This month (8.1-8.31), the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and fell at a high level. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 426660 yuan/ton, and as of August 31, the average market price was 416770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.32%.
In August 2026, the overall domestic tin price showed a pattern of “rising and falling, with wide fluctuations at high levels”. In August, both the trading volume and position of Shanghai tin experienced a double decline, and the enthusiasm for market participation cooled down. Both long and short sides played repeatedly within the range of 415000 to 440000 yuan/ton.
supply side
In early August, news of some smelters undergoing maintenance and reducing production surged, and the market’s expectation of raw material shortages increased, leading to a short-term push up in tin prices. But over time, the disturbance gradually dissipates:
Overseas mining end: The marginal supply of imported tin ore has improved, and the tight situation of domestic smelting raw materials has been eased. Smelting enterprises that had previously reduced production have gradually resumed production, and the supply of spot goods has increased.
Domestic output: The operating rate of tin smelting in China has temporarily increased, and there has been no sustained destocking of social spot inventory. High prices have stimulated sellers to sell, and the market has increased the available supply of goods, which has suppressed tin prices.
Demand side
In the traditional electronic solder industry, although there are traditional peak season expectations, the actual order release in the terminal electronics industry is limited. Solder companies mainly purchase on demand, replenish inventory at low prices, and wait and see at high prices, without large-scale active hoarding behavior. The demand for electroplating and tin chemical sectors is stable, with limited incremental growth. After the price surge, downstream fear of high prices is evident, and the willingness to purchase at high prices quickly shrinks, lacking sustained buying opportunities and weakening the upward momentum. In the latter half of the year, during the process of price decline, there was no significant bottoming out in the downstream market, and more people remained on the sidelines, further amplifying the pressure of price correction.
Inventory end
In August, there was a clear differentiation pattern in tin inventory both domestically and internationally: domestic inventory continued to accumulate. As of August 31st, the previous period’s tin inventory was 5131 tons. LME inventory remains low.
comprehensive analysis
The short-term market is still in a game stage of “tight reality and loose expectations”. The current core contradiction lies in the fact that the tight mining situation has not fundamentally changed, and Myanmar is slow to resume production; The absolute level of global explicit inventory is still at a low level; The structural demand in the fields of AI and new energy provides long-term support. The continuous accumulation of domestic inventory weakens the elasticity of low inventory; Downstream high price acceptance is limited, and spot trading is light; Indonesia’s exports may resume in August, with marginal increase in supply pressure.

The natural rubber market fluctuated and rose in August. As of August 27th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17791 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.94% from 16483 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The intense long short game is supported by raw material costs, but downstream demand is weak, which restricts the extent of price increases. ​
Although Southeast Asia has entered a peak period for rubber cutting, rainfall has disrupted the pace of rubber cutting, and the release of raw materials has fallen short of expectations. Thai cup rubber remains at a high level of 70 baht/kg. Due to excessive rainfall in domestic production areas such as Hainan and Yunnan, processing plants are rushing to collect raw materials, resulting in a tight supply of spot goods.
On the inventory side, there was a slight destocking. As of August 23, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 631500 tons, a decrease of 1.65%, and continued to be slightly destocked. However, there is still an increase in overseas arrivals, and the absolute level of inventory is still at a high level.
The tire industry is in a traditional off-season, with 64.15% of sample enterprises producing all steel tires and 65.81% producing semi steel tires, a year-on-year decrease of 6.06% in semi steel tire production. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase for essential needs and have weak willingness to actively replenish inventory, resulting in significant resistance to high price transactions. The market is expected to experience the peak season of “golden September and silver October” in trading, but terminal orders have not substantially improved, making it difficult to drive rubber prices to continue rising. ​
Market forecast:
From a technical perspective, the August rubber price rebounded from the low point in late July, reaching the 5-day, 10 day, and 20 day moving averages. The short-term moving averages are in a bullish trend, indicating a strong trend. The early correction is sufficient, the bottom has been built at a low level, and there is ample short-term rebound momentum. But there is pressure in the early oscillation range above, and it is difficult to break through directly in the short term. It is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards in the future. If the price stabilizes at the short-term moving average, there is still room for further upward momentum; If it falls below the 10 day moving average, it will once again enter a period of consolidation and volatility, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the moving average support.
From a fundamental perspective, natural rubber prices are expected to maintain a high range of volatility in the short term. Constrained by the reality of demand, break through the limited space upwards; Supported by raw material costs, the downward space is limited. Focus on tracking Southeast Asian weather, tire production, and inventory changes in Qingdao. If the rainfall in the production area continues, there is a possibility of a pulse increase in prices.

