1、 Price trend
The domestic isopropanol market price fell in June. On June 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 7683.33 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the average price was 6191.66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.41% compared to the beginning of the month.
The domestic isopropanol market price fell in June. The market situation was light in the first half of the year, and downstream terminal demand was poor. The isopropanol market fluctuated slightly and fell. In the middle of the month, the price of raw material acetone dropped significantly, with weak cost support and weak demand, resulting in a decline in the market price of isopropanol. In the latter half of the year, raw materials continued to weaken, downstream demand was average, and overall market prices for isopropanol fell. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 5900-6100 yuan/ton; The majority of prices in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu region are around 6200-6400 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price fluctuated and fell in June. On June 1st, the average price of acetone was 6950 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the average price was 5025 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 27.7%. At present, the overall trading atmosphere is average, and it is expected that the acetone market will maintain a small range of fluctuations in the short term.
In terms of raw material propylene, the domestic propylene market price fluctuated and fell in June. On June 1st, the market average was 9037.67 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the average price was 7244.33 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 19.84%. At present, the cost support for propylene is relatively weak, but the factory inventory is low, and it is expected that the propylene market price will be strong in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the overall isopropanol market price fell in June. At the end of the month, manufacturers reported a slight correction in their offers, with a narrow upward trend in the focus of their offers. Actual trading is cautious, so it is advisable to wait and see. It is expected that the isopropanol market will experience slight fluctuations in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the trend of the raw material market.

Aluminum prices fluctuate narrowly in June
The trend of domestic aluminum ingot prices is expected to decline in June 2026. As of June 30, 2026, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 22520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.95% from the market average price of 24201.67 yuan/ton on June 1.
The general logic of aluminum price operation in June is as follows:
The concentrated clearance of Middle Eastern geopolitical premiums and the strong hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve on the macro suppression of the US dollar are the core factors, combined with weak domestic demand during the off-season, expectations of loose supply in the future, the impact of institutional bearish research sentiment, and weakened linkage between domestic and foreign markets. As a result, aluminum prices have fluctuated downward from high levels, and the center of gravity has continued to shift downward throughout the month; The domestic high inventory is only slowly decreasing and cannot reverse the monthly weak trend.
Specific reasons:
1. The easing of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the comprehensive clearance of supply panic premiums in the early stage
The core driving force behind the rise in aluminum prices in the first half of the year was the obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the damage and shutdown of aluminum plants in the Middle East, the global aluminum supply gap in market transactions, and the accumulation of a geopolitical risk premium of 300-500 US dollars per ton for Lunan Aluminum. In June, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, and cross-strait shipping resumed. The expected resumption of production at damaged aluminum factories in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and other countries has increased. The narrative of tight supply in the early stage has completely reversed, and bulls have concentrated their positions and stepped down. London Aluminum fell sharply first, while Shanghai Aluminum passively followed suit. The LME aluminum spot premium quickly shifted from a high level to a discount, and the global “supply shortage” pricing logic collapsed, which was the most direct triggering factor for the weakening of aluminum prices in June.
2. Supply and expectation side: Domestic production rigidity, long-term overseas new production capacity suppressing prices
Domestic electrolytic aluminum has reached the production capacity red line of 45 million tons, with operating capacity maintaining a high level and operating rate close to 99%. Monthly production is steadily released, and there is no contraction in the supply side to support price space. Indonesia’s overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to climb and put into operation, and the market predicts that the global supply and demand gap will narrow or even become loose in the long term. The pressure on far month contracts will be stronger, dragging down the sentiment of near month spot prices. The implementation of export controls on Guinea bauxite has fallen short of the market’s aggressive expectations in the early stages. The overall looseness of alumina raw materials has weakened the cost support for aluminum plants, and the profitability of smelters is still acceptable. However, the willingness to reduce production is extremely low, and the expectation of supply contraction has been dashed.
3. Demand side: Traditional downstream enters seasonal off-season with weak domestic demand and insufficient increment to offset the weakness
In June, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises fell back to the range of 63% -64%, and the overall operating rate was sluggish; The construction of aluminum profiles (accounting for more than half of the domestic aluminum consumption) has only started at 55.8%, and the new construction of real estate continues to be weak, with few orders for profiles; Home appliances enter the off-season, air conditioning production declines year-on-year, and demand for ordinary aluminum materials weakens. Short term hedging of new energy increment is limited: the long-term aluminum consumption growth of photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and the power grid is determined, but the photovoltaic base is relatively high in the first half of the year, and the short-term increment pace slows down, which cannot offset the decline in traditional industries during the off-season; Downstream enterprises have a strong fear of high prices, only purchasing for essential needs and actively avoiding stocking up. Spot transactions are sluggish, and premiums have turned into discounts. Although aluminum exports have increased year-on-year, there is a 3-6 month cycle of order transmission, which makes it difficult to quickly digest the excess domestic spot and reverse the weak domestic demand pattern in the short term.

