According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall market for mixed xylene will decline from October 14th to 21st, 2024. On October 14th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7% from 5850 yuan/ton on October 21st. The overall decline in the xylene market this cycle has been hindered by the poor performance of the post holiday crude oil market, which has dragged down market sentiment. The overall supply of xylene in the market is relatively loose, and some facilities in Shandong have been put into operation, as well as overall high port inventories. In terms of demand, the downstream market tends to be rigid and weak, which has dragged down market sentiment. Spot market offers continued to decline during the week, and refineries also actively shipped, resulting in a gradual decline in market prices.

Cost wise: As of the 18th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $68.69 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.06 per barrel. The recent trend of crude oil prices has fallen, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; However, the recent decline in US crude oil inventories still provides support for the crude oil market, resulting in a slight decrease in overall crude oil market prices.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotation has overall declined. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of October 21st, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5800-5850 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900-6000 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On October 21st, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7600 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the price on October 14th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of October 18th, the closing price of the xylene market in Asia increased by $10/ton, with a closing price of $823-825/ton FOB Korea and $848-850/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to operate weakly in the near future, with weak cost support. In terms of supply, port inventories in East China have been accumulating recently, while plant construction in Shandong has increased. Refineries have accumulated inventory, which has a negative impact on the market. On the demand side, the trend of refined oil products is weak, and the purchasing intention is biased towards rigid demand. Overall, the recent bearish impact on the spot market is significant, and it is expected that the xylene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP has stopped falling and stabilized

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 18th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9213.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81% from the DOP price of 9288.75 yuan/ton on October 11th last weekend; Compared to October 1st, the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with a 2.50% increase. Plasticizers will be replenished after the holiday, leading to an increase in demand for DOP and a rise in DOP prices. With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. But with the recovery of the economy and the support of demand for plasticizers, the price of plasticizer DOP stabilized after falling.

Downstream demand is expected to rebound

With favorable policies and rising macroeconomic sentiment, coupled with the peak demand season for downstream plastics such as agricultural film, the downstream market is recovering, and the demand for plasticizers in the market is expected to increase.

Raw material costs stabilize after falling

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 18th, the price of isooctanol was 9200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43% from the price of 9333.33 yuan/ton on October 11th last weekend; Compared to October 1st, the price of isooctanol at 8706.67 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with an increase of 5.67%. After the holiday, the replenishment of isooctanol has ended, and the price of isooctanol has fallen from a high level. The macroeconomic environment has rebounded, and demand support still exists. The equipment production of isooctanol manufacturers has increased, and the supply of isooctanol is sufficient. The price of isooctanol has stabilized after stopping the decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 18th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7287.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.35% from the price of 7387.50 yuan/ton on October 11th; Compared to October 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride at 7200 yuan/ton first increased and then decreased, with a rise of 1.22%. After the National Day holiday, the replenishment of inventory ended and the price of phthalic anhydride fell. The production of phthalic anhydride equipment has increased, the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient, and the actual transactions in the phthalic anhydride market are limited. The downward pressure on the phthalic anhydride market still exists, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and stabilized, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has stabilized after falling; In terms of demand, favorable policies have led to an increase in downstream market demand, and expectations for the demand side of the plasticizer market have risen. In the future, raw material prices will decline, plasticizer costs will decrease, and plasticizer DOP prices will decrease; Positive policies have led to an expected increase in demand for plasticizer DOP in the market, an increase in operating load for plasticizer manufacturers, an increase in DOP supply, and a dual increase in supply and demand. The supply and demand in the plasticizer market are relatively balanced, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, there was a slight price correction from October 1st to 13th. On October 13th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7200-7400 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8800-9200 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7900-8100 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost, according to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 13th, the average spot price of PTA in the East China region was 5208 yuan per ton, an increase of over 8.5 percentage points compared to September 14th. However, since the end of the National Day holiday, there has been significant turbulence in the crude oil market, which has further affected the PTA raw material market. Affected by it, PTA prices fluctuated narrowly and cost support was average.

In terms of supply and demand, the production of polyester has slightly increased, and the inventory of enterprises has begun to show an upward trend. This undoubtedly brings greater pressure to the sales of goods in the factory. On the demand side, many downstream enterprises have completed inventory replenishment work ahead of schedule until the end of October, and their current purchasing enthusiasm is not high. At the same time, due to the uncertainty of future market trends, these companies also lack confidence and are more inclined to choose to consume existing inventory rather than blindly make new purchases. This wait-and-see strategy undoubtedly further exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance in the market.

Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the willingness of filament enterprises to ship still exists, and it is expected that the filament market prices will remain stable and fluctuate in the short term. In the game of cost and supply and demand, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of the raw material market and the downstream order placement situation in the future.

After the holiday, the price of plasticizer DOP surged and then fell back

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9238.75 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased compared to the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton on October 1st, with a growth rate of 2.78%. The post holiday economic recovery, coupled with the replenishment of plasticizers after the holiday, has led to an increase in demand for DOP and a rise in DOP prices. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased, leading to an increase in demand for plasticizers; With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, coupled with a slower than expected economic recovery, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. The price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply and then fell back.

Downstream demand is expected to rebound

Positive policies, rising macroeconomic sentiment, downstream market recovery, and expected increase in demand for plasticizers in the market; After the holiday, there was a temporary increase in demand for plasticizers due to restocking.

The cost of raw materials has risen sharply and then fallen back

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the price of isooctanol was 9233.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.05% compared to the price of 8706.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. Economic expectations are expected to rebound, and demand for isooctanol is expected to rebound. In addition, after the holiday, isooctanol stocks will be replenished, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol prices. As the replenishment ends and the economic recovery falls short of expectations, demand is expected to decline, and the high price of isooctanol is expected to drop.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7387.50 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 2.60% compared to the price of 7200 yuan/ton on October 1st. Downstream demand is expected to rebound, with an increase in market inquiries and a shift in the focus of the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, post holiday restocking has led to a volatile rise in phthalic anhydride prices. The price of industrial naphthalene has risen, supported by the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride. The price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has also risen, providing support for the price of neighboring naphthalene phthalic anhydride. The actual transactions in the phthalic anhydride market are limited, and there is still downward pressure on the phthalic anhydride market. The price of phthalic anhydride has fallen from a high level.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, after the National Day holiday, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride surged, and the cost of plasticizer DOP increased; On the demand side, favorable policies have led to an increase in downstream market demand, resulting in higher expectations for the demand side of the plasticizer market. In addition, post holiday restocking has led to an increase in the price of plasticizer DOP. In the future, due to policy influence, the demand for DOP plasticizers in the market is relatively warm in the short term. Whether the policy can bring substantial improvement still needs to be verified. In the medium and long term, the plasticizer market mainly affects prices through supply and demand relationships, and the supply and demand in the plasticizer market are relatively balanced. It is expected that the price of DOP plasticizers will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on September 30th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 11960 yuan/ton. Compared with September 23rd (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 11980 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.17%.

According to the market analysis system of the business community, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the domestic silicon metal # 441 market as a whole showed a slight weakness and decline. The overall performance of downstream demand for silicon metal is average, and the market support provided by the demand side is limited. In some regions, the silicon metal market has narrowly lowered its shipping prices, with the market price of silicon metal # 441 dropping by 50-100 yuan/ton. On September 30th, the price reference for metal silicon # 441 in Huangpu Port area of China was around 11800-11900 yuan/ton, and the price reference for metal silicon # 441 in Kunming area of China was around 12000-12200 yuan/ton.

Regarding construction: Currently, the overall construction rate of the domestic silicon metal market has not adjusted significantly. The overall operating level of metallic silicon in Xinjiang is still relatively high. According to incomplete statistics, the proportion of metallic silicon production capacity in Xinjiang is about 75%, with a weekly output of about 40000 tons (923-929). The weekly operating rate is basically the same as the previous week, maintaining around 82-83%. The weekly production in Yunnan region is around 7700 tons, and the weekly operating rate is basically the same as last week, with a stable operating rate of around 90%. The weekly production of metallic silicon in Sichuan region is around 4600 tons, and the weekly operating rate is around 70%, which is basically the same as the previous week.

In terms of supply and demand: As the National Day holiday approaches, some silicon companies are not willing to lower their prices due to the overall low market prices. In addition, some have executed previous orders, and the pressure on spot supply is still acceptable. In terms of downstream demand, the overall demand for silicon metal in the downstream market is generally boosted, and a small number of stocking users provide weak support to the market.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the mentality of industry players is calm. The overall volatility in the market is limited. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.