1、 Market Review
Recently, the PA66 market has shown a slight downward trend after fluctuating at a high level. On May 8th, the benchmark price was 23666.67 yuan/ton, which dropped to 22666.67 yuan/ton on May 14th, a decrease of 3.55% from the beginning of the month (23500.00 yuan/ton), and the short-term trend shifted from upward to downward. The current price is in the mid to high range of the one-year statistical cycle, with a drop of about 2400 yuan/ton from the one-year high.
2、 Cause analysis
On the cost side, in terms of adipic acid, the increase in the first quarter exceeded 50%, but since April, the market has turned into a narrow range oscillation, with some periods experiencing a decline of up to 2000 yuan/ton, and the marginal cost support has weakened. Although there was a significant increase in the price of hexamethylenediamine at the beginning of the year (with the bulk water price in East China rising from 16300 yuan/ton to 28000 yuan/ton), the recent upward trend has slowed down, which has reduced the driving force for PA66 prices. Although the energy premium still exists and the short-term cost center is difficult to shift downwards, the overall raw materials have entered a period of adjustment.
On the supply side, the decrease in imported goods has led to a tight spot market, low inventory levels among manufacturers and traders, and a strong reluctance to sell, resulting in certain price support.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as textiles have low acceptance of high prices and generally adopt the strategy of “small orders for immediate demand and on-demand procurement”. Large orders are rare, trading is light, and high prices suppress production, forming a stalemate pattern of “supply side control and demand suppression”.
3、 Future forecast
In the future, it is expected that the PA66 market will maintain high volatility in the short term, and there is little possibility of significant unilateral fluctuations. The price trend will highly depend on changes in raw materials and the progress of downstream order recovery. If there is no significant improvement in demand, high prices may continue or the situation of “having price but no market” may persist.

This week, the acrylic acid market continued its downward trend. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of acrylic acid on May 12th was 9316.67 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 8.21% from the beginning of this month (10150 yuan/ton on May 5th).
This week, the price of acrylic acid showed a continuous weakening trend: on May 5th, the price was 10150 yuan/ton, and on May 8th, it fell sharply by 3.06% to 9516.67 yuan/ton, and then continued to decline slightly. On May 11th, the price fell to 9316.67 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.76%. The market downturn has not shown any obvious signs of slowing down.
2、 Moving average signal: bearish trend clear, downward momentum still exists
Based on the analysis of the Business Society’s spot market moving average and spread indicators, the current bearish signals in the market are clear:
1. The moving average arrangement has completely weakened: This week, the price of acrylic acid has continued to operate below the 10 day and 20 day moving averages, and the 10 day moving average (red) has always been below the 20 day moving average (blue), forming a typical “bearish arrangement”. The 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average both show a downward sloping trend, with prices continuously breaking below the moving average, and the short-term trend has completely turned downward.
2. Verification of downward momentum using the moving average indicator: According to the principle of business social moving average, the current 10 day moving average is below the 20 day moving average, and the moving average is in the negative range. As the price continues to fall, the moving average shows a negative expansion characteristic, indicating that the market’s downward momentum is still being released and there is no short-term stop signal.
3、 Price Position and Supply Demand Analysis
1. Price position: Short term low operation, there is still downward space
From the perspective of cycle position, the current price of acrylic acid is at a low level during the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, and 60 day cycles, only at the median level in the 90 day and one-year dimensions. Based on the price statistics within the year, the current price is 9316.67 yuan/ton, with a downward space of 3466.67 yuan/ton from the low point of 5850 yuan/ton within the year. However, there is a pullback of 3800 yuan/ton from the high point of 13116.67 yuan/ton within the year, and short-term downward support has not yet fully manifested.
2. Supply and demand side: Limited cost support and insufficient demand follow-up
Cost side: Raw material propylene fluctuated and consolidated this week, with relatively stable support on the cost side. There was no significant cost collapse or rise, and the impact on acrylic acid prices was neutral. On May 12th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9264.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.42% compared to the beginning of this month (9494.33 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Acrylic acid factories and holders continue to loosen their orders, with some sources offering discounts for shipments. The pressure on market circulation has increased, and traders have a strong willingness to ship, further suppressing market prices.
Demand side: Downstream demand follow-up is average, and terminal procurement is mainly based on essential needs. The market lacks centralized replenishment support, and coupled with the lack of significant increase in downstream industry operating load, the overall purchasing sentiment is cautious, making it difficult to form an effective bottom line for prices.

4、 Future prospects
In the short term, the acrylic acid market still faces a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the signals of bearish alignment of moving averages and negative expansion of moving averages have not yet reversed. The market downturn is likely to continue.
If there is no significant increase in the price of raw material propylene and there is no concentrated release of downstream demand, the price of acrylic acid may continue to decline, falling towards the range of 8800-9000 yuan/ton. 9000 yuan/ton is a short-term key psychological threshold, and if it falls below or accelerates towards 8800; If there is a concentrated maintenance of factories or a rebound in downstream orders in the later stage, coupled with unexpected cost side strengthening, the market downturn may gradually slow down, but the possibility of short-term reversal and upward trend is relatively small.
In the future, it is necessary to focus on the trend of raw material propylene, factory operation dynamics, and downstream terminal procurement rhythm, and timely grasp the changes in market trends.

