1、 Review of August Market Trends
In August, the domestic PA6 spot market as a whole emerged from a volatile upward trend, with an accelerated rise at the end of the month. In the first half of the year, the price remained stable at 12966.67 yuan/ton, and then the market steadily rose. In the second half of the year, the price remained stable at 13166.67 yuan/ton for a long time; On September 1st, the spot price rose sharply to 13466.67 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.28%. In the short term, the price of all 10-90 day cycles remained in the high range, and the one-year cycle position reached the medium high level. This round of upward trend has accumulated a considerable upward momentum.
1. Cost analysis
The upstream raw material caprolactam market has fluctuated and strengthened, with the cost center of raw materials constantly shifting upwards, providing sustained cost support for PA6. With the rise in raw material prices, the production costs of enterprises have increased, and the willingness of factories to raise prices has strengthened. Cost driven factors are an important driving force for the price increase of PA6 in August, forming a top-down upward momentum for spot prices.
2. Supply and demand analysis
On the supply side, some domestic production enterprises are undergoing periodic maintenance, and the overall operating load of the industry has fallen, resulting in limited increase in market spot supply; As prices continue to rise, manufacturers tend to be cautious in their shipping mentality, creating a strong atmosphere of reluctance to sell and pushing prices higher. The supply of spot goods has tightened, providing support for the upward trend of the market. On the demand side, the downstream spinning and modified plastic industries are gradually starting to stock up, and the expected peak season of “Golden September” is driving the enthusiasm of downstream procurement to rebound, with a month on month improvement in demand. However, the actual consumption of the terminal has not been fully released, and the downstream pursuit of price increases is becoming cautious. The resistance to high price transactions is gradually emerging, and further upward movement is subject to certain constraints. Overall, there is a pattern of supply contraction and demand recovery driven by peak season expectations.
2、 Short term future forecast
The short-term PA6 market is expected to fluctuate at a high level and slow down its upward trend, raising concerns about the risk of a pullback. At present, prices in the short, medium, and long term cycles are all at high levels, and the periodic upward trend in prices has already overdrawn some peak season expectations, further weakening the momentum of unilateral sharp upward momentum; Upstream cost support still exists, and there is some room for support below. The market is likely to enter a period of high volatility, and it is necessary to focus on tracking the actual demand fulfillment during the downstream September peak season. If terminal demand falls short of expectations, there is pressure for the market to fall back and adjust.

The price trend of acetic acid in August first fell and then rose. As of August 31, the average market price was 3310.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 86.67 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month when the acetic acid price was 3223.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69% within the month.
At the beginning of the month, the market was affected by weak demand, downstream follow-up was not smooth, enterprise shipments were hindered, inventory accumulated in some areas, and acetic acid prices fell slightly; In the second half of the year, due to the centralized maintenance of the acetic acid plant, the supply side tightened, and the increasing intention of enterprises to rise, coupled with strong export demand and rising prices of raw material methanol, the price of acetic acid continued to rise, and the overall trend was significantly upward.
The methanol market rose strongly in August. As of August 31st, the average market price was 3096 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.81% compared to the beginning of the month price of 2628 yuan/ton. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the expected reduction in methanol imports has provided positive support for port prices, leading to a strong market sentiment; Centralized maintenance of domestic facilities within the month, tightening of domestic supply, and high sentiment among manufacturers have driven up prices continuously; Driven by low inventory factors, methanol prices remain at a high level. The raw material methanol has a strong support for acetic acid, and the cost advantage is obvious.
Market forecast: Acetic acid enterprises have low inventory, and the market supply will remain tight in the short term. Downstream demand will follow up, and combined with traditional peak season expectations, the fundamentals will be more favorable. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to operate strongly in September, and specific attention will be paid to the restart of equipment and downstream follow-up.

This month (8.1-8.31), the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and fell at a high level. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 426660 yuan/ton, and as of August 31, the average market price was 416770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.32%.
In August 2026, the overall domestic tin price showed a pattern of “rising and falling, with wide fluctuations at high levels”. In August, both the trading volume and position of Shanghai tin experienced a double decline, and the enthusiasm for market participation cooled down. Both long and short sides played repeatedly within the range of 415000 to 440000 yuan/ton.
supply side
In early August, news of some smelters undergoing maintenance and reducing production surged, and the market’s expectation of raw material shortages increased, leading to a short-term push up in tin prices. But over time, the disturbance gradually dissipates:
Overseas mining end: The marginal supply of imported tin ore has improved, and the tight situation of domestic smelting raw materials has been eased. Smelting enterprises that had previously reduced production have gradually resumed production, and the supply of spot goods has increased.
Domestic output: The operating rate of tin smelting in China has temporarily increased, and there has been no sustained destocking of social spot inventory. High prices have stimulated sellers to sell, and the market has increased the available supply of goods, which has suppressed tin prices.
Demand side
In the traditional electronic solder industry, although there are traditional peak season expectations, the actual order release in the terminal electronics industry is limited. Solder companies mainly purchase on demand, replenish inventory at low prices, and wait and see at high prices, without large-scale active hoarding behavior. The demand for electroplating and tin chemical sectors is stable, with limited incremental growth. After the price surge, downstream fear of high prices is evident, and the willingness to purchase at high prices quickly shrinks, lacking sustained buying opportunities and weakening the upward momentum. In the latter half of the year, during the process of price decline, there was no significant bottoming out in the downstream market, and more people remained on the sidelines, further amplifying the pressure of price correction.
Inventory end
In August, there was a clear differentiation pattern in tin inventory both domestically and internationally: domestic inventory continued to accumulate. As of August 31st, the previous period’s tin inventory was 5131 tons. LME inventory remains low.
comprehensive analysis
The short-term market is still in a game stage of “tight reality and loose expectations”. The current core contradiction lies in the fact that the tight mining situation has not fundamentally changed, and Myanmar is slow to resume production; The absolute level of global explicit inventory is still at a low level; The structural demand in the fields of AI and new energy provides long-term support. The continuous accumulation of domestic inventory weakens the elasticity of low inventory; Downstream high price acceptance is limited, and spot trading is light; Indonesia’s exports may resume in August, with marginal increase in supply pressure.

