1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 130283.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.19% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 1.19%.
LME nickel inventory
Macroscopically, the overall bullish macro environment this week provided important support for the rebound of nickel prices. In June, the US CPI increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while the core PPI only increased by 4.7% year-on-year, significantly lower than market expectations. Additionally, the overall PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.3% month on month, marking the first decline since August last year. The comprehensive cooling of inflation has prompted traders to significantly reduce their expectations for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate hikes in July, with mainstream interest rate expectations now postponed from July to December. The decrease in tail risk of interest rates means that inventory financing costs, US dollar pressure, and forward discount rates have improved synchronously, with nickel prices, which are highly sensitive to the US dollar, showing a particularly strong reaction.
On the supply side: The expectation of tightening on the supply side this week has significantly strengthened, becoming the core driving force behind the rise in nickel prices. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officially stated on July 10th that there is no nationwide quota increase plan for 2026, and the total nickel mining quota for the year is locked in the range of 250 million to 260 million tons, a significant reduction from 379 million tons in 2025. The July revision window only opens special approval for local supporting smelting mines with raw material supply disruptions, with a very small overall incremental scale. Previously, the market generally played a game that the RKAB revision window in July would significantly open quotas, leading to a concentration of short funds entering the market and early pricing easing, which was bearish; After the official statement was made, the bearish investors concentrated on taking profits and leaving the market, coupled with the entry of bargain hunting funds, directly triggering a rise in the market.
On the demand side: The overall demand side remains weak, which significantly constrains the upward potential of nickel prices. Stainless steel, as the largest downstream demand, is estimated to produce 3.5999 million tons of crude steel in July, higher than the same period last year, but the terminal is in the traditional consumption off-season. However, the low prices have slightly released downstream demand for replenishment, and social inventory has not yet continued to accumulate; As of July 16th, the national social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0886 million tons, a decrease of 3.09% month on month, and the inventory level was lower than the same period in previous years. In terms of new energy, the demand for ternary cathode materials has encountered bottlenecks, and the demand for nickel in batteries lacks elasticity. The average price of battery grade nickel sulfate is hovering around 33100 yuan/ton and has not shown any upward trend. The nickel salt process has not kept up with the market trend, and the cost transmission at the smelting end is still not smooth. Overall, there are clear signs of a weakening in the total demand for new and old materials. The off-season production reduction of stainless steel and the bottleneck of new energy demand jointly suppress the upward space for nickel prices.
In summary, macro expectations are fluctuating, and on the supply side, the actual approval scale of quota increments will continue to disrupt market expectations before the deadline for RKAB revision application on July 31st; Even if new quotas are approved, there is a transmission lag between mining and smelting, which cannot be converted into effective supply in the short term. The two major logics of cost side sulfur shortage and Indonesia’s quota tightening are difficult to reverse in the short term. However, the off-season characteristics of stainless steel on the demand side continue, the bottleneck of demand for new energy ternary materials has not been broken, and the global explicit inventory is still at a high level. The drag from the demand side will continue to suppress the upward space. Overall, it is expected that nickel will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

Since July, the Shunding rubber market has ended three consecutive months of decline and once again ushered in an upward trend. As of July 16th, the price of Shunding rubber in the East China region was 13770 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.43% from 12470 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The strengthening of the cost side is the core driving force of this rebound.
At the cost level, the geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran has pushed up international oil prices, and the overseas market for butadiene in Asia continues to rise. Domestic butadiene prices have significantly increased compared to the beginning of the month, significantly raising the production costs of Shunding. Sinopec has continuously increased its factory prices, and the spot market has followed suit. As of July 16th, the price of butadiene was 10300 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.17% from 8866 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
On the supply side, the domestic Shunding production has steadily rebounded, with the weekly capacity utilization rate rising to 71.44%. The resumption of production at Yanshan Petrochemical has driven an increase in output, but the continuous maintenance of multiple units has limited the increment, and the market inventory pressure is not significant.
There are obvious constraints on the demand side. In early July, tire companies conducted centralized maintenance, and the operating rates of all steel and semi steel tires synchronously declined. Downstream only maintained essential procurement and resisted high priced raw materials, resulting in weak market transaction follow-up. Difficult to support a significant increase in adhesive prices. As of July 10th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 6.3%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has reached about 60%.
