In the second half of July, the dichloromethane market as a whole shifted from a “sharp rise” to a narrow range of stable and strong fluctuations, with a convergence of volatility. Manufacturers still have the willingness to raise prices, but the follow-up of transactions has slowed down significantly. As of July 30th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2220 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.1% compared to the middle of the month.
Core driver analysis
Cost side: support phased, marginal weakening
Geopolitical events drive market sentiment, international oil prices fluctuate, putting pressure on high levels of methanol, making it difficult for spot prices to continue to rise. After imports are cashed in at the port, port inventories have rebounded, and peak season sentiment has cooled down. Currently, the focus of methanol is shifting downwards; Liquid chlorine has shown a strong upward trend, rising from -150 yuan/ton in mid month to 300-500 yuan/ton. On the cost side, it can only establish a price bottom for the dichloromethane market and cannot drive a significant price surge.
Supply side: high production capacity, regional differentiation, overall supply not lacking
The comprehensive construction of the industry remains at a medium to high level of 78% -80%, with no large-scale centralized maintenance; The main equipment in East China is stable, while the load in Southwest China has rebounded. Some equipment in North China has low load, and regional price differences exist but the total amount is loose; Due to the low inventory in the overlapping industry, it is difficult to experience a deep decline, but it is also difficult to form a sustained supply gap.
Demand side: Traditional off-season, only refrigerant is needed to support the bottom
The traditional off-season effect will continue, with weak demand for traditional solvents such as high-temperature coatings, adhesives, and pharmaceutical pesticide intermediates in July. Downstream demand for small orders is high, and long orders are not locked in; R32 refrigerant is the most stable item, providing bottom line demand for stocking and export orders during peak season of air conditioning, sealing off the potential for a sharp decline, but not enough to drive the entire industry chain to actively replenish inventory; The export window generally follows the demand for overseas refrigerants, and there was no significant increase beyond expectations in July.
Market forecast:
The downward shift of the methanol center of gravity on the cost side weakens the support of raw materials, and demand is in the traditional off-season. Downstream solvents such as coatings, pharmaceuticals, and pesticides lack active replenishment power, and only refrigerants are needed to support the bottom. There is a lack of sustained volume growth driven by favorable factors, making it difficult for prices to further increase significantly; Combined with the industry maintaining a medium to high level of production and overall loose supply, it is difficult to form a sustained gap in the supply side, and manufacturers continue to pull up without transaction cooperation. The high price of liquid chlorine has solidified the bottom line of costs; The overall inventory pressure in the industry is not high, and factories still have the willingness to raise prices; R32 refrigerant matching requires stability and can seal deep drop space, with a low probability of significant downward exploration.
It is expected that the short-term dichloromethane market will likely maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, stable to strong operation, and limited upward elasticity.

1、 Overview of Market Trends
This week (July 22-28), the spot market price of PA66 remained stable, with a stable price of 18366.67 yuan/ton throughout the week, with a daily increase or decrease of 0% and no fluctuations during the week. From the perspective of the moving average signal, the 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average upwards to form a short-term golden cross technical signal. The price is in the mid to low range within a year, and the 60 day and 90 day cycles are still at a low level, indicating the establishment of a short-term technical bottom pattern.
2、 Cost analysis
The support for upstream raw materials is relatively strong: the reduction in maintenance of self owned adiponitrile units and the tight arrival of overseas sources of goods at the port have resulted in strong quotes for imported adiponitrile. Although the self owned butadiene based adiponitrile production capacity of leading enterprises such as Shenma Co., Ltd. is gradually increasing, it still takes time to fully increase the volume, and the space for intermediate costs to fall back is limited; The basic chemical raw materials such as pure benzene and butadiene have fluctuated upwards, and the cost of polymerization processing has rigidly supported the bottom price of PA66. The significant downward momentum has been sealed off.
The cost advantage of industry integration enterprises is highlighted: Pingmei relies on coal to hydrogen and adipic acid to support the entire industry chain, and this week’s profit is realized (with a pre profit of 66 million yuan in the first half of the year to turn losses). The enterprise has no pressure to sell goods at low prices to recover funds, and the spot price has stronger resistance to decline, limiting the downward space of the market.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
（1） Supply side
The overall production of the industry is moderate, and some small and medium-sized enterprises have reduced their losses and stopped production during the initial loss stage, resulting in a contraction of effective circulation of goods; Top manufacturers mainly focus on long order delivery, with limited availability of spot goods and limited increase in market circulation of spot goods.