1、 This week, the domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate market continued to rebound. As of August 26th, the benchmark price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (battery grade) from Shengyi Society was 114500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.51% compared to the beginning of this month.
2、 Raw material side: Lithium carbonate (battery grade) maintains high-level oscillation operation, providing stable cost support for lithium hexafluorophosphate. The price of lithium fluoride remains stable at a high level, providing solid cost support for lithium hexafluorophosphate. As of August 26th, the benchmark price of Business Society’s lithium carbonate (battery grade) was 151000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.34% compared to the beginning of this month (142000.00 yuan/ton).
3、 Supply side: At present, there is a significant contraction in supply. Mainstream large factories have proactively reduced their production load, and the reduction is difficult to recover in the short term. The overall market supply is not as abundant as before. Industry inventory remains at a low level, and the recent tightening of supply and demand has further intensified inventory depletion. Only a few companies have a small amount of inventory waiting to be sold at a high price, but the impact on the overall market pattern is limited. The inventory of large factories is still expected to decline, and with the support of the traditional peak season, the low inventory state is difficult to substantially improve in the short term.
4、 Demand side: Downstream electrolyte companies continue to release rigid demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate as operating rates increase. However, due to the rebound in raw material prices and the obstruction of cost transmission channels, some electrolyte manufacturers are facing significant pressure on their profits, and their attitude towards accepting orders is becoming more cautious. Although large electrolyte companies have made significant efforts to reduce prices, upstream suppliers have limited acceptance of low quotes, and the price game between buyers and sellers continues to tug at war.
5、 Market forecast: The current lithium hexafluorophosphate market is in a multi-party game stage of “cost support, supply contraction, and demand resilience”. In the short term, under the dual effects of tight supply and high costs, the market is expected to maintain a strong operating trend. However, when the upstream and downstream game deadlock will be broken, attention still needs to be paid to the trend of lithium carbonate prices and changes in downstream procurement rhythm.

In August, the hydrogen peroxide market experienced a weak decline, with a drop of over 4%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 636 yuan/ton. On August 25th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 606 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.71%.
Reasons for the decline in the hydrogen peroxide market
On the supply side, the overall overcapacity pattern in the industry remains unchanged, with mainstream large factories maintaining high loads. The national industry is operating at 72-75% capacity, while Shandong is operating at 78-82% capacity. The supply of goods from the north is sufficient, which continues to suppress the bottom of prices.
The partial device maintenance caused periodic tight balance, which is the core driving force of this round of rebound.
New production capacity release: 200000 tons will be put into operation in Sichuan in July, increasing supply to the southwest; The 180000 ton plant in Jiangxi will restart in August to replenish the supply of goods from Central China. The long-term expansion of the milk source project to 600000 tons has been registered, but there is still pressure for long-term incremental growth. The price has fallen to near the cost line, the company’s losses have expanded, the willingness to sell at low prices has weakened, and the sentiment of raising prices has increased.
On the demand side: bearish, papermaking and textiles are in the traditional off-season of summer, and bleaching demand remains stable. Paper companies mainly adopt on-demand procurement without large-scale centralized replenishment. Although new production capacity of paper companies such as forest packaging has been released, it has not yet brought about explosive procurement growth. Downstream operations such as caprolactam and water treatment are average, and raw material procurement is cautious. Traders tend to fast in and out, and their willingness to stock up is not strong. Although there has been an increase in exports, the overall volume is limited, making it difficult to hedge against domestic supply pressure.
Lido: The paper industry is approaching the traditional peak season of Jinjiu, and some paper companies are stocking up in advance, resulting in a month on month rebound in procurement. The production schedule of the iron phosphate industry has increased, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide as a raw material has improved month on month in the new energy sector.

