In August, the hydrogen peroxide market experienced a weak decline, with a drop of over 4%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 636 yuan/ton. On August 25th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 606 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.71%.
Reasons for the decline in the hydrogen peroxide market
On the supply side, the overall overcapacity pattern in the industry remains unchanged, with mainstream large factories maintaining high loads. The national industry is operating at 72-75% capacity, while Shandong is operating at 78-82% capacity. The supply of goods from the north is sufficient, which continues to suppress the bottom of prices.
The partial device maintenance caused periodic tight balance, which is the core driving force of this round of rebound.
New production capacity release: 200000 tons will be put into operation in Sichuan in July, increasing supply to the southwest; The 180000 ton plant in Jiangxi will restart in August to replenish the supply of goods from Central China. The long-term expansion of the milk source project to 600000 tons has been registered, but there is still pressure for long-term incremental growth. The price has fallen to near the cost line, the company’s losses have expanded, the willingness to sell at low prices has weakened, and the sentiment of raising prices has increased.
On the demand side: bearish, papermaking and textiles are in the traditional off-season of summer, and bleaching demand remains stable. Paper companies mainly adopt on-demand procurement without large-scale centralized replenishment. Although new production capacity of paper companies such as forest packaging has been released, it has not yet brought about explosive procurement growth. Downstream operations such as caprolactam and water treatment are average, and raw material procurement is cautious. Traders tend to fast in and out, and their willingness to stock up is not strong. Although there has been an increase in exports, the overall volume is limited, making it difficult to hedge against domestic supply pressure.
Lido: The paper industry is approaching the traditional peak season of Jinjiu, and some paper companies are stocking up in advance, resulting in a month on month rebound in procurement. The production schedule of the iron phosphate industry has increased, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide as a raw material has improved month on month in the new energy sector.

This week, domestic mixed xylene spot prices have risen significantly, and the market price center has continued to rise. The benchmark price during the cycle increased from 6903.33 yuan/ton on August 17 to 7486.67 yuan/ton on August 24, with a cumulative increase of 8.45% per week, and the increase was significantly higher than that of toluene during the same period.
This week’s market is dominated by the dual benefits of cost and supply. International crude oil continues to rise, and the night market for aromatic hydrocarbons strengthens across the board. Over the weekend, Shandong local refineries have continuously raised their negotiated prices, coupled with the continued tight supply of goods nationwide, and spot prices in various regions have risen synchronously; However, the downstream PX, oil blending, and coating industries have generally weakened their processing profits, factories have insufficient willingness to stock up at high prices, traders are cautious in chasing price increases, and their price action is insufficient.
Cost aspect: Strong crude oil drives market upward
The cost is the core driving force behind the significant increase in mixed xylene this week. During the week, international crude oil prices fluctuated upwards due to favorable geopolitical supply and demand, directly driving up the prices of naphtha raw materials. The production costs of refinery restructuring units increased, and the mentality of holders and local refineries to raise prices continued to heat up. The linkage effect of the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain is prominent, with toluene and pure benzene strengthening simultaneously. The bullish atmosphere of C8 aromatic hydrocarbon futures in the night session is strong, continuously releasing bullish signals and boosting overall market expectations. At the same time, the price of mixed xylene in Asian foreign markets has been raised, the import arbitrage window has narrowed, and the expectation of low-priced imported goods replenishment has been dashed. Multiple cost benefits have been added to support the gradual rise of domestic spot prices. As of August 21st, the settlement price of the October contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $87.06 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October contract is $94.39 per barrel.
Supply side:
This week, the domestic spot supply of mixed xylene maintained a tight balance pattern, and the scarcity of supply supported a significant increase in prices. Domestic mainstream integrated refineries and reforming units prioritize self use and mutual supply of products, with limited external circulation of goods. The inventory in port warehouses and underground refineries continues to operate at a low level, and the pace of destocking has not reversed. Shandong Refining, as a national benchmark for aromatic hydrocarbon pricing, experienced a shortage of export sources during the week. Over the weekend, there were multiple rounds of price increases in transaction negotiations, and the signal of price increases quickly spread to various regions in East China, South China, and North China. Traders across the country were reluctant to sell and followed suit.