Market forecast:
Since the end of March 2026, the market for butadiene rubber has continued to decline, with the butadiene rubber price moving average chart showing a bearish trend. At the end of June, the price bottomed out and rebounded, with spot prices reaching the 10 day moving average. The short-term downward momentum has eased, but the current price is still under pressure from the 20 day moving average, and the medium-term bearish pattern has not been completely reversed. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on costs and tire production data.
Overall, against the backdrop of intensified geopolitical conflict risks, the cost support of butadiene rubber is strong. In addition, the expected maintenance of butadiene facilities in the third quarter provides bottom support, coupled with the strong linkage of natural rubber and low inventory, the price of butadiene rubber may mainly fluctuate with a strong bias. However, the traditional off-season in the downstream tire industry continues, and downstream procurement is difficult to increase in volume, which has certain limitations on the price increase of butadiene rubber.

In the first half of July, the industrial grade dimethyl carbonate market showed a slight and steady upward trend, with a narrow range of strong fluctuations. In the middle of the month, due to rising raw material costs and some equipment maintenance leading to tight spot support, market quotations slightly increased, and the focus of transactions slowly shifted upward. However, the follow-up of terminal demand was weak, the increase was limited, and there was no trend of upward trend. As of July 15th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3866 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.65% from the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Cost aspect: rigid support formed by rising raw material prices
In the first half of July, the upstream raw materials of methanol and epichlorohydrin in the dimethyl carbonate market saw a wide rise, and the overall raw material cost center shifted upward, providing sustained rigid support for the dimethyl carbonate market. The pressure on production costs for manufacturing enterprises has increased, coupled with the overall compression of profit margins in the industry. Manufacturers have weak willingness to sell at low prices, and are generally reluctant to sell at high prices. This has effectively supported the market price of dimethyl carbonate and curbed the risk of market downturn.
Supply side: Shortage of spot goods, slow pace of incremental growth
In early July, multiple sets of dimethyl carbonate maintenance facilities in China had not yet resumed operation, and the overall operating rate of the industry remained at a medium low level. The total amount of spot inventory in the market was low, and the tight spot market pattern provided strong support for market prices. In the middle of the year, some of the early parking facilities gradually resumed work, and the market spot quantity increased slightly. However, the progress of equipment resumption is slow, and the short-term new supply is limited, which cannot quickly alleviate the tight spot situation. At the same time, mainstream production enterprises have no inventory pressure, the overall supply rhythm is stable, and there is no phenomenon of bulk dumping. The overall good news on the market supply side still exists, but the strength of the good news is gradually weakening.
On the demand side: there is a strong need to support the bottom, and the increment is seriously insufficient
The overall lackluster performance on the demand side is the core factor restricting a significant increase in the market. The demand differentiation in the two core areas downstream is obvious: the demand in the lithium battery electrolyte field is relatively stable, and the inventory of the terminal new energy industry is stable, maintaining normal essential procurement and providing basic support for the market; The traditional downstream industries such as polycarbonate (PC), coatings, adhesives, etc. are in the off-season of traditional consumption, with insufficient terminal operating rates and weak overall industry trends. The purchasing enthusiasm of enterprises is low, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement and small order replenishment, without centralized stocking and large-scale replenishment actions.
Market forecast:
In late July, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is expected to continue a narrow range and strong oscillation trend, with overall growth slowing down and limited upward space. There is no risk of a major decline, and it is highly likely to maintain a stalemate and stable operation pattern. The core fluctuation range of the market is limited, and both upward and downward momentum are insufficient. The overall trend is mainly stable with slight fluctuations.

At the beginning of the month, the market trend was flat with little price fluctuation, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange was relatively flat. However, as we entered the middle of the month, favorable factors in the market became concentrated, and spot prices began to rise continuously. The production enterprises in the industry have a strong short-term bullish mentality, and the overall bullish atmosphere in the market is strong. Changes in the geopolitical situation and the strengthening of related futures markets further promote the rapid rise of market prices, and the market trading activity has significantly increased compared to the previous period. From July 1st to 14th, 2026, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 8866.67 yuan/ton to 9833.33 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 10.9%.
