On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe, the world’s fourth largest lithium producer, suddenly announced an immediate and comprehensive suspension of lithium raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, without setting a clear lifting period, only on the premise that domestic mining enterprises complete localized processing and transformation to resume exports. The sudden implementation of this policy has disrupted the original rhythm of the global lithium supply chain, and as the second largest importer of lithium mines in China, the lithium carbonate market has been the first to be impacted. According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of lithium carbonate rose sharply the next day, with a benchmark price of 172000 yuan/ton for battery grade lithium carbonate from Shengyi Society, an increase of 6.17% from the previous day.
Zimbabwe, as the core production area of lithium resources in Africa, is the largest exporter of lithium mines in Africa. In 2025, the country’s lithium concentrate production is equivalent to 150000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, accounting for 12% of the global lithium supply. More than 90% of the export volume flows to China, making it the second largest source of lithium concentrate imports for China, second only to Australia. In 2025, China imported a total of 7.751 million tons of lithium concentrate, of which 1.204 million tons were imported from Zimbabwe, accounting for 15.5%.
Prohibiting the impact of export cycles on the price of lithium carbonate
Short term: emotion driven+supply contraction, price pulse like rise
The short-term impact of this ban mainly comes from the dual effects of unexpected emotions and immediate supply contraction, coupled with limited domestic inventory buffer, which will directly drive up the price of lithium carbonate. From the supply side perspective, the ban covers goods in transit that have already been shipped, causing a complete interruption of individual trading sources for traders. Domestic small and medium-sized lithium salt factories that rely on traders for procurement will face a shortage of raw materials and be forced to reduce production.
The catalytic effect on the emotional side is more significant. The market originally expected Zimbabwe to implement a ban as planned in 2027, and even if it accelerates, it will retain a buffer period. However, the “one size fits all” policy that came into effect immediately completely reversed the market’s expectation of loose lithium ore supply, triggering reluctance and hoarding behavior in the futures and spot markets.
Based on the current market trend, it is predicted that the spot price of battery grade lithium carbonate will rise in the short term, but there will not be an extreme surge in 2022. After all, the background of overcapacity in the domestic mid to low end market remains unchanged, and the core supply of top enterprises has not been affected.
Mid term: Gap gradually hedged, prices return to fundamentals
With the cooling of market sentiment and the gradual implementation of supply side hedging factors, the actual impact of Zimbabwe’s export ban will be significantly weakened, and the price of lithium carbonate will gradually return to the supply and demand fundamentals, showing a trend of “rising, falling, and fluctuating”.
Other supply sources quickly fill the gap. As the largest source of lithium concentrate imports for China, Australia is expected to increase its lithium concentrate production capacity by 200000 tons in 2026, which can fill the gap in supply for Zimbabwean traders; At the same time, in December 2025, China imported a total of 189000 tons of lithium concentrate from Nigeria and South Africa, accounting for 20% of the total import volume for that month, which can quickly replace Zimbabwe’s bulk supply. In addition, the production capacity of lithium extraction from salt lakes and lithium mica in China continues to climb, and there will still be more than 150000 tons of new production capacity released in 2026, which can further hedge against fluctuations in imported raw materials.

After the market sentiment subsides, the price of lithium carbonate will gradually fall back, showing an overall range oscillation pattern, and it is difficult to see a sustained unilateral upward trend.
Long term: Supply chain restructuring, accelerated increase in industry concentration
The export ban imposed by Zimbabwe is not a policy choice of a single country, but a microcosm of the entire African continent’s efforts to promote the localization and appreciation of mineral resources. For a long time, most African countries have been stuck in the low-end industrial chain of “mining exporting primary raw materials”, and the added value of strategic resources such as lithium and cobalt has been seriously lost. Zimbabwe’s acceleration of policies this time is essentially a competition for the voice of the lithium industry chain, transforming from a “raw material supplier” to a “processing producer”. This trend will reconstruct the global lithium supply chain pattern in the long run.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that this incident will strengthen the relatively strong pattern of the lithium carbonate market in the short term, and the upward space of the market driven by emotions will be opened up. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has increased after the Spring Festival. On February 25th, the average market price of caustic soda was 634 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.93% compared to the previous trading day. On February 24th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 785 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 43.93% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 31.27% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, caustic soda is on the rise. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 600-670 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Zhejiang region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 850-970 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 2050-2150 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. Returning after the Spring Festival, some traders and downstream urgently need to replenish their stocks. The rise in liquid chlorine prices has driven the recovery of chlor alkali profits, and some caustic soda enterprises have lower inventories, resulting in an increase in caustic soda prices. However, with the completion of downstream enterprise replenishment, the overall upward space for caustic soda is limited.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been on the rise, and after the holiday, the price of Shandong liquid caustic soda has been affected by the short-term replenishment of essential needs. However, with the completion of inventory replenishment, it is expected that caustic soda will continue to maintain a stable operation in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 11th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 3940 yuan/ton. Currently, there is insufficient demand in the DMF market, and downstream market shipments are slow approaching the Spring Festival. Factories are about to take a holiday, and the DMF market is mainly operating steadily.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, the DMF market is mainly operating steadily, with overall overcapacity in the market. The focus of negotiations is stable, but there is insufficient motivation for price increases.
Regarding methanol: In the upstream methanol market, traditional downstream demand is insufficient, inventory is running at high levels, and prices are mainly under pressure.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will mainly remain stable, with insufficient downstream demand and narrow price fluctuations.

