LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 8366 yuan/ton on August 17th and 8508 yuan/ton on August 21st, an increase of 1.69%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10416 yuan/ton on August 17th and 10666 yuan/ton on August 21st, an increase of 2.40%. HDPE (5000S) had an average price of 10512 yuan/ton on August 17th and 10575 yuan/ton on August 21st, an increase of 0.59%.
Crude oil has risen due to geopolitical factors, and the cost of producing polyethylene from oil has increased, providing upward support for spot prices. Coal production costs remain stable, petrochemical profits recover, and there is a strong willingness to raise prices.
Multiple sets of equipment in China are undergoing centralized maintenance, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and a phased contraction of domestic supply. Some brands are experiencing a shortage of spot goods. Petrochemical and social inventory remain at a moderate level without significant accumulation, which provides some protection for prices. As the maintenance equipment restarts one after another, production will return in the later stage, and supply pressure will reappear.
The market is in a transitional stage from off-season to peak season, with strong expectations but weak actual fulfillment. The agricultural film is gradually entering the production cycle, and the production of greenhouse film is slowly increasing. However, downstream demand is mostly for immediate use and harvesting, and large-scale stock replenishment has not yet emerged. The overall downstream orders for packaging, hollow materials, and pipes are flat, with low production levels and a lack of new orders to drive growth.
Short term costs and maintenance provide support, but there is insufficient demand follow-up, and it is expected that polyethylene will be under pressure due to oscillation.

1、 Price trend
As of August 19th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China is 6433 yuan/ton, with mainstream production in Shandong at 5956-6600 yuan/ton and Shenmu Rich Oil at 5956 yuan/ton. The high price area in East China is returning to below 7800 yuan, with a shortage of large orders and a predominance of small orders for urgent needs. High end quotations have price but no market.
2、 Market analysis
Market aspect: Plant start-up: The overall start-up rate of domestic cyclohexane plants is 62-66%, and social inventory is above average. Supply characteristics: price increases are driven by costs and supported by suppliers, not due to stock shortages; The factory inventory is above average and there are few large orders. Traders generally offer discounts for shipments, and the supply side has limited upward price elasticity.
In terms of cost, pure benzene from Sinopec has been listed for three consecutive increases in mid August, with a cumulative increase of+650 to 8000 yuan/ton, and spot prices in East China ranging from 8180 to 8300 yuan/ton; The commercial inventory of Jiangsu ports has dropped to 29000 tons (month on month -27.5%, year-on-year -79.86%), with historical low destocking, marginal support for aromatics from oil blending/disproportionation profits, crude oil: US Iran conflict+Hormuz navigation concerns, WTI returning to 80+, oil distribution 91+US dollars/barrel, naphtha pure benzene cyclohexane cost chain moving up, and hydrogenated benzene 6275 yuan/ton synchronously strong.
Downstream demand: The production of caprolactam industry is about 68%, and the transaction volume of East China liquid is 12100 yuan/ton (although the cost has increased, the downstream PA6 production is about 64%, making it difficult to transmit high prices, and only low inventory raw materials are needed for replenishment). Adipic acid/cyclohexanone: The production of adipic acid industry is about 64%, and it has been pushed up by pure benzene to 8100-8300 yuan/ton, but the factory’s theoretical loss is over 1000 yuan, downstream PBAT production is only 20%, and PA66 is less than 50%, making it weak to catch up with high prices; The cyclohexanone plant is operating at 70-75% capacity, with a slight increase in the horizontal trend.
On the supply side, price increases are driven by cost push and supported by stockholders, rather than stock shortages. The factory inventory is above average and there are few large orders. Traders generally offer discounts for shipments, and the supply side has limited upward price elasticity.
3、 Future forecast
Cyclohexane analysts believe that due to the extremely low inventory of pure benzene ports and the lingering geopolitical premium of crude oil, cyclohexane is prone to rise but difficult to fall. The benchmark price is seen as 6500-6900 yuan/ton, and the Shandong ex factory price range of 6200-6600 yuan/ton is relatively strong; If pure benzene rises and falls back, cyclohexane will stop rising and remain sideways, making it difficult to rise independently.

Since August, domestic styrene butadiene rubber has rebounded and fluctuated upwards. As of August 18th, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the East China market was 14650 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.99% from 13441 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of the 18th, Sinopec has continuously raised its ex factory price by a cumulative amount of 800 yuan/ton.
The tense situation in the Middle East has pushed up international crude oil prices, causing a significant increase in upstream butadiene prices and a consolidation of high styrene prices, resulting in rising production costs for styrene butadiene. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 18th, the price of butadiene was 11733 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.14% from 10066 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of August 18th, the price of styrene was 8860 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.55% from 8725 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The production of styrene butadiene rubber industry remains at a high level of 70% -77%. Shenhua Chemical plans to carry out maintenance from late August to early September. Export orders are still acceptable, but factory inventory pressure is not high, and the impact of import sources is limited.
The demand side is still in the traditional off-season, and tire companies have slightly rebounded in production. However, the recovery of the terminal market is limited, and downstream consumers are resistant to high priced raw materials. Multi dimensional on-demand procurement is being held, and large-scale inventory replenishment has not yet been initiated. The demand side has not formed an active upward momentum. As of August 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 64.32%, while the operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.01%.
Market forecast: In the short term, the styrene butadiene rubber market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Butadiene provides cost support and maintenance brings supply disruptions, but downstream lacks large-scale replenishment. If butadiene rises and falls, there is a risk of a pullback in styrene butadiene. Pay attention to the downstream demand fulfillment during the peak season of Jinjiu in September. If tire replenishment and production scheduling go smoothly, there will be some price support. In the later stage, we will focus on factors such as international crude oil and butadiene trends, the pace of equipment resumption, and changes in tire production.

