In July 2026, domestic styrene butadiene rubber prices rose due to cost drivers. As of July 21, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the East China market was 13900 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.47% from 12358 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Sinopec has continuously raised the ex factory price by a cumulative amount of 1200 yuan/ton, and the market presents a differentiated pattern of strong cost support and weak demand constraint.
The tense situation in the Middle East has pushed up international crude oil prices, while upstream prices of butadiene and styrene have simultaneously strengthened, and the production cost of styrene butadiene continues to rise. In the middle of the month, the strengthening of crude oil combined with the maintenance of multiple units and the destocking of port inventory led to continuous increases in the ex factory price of butadiene by refineries. Downstream rubber demand also followed suit, resulting in a sharp rise in prices; The rising cost of pure benzene, low industry operating rates, and the diversion of overseas sources have supported the price increase of styrene. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 21, the price of butadiene was 10533 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.80% from 8866 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of July 21st, the price of styrene was 9080 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.87% from 7330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The demand side continues to drag down the upward space. In July, it was the traditional off-season for tires, with multiple factories arranging short-term maintenance. The inventory of finished products was high, and there was a clear resistance to high priced raw materials, only maintaining the purchase of essential needs. The market transaction volume was insufficient, and trading in the high price range was sluggish. The upward trend gradually slowed down, and there were signs of a slight rebound in the market at the end of the week. As of July 16th, the domestic semi steel tire production rate was 6.0%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises is 6.20%.
The styrene butadiene rubber market surged from March to April, with a bullish short-term moving average; The spot prices from April to June have been under long-term pressure from the moving averages of various cycles. In July, the spot price of styrene butadiene rubber hit the bottom and rebounded, breaking through the 10 day moving average upwards. The short-term moving average turned to form a golden cross expectation, indicating a strong short-term trend. But the 20, 30, and 60 day moving averages are still down, and the medium to long term bearish trend has not reversed.
Fundamentally speaking, in the short term, styrene butadiene rubber maintains a high and wide range of fluctuations. High level operation of crude oil with butadiene and styrene forms strong cost support; However, from July to September, tires are in the traditional off-season, with low factory production and high finished product inventory. Downstream consumers are resistant to high prices, and the upward space for styrene butadiene rubber is limited. There is downward pressure in the high price range. The peak season of “Golden September” in September is expected to see a temporary strengthening, with the concentrated replenishment of tires driving demand to recover, and prices may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend
On July 20th, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was 1156 yuan/ton, which was 2.06% higher than the average market price of 1133 yuan/ton on July 13th.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the price trend of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has stopped falling and risen. The operating rate of the equipment has been slightly adjusted, and the supply of ammonium sulfate in the market is stable. This week, the international urea market has strengthened, coupled with the increasing demand for ammonium sulfate, which is favorable for the domestic ammonium sulfate market. At present, the downstream of ammonium sulfate urgently needs procurement, and most of them still hold a cautious attitude.
market situation
As of July 20th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1000-1030 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1100-1150 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the ammonium sulfate market has been dominant. At present, the market price of ammonium sulfate continues to rise, and the trading atmosphere in the market has improved. It is expected that the short-term ammonium sulfate market will mainly operate with strong prices.

1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 130283.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.19% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 1.19%.
LME nickel inventory
Macroscopically, the overall bullish macro environment this week provided important support for the rebound of nickel prices. In June, the US CPI increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while the core PPI only increased by 4.7% year-on-year, significantly lower than market expectations. Additionally, the overall PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.3% month on month, marking the first decline since August last year. The comprehensive cooling of inflation has prompted traders to significantly reduce their expectations for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate hikes in July, with mainstream interest rate expectations now postponed from July to December. The decrease in tail risk of interest rates means that inventory financing costs, US dollar pressure, and forward discount rates have improved synchronously, with nickel prices, which are highly sensitive to the US dollar, showing a particularly strong reaction.
On the supply side: The expectation of tightening on the supply side this week has significantly strengthened, becoming the core driving force behind the rise in nickel prices. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officially stated on July 10th that there is no nationwide quota increase plan for 2026, and the total nickel mining quota for the year is locked in the range of 250 million to 260 million tons, a significant reduction from 379 million tons in 2025. The July revision window only opens special approval for local supporting smelting mines with raw material supply disruptions, with a very small overall incremental scale. Previously, the market generally played a game that the RKAB revision window in July would significantly open quotas, leading to a concentration of short funds entering the market and early pricing easing, which was bearish; After the official statement was made, the bearish investors concentrated on taking profits and leaving the market, coupled with the entry of bargain hunting funds, directly triggering a rise in the market.
On the demand side: The overall demand side remains weak, which significantly constrains the upward potential of nickel prices. Stainless steel, as the largest downstream demand, is estimated to produce 3.5999 million tons of crude steel in July, higher than the same period last year, but the terminal is in the traditional consumption off-season. However, the low prices have slightly released downstream demand for replenishment, and social inventory has not yet continued to accumulate; As of July 16th, the national social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0886 million tons, a decrease of 3.09% month on month, and the inventory level was lower than the same period in previous years. In terms of new energy, the demand for ternary cathode materials has encountered bottlenecks, and the demand for nickel in batteries lacks elasticity. The average price of battery grade nickel sulfate is hovering around 33100 yuan/ton and has not shown any upward trend. The nickel salt process has not kept up with the market trend, and the cost transmission at the smelting end is still not smooth. Overall, there are clear signs of a weakening in the total demand for new and old materials. The off-season production reduction of stainless steel and the bottleneck of new energy demand jointly suppress the upward space for nickel prices.
In summary, macro expectations are fluctuating, and on the supply side, the actual approval scale of quota increments will continue to disrupt market expectations before the deadline for RKAB revision application on July 31st; Even if new quotas are approved, there is a transmission lag between mining and smelting, which cannot be converted into effective supply in the short term. The two major logics of cost side sulfur shortage and Indonesia’s quota tightening are difficult to reverse in the short term. However, the off-season characteristics of stainless steel on the demand side continue, the bottleneck of demand for new energy ternary materials has not been broken, and the global explicit inventory is still at a high level. The drag from the demand side will continue to suppress the upward space. Overall, it is expected that nickel will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

