LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 9550 yuan/ton on September 14th and 9491 yuan/ton on September 18th, a decrease of 0.61%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 12200 yuan/ton on September 14th and 12266 yuan/ton on September 18th, an increase of 0.55%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on September 14th was 11100 yuan/ton, and on September 18th it was 10800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.70%.
In September, polyethylene maintenance facilities resumed production one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has increased. There are still plans to resume production of facilities in the future, and coupled with the expectation of new production capacity, supply pressure will gradually accumulate, and the reality of tight balance will shift towards a bearish expectation.
The overall downstream demand is weak, and only the demand for thin films has certain resilience. The peak season for agricultural film and wire drawing did not meet expectations, and the market maintained on-demand procurement.
Recently, crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, with a slight decline in oil prices and weakened cost support. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike has pushed up the US dollar, suppressing the center of gravity of commodity prices and increasing market volatility.
Short term: Polyethylene mainly oscillates at high levels. Low inventory levels are difficult to sustain a deep decline, but the resumption of production and high prices have limited room for sustained growth in demand.

1、 Price trend
As of September 16th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises is 6000 yuan/ton. DMF continues to be strong this week and has entered an accelerated upward phase. Regional spot delivery prices reference: 5850-6000 yuan/ton in Guangdong, South China, 5600-5700 yuan/ton in Shandong and surrounding areas. Mainstream enterprises generally quote above 6000 yuan/ton.
2、 Cause analysis
Cost wise: Methanol port inventory hit a new low of 381800 tons since 2013, a year-on-year decrease of 69.87%; Taicang spot goods are strongly supported at 3765-3790 yuan/ton, but high prices have shown negative feedback. The supply of synthetic ammonia/liquid ammonia in the north is tight beyond expectations, with mainstream prices in Shandong reaching 2690-2930 yuan/ton, setting a new high for the second half of the year. The cost of dimethylamine has risen, directly affecting the methanol end: port inventories have fallen to the lowest level since 2013, and imports continue to contract due to the shutdown of Iranian facilities and the obstruction of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The short-term supply gap is difficult to fill, but we need to be vigilant about high profits stimulating production resumption – the national operating rate of methanol is 82.89%. In mid to late September, the expectation of multiple sets of facilities restarting has heated up. There have been signs of auction failure and market correction in mainland China this weekend, limiting upward elasticity. Synthetic ammonia end: Coking enterprises have reduced losses and delayed the resumption of Relieve, the quasi price of liquid amino acid has increased to 2950 yuan/ton within the week.
Supply side: The biggest variable this week is the shutdown and maintenance of a coal gasification unit and supporting products starting from September 8th, with a cycle of about 20 days, which is expected to affect revenue of 230 million yuan. The coal gasification unit is the “heart” of downstream product lines such as DMF, and this maintenance further strengthens the supply contraction logic. Starting from mid to late August, the 150000 ton/year plant in Jingzhou will undergo maintenance for about three weeks. As a result, the output of top enterprises is limited, and there is no pressure on factory inventory and a strong willingness to raise prices. The overall production of the industry has declined compared to the previous period.
Demand situation: PU pulp/synthetic leather (consumption ratio of 60%+): The operating rate of ordinary pulp this week was 61%, unchanged from the previous week. The wet process in East China was 8200-8700 yuan/ton, and the dry process was 8500-9000 yuan/ton, with a stable focus. The pulp factory mainly focuses on digesting the increase in DMF and scheduling production according to the plan, with limited new orders and mostly executing pre contracts. The terminal: domestic trade in shoes, clothing, bags and suitcases is weak, and foreign trade is not as good as in previous years. The leather factory only replenishes according to demand without centralized stocking. Autumn and winter orders are “produced according to plan with limited growth”. Electronic grade DMF: independent and strong, but small in size; The demand for acrylic fiber and pharmaceutical solvents is rigid but difficult to change the overall situation. Export: Southeast Asia/South Asia orders remain stable, with only a small amount of domestic surplus diverted.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the benchmark scenario (with a high probability) is that DMF will remain strongly volatile and the center of gravity will shift slightly upwards in the remaining time of September. The price reference for Jiangsu is in the range of 5600-6300 yuan/ton, supported by: ① Hualu Hengsheng’s maintenance will continue until the end of September, with tight spot prices continuing; ② low methanol inventory and geopolitical premium are difficult to break in the short term; ③ demand during the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season is still slowly released.