On August 17, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in Shandong participated at 13000 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as the price on August 1. Compared with July 1 (reference organic silicon DMC price of 14700 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 1700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.56%.
1、 Price market description
From the commodity market analysis system, it can be seen that in July, the price center of organic silicon DMC in Shandong region of China continued to move towards a low level. Due to the weak supply and demand, the support in the market was weak, and the market price of organic silicon DMC fell below the 14000 mark and then dropped to 13000 yuan/ton. Entering August, the overall market for organic silicon DMC in Shandong has stopped falling and stabilized, and the market has entered a period of consolidation and repair. The on-site price adjustment is limited, and the market performance is relatively calm. As of August 17th, the domestic market price reference for organic silicon DMC is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton.
2、 Fundamental analysis
On the supply side: Currently, there is still a situation of production reduction and production reduction in the organic silicon DMC market, and overall production is stable with a slight decrease. The production rate may narrow, and the tightening state of the supply side still exists. The shipment rhythm in the spot market is mild, and the supply side provides certain support to the market.
On the demand side: Currently, the downstream of organic silicon DMC mainly digests early-stage raw materials, and some users maintain a focus on essential purchases. The overall purchasing performance of downstream is cautious, and the stocking pace has slowed down. However, with the supply gap caused by tightening supply, the demand side market may experience a period of increased volume, giving the market a stable and strong operating momentum.
In terms of cost: Currently, the market situation for the cost of organic silicon DMC raw material metal silicon # 421 is showing a stable, moderate, and narrow upward trend, providing some bottoming support to the market on the cost side.
3、 Future forecast
At present, although the Shandong organic silicon DMC market is in a consolidation stage and the downstream demand transmission has not improved significantly due to supply contraction, there are certain favorable conditions overall in the market, and the bottom support of the market has been strengthened. Therefore, organic silicon DMC data analysts predict that in the short term, the market prices of Shandong organic silicon DMC will mainly remain stable with a strong trend, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

In the first half of August, the overall dichloromethane market showed a pattern of continuous decline and weak operation. The market lacks substantial positive support, and trading is mainly focused on replenishing stocks for essential needs, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. As of August 14th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 1945 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.39% from the beginning of the month.
Core driver analysis
Supply side: High operating capacity, sufficient supply of goods
The current industry operating load remains around 80%, and the overall performance of the supply side is loose. During the cycle, the amount of device recovery exceeds the amount of loss, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate continues to rise. Some companies continue to accumulate inventory, and inventory pressure is evident. Although the company has suffered severe losses, there have been no obvious signs of load reduction in the near future.
On the demand side: weak follow-up, prioritizing urgent needs
The demand performance of downstream terminal industries is poor, and the overall demand for traders and terminal procurement is weak. On site trading is mainly based on small orders for essential needs, lacking sustained large-scale procurement, which has limited support for prices. The strong bearish sentiment in the industry further suppresses purchasing intentions.
Cost side: High pressure, conduction failure
Raw material methanol has stabilized and rebounded, with methanol and liquid chlorine prices operating at medium to high levels. However, dichloromethane continues to decline unilaterally. Due to greater pressure from oversupply, high costs have not been effectively transmitted to dichloromethane prices, resulting in heavy cost pressure for methane chloride enterprises.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the fundamental pattern of oversupply of dichloromethane is difficult to reverse. On the supply side, there has not been a large-scale reduction in inventory in the high opening industry, and there is still accumulated pressure on inventory. In the context of some companies’ losses, if the losses continue to increase, it is not ruled out that passive load reduction may occur in the later stage, which is the main upward variable in the market. On the demand side, downstream demand is still dominated by rigid small orders. Without the concentrated release of refrigerant and export orders, it is difficult to form sustained buying support. The high operation of methanol and liquid chlorine on the cost side has formed a bottom support for spot prices, compressing the potential for significant deep declines.
It is expected that the short-term dichloromethane market will mainly fluctuate at a low level, and it is not ruled out that inertia will slightly bottom out. Under the catalysis of oversold signals, there is a technical opportunity for recovery and rebound. However, the rebound height is limited and belongs to oversold recovery, making it difficult to reverse the medium-term weak pattern. The focus is on manufacturer quotation adjustment, device maintenance and load reduction, and downstream centralized replenishment signals.