Cost aspect: Recently, the overall increase in international crude oil prices has driven up the prices of cracking raw materials, directly pushing up the overall production cost of butadiene. The support brought by the cost side continues to strengthen. The overall market situation of the chemical industry chain is improving, and the linkage between upstream and downstream related varieties is strengthening. Coupled with the strong trend of the futures market, it continues to boost the sentiment of the spot market, increase the cost pressure on production enterprises, and continue to strengthen the willingness to sell at high prices, laying a solid foundation for the current rise in butadiene prices. As of July 13th, the settlement price of the August contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.14 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September is $83.30 per barrel.
Supply side: The overall operating load of the domestic butadiene industry is at a moderate level, with some production facilities undergoing periodic maintenance, and the overall increase in on-site supply of goods is limited. The overall inventory of mainstream production enterprises remains low, with no obvious inventory backlog pressure and a smooth shipping rhythm. The overall circulation of spot goods in the market is not loose, and there is a general sentiment of merchants being reluctant to sell and raising prices. The current situation of tight supply continues to provide strong support for the market, further stabilizing the low price space in the market and helping prices steadily rise.
Demand side:
The overall demand performance of the downstream rubber industry is flat, and the overall market consumption capacity is weak, making it difficult to keep up with the pace of raw material price increases. After the continuous rise in raw material prices, the downstream purchasing mentality tends to be conservative, mainly focusing on purchasing in small quantities according to demand, and the willingness to proactively stock up in large quantities is insufficient. The acceptance of high priced goods in the market is low, and the transmission of upstream and downstream prices is not smooth. The terminal market is unable to bear the continuous rise in raw material prices, and the overall performance of the demand side is weak, making it difficult to form a long-term boost to the market situation, which to some extent restricts the sustained upward trend of prices.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the favorable cost side still exists, and there is no significant change in the supply pattern of on-site goods. Coupled with the bullish sentiment in the industry that has not yet subsided, it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to maintain a stable, medium to strong operating trend. But currently, the problem of weak market demand support is more prominent. After a clear round of price increases, downstream resistance is gradually heating up, and the market lacks further upward momentum. With the resumption of work and production of the equipment in the later stage, the market supply of goods is expected to increase. Coupled with the difficulty of following up on demand, the upward space for butadiene prices is limited, and there is a possibility of a downward adjustment at high levels. The overall market is likely to fluctuate and consolidate at high levels.

On July 13th, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a significant upward trend. As of July 13th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 8600.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.26% compared to the beginning of this month.
On the raw material side, the strong support of high propylene prices is the core driving force behind the rise of epoxy propane in this round. As of July 13th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 8011.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.10% compared to the beginning of this month (7411.00 yuan/ton).
On the supply side, on the 13th, some domestic epoxy propane units continued to reduce load or shut down. On July 13th, the utilization rate of domestic epoxy propane production capacity dropped to 60.17%, a decrease from 62.04% on July 10th. Although some factories in production have experienced narrow inventory accumulation, the inventory of most enterprises is still at a low and controllable level, and the pressure on factory shipments is relatively limited. However, after the weekend market surged significantly, the overall shipping atmosphere has shown signs of weakening.
On the demand side, the downstream polyether market of epoxy propane passively followed the rise. East China Soft Foam Polyether negotiated a reference price of 8600-8800 yuan/ton, Shandong Soft Foam Polyether 8600-8800 yuan/ton, and Hard Foam Polyether also rose by 400-500 yuan/ton. However, downstream enterprises have a significantly low acceptance of high priced raw materials and have gradually reduced their procurement volume, resulting in a cold inquiry atmosphere and weak actual order delivery.
Comprehensive forecast: Analysts believe that high levels of raw material propylene will provide strong support, supply side equipment maintenance and load reduction will continue, and factory inventory will be low, forming bottom support for epoxy propane prices. However, downstream acceptance of high priced raw materials is not high, the procurement pace has slowed down, and the inquiry atmosphere is cold. It is predicted that the epoxy propane market may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. More attention should be paid to the price trend of propylene on the raw material side, the dynamics of plant start-up and shutdown, and the follow-up of downstream new orders.