Aluminum prices fluctuate narrowly in June
The trend of domestic aluminum ingot prices is expected to decline in June 2026. As of June 30, 2026, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 22520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.95% from the market average price of 24201.67 yuan/ton on June 1.
The general logic of aluminum price operation in June is as follows:
The concentrated clearance of Middle Eastern geopolitical premiums and the strong hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve on the macro suppression of the US dollar are the core factors, combined with weak domestic demand during the off-season, expectations of loose supply in the future, the impact of institutional bearish research sentiment, and weakened linkage between domestic and foreign markets. As a result, aluminum prices have fluctuated downward from high levels, and the center of gravity has continued to shift downward throughout the month; The domestic high inventory is only slowly decreasing and cannot reverse the monthly weak trend.
Specific reasons:
1. The easing of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the comprehensive clearance of supply panic premiums in the early stage
The core driving force behind the rise in aluminum prices in the first half of the year was the obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the damage and shutdown of aluminum plants in the Middle East, the global aluminum supply gap in market transactions, and the accumulation of a geopolitical risk premium of 300-500 US dollars per ton for Lunan Aluminum. In June, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, and cross-strait shipping resumed. The expected resumption of production at damaged aluminum factories in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and other countries has increased. The narrative of tight supply in the early stage has completely reversed, and bulls have concentrated their positions and stepped down. London Aluminum fell sharply first, while Shanghai Aluminum passively followed suit. The LME aluminum spot premium quickly shifted from a high level to a discount, and the global “supply shortage” pricing logic collapsed, which was the most direct triggering factor for the weakening of aluminum prices in June.
2. Supply and expectation side: Domestic production rigidity, long-term overseas new production capacity suppressing prices
Domestic electrolytic aluminum has reached the production capacity red line of 45 million tons, with operating capacity maintaining a high level and operating rate close to 99%. Monthly production is steadily released, and there is no contraction in the supply side to support price space. Indonesia’s overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to climb and put into operation, and the market predicts that the global supply and demand gap will narrow or even become loose in the long term. The pressure on far month contracts will be stronger, dragging down the sentiment of near month spot prices. The implementation of export controls on Guinea bauxite has fallen short of the market’s aggressive expectations in the early stages. The overall looseness of alumina raw materials has weakened the cost support for aluminum plants, and the profitability of smelters is still acceptable. However, the willingness to reduce production is extremely low, and the expectation of supply contraction has been dashed.
3. Demand side: Traditional downstream enters seasonal off-season with weak domestic demand and insufficient increment to offset the weakness
In June, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises fell back to the range of 63% -64%, and the overall operating rate was sluggish; The construction of aluminum profiles (accounting for more than half of the domestic aluminum consumption) has only started at 55.8%, and the new construction of real estate continues to be weak, with few orders for profiles; Home appliances enter the off-season, air conditioning production declines year-on-year, and demand for ordinary aluminum materials weakens. Short term hedging of new energy increment is limited: the long-term aluminum consumption growth of photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and the power grid is determined, but the photovoltaic base is relatively high in the first half of the year, and the short-term increment pace slows down, which cannot offset the decline in traditional industries during the off-season; Downstream enterprises have a strong fear of high prices, only purchasing for essential needs and actively avoiding stocking up. Spot transactions are sluggish, and premiums have turned into discounts. Although aluminum exports have increased year-on-year, there is a 3-6 month cycle of order transmission, which makes it difficult to quickly digest the excess domestic spot and reverse the weak domestic demand pattern in the short term.

4. Inventory structure: Domestic social inventory is significantly higher year-on-year, and the pace of destocking is slow
As of the end of June, the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was about 1.205 million tons. Although the inventory was slowly reduced on a weekly basis, it was more than twice as high as the same period last year. The inventory pressure objectively exists, which continues to suppress the rebound of spot prices. The continuous decline of LME aluminum inventory in the external market has formed a “tight external and loose internal” pattern, while Shanghai LME continues to be low. In the internal market, the upward elasticity is weak, and the downward elasticity is greater, making it easier to follow LME aluminum’s decline.
5. Macro systemic bearish: Fed hawks exceed expectations, US dollar, stronger bond yields suppress industrial metals
The May CPI, core PCE, and non farm payroll data in the United States significantly exceeded expectations, highlighting inflation stickiness; The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in June kept interest rates unchanged, but the dot matrix collectively turned hawkish, with the market pricing increasing the probability of a September rate hike and the expectation of a rate cut within the year completely delayed. The US dollar index has remained above 101, reaching a 13 month high; The US dollar denominated London aluminum has fallen under pressure, and the linkage between domestic and foreign markets has dragged down Shanghai aluminum, resulting in a contraction in the overall valuation of bulk commodities. In the high real interest rate environment, the holding cost of interest free electrolytic aluminum has increased, speculative funds have reduced their holdings of non-ferrous metals, and cyclical sectors have collectively weakened, with northbound funds flowing out of the non-ferrous metals track.