4. Inventory structure: Domestic social inventory is significantly higher year-on-year, and the pace of destocking is slow
As of the end of June, the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was about 1.205 million tons. Although the inventory was slowly reduced on a weekly basis, it was more than twice as high as the same period last year. The inventory pressure objectively exists, which continues to suppress the rebound of spot prices. The continuous decline of LME aluminum inventory in the external market has formed a “tight external and loose internal” pattern, while Shanghai LME continues to be low. In the internal market, the upward elasticity is weak, and the downward elasticity is greater, making it easier to follow LME aluminum’s decline.
5. Macro systemic bearish: Fed hawks exceed expectations, US dollar, stronger bond yields suppress industrial metals
The May CPI, core PCE, and non farm payroll data in the United States significantly exceeded expectations, highlighting inflation stickiness; The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in June kept interest rates unchanged, but the dot matrix collectively turned hawkish, with the market pricing increasing the probability of a September rate hike and the expectation of a rate cut within the year completely delayed. The US dollar index has remained above 101, reaching a 13 month high; The US dollar denominated London aluminum has fallen under pressure, and the linkage between domestic and foreign markets has dragged down Shanghai aluminum, resulting in a contraction in the overall valuation of bulk commodities. In the high real interest rate environment, the holding cost of interest free electrolytic aluminum has increased, speculative funds have reduced their holdings of non-ferrous metals, and cyclical sectors have collectively weakened, with northbound funds flowing out of the non-ferrous metals track.

In the second half of June, the propylene glycol market was suppressed by multiple factors such as the continuous decline in international oil prices, the disintegration of cost support, and weak downstream demand, resulting in a significant shift in market focus and prices falling below the level at the beginning of the month. As of June 26th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong region was 9033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.45% compared to the middle of the month.
Core driving factors
Cost: Decreased by over 10%, support weakened
The continuous decline in international oil prices has formed a systematic suppression on downstream chemical products. The prices of propylene and epichlorohydrin have continued to decline, with epichlorohydrin falling by more than 10%. The decline is faster and deeper, while propylene glycol is experiencing a triple tightening due to reduced production during maintenance, decreased import supply, and tightened export sources. This has locked in a deep downward space for propylene glycol, significantly weakening the cost support at the source of the propylene glycol industry chain.
Supply: Centralized device maintenance, effective supply contraction
In May, exports increased by 155.79% year-on-year, with a large amount of goods exported and low inventory in domestic factories; Imports decreased by 15.25% month on month, with insufficient replenishment of overseas sources; In June, several propylene glycol plants in Shandong and East China underwent planned shutdowns for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in short-term spot circulation and almost no inventory in factories, with limited room for deep decline.
Requirement: Continuation of traditional off-season
The traditional off-season demand for resins and polyethers downstream lacks centralized stocking nodes, limiting the potential for industrial grade price increases; Centralized production of computing power rooms, continuous increase in procurement of liquid cooled coolant, sustained growth in overseas export orders, continuous strengthening of rigid demand for high-purity propylene glycol, and continuous widening of grade price differences; As the end of July approaches the traditional resin peak season stocking window, there is a slight expectation of downstream restocking in the latter half of the year, which is expected to drive a slight recovery in industrial grade prices.
Market forecast: Short term low-level oscillation builds bottom, decline gradually slows down
Technical aspect: After continuous oversold, the downward rate of the 10 day moving average gradually narrows, and the negative value of the moving average enters the “negative narrowing” stage, with the downward momentum continuing to decline; In the short term, it is difficult to see a reversal signal of the mean difference from negative to positive, and there is no condition for rapid rebound;
Fundamental support: The maintenance cycle of the device has not completely ended, and there is still support at the bottom of the supply end; Traditional downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, with the market mainly focused on rigid demand transactions;
Short term propylene glycol is expected to experience narrow fluctuations. Need to pay attention to changes in the raw material market.