Since July, the Shunding rubber market has ended three consecutive months of decline and once again ushered in an upward trend. As of July 16th, the price of Shunding rubber in the East China region was 13770 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.43% from 12470 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The strengthening of the cost side is the core driving force of this rebound.
At the cost level, the geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran has pushed up international oil prices, and the overseas market for butadiene in Asia continues to rise. Domestic butadiene prices have significantly increased compared to the beginning of the month, significantly raising the production costs of Shunding. Sinopec has continuously increased its factory prices, and the spot market has followed suit. As of July 16th, the price of butadiene was 10300 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.17% from 8866 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
On the supply side, the domestic Shunding production has steadily rebounded, with the weekly capacity utilization rate rising to 71.44%. The resumption of production at Yanshan Petrochemical has driven an increase in output, but the continuous maintenance of multiple units has limited the increment, and the market inventory pressure is not significant.
There are obvious constraints on the demand side. In early July, tire companies conducted centralized maintenance, and the operating rates of all steel and semi steel tires synchronously declined. Downstream only maintained essential procurement and resisted high priced raw materials, resulting in weak market transaction follow-up. Difficult to support a significant increase in adhesive prices. As of July 10th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 6.3%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has reached about 60%.
Market forecast:
Since the end of March 2026, the market for butadiene rubber has continued to decline, with the butadiene rubber price moving average chart showing a bearish trend. At the end of June, the price bottomed out and rebounded, with spot prices reaching the 10 day moving average. The short-term downward momentum has eased, but the current price is still under pressure from the 20 day moving average, and the medium-term bearish pattern has not been completely reversed. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on costs and tire production data.
Overall, against the backdrop of intensified geopolitical conflict risks, the cost support of butadiene rubber is strong. In addition, the expected maintenance of butadiene facilities in the third quarter provides bottom support, coupled with the strong linkage of natural rubber and low inventory, the price of butadiene rubber may mainly fluctuate with a strong bias. However, the traditional off-season in the downstream tire industry continues, and downstream procurement is difficult to increase in volume, which has certain limitations on the price increase of butadiene rubber.

In the first half of July, the industrial grade dimethyl carbonate market showed a slight and steady upward trend, with a narrow range of strong fluctuations. In the middle of the month, due to rising raw material costs and some equipment maintenance leading to tight spot support, market quotations slightly increased, and the focus of transactions slowly shifted upward. However, the follow-up of terminal demand was weak, the increase was limited, and there was no trend of upward trend. As of July 15th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3866 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.65% from the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Cost aspect: rigid support formed by rising raw material prices
In the first half of July, the upstream raw materials of methanol and epichlorohydrin in the dimethyl carbonate market saw a wide rise, and the overall raw material cost center shifted upward, providing sustained rigid support for the dimethyl carbonate market. The pressure on production costs for manufacturing enterprises has increased, coupled with the overall compression of profit margins in the industry. Manufacturers have weak willingness to sell at low prices, and are generally reluctant to sell at high prices. This has effectively supported the market price of dimethyl carbonate and curbed the risk of market downturn.
Supply side: Shortage of spot goods, slow pace of incremental growth
In early July, multiple sets of dimethyl carbonate maintenance facilities in China had not yet resumed operation, and the overall operating rate of the industry remained at a medium low level. The total amount of spot inventory in the market was low, and the tight spot market pattern provided strong support for market prices. In the middle of the year, some of the early parking facilities gradually resumed work, and the market spot quantity increased slightly. However, the progress of equipment resumption is slow, and the short-term new supply is limited, which cannot quickly alleviate the tight spot situation. At the same time, mainstream production enterprises have no inventory pressure, the overall supply rhythm is stable, and there is no phenomenon of bulk dumping. The overall good news on the market supply side still exists, but the strength of the good news is gradually weakening.
On the demand side: there is a strong need to support the bottom, and the increment is seriously insufficient
The overall lackluster performance on the demand side is the core factor restricting a significant increase in the market. The demand differentiation in the two core areas downstream is obvious: the demand in the lithium battery electrolyte field is relatively stable, and the inventory of the terminal new energy industry is stable, maintaining normal essential procurement and providing basic support for the market; The traditional downstream industries such as polycarbonate (PC), coatings, adhesives, etc. are in the off-season of traditional consumption, with insufficient terminal operating rates and weak overall industry trends. The purchasing enthusiasm of enterprises is low, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement and small order replenishment, without centralized stocking and large-scale replenishment actions.
Market forecast:
In late July, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is expected to continue a narrow range and strong oscillation trend, with overall growth slowing down and limited upward space. There is no risk of a major decline, and it is highly likely to maintain a stalemate and stable operation pattern. The core fluctuation range of the market is limited, and both upward and downward momentum are insufficient. The overall trend is mainly stable with slight fluctuations.