During the week, there was no centralized maintenance to release new production capacity, and coupled with the continuous decline in prices in the early stage, traders hoarded goods at low prices and were reluctant to sell, resulting in a significant reduction in selling pressure. The supply side entered a stage of tight balance.
（2） Demand side
The downstream demand for traditional textile nylon filament and ordinary modified plastics is still flat, and the follow-up of orders for underwear, leather fabrics, and low-end engineering plastics is weak. There is a strong resistance to high priced raw materials, and bulk purchases are mostly based on small orders to replenish inventory.
The highlights are concentrated in the field of industrial silk: overseas export orders for new energy vehicle tire curtain fabrics and airbag industrial silk have steadily rebounded, and orders for high-end high value-added products have remained stable, providing a bottom line for large factories’ shipments. Structural demand has offset traditional downstream weaknesses.
There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment downstream, with terminals generally waiting for signals of price stabilization and not stocking up on a large scale. The upward guidance is weak, and the price increase lacks sustained demand pull.
4、 Short term market forecast
The bottom support is stable, and the probability of a major drop is extremely low: raw materials such as adiponitrile on the cost side are stuck at a high level, and the supply side’s circulation of goods is tightening, combined with the technical average golden cross. The bottom of PA66 spot has been basically consolidated, and further exploration space is limited.
The upward height is limited, and there is a high probability of narrow fluctuations and weak recovery: there is no significant increase in downstream demand for traditional textiles, and it is difficult to form a trend driven surge solely by cost and supply. In the short term, it is likely to fluctuate and consolidate in the range of 18200-19000 yuan/ton, relying on the incremental growth of industrial silk exports to slowly restore market confidence.
Key observation points: arrival volume of adiponitrile at the port, start-up status of downstream engineering plastic replenishment during peak season, and full load ramp up progress of Shenma adiponitrile plant.

The domestic fluorite price trend rose in July, with an average price of 3418.75 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 0.92% from the beginning price of 3387.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 8.96%.
Supply side: synchronized tightening of internal and external sources of goods in July
Domestically, safety accidents have occurred frequently in major fluorite producing areas such as Zhejiang, Fujian, Henan, and Hebei in recent times. The national inspection of mine safety production has been comprehensively tightened, and many mines are in a state of shutdown and rectification. The domestic circulation of raw ore continues to shrink. Since May, there have been reports of safety inspections in Zhejiang and Fujian regions, and the overall construction rate in East China has declined; Some mines and beneficiation plants in northern regions such as Hebei and Inner Mongolia have stopped production for maintenance, coupled with the concentrated shutdown of the main import source Mongolia, resulting in a significant reduction in the arrival of low-priced imported fluorite. This has led to a tight spot market for fluorite and an upward trend in the fluorite market.
In terms of imports, mines in Mongolia, the core source of domestic imports, stopped production for maintenance in mid July, and the short-term import of fluorite to ports is expected to experience a phased decline. The simultaneous tightening of internal and external sources of goods has led to a decrease in spot inventory in the market. Mining companies have a strong mentality of being reluctant to sell and raising prices due to the shortage of sources of goods, resulting in an increase in fluorite prices.
Demand side: downstream multiple favorable resonance
1. The hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and procurement has increased compared to before
The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is only about 50%, and most of them suffer from serious losses. Due to the concentrated parking of large northern hydrogen fluoride factories, the industry’s spot supply has significantly shrunk, and the original scattered orders have been diverted to other production enterprises. The supply of scattered spot goods is tight, and the bargaining space has increased. The negotiated price has significantly increased compared to the beginning of the month, and the willingness of enterprises to purchase fluorite continues to rise. The expected consumption of raw material fluorite has increased. In addition, the mainstream contract price rose to 14500-15000 yuan/ton in July, but the demand follow-up was clearly insufficient, and there were signs of capacity utilization shrinking, which limited the increase in domestic fluorite prices.
2. Refrigerant peak season pull
Refrigerants are the main source of demand downstream of fluorite. Since 2026, the prices of major refrigerant varieties such as R32, R125, and R134a have increased by 70% to over 180% compared to the beginning of the year. July is the peak season for air conditioning and cold chain consumption in summer, and downstream factories have taken the initiative to replenish inventory and demand has increased. The average price of refrigerant R22 continues to rise, driving the enthusiasm of upstream fluorite procurement to increase.