In the first half of September, domestic nitrile rubber fluctuated upwards, with a price of 18525 yuan/ton as of September 15th, an increase of 6.16% from 17450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of September 15th, the offer price for Lanhua Nitrile 3305E in East China is between 17900 and 18300 yuan/ton; Nandi Nitrile 1052 mainstream package price ranges from 19200 to 19400 yuan/ton.
The raw material butadiene was supported by the maintenance of the cracking unit, and the inventory in East China ports dropped to around 32000 tons. In September, the price increased by 7.5%, forming a cost push; Acrylonitrile production remains in the range of 69% -71%, with a slight decrease in prices, which has limited impact on the market. The price of butadiene has risen from 13333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 14333 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.50%; The price of acrylonitrile has dropped from 11433 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.25%.
The operating rate of nitrile rubber factories remains at a high level of 82% -86%, with low inventory in the factory. The arrival of imported goods from Japan and South Korea has slowed down compared to the previous period, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, but there is no obvious shortage of goods.
48% -53% of downstream automotive seals and rubber hose samples have started production, and high-end new energy supporting brands are in high demand and stable; The nitrile glove industry has weak orders, and downstream product companies only maintain a safe inventory of 7-10 days’ worth of raw materials. There is a general demand for small orders, and there is a lack of willingness to chase high prices and replenish inventory. The acceptance of high priced sources is also low.
Market forecast:
The price of nitrile rubber continued to rise in September, successively reaching the 5-day, 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, and 60 day moving averages. The moving averages of each cycle turned upwards synchronously, forming a bullish arrangement and establishing a short-term upward trend. The price is supported by the moving average and oscillates upwards, with the lower moving average forming strong support. But after the current continuous rebound in prices, there are some signs of overbought in the short term, and the upward momentum has weakened. If there is no new positive driving force, the market is likely to fluctuate at a high level. We need to be alert to the risk of rising and falling, and focus on observing the effectiveness of moving average support and changes in trading volume.
Overall, the current nitrile rubber market is constrained by the dual factors of high costs and demand suppression. The high price of raw material butadiene and the continued high international crude oil prices still provide support for nitrile rubber costs, but downstream absorption is weak to suppress prices. If butadiene continues to strengthen in the later stage, the market will continue to rise; Once the raw materials fall back, nitrile may also experience a pullback.

Recently, the domestic formic acid market has shown a ladder like upward trend of “stabilizing first, then rising, and stabilizing at a high level”. The overall market activity continues to increase, and the price center steadily moves upward. As of September 14th, the benchmark price of industrial grade formic acid was 2400 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.29% from 2100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In the past week, the market has gradually shifted from an initial supply-demand balance sideways state to an upward trend with demand recovery and cost support, and finally stabilized at a temporary high. The overall stable to strong operating trend of the industry is clear, and the market has a strong bullish atmosphere.
The price has started two rounds of steady upward trend, and the market vitality has been fully activated. Driven by the favorable consumption of the upcoming Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, downstream terminal stocking expectations continue to rise, becoming the core trigger for this round of price increases. Even before the market started, mainstream production enterprises had already laid out ahead and concentrated on raising their factory quotations, directly pushing the market price center upward in the first round. The average transaction price increased by 4.55% to 2300 yuan/ton. After the price increase, the market did not show a pullback trend. Even though the industry inventory showed a slight upward trend, it did not suppress the market. The continuous release of downstream stocking demand effectively offset the increase in inventory, and the market’s price logic continued to strengthen.
Subsequently, the market situation rose again, with prices breaking through the previous platform, and the average transaction price rose to 2400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4.35%, completing the second effective rise of the week. This round of price hikes is not solely driven by demand, but rather the result of a mutually beneficial resonance between the cost and demand sides. The rigid support on the cost side has established a bottom range for the formic acid market price, effectively limiting the downward space of the market; With the arrival of the peak season for stocking up during the Double Festival on the demand side, downstream procurement demand continues to improve marginally, and the market transaction atmosphere continues to improve. At the same time, production enterprises have a clear willingness to raise prices, and the market’s reluctance to sell has intensified, further driving prices steadily higher.
Later this week, the formic acid market tended to stabilize, with prices remaining stable in the high range of 2400 yuan/ton and continuing to operate without significant fluctuations in the market. The market entered a high digestion stage. At this time, the cost side support is still stable and has become the core cornerstone for maintaining market stability. Coupled with the positive market atmosphere driven by previous price increases, the bullish sentiment in the market has not subsided. Although market prices have temporarily stabilized, there is still room for downstream stocking demand to be released, and the industry supply and demand pattern continues to improve. There is still potential for further upward momentum in the market.
Overall, the nodal demand dividend of dual season stocking, rigid support on the cost side, and manufacturer price manipulation are the three core factors driving the strength of this round of market trend, while the continuous improvement of the phased supply and demand pattern provides solid fundamental guarantees for price increases. Looking ahead to the short-term market, the favorable factors in the formic acid industry have not yet subsided, and downstream stocking demand is expected to continue to be released. The cost support is stable, and the overall market will continue to operate in a stable to strong pattern, with the possibility of further price increases. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the progress of downstream centralized stocking, fluctuations in raw material costs, and changes in industry inventory.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 9123 yuan/ton on September 7th and 9466 yuan/ton on September 11th, an increase of 3.76%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11900 yuan/ton on September 7th and 12200 yuan/ton on September 11th, an increase of 2.52%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on September 7th was 10925 yuan/ton, and on September 11th it was 11100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60%.
In August, multiple sets of PE equipment in China underwent centralized maintenance, resulting in a contraction of supply and a decrease in petrochemical inventory, while spot support increased. The maintenance equipment will resume production in September, and domestic supply will gradually rebound. The short-term supply pressure is still limited, and the subsequent increase in supply will gradually become apparent.
September has entered the traditional peak season for agricultural film, and demand has rebounded compared to the previous month. But the profits of downstream products are squeezed by the rise in raw material prices, and many enterprises are reluctant to stock up in large quantities due to their urgent needs. Demand can only support the bottom, and it is difficult to sustain a significant increase in prices.
International crude oil is boosted by geopolitical factors, and the cost of oil to PE production has risen, which is the core support of this round of market trend. The fluctuation of coal raw material for coal to PE is not significant, and the cost is relatively stable. If crude oil subsequently falls, the cost support for oil production will weaken, and the market will be under pressure accordingly.
The current PE market is driven by both rising costs and previous supply contraction. Short term reliance on low inventory and peak season for agricultural film to maintain high volatility. With the resumption of production and the gradual realization of peak season expectations, there is a risk of a downturn in the market in the middle and later stages.