Demand side:
The main bearish constraint this week is that the demand side suppresses the market’s upward trend throughout the entire process. The core consumption areas of mixed xylene are concentrated in three major sectors: PX production, gasoline blending, and industrial coating solvents. Affected by the continuous surge in raw materials this week, downstream enterprises’ processing profits continue to be compressed, and most factories maintain a low profit or even loss state. The willingness to replenish large quantities of centralized inventory has basically disappeared, and procurement only maintains daily necessities. Intermediaries have a cautious mentality and are concerned about the lack of downstream acceptance and accumulation of goods after receiving goods at high levels. They actively hoard goods to chase price increases, and generally adopt a fast in, fast out, and light warehouse turnover model. The demand for goods can only maintain basic transactions without incremental buying, and the activity of spot negotiations is low, which limits the sustained upward momentum of the market.

Market forecast:
In the short term, the domestic mixed xylene market is still prone to rise but difficult to fall, maintaining a high volatility pattern. On the positive side, there is currently no clear signal of weakening in international crude oil prices, and the bottom support for naphtha costs is stable. The fundamentals of low inventory and tight supply in domestic spot markets are difficult to improve in the short term, and there is still a willingness to raise prices in Shandong’s refining industry, with a solid bottom support for prices; On the negative side, the sluggish profitability of downstream PX, oil blending, and coating industries cannot be repaired in the short term. The pattern of essential procurement continues, and traders’ fear of heights is difficult to dissipate. There is a lack of incremental demand pull, and the space for significant and continuous upward momentum is limited. In the future, the focus will be on tracking international crude oil fluctuations, daily price adjustments by Shandong refineries, changes in port inventories, and the pace of downstream centralized replenishment. It is expected that the short-term mixed xylene will slightly rise and then enter a narrow range consolidation at a high level, and the unilateral surge market will be difficult to sustain.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 8366 yuan/ton on August 17th and 8508 yuan/ton on August 21st, an increase of 1.69%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10416 yuan/ton on August 17th and 10666 yuan/ton on August 21st, an increase of 2.40%. HDPE (5000S) had an average price of 10512 yuan/ton on August 17th and 10575 yuan/ton on August 21st, an increase of 0.59%.
Crude oil has risen due to geopolitical factors, and the cost of producing polyethylene from oil has increased, providing upward support for spot prices. Coal production costs remain stable, petrochemical profits recover, and there is a strong willingness to raise prices.
Multiple sets of equipment in China are undergoing centralized maintenance, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and a phased contraction of domestic supply. Some brands are experiencing a shortage of spot goods. Petrochemical and social inventory remain at a moderate level without significant accumulation, which provides some protection for prices. As the maintenance equipment restarts one after another, production will return in the later stage, and supply pressure will reappear.
The market is in a transitional stage from off-season to peak season, with strong expectations but weak actual fulfillment. The agricultural film is gradually entering the production cycle, and the production of greenhouse film is slowly increasing. However, downstream demand is mostly for immediate use and harvesting, and large-scale stock replenishment has not yet emerged. The overall downstream orders for packaging, hollow materials, and pipes are flat, with low production levels and a lack of new orders to drive growth.
Short term costs and maintenance provide support, but there is insufficient demand follow-up, and it is expected that polyethylene will be under pressure due to oscillation.

1、 Price trend
As of August 19th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China is 6433 yuan/ton, with mainstream production in Shandong at 5956-6600 yuan/ton and Shenmu Rich Oil at 5956 yuan/ton. The high price area in East China is returning to below 7800 yuan, with a shortage of large orders and a predominance of small orders for urgent needs. High end quotations have price but no market.
