Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that this week’s epoxy propane market will be mainly affected by three factors: limited raw material support, stable and loose supply, and weak downstream demand, with overall weak fluctuations. In the short term, the fluctuation space of raw material propylene is limited, and there is no obvious contraction plan on the supply side. However, downstream terminal demand is slowly recovering, and the market lacks positive stimulation. It is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will continue to maintain a narrow consolidation pattern, with prices unlikely to fluctuate significantly. In the future, the focus will be on the trend of upstream raw materials, the dynamics of main production areas, and changes in downstream polyether industry operations. The market will still be dominated by supply and demand games.
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