Entering late September, the domestic PP market is consolidating at a high level, with prices of various grades of products fluctuating. As of September 24th, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing was quoted at 9883.330 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.56% compared to the beginning of the month.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
The situation in the Middle East was turbulent in the first half of September, and the ceasefire agreement was difficult to implement, which pushed up international crude oil prices. In recent days, Iranian President visited the United States to attend a meeting, and US President Trump publicly expressed his willingness to meet with Iranian President. At the same time, Iran has conveyed clear conditions to the mediator to restart negotiations, marking a substantial diplomatic breakthrough signal in the ongoing US Iran confrontation. The focus of market trading has shifted from “supply interruption panic” to “situation cooling and supply recovery”. The shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have decreased, and market concerns about international crude oil supply have eased. Geopolitical premiums have been reduced, and PP’s remote cost value has fallen at a high level. At the same time, propylene significantly followed the decline, and overall, the support for PP from the raw material side weakened in late September.
Supply side:
In late September, domestic PP enterprises experienced a combination of maintenance and restart, with an overall operating rate of nearly 70%, which was more stable than the previous period. The future supply changes are limited. The current weekly average production is still around 700000 tons, and the inventory level is relatively low at around 500000 tons. Overall, the slow recovery of supply and low inventory levels have provided some support for spot prices, and the supply side’s support for spot prices is still acceptable.
In terms of demand:
The current consumption of polypropylene is in the traditional peak season, and demand has gradually emerged from the off-season level since the beginning of the month, with downstream markets in the industry slowly following suit. However, due to the off-season situation on the cost side in the early stage, coupled with the fact that PP spot prices have risen to a high level, buyers’ acceptance of high priced goods is insufficient, and the overall trading atmosphere is cautious. The terminal enterprise strategy tends to be on-demand, with mostly scattered small orders and poor enthusiasm for building warehouses on site, resulting in generally low inventory levels. The operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises has slightly improved, with downstream loads approaching 47%, and overall demand side support for PP.
Future forecast
In late September, the domestic PP market prices stabilized at a high level. From a fundamental perspective, the cost side has experienced a high decline, while the demand side has seen a moderate increase in orders in the early stages. Recently, pre holiday stocking has basically ended, and downstream operations have returned to caution. PP analysts believe that the current PP market supply and demand are weak, coupled with the drag of cost value rebound, there may still be downward pressure in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the industry production situation in October and the situation in the Middle East, the United States, and Iran.

1、 Price trend
As of September 22, the reference average price of urea market in Shandong Province, China was 1767 yuan/ton, which was 1.94% lower than the reference average price of 1802 yuan/ton on September 16.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
Recently, the domestic urea market has been weak and declining. The urea market is oversupplied. The impact of the release of urea export quotas has weakened. As of September 22, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1700-1770 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1740-1780 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1700-1750 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1680-1740 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1780-1800 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, the urea market is currently well supplied, and inventory remains high. The equipment may gradually resume production in the later stage. In terms of demand, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have insufficient purchasing enthusiasm, agricultural fertilizer preparation has not yet accelerated, and there is no significant improvement on the demand side.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the domestic urea market has been declining recently. Autumn fertilizer preparation is approaching, but the demand for urea has not yet been released, resulting in a high market inventory. It is expected that domestic urea prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend
On September 20th, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was 1250 yuan/ton, which was 4.75% higher than the average market price of 1193 yuan/ton on September 14th.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate continues to rise strongly, while the market price of coking grade ammonium sulfate has slightly adjusted. The transition period for ammonium sulfate method testing has ended this week, and the current peak season for particle demand has led to an increase in downstream procurement demand. The international demand for ammonium sulfate is improving, with support from the demand side and good market trading.
market situation
As of September 20th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1000 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1200-1280 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the price trend of ammonium sulfate continues to rise in recent days. At present, there is support on the demand side, and market transactions are still acceptable. It is expected that the market price of ammonium sulfate will remain stable and rise in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to policy changes.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 9550 yuan/ton on September 14th and 9491 yuan/ton on September 18th, a decrease of 0.61%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 12200 yuan/ton on September 14th and 12266 yuan/ton on September 18th, an increase of 0.55%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on September 14th was 11100 yuan/ton, and on September 18th it was 10800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.70%.