2、 Market analysis
Market aspect: Plant start-up: The overall start-up rate of domestic cyclohexane plants is 62-66%, and social inventory is above average. Supply characteristics: price increases are driven by costs and supported by suppliers, not due to stock shortages; The factory inventory is above average and there are few large orders. Traders generally offer discounts for shipments, and the supply side has limited upward price elasticity.
In terms of cost, pure benzene from Sinopec has been listed for three consecutive increases in mid August, with a cumulative increase of+650 to 8000 yuan/ton, and spot prices in East China ranging from 8180 to 8300 yuan/ton; The commercial inventory of Jiangsu ports has dropped to 29000 tons (month on month -27.5%, year-on-year -79.86%), with historical low destocking, marginal support for aromatics from oil blending/disproportionation profits, crude oil: US Iran conflict+Hormuz navigation concerns, WTI returning to 80+, oil distribution 91+US dollars/barrel, naphtha pure benzene cyclohexane cost chain moving up, and hydrogenated benzene 6275 yuan/ton synchronously strong.
Downstream demand: The production of caprolactam industry is about 68%, and the transaction volume of East China liquid is 12100 yuan/ton (although the cost has increased, the downstream PA6 production is about 64%, making it difficult to transmit high prices, and only low inventory raw materials are needed for replenishment). Adipic acid/cyclohexanone: The production of adipic acid industry is about 64%, and it has been pushed up by pure benzene to 8100-8300 yuan/ton, but the factory’s theoretical loss is over 1000 yuan, downstream PBAT production is only 20%, and PA66 is less than 50%, making it weak to catch up with high prices; The cyclohexanone plant is operating at 70-75% capacity, with a slight increase in the horizontal trend.
On the supply side, price increases are driven by cost push and supported by stockholders, rather than stock shortages. The factory inventory is above average and there are few large orders. Traders generally offer discounts for shipments, and the supply side has limited upward price elasticity.
3、 Future forecast
Cyclohexane analysts believe that due to the extremely low inventory of pure benzene ports and the lingering geopolitical premium of crude oil, cyclohexane is prone to rise but difficult to fall. The benchmark price is seen as 6500-6900 yuan/ton, and the Shandong ex factory price range of 6200-6600 yuan/ton is relatively strong; If pure benzene rises and falls back, cyclohexane will stop rising and remain sideways, making it difficult to rise independently.

Since August, domestic styrene butadiene rubber has rebounded and fluctuated upwards. As of August 18th, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the East China market was 14650 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.99% from 13441 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of the 18th, Sinopec has continuously raised its ex factory price by a cumulative amount of 800 yuan/ton.
The tense situation in the Middle East has pushed up international crude oil prices, causing a significant increase in upstream butadiene prices and a consolidation of high styrene prices, resulting in rising production costs for styrene butadiene. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 18th, the price of butadiene was 11733 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.14% from 10066 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of August 18th, the price of styrene was 8860 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.55% from 8725 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The production of styrene butadiene rubber industry remains at a high level of 70% -77%. Shenhua Chemical plans to carry out maintenance from late August to early September. Export orders are still acceptable, but factory inventory pressure is not high, and the impact of import sources is limited.
The demand side is still in the traditional off-season, and tire companies have slightly rebounded in production. However, the recovery of the terminal market is limited, and downstream consumers are resistant to high priced raw materials. Multi dimensional on-demand procurement is being held, and large-scale inventory replenishment has not yet been initiated. The demand side has not formed an active upward momentum. As of August 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 64.32%, while the operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.01%.
Market forecast: In the short term, the styrene butadiene rubber market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Butadiene provides cost support and maintenance brings supply disruptions, but downstream lacks large-scale replenishment. If butadiene rises and falls, there is a risk of a pullback in styrene butadiene. Pay attention to the downstream demand fulfillment during the peak season of Jinjiu in September. If tire replenishment and production scheduling go smoothly, there will be some price support. In the later stage, we will focus on factors such as international crude oil and butadiene trends, the pace of equipment resumption, and changes in tire production.