This week, the sulfur market showed a divergence trend of “spot fundamentals rising, but macro/market data indicators weakening”.
1、 Market and data indicators: high-level pullback, moving average system releases adjustment signal
Price decline: As of November 9th, the benchmark price of sulfur was reported at 5151.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.6% from the beginning of the month (5344.25 yuan/ton on November 1st). Especially on November 9th, the daily increase and decrease reached -2.32%, setting a record for the largest single day decline of the week.
Location assessment: Although the absolute price has fallen slightly, the table shows that the current price is at a “low level” at the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 60 day, and 90 day levels, and at a “medium low level” at the one-year level. This indicates that the current decline is a high-level correction after the previous rise, rather than a collapse of the long-term trend.
Technical signal: From the line chart, it can be seen that the price moving average began to turn downwards after reaching a temporary high on November 5th, and significantly crossed the 5-day moving average and 10 day moving average on November 9th. Meanwhile, from an overall trend perspective, the short-term moving average is approaching the long-term moving average. Based on the principle of moving average, the probability of the short-term moving average crossing the medium-term moving average is increasing, which is usually seen as a signal that the market has entered a downturn or adjustment.
2、 Spot fundamentals: low inventory and rigid demand support, limited decline
Although there has been a significant decline in market data, combined with the spot market situation from previous research, the fundamentals have not completely deteriorated
Domestic port prices rise: As of November 9th, the spot reference price of granular sulfur in mainstream ports such as Zhenjiang Port remains at around 4850 yuan/ton, with even a slight increase during the week. The port inventory is about 1.1251 million tons, which is at an extremely low level compared to the same period last year (a decrease of nearly 50%), giving cargo holders some confidence in “low inventory”.
International cost suppression: Qatar’s November contract price was significantly lowered to FOB $735/ton (a month on month decrease of $100), directly suppressing domestic bullish confidence. Although the spot prices in North Africa/Indonesia are still at CFR 850-860 USD/ton, a downward trend has emerged, leading to increased wait-and-see sentiment among domestic industry players.
3、 Comprehensive analysis and future prospects
The core logic of this week’s market trend is: a significant decrease in international long-term contract prices and a technical correction in the market, which suppressed the upward trend in domestic prices caused by low inventory and rigid demand.

This week, the domestic PX market price trend has declined, with an average price of 10500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 10500 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 6.67% and a year-on-year increase of 46.27%.
Cost side: Geopolitical premium fades, crude oil support collapses
This is the most direct driving force behind this round of decline. Previously, the market injected a high risk premium into crude oil due to geopolitical risks such as the US Iran conflict. Recently, with signals of easing in geopolitical relations, this premium has been rapidly squeezed out, leading to a significant pullback in international oil prices. Data shows that crude oil futures have experienced a wide decline for three consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of nearly 20%. As a downstream product of crude oil, the cost center of PX has shifted upwards, and the previously cost driven upward trend has entered an adjustment phase. The market generally believes that cost is the core logic that currently dominates the PX market trend, and the weakening of crude oil directly drives the overall decline of the PX, PTA, and polyester industry chains.
Supply side: Although PX supply has contracted, it has not been able to reverse the trend
Although the domestic PX plant load has recently fallen from over 80% to 79.4%, the marginal reduction on the supply side has not offset the dual negative effects of cost and demand. The continuous decline in spot prices against the backdrop of supply contraction indicates that cost pressures are absolutely dominant.
Demand side: Terminal weakness leads to negative feedback
As the final link in the polyester industry chain, the terminal weaving operating rate continues to be low. As of early November, the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was only around 52%, with a comprehensive operating rate of about 61% for reloading. Polyester production and sales continue to be sluggish, with an average estimated level of only 20-30%. Insufficient terminal orders have led to a decrease in the willingness of polyester factories to purchase raw material PTA, which in turn has dragged down the demand for PX. The institution clearly pointed out that “insufficient terminal demand and negative feedback to PX” are important reasons for the price reduction.
Market forecast: In the short term, the decline in PX is the result of the combination of “cost collapse” and “negative demand feedback”. The disappearance of geopolitical risk premium has loosened the core cost support of crude oil, while the sustained downturn in terminal textile demand has blocked the upward space for prices. It is expected that the PX market will mainly fluctuate.

Market Review
From October 28th to November 2nd, the spot price of PA66 remained stable at 19100 yuan/ton, and slightly increased to 19200 yuan/ton on November 3rd, with a weekly increase of 0.52%. From the perspective of cycle position, the positions of 10/20/30/60/90 days in the past week have all been at high levels, and the one-year position has risen from the previous mid low level to the median level. The bullish signal of the previous moving average has been realized, and the short-term price has entered a phase of strong oscillation.
Cost side
The upstream support of adiponitrile and adipic acid raw materials is relatively stable, and there has been no significant decrease in raw material costs, which has formed a bottom support for PA66; However, the lack of sustained upward momentum in upstream raw materials and limited driving force on the cost side make it difficult to sustain a significant price increase.
Supply and demand side
In terms of supply, the operating load of domestic PA66 major factories remains relatively stable, with sufficient spot circulation and supply, and no obvious centralized production restrictions or tightening of supply. On the demand side, downstream industries such as modification, auto parts, and textile slicing have a slow pace of following up on demand, mainly relying on buying at low prices and purchasing on demand. There is a lack of large-scale centralized stocking orders, resulting in insufficient demand growth and limiting the room for price increases. The overall situation shows a stable supply and weak demand, with weak sustainability of the upward trend.
Short term forecast for the future market
In the short term, cost support is still present, but downstream demand is unlikely to have a significant outbreak. PA66 is likely to maintain a high volatility trend, and there is insufficient motivation to continue to rise sharply. There is some pressure above, and the market volatility space has narrowed.

