On July 13th, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a significant upward trend. As of July 13th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 8600.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.26% compared to the beginning of this month.
On the raw material side, the strong support of high propylene prices is the core driving force behind the rise of epoxy propane in this round. As of July 13th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 8011.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.10% compared to the beginning of this month (7411.00 yuan/ton).
On the supply side, on the 13th, some domestic epoxy propane units continued to reduce load or shut down. On July 13th, the utilization rate of domestic epoxy propane production capacity dropped to 60.17%, a decrease from 62.04% on July 10th. Although some factories in production have experienced narrow inventory accumulation, the inventory of most enterprises is still at a low and controllable level, and the pressure on factory shipments is relatively limited. However, after the weekend market surged significantly, the overall shipping atmosphere has shown signs of weakening.
On the demand side, the downstream polyether market of epoxy propane passively followed the rise. East China Soft Foam Polyether negotiated a reference price of 8600-8800 yuan/ton, Shandong Soft Foam Polyether 8600-8800 yuan/ton, and Hard Foam Polyether also rose by 400-500 yuan/ton. However, downstream enterprises have a significantly low acceptance of high priced raw materials and have gradually reduced their procurement volume, resulting in a cold inquiry atmosphere and weak actual order delivery.
Comprehensive forecast: Analysts believe that high levels of raw material propylene will provide strong support, supply side equipment maintenance and load reduction will continue, and factory inventory will be low, forming bottom support for epoxy propane prices. However, downstream acceptance of high priced raw materials is not high, the procurement pace has slowed down, and the inquiry atmosphere is cold. It is predicted that the epoxy propane market may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. More attention should be paid to the price trend of propylene on the raw material side, the dynamics of plant start-up and shutdown, and the follow-up of downstream new orders.

This week, the demand side continued to be weak and the overall supply was abundant. The domestic acrylonitrile market price fell sharply, and suppliers took active price reduction measures, further accelerating the market downturn. As of July 10th, the ex tank price in the East China market has dropped from 10050 yuan/ton last week to around 9350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7%; The Shandong market has dropped by 700 yuan/ton to the current 9200 yuan/ton for delivery.
Fundamental analysis:
At present, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry remains above 70%. Against the backdrop of overall low demand, the supply performance is relatively abundant. At the same time, the construction of the acrylic fiber industry began to decline again in July, leading to further reduction in overall consumption. Since the beginning of the month, downstream users have maintained a pace of purchasing goods for essential needs, and there is a particularly insufficient demand for spot goods, resulting in poor sales in some areas. In addition, since the second half of June, the production profit of acrylonitrile has been considerable, with the theoretical profit of a single product exceeding 1000 yuan/ton, which has also stimulated the timely recovery of units such as Korur and Sinochem Quanzhou, as well as the delayed maintenance of the Jinfa unit in Liaoning.
The combination of low cost and low demand has led to a gradual increase in bearish sentiment in the acrylonitrile market, and buying is also in a wait-and-see situation, which has prompted suppliers to take active price reduction measures. The rapid decline in acrylonitrile prices has also caused buying to stagnate, further accelerating the market downturn.
However, at the beginning of this market downturn, the inventory of acrylonitrile industry remained at a low level, so even though there has been some accumulation of inventory recently, the overall inventory is still controllable. Moreover, the recent strong performance of raw material propylene prices has once again highlighted cost pressures. Acrylonitrile prices have fallen to near the marginal cost line, and suppliers’ willingness to continue lowering prices in the future will be reduced. In addition, based on the comparison between spot prices and contract settlement expectations, the advantage of spot prices has become prominent, attracting some buyers to gradually follow up and replenish. Therefore, the trading atmosphere in the spot market has significantly improved in the past two days.
Market forecast: The fluctuation direction of propylene prices will continue to support the price of acrylonitrile, but the fundamentals are still difficult to be optimistic. The overall demand off-season is expected to continue until around mid August, and new production capacity will be put on the agenda again in the later period, including 660000 tons of Zhejiang Petrochemical and 130000 tons of new facilities from Sinopec. Therefore, oversupply will continue to envelop the acrylonitrile market. In the future, apart from external news and supply variables, acrylonitrile prices may fluctuate near the cost line for a long time again.

