In mid September, the domestic dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market rose to a new high in nearly four years, with a peak increase of 52.03% compared to the beginning of the year. Subsequently, there was a high-level consolidation, and the market quickly weakened at the end of the month. The pessimistic sentiment in the market spread, and the price center shifted significantly downwards. As of September 28th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 6233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.43% from mid month and an increase of 25.08% from the beginning of the month.
Driving factors for decline:
On the supply side, the industry’s production has increased by 1.94 percentage points compared to the first ten days, and the spot market has shifted from tight to loose.
On the demand side, as export orders enter the final stage of delivery, the diversion effect on domestic spot goods weakens; Downstream domestic trade is strongly resistant to the high prices that quickly rose in the early stage. The PC and ethyl ester industries have experienced varying degrees of decline due to high costs, and there is a lack of willingness to stock up before the holiday. Therefore, many parties are holding small orders for essential purchases.
Cost side: Due to the decrease in international crude oil and propylene prices, as well as the resumption of operation of some facilities, the supply of raw material propylene oxide has become loose, resulting in continued weak prices and insufficient support for DMC costs.
Market forecast: October may continue the weak bottoming out pattern
Taking into account current factors, the pressure on the supply side continues, cost support is weak, improvement on the demand side is limited, and the technical aspect is bearish. It is expected that the overall pressure on the dimethyl carbonate market will continue to decline in October, but the space for deep decline may be limited.

Entering late September, the domestic PP market is consolidating at a high level, with prices of various grades of products fluctuating. As of September 24th, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing was quoted at 9883.330 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.56% compared to the beginning of the month.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
The situation in the Middle East was turbulent in the first half of September, and the ceasefire agreement was difficult to implement, which pushed up international crude oil prices. In recent days, Iranian President visited the United States to attend a meeting, and US President Trump publicly expressed his willingness to meet with Iranian President. At the same time, Iran has conveyed clear conditions to the mediator to restart negotiations, marking a substantial diplomatic breakthrough signal in the ongoing US Iran confrontation. The focus of market trading has shifted from “supply interruption panic” to “situation cooling and supply recovery”. The shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have decreased, and market concerns about international crude oil supply have eased. Geopolitical premiums have been reduced, and PP’s remote cost value has fallen at a high level. At the same time, propylene significantly followed the decline, and overall, the support for PP from the raw material side weakened in late September.
Supply side:
In late September, domestic PP enterprises experienced a combination of maintenance and restart, with an overall operating rate of nearly 70%, which was more stable than the previous period. The future supply changes are limited. The current weekly average production is still around 700000 tons, and the inventory level is relatively low at around 500000 tons. Overall, the slow recovery of supply and low inventory levels have provided some support for spot prices, and the supply side’s support for spot prices is still acceptable.
In terms of demand:
The current consumption of polypropylene is in the traditional peak season, and demand has gradually emerged from the off-season level since the beginning of the month, with downstream markets in the industry slowly following suit. However, due to the off-season situation on the cost side in the early stage, coupled with the fact that PP spot prices have risen to a high level, buyers’ acceptance of high priced goods is insufficient, and the overall trading atmosphere is cautious. The terminal enterprise strategy tends to be on-demand, with mostly scattered small orders and poor enthusiasm for building warehouses on site, resulting in generally low inventory levels. The operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises has slightly improved, with downstream loads approaching 47%, and overall demand side support for PP.
Future forecast
In late September, the domestic PP market prices stabilized at a high level. From a fundamental perspective, the cost side has experienced a high decline, while the demand side has seen a moderate increase in orders in the early stages. Recently, pre holiday stocking has basically ended, and downstream operations have returned to caution. PP analysts believe that the current PP market supply and demand are weak, coupled with the drag of cost value rebound, there may still be downward pressure in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the industry production situation in October and the situation in the Middle East, the United States, and Iran.

1、 Price trend
As of September 22, the reference average price of urea market in Shandong Province, China was 1767 yuan/ton, which was 1.94% lower than the reference average price of 1802 yuan/ton on September 16.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
Recently, the domestic urea market has been weak and declining. The urea market is oversupplied. The impact of the release of urea export quotas has weakened. As of September 22, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1700-1770 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1740-1780 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1700-1750 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1680-1740 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1780-1800 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, the urea market is currently well supplied, and inventory remains high. The equipment may gradually resume production in the later stage. In terms of demand, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have insufficient purchasing enthusiasm, agricultural fertilizer preparation has not yet accelerated, and there is no significant improvement on the demand side.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the domestic urea market has been declining recently. Autumn fertilizer preparation is approaching, but the demand for urea has not yet been released, resulting in a high market inventory. It is expected that domestic urea prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend
On September 20th, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was 1250 yuan/ton, which was 4.75% higher than the average market price of 1193 yuan/ton on September 14th.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate continues to rise strongly, while the market price of coking grade ammonium sulfate has slightly adjusted. The transition period for ammonium sulfate method testing has ended this week, and the current peak season for particle demand has led to an increase in downstream procurement demand. The international demand for ammonium sulfate is improving, with support from the demand side and good market trading.
market situation
As of September 20th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1000 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1200-1280 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the price trend of ammonium sulfate continues to rise in recent days. At present, there is support on the demand side, and market transactions are still acceptable. It is expected that the market price of ammonium sulfate will remain stable and rise in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to policy changes.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 9550 yuan/ton on September 14th and 9491 yuan/ton on September 18th, a decrease of 0.61%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 12200 yuan/ton on September 14th and 12266 yuan/ton on September 18th, an increase of 0.55%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on September 14th was 11100 yuan/ton, and on September 18th it was 10800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.70%.
In September, polyethylene maintenance facilities resumed production one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has increased. There are still plans to resume production of facilities in the future, and coupled with the expectation of new production capacity, supply pressure will gradually accumulate, and the reality of tight balance will shift towards a bearish expectation.
The overall downstream demand is weak, and only the demand for thin films has certain resilience. The peak season for agricultural film and wire drawing did not meet expectations, and the market maintained on-demand procurement.
Recently, crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, with a slight decline in oil prices and weakened cost support. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike has pushed up the US dollar, suppressing the center of gravity of commodity prices and increasing market volatility.
Short term: Polyethylene mainly oscillates at high levels. Low inventory levels are difficult to sustain a deep decline, but the resumption of production and high prices have limited room for sustained growth in demand.