This week, domestic mixed xylene spot prices have risen significantly, and the market price center has continued to rise. The benchmark price during the cycle increased from 6903.33 yuan/ton on August 17 to 7486.67 yuan/ton on August 24, with a cumulative increase of 8.45% per week, and the increase was significantly higher than that of toluene during the same period.
This week’s market is dominated by the dual benefits of cost and supply. International crude oil continues to rise, and the night market for aromatic hydrocarbons strengthens across the board. Over the weekend, Shandong local refineries have continuously raised their negotiated prices, coupled with the continued tight supply of goods nationwide, and spot prices in various regions have risen synchronously; However, the downstream PX, oil blending, and coating industries have generally weakened their processing profits, factories have insufficient willingness to stock up at high prices, traders are cautious in chasing price increases, and their price action is insufficient.
Cost aspect: Strong crude oil drives market upward
The cost is the core driving force behind the significant increase in mixed xylene this week. During the week, international crude oil prices fluctuated upwards due to favorable geopolitical supply and demand, directly driving up the prices of naphtha raw materials. The production costs of refinery restructuring units increased, and the mentality of holders and local refineries to raise prices continued to heat up. The linkage effect of the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain is prominent, with toluene and pure benzene strengthening simultaneously. The bullish atmosphere of C8 aromatic hydrocarbon futures in the night session is strong, continuously releasing bullish signals and boosting overall market expectations. At the same time, the price of mixed xylene in Asian foreign markets has been raised, the import arbitrage window has narrowed, and the expectation of low-priced imported goods replenishment has been dashed. Multiple cost benefits have been added to support the gradual rise of domestic spot prices. As of August 21st, the settlement price of the October contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $87.06 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October contract is $94.39 per barrel.
Supply side:
This week, the domestic spot supply of mixed xylene maintained a tight balance pattern, and the scarcity of supply supported a significant increase in prices. Domestic mainstream integrated refineries and reforming units prioritize self use and mutual supply of products, with limited external circulation of goods. The inventory in port warehouses and underground refineries continues to operate at a low level, and the pace of destocking has not reversed. Shandong Refining, as a national benchmark for aromatic hydrocarbon pricing, experienced a shortage of export sources during the week. Over the weekend, there were multiple rounds of price increases in transaction negotiations, and the signal of price increases quickly spread to various regions in East China, South China, and North China. Traders across the country were reluctant to sell and followed suit.
Demand side:
The main bearish constraint this week is that the demand side suppresses the market’s upward trend throughout the entire process. The core consumption areas of mixed xylene are concentrated in three major sectors: PX production, gasoline blending, and industrial coating solvents. Affected by the continuous surge in raw materials this week, downstream enterprises’ processing profits continue to be compressed, and most factories maintain a low profit or even loss state. The willingness to replenish large quantities of centralized inventory has basically disappeared, and procurement only maintains daily necessities. Intermediaries have a cautious mentality and are concerned about the lack of downstream acceptance and accumulation of goods after receiving goods at high levels. They actively hoard goods to chase price increases, and generally adopt a fast in, fast out, and light warehouse turnover model. The demand for goods can only maintain basic transactions without incremental buying, and the activity of spot negotiations is low, which limits the sustained upward momentum of the market.

Market forecast:
In the short term, the domestic mixed xylene market is still prone to rise but difficult to fall, maintaining a high volatility pattern. On the positive side, there is currently no clear signal of weakening in international crude oil prices, and the bottom support for naphtha costs is stable. The fundamentals of low inventory and tight supply in domestic spot markets are difficult to improve in the short term, and there is still a willingness to raise prices in Shandong’s refining industry, with a solid bottom support for prices; On the negative side, the sluggish profitability of downstream PX, oil blending, and coating industries cannot be repaired in the short term. The pattern of essential procurement continues, and traders’ fear of heights is difficult to dissipate. There is a lack of incremental demand pull, and the space for significant and continuous upward momentum is limited. In the future, the focus will be on tracking international crude oil fluctuations, daily price adjustments by Shandong refineries, changes in port inventories, and the pace of downstream centralized replenishment. It is expected that the short-term mixed xylene will slightly rise and then enter a narrow range consolidation at a high level, and the unilateral surge market will be difficult to sustain.