1、 Market Review
As of May 10th, the benchmark price of PA66 in Shengyi Society was 23000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.13% from the beginning of the month (23500 yuan/ton). The current price is in the mid to high range of the one-year statistical cycle, and the downward trend since late April has significantly slowed down this week, showing a stable trend amidst the decline.
2、 Cause analysis
On the cost side, the adipic acid market experienced a significant decline in April, with a drop of around 2000 yuan/ton at one point. But recently, the market has turned into a narrow range of fluctuations and weakened, and it is expected that the fluctuations in May will be limited. The adipic acid plant operates stably, and the overall market spot supply is sufficient, providing relatively mild cost support for PA66. However, its marginal weakening has partially weakened the previously strong cost driven upward logic.
On the supply side, there has been a slight adjustment in the spot supply of PA66 market recently, and some aggregation enterprises are facing cost pressure. The intention to raise prices and reduce production still exists.
On the demand side, the downstream maintains a rhythm of on-demand procurement, and the overall transaction atmosphere is flat. End customers have a clear resistance to high priced goods, and are cautious in following up on high priced orders, only maintaining rigid replenishment.
3、 Future forecast
Overall, the short-term price of PA66 will fluctuate slightly around the current high level, with a focus on changes in raw material prices and downstream demand recovery progress. If raw material prices fall or demand remains weak, there may be a slight price correction; If raw materials remain at a high level or demand unexpectedly recovers, prices are expected to rise slightly, with limited overall volatility, and the stalemate pattern is difficult to break significantly.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has slightly declined. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3493.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% from the beginning of the week price of 3518.75 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 4.44%.
Supply side: Multiple factors affecting loose spot availability of fluorite
1. The mines are continuously resuming production, and the operating rate in the main production areas is increasing
Recently, the resumption of work in domestic fluorite mines and beneficiation plants has accelerated, and the core production areas in the north have gradually increased their operating load due to the warming weather; The safety and environmental protection inspections in major production areas such as Zhejiang and Inner Mongolia have slowed down, the operating rate has increased, and the supply of spot goods has increased. Newly discovered fluorite mines in Sichuan and Gansu have strengthened expectations of loose supply in the medium to long term, leading to a slight decline in the fluorite market.
2. Normalization of industry regulation makes it difficult to add new mines
As a national strategic scarce mineral, fluorite has been continuously upgraded in safety and environmental control in recent years, with increased efforts to control the total amount of mining and accelerated elimination of backward small and medium-sized mines, leading to a continuous increase in industry concentration. The approval process for new mines is strict, and mineral exploration is difficult. The effective production capacity growth of domestic fluorite is weak, and high-grade raw ore is becoming increasingly scarce. At the same time, the normalization of mining rectification and production restrictions measures has further compressed the market circulation of goods and suppressed the decline of fluorite raw materials.
3. Maintain high import volume to alleviate the domestic supply-demand gap
The domestic dependence on foreign fluorite exceeds 30%. From January to March 2026, imports will continue to increase, with concentrated arrival at ports and prices generally 300-500 yuan/ton lower than domestic ones. In addition, low arsenic fluorite (≤ 0.0005%) in China has zero tariffs, further reducing import costs. Mongolia’s fluorite imports remain at a high level, driving down the domestic fluorite market prices.
Demand side: Traditional demand is weak, while rigid demand is the main source of procurement
The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is only about 50%, and most of them suffer serious losses. The procurement of essential needs is the main focus, which significantly reduces the price of upstream fluorite. Downstream refrigerants (R22/R32, etc.) are affected by the flat demand for quotas and household appliances, and the operating rate is difficult to exceed 50%. Downstream hydrogen fluoride companies tend to be cautious about purchasing fluorite, adopting a strategy of on-demand replenishment and batch replenishment, and only conducting phased purchases. Conventional procurement plans have generally slowed down, which has led to a decline in the fluorite market. However, the demand for fluorine chemical products in the fields of new energy and new materials continues to grow, and the growth rate of demand for products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and fluorine-containing polymers is impressive, indirectly driving the demand for fluorite. The resilience of medium and long-term demand is highlighted, providing support for fluorite prices and limiting the decline of fluorite market.
Market forecast: Due to the warming weather in northern production areas and the accelerated resumption of mining production, some manufacturers in the domestic fluorite market have high inventory; The operating rate of downstream fluorine chemical industry has not changed much, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. It is expected that the price of fluorite may slightly decrease, but the cost inversion is obvious, and the decline of fluorite is limited.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12933 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12866/ton, a decrease of 0.52% in price.
The prices of domestic coconut shell activated carbon manufacturers have risen this week. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-13000 yuan/ton, while the price of columnar coal activated carbon with an iodine value of around 1000 yuan/ton is between 8200-9500 yuan/ton. The supply of coconut shells in Southeast Asia is tight, but the impact of new maritime regulations (dangerous goods declaration) has weakened, and the high price of imported carbonized materials has fallen, easing cost pressure.
The arrival of coconut shells in Southeast Asia is stable, the price of carbonized materials is weak, and costs have fallen. Manufacturers are operating normally in terms of supply and demand, while water treatment and exhaust gas demand are average. The willingness to stock up is weak, and the shipping cost of dangerous goods by sea is stable without additional charges.
Prediction: Domestic coconut shell activated carbon transactions fell short of expectations, coupled with a high-level decline in raw materials, it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.