In the second half of June, the propylene glycol market was suppressed by multiple factors such as the continuous decline in international oil prices, the disintegration of cost support, and weak downstream demand, resulting in a significant shift in market focus and prices falling below the level at the beginning of the month. As of June 26th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong region was 9033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.45% compared to the middle of the month.
Core driving factors
Cost: Decreased by over 10%, support weakened
The continuous decline in international oil prices has formed a systematic suppression on downstream chemical products. The prices of propylene and epichlorohydrin have continued to decline, with epichlorohydrin falling by more than 10%. The decline is faster and deeper, while propylene glycol is experiencing a triple tightening due to reduced production during maintenance, decreased import supply, and tightened export sources. This has locked in a deep downward space for propylene glycol, significantly weakening the cost support at the source of the propylene glycol industry chain.
Supply: Centralized device maintenance, effective supply contraction
In May, exports increased by 155.79% year-on-year, with a large amount of goods exported and low inventory in domestic factories; Imports decreased by 15.25% month on month, with insufficient replenishment of overseas sources; In June, several propylene glycol plants in Shandong and East China underwent planned shutdowns for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in short-term spot circulation and almost no inventory in factories, with limited room for deep decline.
Requirement: Continuation of traditional off-season
The traditional off-season demand for resins and polyethers downstream lacks centralized stocking nodes, limiting the potential for industrial grade price increases; Centralized production of computing power rooms, continuous increase in procurement of liquid cooled coolant, sustained growth in overseas export orders, continuous strengthening of rigid demand for high-purity propylene glycol, and continuous widening of grade price differences; As the end of July approaches the traditional resin peak season stocking window, there is a slight expectation of downstream restocking in the latter half of the year, which is expected to drive a slight recovery in industrial grade prices.
Market forecast: Short term low-level oscillation builds bottom, decline gradually slows down
Technical aspect: After continuous oversold, the downward rate of the 10 day moving average gradually narrows, and the negative value of the moving average enters the “negative narrowing” stage, with the downward momentum continuing to decline; In the short term, it is difficult to see a reversal signal of the mean difference from negative to positive, and there is no condition for rapid rebound;
Fundamental support: The maintenance cycle of the device has not completely ended, and there is still support at the bottom of the supply end; Traditional downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, with the market mainly focused on rigid demand transactions;
Short term propylene glycol is expected to experience narrow fluctuations. Need to pay attention to changes in the raw material market.

This week (June 22-28), the overall domestic PTA market maintained a downward trend, driven by the cost of crude oil. On June 28, the average price of PTA spot market in East China was 5734 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.10% from the beginning of the week.
On the cost side, the geopolitical premium of crude oil has subsided. As of June 25th, the settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.92 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $75.50 per barrel. The geopolitical tension has cooled down, the risk of navigation in the Red Sea/Hormuz has fallen, and international crude oil prices have rapidly rebounded from high levels. Asian PX follows the weakening of crude oil, and the cost center of PTA shifts downwards.
On the supply side, there is a game of maintenance and resumption of production, with low inventory providing weak support. The production rate remains at a relatively low level around 64%, with factory inventory continuously decreasing and spot inventory being low.
On the demand side, it is still in the traditional textile off-season of June, with sustained weakness and no overall driving force. The production of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is sluggish, the inventory of raw fabrics is accumulating, and the production and sales of polyester filament are weak. Downstream polyester factories are generally losing money and have no intention of replenishing inventory, only picking up goods as needed, with weak upward transmission. The demand for bottle flakes is slightly offsetting the weakness of filament, but it is not enough to improve overall demand.
Analysts believe that in the short term, crude oil volatility remains the dominant factor. If oil prices rebound, PTA will undergo technical repairs, while if oil prices continue to decline, they will continue to explore the bottom. Combined with weak demand during the off-season, expectations of resuming production, and a decrease in downstream losses. Under the combination of negative factors, PTA prices are mainly fluctuating weakly.