Entering October, the domestic MIBK market continued its high volatility pattern after a surge in September, with the overall market initially stabilizing before a slight correction and rebounding again at the end of the year, with prices operating within the high range of the year. According to the price trend monitored by Shengyi Society, the market continued the sharp rise in September at the beginning of this month, with spot prices maintaining a high level around 13500 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, the downstream demand buying rhythm slowed down, and the market transaction follow-up was weak, resulting in a slight decline in prices. After reaching the stage low point in the later part of the month, the market rebounded with the support of tight supply, showing a wide range of fluctuations throughout the month, and forming a clear differentiation from the unilateral upward trend in August and September.
The supply side is the core factor supporting this month’s MIBK price base. The early market surge was mainly due to the maintenance of domestic main equipment, the decline in operating load, and the tightening of spot circulation. This tight supply pattern continued in early October. But as some maintenance facilities gradually resume production, the increase in market supply becomes apparent, and traders have more spot goods in their hands. Coupled with the high prices in the early stage, the willingness of factories to ship has increased, which has suppressed the market in the mid month stage. Overall, the industry’s operating rate in October has rebounded compared to September, but there has been no concentrated increase in volume. Spot inventory is generally at a moderate level and has not formed a significant inventory backlog, thus limiting the downward space for prices.
On the cost side, fluctuations in the raw material acetone market have provided cost support for MIBK, but the driving force has weakened. Acetone is the main raw material for MIBK, and the upward trend in acetone prices in September was an important driving force for MIBK’s sharp rise. However, in October, the acetone market was mixed with long and short positions, with mixed ups and downs. The lack of sustained upward momentum on the cost side made it difficult to drive MIBK to rise sharply again.
The weak performance on the demand side has become the main weakness restricting the upward trend of the market. MIBK is mainly used in the fields of coatings, rubber anti-aging agents, pharmaceutical extraction, etc. In October, the traditional downstream coating industry entered a seasonal off-season, with limited increase in terminal production. Downstream enterprises showed obvious resistance to high priced raw materials, insisting on immediate use and replenishment in small quantities, with few large-scale hoarding operations. The market trading atmosphere was cautious, and basic demand support was still acceptable, but lacked speculative buying orders, making it difficult to drive prices to continue rising.
In the future, the domestic MIBK market is likely to maintain a high level of volatility in the short term. The positive factors are that there is still uncertainty in the operation of some devices, and the probability of concentrated spot trading is not high. There is an expectation of stabilizing acetone on the cost side, which supports the bottom of the price; The downside is that downstream demand is difficult to improve significantly, high prices suppress procurement, and there is pressure from the continued release of new sources of goods in the later stage. It is expected that the mainstream price range of MIBK will fluctuate and consolidate in November, and the possibility of a significant increase or deep decrease is relatively small. The market trend will mainly follow the changes in raw material acetone and the order follow-up of downstream coatings and chemical additives industries. It is recommended that operators closely monitor the dynamics of equipment, raw material prices, and changes in terminal demand, and rationally control the pace of procurement and shipment.

As of October 30th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37% from the zinc price of 26477 yuan/ton on October 1st.
fundamentals
The domestic zinc market as a whole presents a deep “V” – shaped trend of “first suppression and then rise”, with a significant downward shift in the price center. Affected by lower than expected demand and macroeconomic sentiment in the middle of the month, the price rebounded to 25833 yuan/ton at the end of the month, driven by cost support and buying on dips. Overall, zinc prices have undergone a transition from a unilateral decline to a bottoming out rebound this month, and the market is engaged in a fierce game between the reality of “weak peak season” and cost support.
Supply side:
This month, the overall supply of domestic zinc concentrate remained loose. In the early stage, the import ore window was open, and the raw material inventory of the smelter was abundant, resulting in relatively high processing fees (TC) for domestic and imported zinc concentrates. The strength of processing fees allows smelters to still have a certain profit margin when zinc prices fall, and refined zinc production remains high. Supply side pressure continues to transmit to the ingot side.
However, it should be noted that as the zinc price falls below the 25500 yuan/ton mark, the profits of some high cost smelters and mines are significantly compressed, approaching the breakeven line. The contradiction of “loose mining conditions but absolute prices touching the cost line” triggered a strong cost support effect at the end of the month, with short funds taking profits and driving prices to rebound strongly.
Demand side:
The operating rate of downstream galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises is lower than that of the same period in previous years. Affected by the low funding rate of real estate and infrastructure projects, orders for galvanized structural components are weak; Meanwhile, sluggish overseas consumption has led to a decline in export orders for die-casting alloys. The weak demand side directly leads to the sluggish destocking of social inventory, and holders choose to lower prices to destocking in the second half of the month, which is also the core reason for the accelerated decline in zinc prices in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, as prices fell to relatively low levels, some downstream companies had to replenish their inventory on dips, driving a temporary recovery in transactions and supporting price stabilization.
comprehensive analysis
Looking ahead to November, at the macro level, attention should be paid to the pace of overseas interest rate cuts and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Fundamentally speaking, as the northern region gradually enters the heating season, there are expectations of environmental restrictions on production in mines and smelters, and the pressure on the supply side is expected to be marginally alleviated. The demand side may return to a flat state after replenishing inventory at the end of the month, but the support near the cost line will become increasingly significant. It is expected that zinc prices will enter a period of wide fluctuations and bottoming out in November, with the main operating range possibly revolving around 25500-26500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the marginal improvement of downstream real orders and the turning point of social inventory.