Isooctanol prices rebound and rise
On July 8th, the price of isooctanol was 6766.67 yuan/ton, which rebounded from the price of 6733.33 yuan/ton on July 7th, with an increase of 0.50%. On July 8th, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded. Mainstream isooctanol manufacturers raised their prices, and the isooctanol market stopped falling and rose.
The escalation of geopolitical games in the Middle East
On July 7th local time, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury Department officially revoked the exemption permit for Iran’s oil sales sanctions, terminated the previously relaxed cross-border sales policy for Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products, and fully restarted relevant sanctions. The core cause of the policy shift is the recent attack on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The US has determined that Iran’s actions violate the temporary consensus between the two sides, and therefore urgently tightened energy sanctions against Iran. After the tightening of sanctions was announced, the market was concerned that the temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran would essentially break down, the geopolitical game in the Middle East would escalate, and the international crude oil market would quickly and significantly rise.
Propylene costs rebound and rise
On July 8th, the propylene price was 7821 yuan/ton, a decrease followed by an increase of 0.13% compared to the propylene price of 7811 yuan/ton on July 1st. The price of propylene has increased by 2.27% compared to July 6th at 7647.67 yuan/ton. The tightening of US oil sanctions on Iran, the shipping safety crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and the escalation of US Iran confrontation have led to an increase in crude oil prices, which have been transmitted downstream. The rebound in propylene prices has caused an increase in the cost of isooctanol, and the support for its rise has increased.
Future prospects
Analysts believe that on the cost side, the geopolitical game in the Middle East has once again escalated, with crude oil and propylene rebounding and rising, and downstream chemical industries likely to follow suit with crude oil. The cost support for isooctanol has increased. In the future, the geopolitical game in the Middle East has once again escalated, and the cost pressure of isooctanol has increased. Isooctanol has stopped falling and risen, and weak demand has suppressed the upward space of isooctanol. The price of isooctanol is likely to consolidate strongly in the future.

From July 1st to 7th, the domestic BDO price remained at 7716 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 4.54% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.67%. Both the supply and demand sides are showing an incremental trend, and industry players are cautious in their wait-and-see attitude. Trading of essential contract orders and light spot negotiations are underway. The supply and demand negotiation game continues, and the domestic BDO market fluctuates narrowly.
On the supply side, the supply of goods has increased. The supply side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
On the cost side, in terms of calcium carbide, the tight power supply has intensified and the supply has contracted; The concentration of downstream maintenance has weakened, and market demand has recovered to some extent; The market shows a clear shortage of supply, with a rapid increase in calcium carbide prices and inventory consumption. In terms of methanol, the price of methanol has significantly decreased. The raw material calcium carbide market is on the rise, while the methanol market is plummeting, and the impact of BDO cost is mixed.
On the demand side and downstream side, the average performance of terminal demand has led to pressure on supply and demand in multiple downstream industries. The mentality of shipping has driven actual orders to negotiate discounts, dragging down most downstream markets and making it difficult to accept high prices of raw materials. Contract orders continue to follow up, and spot negotiations are sluggish. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future forecast, the raw material calcium carbide will operate strongly, methanol will fluctuate at a low level, and BDO cost pressure will still exist; The downstream PTMEG, PBT, and PU pulp industries have seen an increase in production and demand. Overall, BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market may experience a narrow adjustment.

At the beginning of the week, the price of 50% potassium sulfate was 4106 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the price of 50% potassium sulfate was 4100 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.16%.
This week, the market price of potassium sulfate has been weak, with a factory price of about 4300-4350 yuan/ton for 52% powder/fully water-soluble powder, and a factory price of about 3850-3900 yuan/ton for 50% resource-based potassium sulfate powder upon arrival. Prices have differentiated in some regions due to differences in supply and cost. Supported by the cost of raw materials (potassium chloride, sulfur), the price of potassium sulfate remains high. However, due to the weak demand for downstream compound fertilizers, some processing enterprises are facing cost inversion, and the overall market atmosphere is bleak.
On the demand side: Currently, there is a fertilizer shortage period where summer fertilizer is coming to an end and autumn fertilizer has not been fully launched. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is low, and terminal procurement is carried out as needed. The overall demand is weak, which limits the further rise of potassium sulfate prices.
Prediction: The trading volume of potassium sulfate market is lower than expected, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.