Isooctanol prices stop rising and fall
On June 23rd, the price of isooctanol was 7900 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 0.84% compared to the price of 7966.67 yuan/ton on June 1st; Compared to June 12th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 4.44% to 8266.67 yuan/ton. The geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran has eased, the international crude oil risk premium has subsided, propylene has significantly declined, the cost support for isooctanol has weakened, and the price of isooctanol has risen and fallen.
Cost reduction of propylene
On June 23rd, the propylene price was 7684.33 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 13.02% compared to the propylene price of 8834.33 yuan/ton on June 12th. The geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran has eased, the international crude oil risk premium has subsided, the price of propylene has dropped significantly, and the downward pressure on isooctanol has increased.
Adequate supply of isooctanol
It is expected to increase production capacity by approximately 1.14 million tons per year in 2026, with a total supply of 3.73 million tons. In June, multiple new units were gradually put into operation, and the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased slightly. The supply of isooctanol was sufficient, and the support for the price increase of isooctanol weakened.
Downstream demand is weak
The traditional off-season in the downstream plasticizer industry has reduced production to around 50%; There has been no substantial improvement in demand in the fields of terminal real estate, building materials, etc. Downstream essential procurement is the main focus, with obvious resistance to high priced raw materials. Downstream factories purchase and use at will, resist high prices, and high priced transactions are rare. Traders are forced to lower prices to sell and reduce inventory.
Narrowing of exit window
The recovery of crude oil supply in the Middle East and the increase in imported resources in Southeast Asia have led to a decrease in the cost-effectiveness of domestic isooctanol exports, a decrease in expectations for isooctanol exports, and an inability for external demand to digest excess domestic supply, further suppressing domestic prices.
Future prospects
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol products, on the cost side, crude oil and propylene are operating weakly, making it difficult for costs to rebound strongly; On the supply side: new production capacity continues to be put into operation, with relatively high levels of production, and inventory pressure is difficult to alleviate; On the demand side: July is still the traditional off-season downstream, and demand is difficult to quickly recover; In the future, short-term isooctanol is mainly characterized by weak fluctuations and narrow range consolidation, with limited rebound height. The core pressure range is 8100-8200 yuan/ton, with support below 7700-7800 yuan/ton.

This week (6.12-18), PVC showed a pattern of futures volatility and weakness, spot price decline and volume increase, weak supply and demand, high inventory suppression, and cost bottoming out. The core contradiction in the market is the sustained low demand during the off-season, the slight resumption of supply and the worsening of export expectations. Prices are prone to fall but difficult to rise, and the downward space is limited by production costs.
1、 Futures market
The center of gravity continued to shift downwards during the week, falling continuously from Monday to Thursday. On June 18th, it closed at 4521 yuan/ton, with a high point of 4691 and a low point of 4486. The cumulative decline for the whole week exceeded 170 yuan; The main position maintains a net short position, with long positions continuously reducing their holdings and short positions dominating. The monthly price difference is weak, and the far month premium has narrowed.
2、 Spot market
Mainstream in East China: The SG-5 model of carbide method is reported at 4520-4630 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 80-120 yuan/ton; According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the SG-5 weekly decline of East China Dianshi Method was 2.84%. Traders offered discounts to sell their goods, and downstream only needed small batches of replenishment without centralized stocking. Market transactions were light, and spot prices rose slightly compared to futures, with a basis difference of 30-60 yuan/ton.
3、 Factor analysis
Supply side: slight increase in production, limited increase in maintenance, marginal amplification of supply pressure
This week, the overall capacity utilization rate of PVC is close to 70%, slightly recovering from last week. The Northwest Calcium Carbide Plant has slightly increased the start of production, with sporadic restarts of previous parking facilities; The operating rate of ethylene method is still not high, about 50%. Several maintenance facilities along the coast are gradually recovering, and the start of ethylene production is also gradually stabilizing, without further decline, but still at a low level in previous years.
Raw material cost: Slightly supported by the cost of electrical aggregate materials
Calcium carbide: The mainstream price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is around 2400 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 100 yuan within the week. The production loss of calcium carbide method has narrowed to a certain extent, but the industry as a whole is still in the loss range; According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of calcium carbide rebounded in the middle of this week, with a rebound rate of 0.87% within the week.
Ethylene: The international price of ethylene this week is between 1140-1150 US dollars/ton, and the weakening of crude oil has dragged down the cost of ethylene production, further compressing the profit of ethylene production; The comprehensive cost has formed a pattern of having a bottom and no upper strength, and the significant downward space is locked in by raw material costs.
Demand side: Weakening of internal and external demand, market entering off-season
The domestic downstream product production has fallen across the board, and the downstream production rate this week is still relatively low, generally around 40%, significantly lower than the same period in history. The downstream real estate market is sluggish, and industries such as profiles and pipes are generally impacted. In addition, terminal doors and windows, as well as home decoration, have also been dragged down, resulting in a decline in upstream PVC demand. Terminal distributors are reducing inventory and generally slowing down raw material procurement.
In terms of exports, the data is also not ideal. India’s zero tariff exemption expires on June 30th, and there is an expected effect of the 7.5% import tariff recovery. The export performance has declined, and external procurement is generally cautious, especially with a significant decrease in Indian orders.
4、 Future forecast
In the short term, supply side maintenance is gradually slowing down, and production is expected to increase; But the domestic downstream demand is relatively weak, and the two will form a game, with negative and positive factors offsetting each other to some extent in the future. Inventory remains an important factor that cannot be ignored, as weak demand leads to ongoing accumulation of inventory. Overall, the weak supply-demand pattern will continue next week, with the market maintaining a narrow range of weak fluctuations.