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After the festival, DOP prices fell after a sharp rise

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of DOP after the festival fluctuated and rose sharply, and then stabilized and fell back. As of May 14, DOP price was 13725.00 yuan / ton, up 10.02% from 12475.00 yuan / ton of DOP price on May 1, the beginning of the month. In May, the plasticizer market rose sharply, raw material prices fell after a big rise, and the plasticizer market surged and stabilized.

Raw material cost rises and falls back

From the trend chart of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride prices, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride will fall after saving significantly, the cost of DOP raw materials will stabilize after rising, and the downward pressure of DOP will increase and the driving force will weaken.

Market overview and future market expectation

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with DOP data from business agency, believes that the cost of DOP raw materials has risen significantly after the festival, which stimulated the sharp rise of DOP prices, stabilized the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride 10 days later, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fell on 14 days, the cost of raw materials decreased, and DOP kept up sluggish. Generally speaking, the rise of the DOP market in the future market is weak, and the price of the later market is expected to be weak temporarily stable.

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Methanol spot price continues to rise driven by futures

On May 13, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange finished high and closed at 2755 yuan / ton, up 139 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, with the futures up 5.31%. The spot market of methanol is also rising. The main production areas in Northwest China drive the spot price of methanol in other regions to continue to rise. The supply and demand of raw coal is tight, which promotes the cost of coal to methanol. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 13, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2680 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 13.80% and a year-on-year increase of 54.91%.

At present, the main methanol production enterprises and port inventory is low, traders are in pursuit of rising sentiment, and downstream receiving is cautious. Methanol downstream products are reflected in the rise and fall: formaldehyde, dimethyl ether market rise, acetic acid, MTBE market weak shocks. In the short term, the rising trend of futures and low inventory will continue to dominate the methanol market.

Summary of methanol market prices by Region as of May 13

Region, price

Qinghai Area 2200-2280 yuan / ton factory cash

Shanxi area 2660-2685 yuan / ton factory cash

Liaoning Province 2430-2450 yuan / ton delivered to the factory

Fujian area 2850 yuan / ton

Two lakes area Ex factory reference 2660-2700 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Anhui Province 2600-2620 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province 2545-2565 yuan / ton ex factory cash

On the downstream side, the formaldehyde market has been rising steadily. Upstream methanol futures trading impact, the cost continued to be high. Dimethyl ether Market offer continued to rise, trading atmosphere is good. The weakness of domestic acetic acid market continued. The recent competition among spot manufacturers is more obvious, which has pushed the market negotiation prices down one after another. Tbe market is mainly stable with limited fluctuation. Crude oil continued to go up, giving support to the market mentality. In addition, after the recent price drop to a low level, some downstream businesses took advantage of low prices to replenish. With the rise of other raw materials, the price gap between MTBE and alkylation and other raw materials narrowed, and the sales pressure of Northern businesses slightly reduced.

In the external market, as of May 12, CFR China methanol closed at 301.50-302.50 US dollars / ton, up 8 US dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia methanol 354.00-355.00 USD / ton. US Gulf methanol closed at 110.50-111.50 cents per gallon, down 2 cents per gallon; The closing price of methanol in FOB Rotterdam is 307.00-308.00 euro / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia CFR China 309.50-310.50 USD / T 8 US dollars / ton

Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 354.00-355.00/t 0 USD / ton

Europe and America Gulf of America 110.50-111.50 cents / gal – 2 cents per gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 307.00-308.00 euro / ton 0 euro / ton

In the near future, methanol futures are greatly affected by steam coal futures. At present, the methanol market is basically good. Methanol analysts of business cooperatives expect that the spot market of short-term methanol market will follow up slowly.

PVA

Methanol market price rises again

The strong coal market on the cost side strongly drives the expectation of methanol futures market. At the same time, the macro side is good, and the methanol futures market is still bullish for a short time under the background of product fundamental preference. At the same time, the methanol spot market is rising slowly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 12, the average price of domestic methanol manufacturers in Shandong was 2625 yuan / ton, with a month on month rise of 11.68% and a year-on-year rise of 23.32%.

In terms of methanol spot market, the new prices of production enterprises in the main production areas of Northwest China were significantly increased to drive the market, while the production enterprises in the inland areas were gradually rising. At present, the social inventory of methanol market is fair, and the price of downstream products is up and down. Most enterprises purchase on demand.

Summary of methanol market prices by Region as of May 12

Region, price

Qinghai Area 2200-2280 yuan / ton factory cash

Shanxi area 2430-2470 yuan / ton factory cash

Liaoning Province 2430-2450 yuan / ton delivered to the factory

Fujian area 2720 yuan / ton, including tax

Two lakes area Ex factory reference 2660-2700 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Anhui Province 2600-2620 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province 2545-2565 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Downstream, the formaldehyde market rose steadily, the market trading atmosphere is fair. The market price of dimethyl ether went up in a wide range, and the market transaction atmosphere was acceptable. The weakness of domestic acetic acid market continued. The recent competition among spot manufacturers is more obvious, which has pushed the market negotiation prices down one after another. MTBE market in the North continued to decline slightly, while the South remained stable.

In the external market, as of May 11, CFR China methanol closed at 301.50-302.50 US dollars / ton, up 1.5 US dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia methanol 354.00-355.00 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton. US Gulf methanol closed at 114.50-115.50 cents per gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol closed at 307.00-308.00 euro / ton, down 1 euro / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia CFR China USD 301.50-302.50/t US $1.5/t

Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 354.00-355.00/t – US $5 / T

Europe and America Gulf of America 114.50-115.50 cents / gal 0 cents per gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 307.00-308.00 euro / ton – 1 euro / ton

In the near future, methanol futures are greatly affected by steam coal futures. At present, the methanol market is basically good. Methanol analysts of business cooperatives expect that the spot market of short-term methanol market will follow up slowly.

