1、 Price trend
As of August 10th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in the market was 8383.33 yuan/ton, up 0.40% month on month. Reviewing the trend of the market, after completing a round of price increase on August 3rd and 4th, the price fluctuated and consolidated at the 8350 yuan/ton platform for a long time, and the long short game entered an equilibrium state.
From the perspective of the moving average system and the moving average index, the 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average upwards, and the moving average turns from negative to positive, releasing a short-term upward signal. The percentile data shows that the price positions of 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, and 60 days are all running at high levels, the 90 day position is in the middle, and the annual position is in the middle and low levels.
Analysts believe that short-term prices have reached a near two month cycle high, but compared to the historical range of the whole year, the current price has not reached the historical extreme position. This round of rise is more of a technical repair after a sideways trend, rather than a significant upward trend.
2、 Driving factor analysis
1. Upstream raw material support: Strong upward trend in propylene prices
As of August 11th, the benchmark price of propylene was 8161.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.94% compared to the beginning of this month (7927.67 yuan/ton). As the core upstream raw material of acrylic acid, the price increase of propylene directly pushes up the production cost of acrylic acid, providing support for the price of acrylic acid.
2. Downstream demand expectation: marginal improvement in butyl acrylate
Butyl acrylate is the main downstream product of acrylic acid. If the demand in downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, textiles, etc. recovers, it will drive the enthusiasm for acrylic acid procurement. Combining the logic of the industrial chain, in the transmission chain of propylene acrylic acid butyl acrylate, the upstream propylene price increase and downstream demand expectation repair jointly promote the narrow upward trend of acrylic acid prices.
3. Short term supply-demand balance: Stable inventory and operating rate
From August 4th to August 9th, the price remained stable, and the market supply and demand were in a “weak balance”: production enterprises had stable operating rates, downstream essential procurement was the main focus, and there was no obvious inventory backlog or supply shortage. The slight price increase on August 10th may be due to some companies’ exploratory price adjustments and downstream stage restocking.
4、 Future prospects
Short term: Supported by the rise in propylene prices, the golden cross of the moving average (above the 10th and below the 20th), and downstream replenishment expectations, acrylic acid prices may continue to rise narrowly. Attention should be paid to the actual purchasing power of downstream and the sustainability of propylene prices.
Mid term: If the price of propylene remains strong and downstream demand (such as butyl acrylate) further recovers, acrylic acid is expected to exceed 8400 yuan/ton; If downstream demand falls short of expectations, prices may fluctuate around 8350 yuan/ton.

From August 3rd to 7th, the domestic aggregated MDI market saw a slight increase, with an average price of 17866 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On August 7th, the average price was 18066 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.12% during the week and a year-on-year increase of 14.35%. During the week, there were frequent reports of major factory maintenance, and under the expectation of tight supply, factory sources were tight and prices remained firm. Intermediaries saw a slight increase, market inquiries increased, and small orders were the main focus of transactions. Under the supply-demand game, the center of gravity for aggregated MDI transactions shifted slightly upward.
Supply side: The MDI plant with a production capacity of 80000 tons per year in Tosa, Japan, will be shut down for maintenance at the end of July, with a duration of approximately one month. The 200000 ton/year MDI plant in Tosa, Japan is scheduled to start shutdown and maintenance in early September, with a duration of about 45 days. The 1.1 million tons/year MDI plant in Wanhua Yantai Industrial Park will be shut down for maintenance starting from August 10, 2026, with an estimated maintenance period of about 45 days.
Cost aspect: The price center of the pure benzene market has fallen, and the foundation continues to strengthen; With the expected increase in the resumption of cross-strait navigation, the tight situation of crude oil supply is expected to gradually ease, and crude oil prices are expected to decline. The cost support for pure benzene has weakened, and recently, domestic early shutdown and maintenance facilities have gradually returned, which is expected to gradually ease the tight supply situation and further promote the decline of pure benzene prices.
Demand side: Downstream demand inquiries are generally average, with small orders being the main focus after price increases, resulting in insufficient demand support.
Future forecast: There is an expectation of tight supply in the aggregated MDI market, and factories’ willingness to raise prices is not reduced. However, the demand side support is weak, and it is expected that the resistance to pushing up the aggregated MDI market will increase in the short term. We will closely monitor market supply and demand as well as changes in the news side.

The price trend of acetic acid in July first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the average market price was 3223.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month when the acetic acid price was 3063.33 yuan/ton, with a 5.22% increase during the month.
The acetic acid market was generally strong in July. In the first half of the month, the on-site acetic acid plant underwent centralized maintenance, the market supply tightened, and enterprises showed a strong intention to rise, resulting in a continuous increase in acetic acid prices; In the second half of the month, with the restoration of some maintenance facilities, the expected supply of acetic acid will increase. At the same time, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and more follow-up is needed. The atmosphere in the venue has weakened, and the focus of acetic acid transactions has shifted downwards. However, due to the lack of significant improvement in acetic acid production rate, acetic acid in some areas will continue to operate at a high price.
The methanol market fluctuated within a range in July. As of July 31st, the average market price was 2627 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31% compared to the beginning of the month price of 2593 yuan/ton. Driven by geopolitical conflicts and domestic equipment maintenance, the methanol market has a strong intention to rise, but downstream traditional consumption demand is not good during the off-season, and market mentality games limit methanol growth. The long-term support of raw material methanol for acetic acid is insufficient, and the cost benefits are limited.
Market forecast: Analysts believe that with the recovery of acetic acid plants in the later stage, market supply expectations will increase, while downstream demand is unlikely to improve in the short term, and fundamental supply will weaken. It is expected that the acetic acid market will weaken and consolidate in August, and specific attention will be paid to the restart of plants and downstream follow-up.

