This week, the overall supply and demand fundamentals remained stable, downstream users’ purchasing enthusiasm was lower than before, the industry’s capacity utilization rate remained above 80%, excess inventory increased, and the market fluctuated downward. As of December 12th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 7850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week.
Supply surplus:
There is no fluctuation in the equipment during the cycle, and the supply is still saturated. However, due to the lower purchasing enthusiasm of downstream users compared to the previous period, the market maintains a situation of oversupply, and the inventory of acrylonitrile factories is difficult to transfer, resulting in an increase in inventory for some enterprises. However, cost pressures continue to exist, and industry players are also concerned about supply variables, so intermediaries are also cautious in their operations, resulting in a slower downward trend in the market. According to statistics, as of December 11th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 80.6%, unchanged from the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 91800 tons, which is the same as the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 58000 tons, an increase of 0.255 million tons from last week, with some companies experiencing an increase in inventory.
Weak demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 70.53%, an increase of 2.23% compared to last week, and the load of Jilin Petrochemical and other equipment has increased; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 76.53%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 55.69%, which was -0.18% compared to last week. Overall, although demand has increased, the increment is not significant, and the overall demand is still weak.
Cost increase:
During the week, the price of upstream propylene remained firm, and the cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production continued to increase. However, the fluctuation of acrylonitrile prices led to an increase in production losses this week. According to statistics, as of December 11th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6090 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to last weekend. The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 8566 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.11%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -651 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -139 yuan/ton.
In the later stage prediction, the domestic acrylonitrile market is gradually bottoming out, and overall supply remains loose. There are no plans for equipment maintenance or load reduction in the short term, and prices continue to fall below the cost line. Under the pressure of losses, factories will still face production cuts in the later stage. We will continue to monitor the trend of factory equipment and follow up on buying orders.

Market Overview: Cost Support Failure, Continuous Decline (12.1-12.10)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 10th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 4400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58% from the beginning of the month. Recently, the dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market has shown a clear downward trend. Affected by changes in the supply and demand structure, major production enterprises have generally lowered their quotations, and the rise in raw material prices has not been effectively transmitted to the product side, resulting in a deviation phenomenon of “cost increase, product decline” in the market.
Supply side pressure increases
In the early stage, some parking or load reduction devices have been restarted one after another, and the overall operating rate of the industry has rebounded. The market spot supply tends to be loose. Supply recovery is one of the main driving factors for current price pressure, intensifying competition among sellers. Under the strong willingness of enterprises to ship and the strategy of actively lowering prices to reduce inventory, the focus of quotations continues to decline, and the profit margin of enterprises is significantly compressed.
Demand recovery falls short of expectations
The downstream major fields such as polycarbonate (PC) have not yet seen centralized procurement volume. Enterprises generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, only maintaining a small number of on-demand orders, waiting for the substantial recovery of demand in the terminal application field.
The cost transmission mechanism is obstructed
As of December 10th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 8166.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.94% from the beginning of the month. Although the prices of raw materials such as epichlorohydrin have increased, in the context of loose supply and demand, upstream costs are difficult to effectively transmit to downstream, reflecting the current market discourse power tilting towards buyers.
Outlook for the future: Supply and demand outweigh cost, and the market remains stable with small fluctuations
The dimethyl carbonate market is currently in a stage of adjustment dominated by “supply recovery and slow demand”. In the short term, the downward space for prices is limited, but there is a lack of sufficient upward momentum, and it is expected to present a pattern of “large stability, small movements, and narrow fluctuations”.
Great stability: The current price is close to the cost line of some enterprises, and the resistance to further decline is increasing. The market is gradually bottoming out;
Xiao Dong: The supply-demand game continues, and in order to promote shipments, there may still be slight price concessions in some areas.
Whether the market can stabilize and rebound depends on the following factors: whether the supply side actively reduces production to balance the current excess pressure; Can downstream demand experience seasonal improvement or terminal consumption recovery, driving the supply chain to replenish inventory.