Product Name: Isopropanol
Latest price: On February 10th, the average market price was 5650 yuan/ton.
Analysis points: The isopropanol market is currently stable today. At present, the market situation on the exchange is light, and the Spring Festival holiday is approaching. Downstream terminal factories are gradually shutting down, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange is quiet. Actual transactions are cautious. It is expected that the isopropanol market will maintain stable operation in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

In early February, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell, with most spot prices of various grades being lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 9th, the average price of ABS sample products was 9187.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -1.74% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since February, the load of the domestic ABS industry has remained stable with small fluctuations, with an overall slight decrease within the range. The Tianjin Dagu plant has been shut down to carry out blowing tasks, and the overall operating level of the industry has been reduced by about 3% to 64%, with an average weekly output of less than 140000 tons. The inventory position of aggregation enterprises continues to decline at around 190000 tons, and the supply on site remains tightly balanced. Overall, the stage of supply and demand in the ABS market is not significant, and the supply side has increased its support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: Within the first ten days of February, the upstream three materials market of ABS rebounded after rising, which weakened the impact on the cost side of ABS. Acrylonitrile rose upstream at the beginning of the month, but the new acrylonitrile plant of Yulong Petrochemical was put into operation, resulting in an increase in supply to the northern market. As the Spring Festival approaches, spot buying has weakened, and the acrylonitrile market has significantly fallen after rising.
The butadiene market is showing a high-level downward trend. Last month, the cost side crude oil prices were relatively high, strengthening bottom support. As the Spring Festival approaches and downstream stocking ends before the holiday, the support for essential needs weakens. In addition, the industry load remained strong during the Spring Festival period, and the expected accumulation of inventory in the future led to a weak consolidation of the market due to the loose supply and demand pattern. However, the low inventory level in the early stage and the linkage with the external market have formed multiple benefits, and it is expected that the space for a significant decline in styrene prices is limited.
The styrene market also experienced a high-level decline. In the early stage, the resumption of work in the domestic industry did not meet expectations, while the maintenance of overseas styrene plants increased. The increase in inquiries and actual transactions for China’s styrene exports further drove the depletion of port inventory. But recently, some devices have returned and the supply side has rebounded. In addition, the situation in the Middle East has gradually exhausted the favorable crude oil prices, and the raw material pure benzene is trading sideways at a high level, lacking further guidance on the fundamentals of styrene. It is expected that the styrene market will continue to consolidate during the Spring Festival period.
On the demand side: In early February, there was no significant increase in consumption in the downstream electrical housing industry of ABS, and the improvement in profitability of end enterprises was limited. As the Spring Festival approaches and pre holiday stocking is basically over, buyers have little willingness to continue reducing their inventory. On exchange trading is gradually entering a bottleneck, but there are still some high chasing orders being executed. The current inventory position of merchants is not high, and the quotes between enterprises and merchants are firm. Overall, the demand side is supporting the ABS market to level off.
Future forecast
Before the holiday, the domestic ABS market was weakly consolidating. The production load of the aggregation plant has remained stable with a slight decrease, and the supply on site has maintained a tight balance. After the rise of costs and materials, they have fallen back. Business analysts believe that the macro level ABS supply-demand imbalance pattern still exists, but the strong momentum of buying orders at low prices at the beginning of the year has eased production and sales pressure. The stocking before the New Year’s Eve has been basically completed, and coupled with the significant increase in the previous period, buyers’ acceptance of prices has declined. It is expected that ABS may enter a calm consolidation market in the future.