Since late July, the domestic natural rubber market has been fluctuating and weakening. On the one hand, demand during the off-season is weak, and on the other hand, weather disturbances in production areas have provided bottom support for natural rubber. As a result, natural rubber prices have fallen, but the extent of the decline is limited. The center of gravity of natural rubber prices continues to shift downwards. As of July 31st, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16483 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.64% from 16758 yuan/ton on July 21st. ​
In late July, domestic production areas continued to experience heavy rainfall and cloudy conditions, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of effective rubber cutting days. The efficiency of glue outflow was low, and the monthly output of domestically produced latex remained low, making it difficult to form an effective supply to the domestic spot market in the short term and further amplifying the domestic market’s dependence on overseas sources of goods.
In late July, frequent rainfall in Southeast Asia disrupted rubber cutting, delaying the pace of overseas new rubber market launches and temporarily easing domestic inventory pressure. As a result, Qingdao Port’s inventory increased slightly. Data shows that as of July 26, 2026, the total inventory of bonded and general trade Tianjiao in Qingdao area was 668100 tons, an increase of 0.1% compared to the previous month.
The tire industry has entered the traditional off-season for maintenance, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate continues to decline. In late July, the operating rate of all steel tires in Shandong region was 62%, and the operating rate of semi steel tires nationwide was 58%. The inventory days of finished products in tire enterprises exceeded 40 days, and the pace of terminal destocking was slow. The willingness of enterprises to replenish raw materials was low, and the mode of on-demand procurement for essential needs was maintained. ​
Market forecast:
From a technical perspective, in mid to late June 2026, the price will drop below the 10 day and 20 day moving averages, indicating a formal reversal in trend. The current price is running below various moving averages, and the continuous downward trend of the 10 day and 20 day moving averages constitutes strong pressure, with the moving averages showing a bearish trend. Short term oversold rebounds are easily suppressed by moving averages, and the rebound space is limited; If there is no increase in volume to break through the 20 day moving average, the weak pattern will be difficult to reverse. The trend in technical form has turned bearish, and there is a high probability of maintaining a weak oscillation in the short term. The effectiveness of the support below needs to be continuously verified. ​
Fundamentally speaking, natural rubber maintains a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The maintenance of tire enterprises will continue in early August, and there is currently no obvious repair power on the demand side. Rubber prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. The core of the medium to long term market depends on the marginal changes in supply and demand. On the one hand, it tracks the weather trends in Southeast Asian production areas and verifies the expected supply contraction caused by El Ni ñ o drought; On the other hand, closely monitor the pace of downstream tire resumption and the recovery strength of the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season.

In the second half of July, the dichloromethane market as a whole shifted from a “sharp rise” to a narrow range of stable and strong fluctuations, with a convergence of volatility. Manufacturers still have the willingness to raise prices, but the follow-up of transactions has slowed down significantly. As of July 30th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2220 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.1% compared to the middle of the month.
Core driver analysis
Cost side: support phased, marginal weakening
Geopolitical events drive market sentiment, international oil prices fluctuate, putting pressure on high levels of methanol, making it difficult for spot prices to continue to rise. After imports are cashed in at the port, port inventories have rebounded, and peak season sentiment has cooled down. Currently, the focus of methanol is shifting downwards; Liquid chlorine has shown a strong upward trend, rising from -150 yuan/ton in mid month to 300-500 yuan/ton. On the cost side, it can only establish a price bottom for the dichloromethane market and cannot drive a significant price surge.
Supply side: high production capacity, regional differentiation, overall supply not lacking
The comprehensive construction of the industry remains at a medium to high level of 78% -80%, with no large-scale centralized maintenance; The main equipment in East China is stable, while the load in Southwest China has rebounded. Some equipment in North China has low load, and regional price differences exist but the total amount is loose; Due to the low inventory in the overlapping industry, it is difficult to experience a deep decline, but it is also difficult to form a sustained supply gap.
Demand side: Traditional off-season, only refrigerant is needed to support the bottom
The traditional off-season effect will continue, with weak demand for traditional solvents such as high-temperature coatings, adhesives, and pharmaceutical pesticide intermediates in July. Downstream demand for small orders is high, and long orders are not locked in; R32 refrigerant is the most stable item, providing bottom line demand for stocking and export orders during peak season of air conditioning, sealing off the potential for a sharp decline, but not enough to drive the entire industry chain to actively replenish inventory; The export window generally follows the demand for overseas refrigerants, and there was no significant increase beyond expectations in July.
Market forecast:
The downward shift of the methanol center of gravity on the cost side weakens the support of raw materials, and demand is in the traditional off-season. Downstream solvents such as coatings, pharmaceuticals, and pesticides lack active replenishment power, and only refrigerants are needed to support the bottom. There is a lack of sustained volume growth driven by favorable factors, making it difficult for prices to further increase significantly; Combined with the industry maintaining a medium to high level of production and overall loose supply, it is difficult to form a sustained gap in the supply side, and manufacturers continue to pull up without transaction cooperation. The high price of liquid chlorine has solidified the bottom line of costs; The overall inventory pressure in the industry is not high, and factories still have the willingness to raise prices; R32 refrigerant matching requires stability and can seal deep drop space, with a low probability of significant downward exploration.
It is expected that the short-term dichloromethane market will likely maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, stable to strong operation, and limited upward elasticity.