In September, polyethylene maintenance facilities resumed production one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has increased. There are still plans to resume production of facilities in the future, and coupled with the expectation of new production capacity, supply pressure will gradually accumulate, and the reality of tight balance will shift towards a bearish expectation.
The overall downstream demand is weak, and only the demand for thin films has certain resilience. The peak season for agricultural film and wire drawing did not meet expectations, and the market maintained on-demand procurement.
Recently, crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, with a slight decline in oil prices and weakened cost support. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike has pushed up the US dollar, suppressing the center of gravity of commodity prices and increasing market volatility.
Short term: Polyethylene mainly oscillates at high levels. Low inventory levels are difficult to sustain a deep decline, but the resumption of production and high prices have limited room for sustained growth in demand.

1、 Price trend
As of September 16th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises is 6000 yuan/ton. DMF continues to be strong this week and has entered an accelerated upward phase. Regional spot delivery prices reference: 5850-6000 yuan/ton in Guangdong, South China, 5600-5700 yuan/ton in Shandong and surrounding areas. Mainstream enterprises generally quote above 6000 yuan/ton.
2、 Cause analysis
Cost wise: Methanol port inventory hit a new low of 381800 tons since 2013, a year-on-year decrease of 69.87%; Taicang spot goods are strongly supported at 3765-3790 yuan/ton, but high prices have shown negative feedback. The supply of synthetic ammonia/liquid ammonia in the north is tight beyond expectations, with mainstream prices in Shandong reaching 2690-2930 yuan/ton, setting a new high for the second half of the year. The cost of dimethylamine has risen, directly affecting the methanol end: port inventories have fallen to the lowest level since 2013, and imports continue to contract due to the shutdown of Iranian facilities and the obstruction of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The short-term supply gap is difficult to fill, but we need to be vigilant about high profits stimulating production resumption – the national operating rate of methanol is 82.89%. In mid to late September, the expectation of multiple sets of facilities restarting has heated up. There have been signs of auction failure and market correction in mainland China this weekend, limiting upward elasticity. Synthetic ammonia end: Coking enterprises have reduced losses and delayed the resumption of Relieve, the quasi price of liquid amino acid has increased to 2950 yuan/ton within the week.
Supply side: The biggest variable this week is the shutdown and maintenance of a coal gasification unit and supporting products starting from September 8th, with a cycle of about 20 days, which is expected to affect revenue of 230 million yuan. The coal gasification unit is the “heart” of downstream product lines such as DMF, and this maintenance further strengthens the supply contraction logic. Starting from mid to late August, the 150000 ton/year plant in Jingzhou will undergo maintenance for about three weeks. As a result, the output of top enterprises is limited, and there is no pressure on factory inventory and a strong willingness to raise prices. The overall production of the industry has declined compared to the previous period.
Demand situation: PU pulp/synthetic leather (consumption ratio of 60%+): The operating rate of ordinary pulp this week was 61%, unchanged from the previous week. The wet process in East China was 8200-8700 yuan/ton, and the dry process was 8500-9000 yuan/ton, with a stable focus. The pulp factory mainly focuses on digesting the increase in DMF and scheduling production according to the plan, with limited new orders and mostly executing pre contracts. The terminal: domestic trade in shoes, clothing, bags and suitcases is weak, and foreign trade is not as good as in previous years. The leather factory only replenishes according to demand without centralized stocking. Autumn and winter orders are “produced according to plan with limited growth”. Electronic grade DMF: independent and strong, but small in size; The demand for acrylic fiber and pharmaceutical solvents is rigid but difficult to change the overall situation. Export: Southeast Asia/South Asia orders remain stable, with only a small amount of domestic surplus diverted.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the benchmark scenario (with a high probability) is that DMF will remain strongly volatile and the center of gravity will shift slightly upwards in the remaining time of September. The price reference for Jiangsu is in the range of 5600-6300 yuan/ton, supported by: ① Hualu Hengsheng’s maintenance will continue until the end of September, with tight spot prices continuing; ② low methanol inventory and geopolitical premium are difficult to break in the short term; ③ demand during the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season is still slowly released.