The natural rubber market fluctuated and rose in August. As of August 27th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17791 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.94% from 16483 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The intense long short game is supported by raw material costs, but downstream demand is weak, which restricts the extent of price increases. ​
Although Southeast Asia has entered a peak period for rubber cutting, rainfall has disrupted the pace of rubber cutting, and the release of raw materials has fallen short of expectations. Thai cup rubber remains at a high level of 70 baht/kg. Due to excessive rainfall in domestic production areas such as Hainan and Yunnan, processing plants are rushing to collect raw materials, resulting in a tight supply of spot goods.
On the inventory side, there was a slight destocking. As of August 23, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 631500 tons, a decrease of 1.65%, and continued to be slightly destocked. However, there is still an increase in overseas arrivals, and the absolute level of inventory is still at a high level.
The tire industry is in a traditional off-season, with 64.15% of sample enterprises producing all steel tires and 65.81% producing semi steel tires, a year-on-year decrease of 6.06% in semi steel tire production. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase for essential needs and have weak willingness to actively replenish inventory, resulting in significant resistance to high price transactions. The market is expected to experience the peak season of “golden September and silver October” in trading, but terminal orders have not substantially improved, making it difficult to drive rubber prices to continue rising. ​
Market forecast:
From a technical perspective, the August rubber price rebounded from the low point in late July, reaching the 5-day, 10 day, and 20 day moving averages. The short-term moving averages are in a bullish trend, indicating a strong trend. The early correction is sufficient, the bottom has been built at a low level, and there is ample short-term rebound momentum. But there is pressure in the early oscillation range above, and it is difficult to break through directly in the short term. It is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards in the future. If the price stabilizes at the short-term moving average, there is still room for further upward momentum; If it falls below the 10 day moving average, it will once again enter a period of consolidation and volatility, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the moving average support.
From a fundamental perspective, natural rubber prices are expected to maintain a high range of volatility in the short term. Constrained by the reality of demand, break through the limited space upwards; Supported by raw material costs, the downward space is limited. Focus on tracking Southeast Asian weather, tire production, and inventory changes in Qingdao. If the rainfall in the production area continues, there is a possibility of a pulse increase in prices.

1、 This week, the domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate market continued to rebound. As of August 26th, the benchmark price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (battery grade) from Shengyi Society was 114500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.51% compared to the beginning of this month.
2、 Raw material side: Lithium carbonate (battery grade) maintains high-level oscillation operation, providing stable cost support for lithium hexafluorophosphate. The price of lithium fluoride remains stable at a high level, providing solid cost support for lithium hexafluorophosphate. As of August 26th, the benchmark price of Business Society’s lithium carbonate (battery grade) was 151000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.34% compared to the beginning of this month (142000.00 yuan/ton).
3、 Supply side: At present, there is a significant contraction in supply. Mainstream large factories have proactively reduced their production load, and the reduction is difficult to recover in the short term. The overall market supply is not as abundant as before. Industry inventory remains at a low level, and the recent tightening of supply and demand has further intensified inventory depletion. Only a few companies have a small amount of inventory waiting to be sold at a high price, but the impact on the overall market pattern is limited. The inventory of large factories is still expected to decline, and with the support of the traditional peak season, the low inventory state is difficult to substantially improve in the short term.
4、 Demand side: Downstream electrolyte companies continue to release rigid demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate as operating rates increase. However, due to the rebound in raw material prices and the obstruction of cost transmission channels, some electrolyte manufacturers are facing significant pressure on their profits, and their attitude towards accepting orders is becoming more cautious. Although large electrolyte companies have made significant efforts to reduce prices, upstream suppliers have limited acceptance of low quotes, and the price game between buyers and sellers continues to tug at war.
5、 Market forecast: The current lithium hexafluorophosphate market is in a multi-party game stage of “cost support, supply contraction, and demand resilience”. In the short term, under the dual effects of tight supply and high costs, the market is expected to maintain a strong operating trend. However, when the upstream and downstream game deadlock will be broken, attention still needs to be paid to the trend of lithium carbonate prices and changes in downstream procurement rhythm.