Ethylene glycol fluctuated horizontally this week. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of July 11th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4405 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19% from the average price of 4396.67 yuan/ton on July 1st.
In terms of imported ethylene glycol, on July 11, 2025, the spot contract price of ethylene glycol at the port first strengthened and then weakened with the market, with a trading range of 4360-4410 yuan/ton. The intraday basis weakened slightly, with a strong early morning and a weak afternoon. The intraday basis range for next week’s spot contract is+62 to+68. As of the closing, the contract basis quotation for next week will be+64 to+70, the contract basis quotation for July will be+65 to+70, and the contract basis quotation for August will be+65 to+68.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 3880-4100 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of July 10th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 513 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 517 US dollars/ton.
Port inventory remained relatively low in July
From January to mid February, there was a significant accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory in the port, and from March to April, the port inventory fluctuated horizontally. From May to June 2025, there will be a significant decrease in the inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China. Currently, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port is relatively low. As of July 10th, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the East China main port was 480600 tons, a decrease of 61400 tons from the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the East China main port on July 3rd, which was 542000 tons; Compared to the total inventory of 700900 tons on April 28th, a decrease of 220300 tons; Compared to the total inventory of 671900 tons on March 31st, it decreased by 191300 tons.
This week’s fundamental overview
This week, domestic ethylene glycol spot prices were weak at first and then strong, with low-level buying being the main trend in the early stage. On Thursday, driven by the overall strong sentiment of the commodity market, prices rose, and on Friday afternoon, there was a slight correction. The focus of external cargo negotiations has slightly shifted upwards.
Supply and demand side: Currently, ethylene glycol is in a tight balance state, and the domestic production rate is relatively stable. Recently, imported goods have arrived at ports relatively less, and port inventories are at a low level. However, the feedback effect of the downstream industrial chain still exists. Currently, the production rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to below 60%, and the loading load has dropped to about 60%. The average polyester production and sales during the week are around 50-60%, and inventory pressure is high.
Cost side: Recently, coal prices have stopped falling and rebounded, with a significant upward trend, providing some support for the cost of coal to ethylene glycol production.
Future expectations
The pricing of the ethylene glycol market has now returned to fundamental considerations. Due to the decrease in downstream operating rates, the demand for ethylene glycol is relatively weak. Although the current port inventory is low, there is an expected concentration of foreign ships arriving at the port in July. Starting from the latter half of the year, there will be a significant increase in the arrival of ethylene glycol from foreign ships, mostly concentrated in the Taicang area. It is expected that the short-term price center of ethylene glycol will be weak.

Last week, the price of epichlorohydrin has risen to a high level, and the tight supply situation has not been significantly alleviated. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream market, and the epichlorohydrin market has been running steadily this week. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 11th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 10300 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.1% compared to July 1st.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The raw material propylene market is operating steadily, while the glycerol market continues to rise due to external market prices and tight supply. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 10th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6575.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.16% compared to the beginning of this month (6720.75 yuan/ton).
Supply side: This week, the spot market for epoxy chloropropane is slightly tight, and some companies have insufficient production. It is understood that parking will be conducted within the week in Jiangxi, and the restart time will be notified separately; Some devices are still parked for a long time. At present, the domestic industry’s capacity utilization rate is around 50%. It is difficult to find low-priced goods in the market, but the trading atmosphere is still acceptable. It is expected that the price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the short term.
On the demand side: Due to high cost pressure, some companies in the downstream epoxy resin market have seen price increases, but the enthusiasm for terminal inquiries is average, and the market performance is cautious and wait-and-see. Small orders for essential needs are the main focus, and the fluctuation of the trading center is limited.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the high cost side glycerol price supports the tight spot supply in the market, and low-priced sources are difficult to find. The trading atmosphere is still acceptable. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash fell on July 9th, with a market average price of 1174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month price of 1258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.68%.
2、 Market analysis
The soda ash market continued to decline in early July. On the demand side, downstream consumption is slow during the off-season, with low enthusiasm for entering the market and insufficient support for soda ash; On the supply side, although some soda ash plants have been adjusted, the fundamental supply is still sufficient. Soda ash manufacturers have high inventory and strong shipping intentions, but the market supply is strong and demand is weak. The mentality of operators is bearish, and the focus of soda ash transactions continues to shift downwards.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the glass market saw a narrow upward trend in early July, with an average market price of 14.03 yuan/square meter on the 9th, an increase of 1.30% from the beginning of the month. Some production lines in the glass market have undergone cold repairs, resulting in a decline in output. Downstream demand has followed suit, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. The market has slightly reduced inventory, and glass prices have been adjusted upwards.
Future forecast: Currently, the domestic soda ash spot market is sluggish, and enterprise inventory pressure is high. Although the downstream glass market has slightly increased, the intention to replenish is not high, and the demand for soda ash is limited. The supply and demand game in the market is expected, and the soda ash market is expected to operate weakly and steadily, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and fell from June 30 to July 7, 2025. On June 30th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6070 yuan/ton, and on July 7th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.75%. The toluene market has fluctuated downward this cycle, and the focus of negotiations has fallen. The mainstream refineries in Shandong continued to lower their ex factory prices in the later part of the week. As the price difference with xylene narrowed, some oil blending companies were attracted to enter the market for procurement. The overall shipment situation in Shandong was good, but the market price declined significantly. Trading in the East and South China regions has been relatively quiet this week, with downstream market entry not being active. On exchange quotes have generally decreased, lacking demand support, and spot market prices continue to decline.
Cost wise: The international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen this cycle. As of July 4th, the US WTI crude oil futures were closed for the Independence Day holiday, and the September Brent crude oil futures contract settlement price was $68.30 per barrel.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of July 7th, East China Company quoted 5600 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5600 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5650-5700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On July 7th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with a current price of 7250 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably and sales are normal. Reduced by 50 yuan/ton compared to June 30th. As of July 4th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $815-817/ton FOB Korea and $840-842/ton CFR China, a decrease of $26/ton from June 27th.
Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil is volatile, with significant fluctuations and insufficient guidance for the market. The overall supply side is relatively stable, and some parts of East China are slightly tight due to the impact of shipping schedules, which provides some support for the market. However, the overall performance of the demand side is weak, making it difficult for the toluene market to pick up and maintain a weak trend.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12533 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12633/ton, with a price increase of 0.80%.
Most domestic activated carbon manufacturers have stable quotes this week, with some rising. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9000-13000 yuan/ton, and the rise in raw material prices supports the price of coconut shell activated carbon. With the tightening of global environmental policies, the demand for coconut shell activated carbon in water treatment, air purification, food and medicine fields continues to grow.
Internationally, Southeast Asia, as the main source of coconut shells in the world, will encounter multiple natural disasters in 2024. Thailand will experience a reduction in coconut production due to drought and pest infestations. In the short term, the import price of coconut shell charcoal will continue to operate at a high level. In June 2025, the import price of coconut shell carbonized material specifications, including taxes, has exceeded the 8000 yuan/ton mark.
Prediction: The demand for activated carbon market is growing, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.