Market Overview: (12.1-12.9)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 9th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 1685 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month and significantly decreased by 45.56% compared to the same period last year. Highlighting that the market is in a historical price depression, with severe overall pressure.
In the first week of December, the overall market consolidation was observed, with companies bidding for shipments over the weekend and downstream restocking moderately. Recently, there has been an intention to reduce the negative load or inventory of devices in the region, and the willingness of enterprises to stabilize prices has increased. Currently, the ex factory price in Shandong has rebounded to 1640-1670 yuan/ton, showing a narrow upward adjustment trend.
Supply side: Although the load is high, local load reduction forms support
The industry’s operating rate is at a high level of about 85%, and the overall supply is sufficient. However, in recent times, some facilities in Shandong have planned to reduce or reduce inventory, coupled with varying inventory pressures on enterprises, which has slightly eased supply pressure and increased the willingness of enterprises to stabilize prices.
Demand side: Continued weakness, suppressing upward price potential
Despite the low prices, downstream and traders’ willingness to purchase goods is still weak, and they tend to purchase on demand, making it difficult to form a sustained upward momentum. The market trading is mainly driven by rigid demand, and there is no obvious improvement signal on the demand side.
Cost side: The trend of raw materials is differentiated, with significant support from liquid chlorine
Liquid chlorine: Downstream demand remains stable, and prices in Shandong remain high, becoming a key cost support.
Methanol: The market replenishment pace has slowed down, import expectations have increased, and price fluctuations have been weak, partially easing cost pressures. As of December 9th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42% during the period.
Market outlook: In the short term, the market is expected to remain stable with a narrow range of adjustments, and both upper and lower spaces are limited
Supporting factors: High cost of liquid chlorine, partial supply adjustment brought about by the reduction of enterprise burden, and clear intention of enterprises to stabilize prices.
Restrictive factors: The overall industry load is still high, and the weak trend of terminal demand has not changed, which will suppress the high rebound of prices.

This week (December 1-5), the price of polyester bottle flakes showed a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the price data from Shengyi Society, as of December 5, the average selling price of PET was 5785 yuan/ton. The overall situation is dominated by the cost side game, and the weak supply and demand side continues to constrain the space for price rebound. The following is a specific analysis:

The cost side is the core of price fluctuations. At the beginning of the week, with the support of geopolitical premiums and phased destocking of upstream PTA, raw material prices rose, driving the bottle tablet market upward. But in the second half of the week, due to the failure of the expected US oil adjustment logic and the seasonal accumulation of international crude oil, cost support significantly weakened, leading to a decline in bottle chip prices.
The loose pressure on the supply side is evident, with a weekly operating rate of 72.9% for bottle tablets this week, an increase of 2% compared to the previous week. In addition, there are plans to restart equipment in late December, adding pressure to new production capacity. The available days of factory inventory increased by 0.43 to 16.49 days compared to the previous week.
The demand is in the traditional off-season, with a year-on-year decline of 5.7% in soft drink production from January to October. Downstream purchasing intentions are sluggish, and caution is being exercised. Market trading is sluggish, making it difficult to form effective support for prices.
Business Society believes that the price of polyester bottle chips is expected to weakly consolidate in the range of 5700-5850 yuan/ton next week, with a high probability of cost fluctuations. The loose supply and demand pattern is unlikely to change, and there is no hope of short-term volume increase on the demand side. The market may continue to maintain a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 28th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5376.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton or 0.75% compared to the price of 5336.67 yuan/ton on November 21st. The production and operation of ethyl acetate are stable, downstream demand has increased, and the upstream market is relatively strong. The support from the raw material side is favorable, and the ethyl acetate market is relatively strong and has been raised.
This week, the utilization rate of domestic ethyl acetate production capacity has increased compared to last week, and the market inventory is sufficient. Downstream purchases are made according to demand, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is still acceptable. The price of acetic acid on the raw material side continues to rise, and the atmosphere in the market is bullish. Driven by costs, some ethyl acetate manufacturers have increased their quotes, but the weak market demand situation has not improved, and the overall increase in ethyl acetate is limited.
In the future, there will be little change in the production of ethyl acetate, and the supply will steadily increase. Although the upstream market trend has supported the mentality of ethyl acetate, the downstream demand is limited, and market trading needs to follow up. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain stable and wait and see in the short term. Specific attention will be paid to the raw material market and downstream follow-up situation in the future.