This week (June 22-28), the overall domestic PTA market maintained a downward trend, driven by the cost of crude oil. On June 28, the average price of PTA spot market in East China was 5734 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.10% from the beginning of the week.
On the cost side, the geopolitical premium of crude oil has subsided. As of June 25th, the settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.92 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $75.50 per barrel. The geopolitical tension has cooled down, the risk of navigation in the Red Sea/Hormuz has fallen, and international crude oil prices have rapidly rebounded from high levels. Asian PX follows the weakening of crude oil, and the cost center of PTA shifts downwards.
On the supply side, there is a game of maintenance and resumption of production, with low inventory providing weak support. The production rate remains at a relatively low level around 64%, with factory inventory continuously decreasing and spot inventory being low.
On the demand side, it is still in the traditional textile off-season of June, with sustained weakness and no overall driving force. The production of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is sluggish, the inventory of raw fabrics is accumulating, and the production and sales of polyester filament are weak. Downstream polyester factories are generally losing money and have no intention of replenishing inventory, only picking up goods as needed, with weak upward transmission. The demand for bottle flakes is slightly offsetting the weakness of filament, but it is not enough to improve overall demand.
Analysts believe that in the short term, crude oil volatility remains the dominant factor. If oil prices rebound, PTA will undergo technical repairs, while if oil prices continue to decline, they will continue to explore the bottom. Combined with weak demand during the off-season, expectations of resuming production, and a decrease in downstream losses. Under the combination of negative factors, PTA prices are mainly fluctuating weakly.

Isooctanol prices stop rising and fall
On June 23rd, the price of isooctanol was 7900 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 0.84% compared to the price of 7966.67 yuan/ton on June 1st; Compared to June 12th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 4.44% to 8266.67 yuan/ton. The geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran has eased, the international crude oil risk premium has subsided, propylene has significantly declined, the cost support for isooctanol has weakened, and the price of isooctanol has risen and fallen.
Cost reduction of propylene
On June 23rd, the propylene price was 7684.33 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 13.02% compared to the propylene price of 8834.33 yuan/ton on June 12th. The geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran has eased, the international crude oil risk premium has subsided, the price of propylene has dropped significantly, and the downward pressure on isooctanol has increased.
Adequate supply of isooctanol
It is expected to increase production capacity by approximately 1.14 million tons per year in 2026, with a total supply of 3.73 million tons. In June, multiple new units were gradually put into operation, and the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased slightly. The supply of isooctanol was sufficient, and the support for the price increase of isooctanol weakened.
Downstream demand is weak
The traditional off-season in the downstream plasticizer industry has reduced production to around 50%; There has been no substantial improvement in demand in the fields of terminal real estate, building materials, etc. Downstream essential procurement is the main focus, with obvious resistance to high priced raw materials. Downstream factories purchase and use at will, resist high prices, and high priced transactions are rare. Traders are forced to lower prices to sell and reduce inventory.
Narrowing of exit window
The recovery of crude oil supply in the Middle East and the increase in imported resources in Southeast Asia have led to a decrease in the cost-effectiveness of domestic isooctanol exports, a decrease in expectations for isooctanol exports, and an inability for external demand to digest excess domestic supply, further suppressing domestic prices.
Future prospects
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol products, on the cost side, crude oil and propylene are operating weakly, making it difficult for costs to rebound strongly; On the supply side: new production capacity continues to be put into operation, with relatively high levels of production, and inventory pressure is difficult to alleviate; On the demand side: July is still the traditional off-season downstream, and demand is difficult to quickly recover; In the future, short-term isooctanol is mainly characterized by weak fluctuations and narrow range consolidation, with limited rebound height. The core pressure range is 8100-8200 yuan/ton, with support below 7700-7800 yuan/ton.