Market forecast: Overall, the rectification of mines on the supply side and the reduction of imports have solidified the price bottom, while the peak season for refrigerants on the demand side, the new AI liquid cooling track, and the expansion of fluorine chemical production capacity have formed multiple driving forces, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance in the market. However, it should be noted that the current downstream demand for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is insufficient, and the utilization rate of production capacity has shrunk. The supply and demand sides are still in a continuous game, and the price of fluorite market will mainly fluctuate and rise in the later stage.

In July, the hydrogen peroxide market showed mixed ups and downs, with price fluctuations mainly being downward. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 653 yuan/ton. On the 27th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% in price.
Factors affecting the rise and fall of hydrogen peroxide market in July
Supply side: Oversupply is the primary factor that suppresses prices. In July, the weekly operating rate of hydrogen peroxide in China was close to 70%, and the volume of goods from large factories increased, resulting in a very abundant market supply. Although there was a shutdown and maintenance of the equipment in mid July, the production and shipment of 300000 tons of new equipment in Guizhou during the same period offset the benefits brought by the maintenance.
Demand side: The main downstream industries have performed poorly, making it difficult to digest the increase in supply. Due to insufficient load, the caprolactam factory has reduced the amount of hydrogen peroxide used; Downstream industries such as papermaking and epichlorohydrin also hold onto essential procurement from multiple sources, and there has been no large-scale replenishment of inventory. This mentality of ‘buying up, not buying down’ further suppresses market transactions.
Regional differentiation of inventory: Due to abundant supply but average demand in the northern region, inventory pressure continues to rise; However, due to the continuous outsourcing of downstream caprolactam factories, inventory in the southern region has decreased, which is also a reason for regional price differentiation.
Technical Prediction of Business Society’s Hydrogen Peroxide Spot Analysis: From the price trend chart of Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide, it can be seen that the key indicator is that on June 29th, the 10 day moving average of hydrogen peroxide crossed the 20 day moving average, and hydrogen peroxide showed an upward trend. In mid July, the 10 day and 20 day moving averages of hydrogen peroxide gradually approached each other, with a positive narrowing of the moving average and a slowdown in the upward trend.
Auxiliary indicators: At the end of July, the price of hydrogen peroxide was at a 10 day low, a 20 day low, and a 30 day median, indicating that there is still room for an upward trend in the hydrogen peroxide market in the long run.
In summary, in early August, there was a long short game in the domestic hydrogen peroxide fundamentals, which eased the supply pressure and resulted in poor terminal demand. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the hydrogen peroxide market was at a medium low level in late July, with promising upward potential. At the beginning of August, the overall market for hydrogen peroxide fluctuated widely, with a high probability of increase, and the expected price is between 600 yuan/ton and 700 yuan/ton.

1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 132416.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 5.93%.
Macroscopically, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, Iran launches attacks on US military targets in multiple countries, the navigation volume in the Strait of Hormuz drops to zero at one point, and oil prices approach $100 per barrel. The soaring oil prices have reignited inflation concerns, with the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September jumping to over 78%, and the US dollar index reaching a three week high of 101.3. The United States has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 economies. On a macro level, a negative feedback chain of “soaring oil prices – rising inflation – expectations of interest rate hikes – strengthening of the US dollar” is formed, which systematically suppresses metals priced in US dollars.
On the supply side: Indonesia will significantly reduce its nickel ore RKAB quota from 379 million tons to 260 million tons in 2026, a decrease of over 30%, and the quota for the core mining area of Veda Bay will plummet by 71%; The quota approval has been adjusted from a fixed three-year cycle to an annual dynamic approval, significantly weakening the long-term production expectations of mines. The situation in the Middle East has pushed up sulfur prices, increased the cost of wet smelting, and restricted MHP production.
On the demand side: July is the traditional off-season for consumption, with weak demand for stainless steel terminals and a slower pace of steel plant procurement; Although the production of new energy ternary precursors remains at a high level, downstream only needs to replenish inventory at low prices, and large-scale replenishment has not yet occurred.
In summary, macroeconomic expectations have fluctuated, with tight mining policies and high costs providing bottom support. However, high inventory and off-season demand have suppressed upward space, and the dual suppression of macroeconomic geopolitical risks and interest rate hike expectations has been present throughout the week. It is expected that nickel will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.