At the beginning of the month, the market trend was flat with little price fluctuation, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange was relatively flat. However, as we entered the middle of the month, favorable factors in the market became concentrated, and spot prices began to rise continuously. The production enterprises in the industry have a strong short-term bullish mentality, and the overall bullish atmosphere in the market is strong. Changes in the geopolitical situation and the strengthening of related futures markets further promote the rapid rise of market prices, and the market trading activity has significantly increased compared to the previous period. From July 1st to 14th, 2026, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 8866.67 yuan/ton to 9833.33 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 10.9%.
Cost aspect: Recently, the overall increase in international crude oil prices has driven up the prices of cracking raw materials, directly pushing up the overall production cost of butadiene. The support brought by the cost side continues to strengthen. The overall market situation of the chemical industry chain is improving, and the linkage between upstream and downstream related varieties is strengthening. Coupled with the strong trend of the futures market, it continues to boost the sentiment of the spot market, increase the cost pressure on production enterprises, and continue to strengthen the willingness to sell at high prices, laying a solid foundation for the current rise in butadiene prices. As of July 13th, the settlement price of the August contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.14 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September is $83.30 per barrel.
Supply side: The overall operating load of the domestic butadiene industry is at a moderate level, with some production facilities undergoing periodic maintenance, and the overall increase in on-site supply of goods is limited. The overall inventory of mainstream production enterprises remains low, with no obvious inventory backlog pressure and a smooth shipping rhythm. The overall circulation of spot goods in the market is not loose, and there is a general sentiment of merchants being reluctant to sell and raising prices. The current situation of tight supply continues to provide strong support for the market, further stabilizing the low price space in the market and helping prices steadily rise.
Demand side:
The overall demand performance of the downstream rubber industry is flat, and the overall market consumption capacity is weak, making it difficult to keep up with the pace of raw material price increases. After the continuous rise in raw material prices, the downstream purchasing mentality tends to be conservative, mainly focusing on purchasing in small quantities according to demand, and the willingness to proactively stock up in large quantities is insufficient. The acceptance of high priced goods in the market is low, and the transmission of upstream and downstream prices is not smooth. The terminal market is unable to bear the continuous rise in raw material prices, and the overall performance of the demand side is weak, making it difficult to form a long-term boost to the market situation, which to some extent restricts the sustained upward trend of prices.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the favorable cost side still exists, and there is no significant change in the supply pattern of on-site goods. Coupled with the bullish sentiment in the industry that has not yet subsided, it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to maintain a stable, medium to strong operating trend. But currently, the problem of weak market demand support is more prominent. After a clear round of price increases, downstream resistance is gradually heating up, and the market lacks further upward momentum. With the resumption of work and production of the equipment in the later stage, the market supply of goods is expected to increase. Coupled with the difficulty of following up on demand, the upward space for butadiene prices is limited, and there is a possibility of a downward adjustment at high levels. The overall market is likely to fluctuate and consolidate at high levels.

On July 13th, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a significant upward trend. As of July 13th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 8600.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.26% compared to the beginning of this month.
On the raw material side, the strong support of high propylene prices is the core driving force behind the rise of epoxy propane in this round. As of July 13th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 8011.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.10% compared to the beginning of this month (7411.00 yuan/ton).
On the supply side, on the 13th, some domestic epoxy propane units continued to reduce load or shut down. On July 13th, the utilization rate of domestic epoxy propane production capacity dropped to 60.17%, a decrease from 62.04% on July 10th. Although some factories in production have experienced narrow inventory accumulation, the inventory of most enterprises is still at a low and controllable level, and the pressure on factory shipments is relatively limited. However, after the weekend market surged significantly, the overall shipping atmosphere has shown signs of weakening.
On the demand side, the downstream polyether market of epoxy propane passively followed the rise. East China Soft Foam Polyether negotiated a reference price of 8600-8800 yuan/ton, Shandong Soft Foam Polyether 8600-8800 yuan/ton, and Hard Foam Polyether also rose by 400-500 yuan/ton. However, downstream enterprises have a significantly low acceptance of high priced raw materials and have gradually reduced their procurement volume, resulting in a cold inquiry atmosphere and weak actual order delivery.
Comprehensive forecast: Analysts believe that high levels of raw material propylene will provide strong support, supply side equipment maintenance and load reduction will continue, and factory inventory will be low, forming bottom support for epoxy propane prices. However, downstream acceptance of high priced raw materials is not high, the procurement pace has slowed down, and the inquiry atmosphere is cold. It is predicted that the epoxy propane market may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. More attention should be paid to the price trend of propylene on the raw material side, the dynamics of plant start-up and shutdown, and the follow-up of downstream new orders.