PVA

The price of pure benzene rose 4.18% after the festival (2021.5.3-2021.5.9)

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene rose continuously this week. On April 30, the price of pure benzene was 7350-7500 yuan / ton (average price was 7410 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (May 9), the price of pure benzene was 7600-7853 yuan / ton (average price was 7720 yuan / ton), which was 310 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 4.18%; It was 136.09% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

On the last day before the festival (April 30), Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 100 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton. After the festival, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased again by 300 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton. Crude oil fluctuated at a high level, with good cost support. The pure benzene resources in Europe and the United States are in short supply, and the arbitrage window with Asia is opened, and the price of the external market is rising. At home, the domestic pure benzene market is active, the spot supply is tight, and Sinopec’s listing price is high.

In terms of external market, the short-term resources of pure benzene in Europe and the United States are still in short supply, and the arbitrage window with Asia is open. On Friday (May 7), the reference price of pure benzene in the South Korean market was US $1059.67/t, up US $103 / T or 10.77% from April 30; The import reference price of East China was US $1050 / T, up US $70 / T or 7.14% from April 30.

In terms of crude oil, good news: within the week, OPEC + kept the policy of gradually increasing production unchanged, and the energy demand in Europe and the United States improved to support the market. Bad news: the epidemic situation in India is severe, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. On April 30, Brent rose $1.775/barrel, or 2.65%; WTI rose $1.4 per barrel, or 2.21%.

Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene rose this week, exceeding 10000 yuan. On May 9, the price of sample enterprises was 10000 yuan / ton, up 2.56% from last week, and 88.68% from the same period last year.

Aniline: aniline is driven by the pure benzene market, and the price rises. On May 9, the price of aniline was 11300-11500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 11700 yuan / ton in Nanjing, up 7.76% from last week and 104.72% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the global economy and demand are expected to improve as a whole, and crude oil has an upward momentum. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the Indian epidemic, OPEC + production reduction plan, global economic data and US crude oil inventory data.

Downstream: downstream main product styrene: the current inventory of styrene is low, the spot circulation is tight, and the price is firm. The cost support is good, and the downstream just need replenishment is OK. In the short term, supported by the strong rise in the cost side, styrene is expected to continue to have strong shocks.

On the market side, the supply of pure benzene in the spot market is tight. In addition, Hongrun Petrochemical has stopped exporting, resulting in a decrease in the supply on the spot market. In terms of external market, Europe and the United States will maintain supply tension in the short term, with strong external support. Overall, the trend of short-term pure benzene is expected to be stronger. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

PVA

Shandong propylene market price went up steadily in recent eight days and then stabilized (5.1 ~ 5.8)

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has been stable after rising steadily in the past eight days. On May 1 and 2, the price of the 8th day was 8055 yuan / ton, and on May 8, it was the high price for the eighth day, with 8329 yuan / ton, and the increase of 3.41% on the eighth day.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of business agency, the propylene price in Shandong Province rose continuously in the first ten days in April, and the price in the second ten days fell sharply, and remained stable at the end of the month. The first two days of May 1 period continued to stabilize. From March to 7th, the daily upward trend was about 50 yuan / ton. Today, it has been stable. The current market transaction is between 8300 yuan and 8450 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price of about 8300 yuan / ton. On May 7, the U. There is no pressure on the stock of propylene market, some of the devices are still under maintenance, and the source of goods is slightly tight.

Recently, the international crude oil market events have been constant, and the price has fluctuated. The crude oil price has declined slightly on May 7, which has weakened the impact on the propylene market.

PP prices have been rising continuously in the past eight days, with an 8-day increase of 1.73%. The futures market is generally, and has limited impact on the propene’s positive.

Acrylic acid prices have stabilized after the upward trend in the past eight days, with an increase of 1.63% in the eighth day, which has little effect on the properyl Lido.

In recent eight days, the propylene oxide market rose slightly, 8 days up 2.12%, which has a pull-up effect on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin market fell continuously in the last eight days, with a decline of 6.17% in the eighth day, which has a certain negative effect on propylene.

In recent eight days, the price of n-butanol in China rose sharply, up 19.74% in the eighth day, which has a more obvious pull-up effect on the propylene market.

The price of isooctanol has been stable after the obvious increase in the last eight days, with an increase of 11.27% in the eighth day, which has a positive effect on propylene.

In the past eight days, the price of isopropanol has declined slightly, and the decline in the eighth day is 0.72%, which has little impact on propylene.

In the past eight days, the phenol Market Price in East China has been stable after rising steadily, with an increase of 2.69% in the eighth day, which has a slight positive effect on propylene.

In the past eight days, the prices of manufacturers in East China acetone market fell, with a decline of 2.73% in the eighth day, which had a slight negative effect on propylene.

The price of acrylonitrile market has been falling in the past eight days, with a decline of 1.67% on the eighth day and an amplitude of 2.55% on the eighth day, which has a little impact on the profit and air of propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analyst of chemical branch of business society thinks: in a comprehensive way, there are not many domestic stocks, some units are overhauled, crude oil market is slightly down, the downstream operating rate is still acceptable, the market is more than empty, polypropylene futures are general, and propylene is expected to continue to remain stable.

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