This week, the demand side continued to be weak and the overall supply was abundant. The domestic acrylonitrile market price fell sharply, and suppliers took active price reduction measures, further accelerating the market downturn. As of July 10th, the ex tank price in the East China market has dropped from 10050 yuan/ton last week to around 9350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7%; The Shandong market has dropped by 700 yuan/ton to the current 9200 yuan/ton for delivery.
Fundamental analysis:
At present, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry remains above 70%. Against the backdrop of overall low demand, the supply performance is relatively abundant. At the same time, the construction of the acrylic fiber industry began to decline again in July, leading to further reduction in overall consumption. Since the beginning of the month, downstream users have maintained a pace of purchasing goods for essential needs, and there is a particularly insufficient demand for spot goods, resulting in poor sales in some areas. In addition, since the second half of June, the production profit of acrylonitrile has been considerable, with the theoretical profit of a single product exceeding 1000 yuan/ton, which has also stimulated the timely recovery of units such as Korur and Sinochem Quanzhou, as well as the delayed maintenance of the Jinfa unit in Liaoning.
The combination of low cost and low demand has led to a gradual increase in bearish sentiment in the acrylonitrile market, and buying is also in a wait-and-see situation, which has prompted suppliers to take active price reduction measures. The rapid decline in acrylonitrile prices has also caused buying to stagnate, further accelerating the market downturn.
However, at the beginning of this market downturn, the inventory of acrylonitrile industry remained at a low level, so even though there has been some accumulation of inventory recently, the overall inventory is still controllable. Moreover, the recent strong performance of raw material propylene prices has once again highlighted cost pressures. Acrylonitrile prices have fallen to near the marginal cost line, and suppliers’ willingness to continue lowering prices in the future will be reduced. In addition, based on the comparison between spot prices and contract settlement expectations, the advantage of spot prices has become prominent, attracting some buyers to gradually follow up and replenish. Therefore, the trading atmosphere in the spot market has significantly improved in the past two days.
Market forecast: The fluctuation direction of propylene prices will continue to support the price of acrylonitrile, but the fundamentals are still difficult to be optimistic. The overall demand off-season is expected to continue until around mid August, and new production capacity will be put on the agenda again in the later period, including 660000 tons of Zhejiang Petrochemical and 130000 tons of new facilities from Sinopec. Therefore, oversupply will continue to envelop the acrylonitrile market. In the future, apart from external news and supply variables, acrylonitrile prices may fluctuate near the cost line for a long time again.

Isooctanol prices rebound and rise
On July 8th, the price of isooctanol was 6766.67 yuan/ton, which rebounded from the price of 6733.33 yuan/ton on July 7th, with an increase of 0.50%. On July 8th, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded. Mainstream isooctanol manufacturers raised their prices, and the isooctanol market stopped falling and rose.
The escalation of geopolitical games in the Middle East
On July 7th local time, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury Department officially revoked the exemption permit for Iran’s oil sales sanctions, terminated the previously relaxed cross-border sales policy for Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products, and fully restarted relevant sanctions. The core cause of the policy shift is the recent attack on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The US has determined that Iran’s actions violate the temporary consensus between the two sides, and therefore urgently tightened energy sanctions against Iran. After the tightening of sanctions was announced, the market was concerned that the temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran would essentially break down, the geopolitical game in the Middle East would escalate, and the international crude oil market would quickly and significantly rise.
Propylene costs rebound and rise
On July 8th, the propylene price was 7821 yuan/ton, a decrease followed by an increase of 0.13% compared to the propylene price of 7811 yuan/ton on July 1st. The price of propylene has increased by 2.27% compared to July 6th at 7647.67 yuan/ton. The tightening of US oil sanctions on Iran, the shipping safety crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and the escalation of US Iran confrontation have led to an increase in crude oil prices, which have been transmitted downstream. The rebound in propylene prices has caused an increase in the cost of isooctanol, and the support for its rise has increased.
Future prospects
Analysts believe that on the cost side, the geopolitical game in the Middle East has once again escalated, with crude oil and propylene rebounding and rising, and downstream chemical industries likely to follow suit with crude oil. The cost support for isooctanol has increased. In the future, the geopolitical game in the Middle East has once again escalated, and the cost pressure of isooctanol has increased. Isooctanol has stopped falling and risen, and weak demand has suppressed the upward space of isooctanol. The price of isooctanol is likely to consolidate strongly in the future.

From July 1st to 7th, the domestic BDO price remained at 7716 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 4.54% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.67%. Both the supply and demand sides are showing an incremental trend, and industry players are cautious in their wait-and-see attitude. Trading of essential contract orders and light spot negotiations are underway. The supply and demand negotiation game continues, and the domestic BDO market fluctuates narrowly.
On the supply side, the supply of goods has increased. The supply side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
On the cost side, in terms of calcium carbide, the tight power supply has intensified and the supply has contracted; The concentration of downstream maintenance has weakened, and market demand has recovered to some extent; The market shows a clear shortage of supply, with a rapid increase in calcium carbide prices and inventory consumption. In terms of methanol, the price of methanol has significantly decreased. The raw material calcium carbide market is on the rise, while the methanol market is plummeting, and the impact of BDO cost is mixed.
On the demand side and downstream side, the average performance of terminal demand has led to pressure on supply and demand in multiple downstream industries. The mentality of shipping has driven actual orders to negotiate discounts, dragging down most downstream markets and making it difficult to accept high prices of raw materials. Contract orders continue to follow up, and spot negotiations are sluggish. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future forecast, the raw material calcium carbide will operate strongly, methanol will fluctuate at a low level, and BDO cost pressure will still exist; The downstream PTMEG, PBT, and PU pulp industries have seen an increase in production and demand. Overall, BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market may experience a narrow adjustment.