In January 2026, the domestic phenol market broke away from its weak performance at the beginning of the month and showed a broad upward trend of “bottoming out, rebounding, and continuing to rise”, becoming a highlight of the chemical market at the beginning of the year. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the mainstream quotation in East China has risen from 5750 yuan/ton on January 1st to 6250 yuan/ton on January 29th, with a cumulative increase of about 8.7% for the whole month. The significant changes in supply and demand, cost, and industrial chain linkage have driven the price to achieve a phased breakthrough.
This month, the phenol market has been mainly driven by “inventory digestion cost drive tight supply and demand balance”, gradually strengthening overall. At the beginning of the month, the inventory at Jiangyin Port exceeded 21000 tons, and imported goods were concentrated at the port. Holders of goods offered discounts, and the market slightly declined; In the middle of the month, the price increase of raw materials such as pure benzene and propylene has raised costs, led by price adjustments by leading companies such as Sinopec. Coupled with the reduction of equipment load, lower than expected imports, and downstream pre holiday inventory replenishment, the quotation has risen to 6000-6250 yuan/ton, and supply and demand have shifted towards a tight balance; Factories continue to increase prices, downstream bisphenol A linkage strengthens, trading is active, and prices accelerate upward.
Cost side support: The dual raw materials of pure benzene and propylene have risen strongly simultaneously, forming a rigid support. Pure benzene prices rose from 8800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to over 9500 yuan/ton at the end of the month, driven by international crude oil fluctuations, domestic styrene plant destocking exceeding expectations, and demand recovery; Due to the maintenance of multiple PDH units in Shandong region, there is a temporary shortage in the supply of propylene, and the quotation has increased synchronously. Phenol ketone enterprises have continuously raised their ex factory prices of phenol to alleviate production cost pressures, becoming the core driving force behind the upward trend in market prices.
Supply and demand pattern reversal: Supply contraction and demand recovery form a two-way support, driving supply and demand from loose to tight balance. On the supply side, mainstream phenolic ketone enterprises in China have arranged maintenance before the Spring Festival in advance, and some units have reduced their load operation, resulting in a decrease in effective production capacity release. In addition, the arrival of imported goods at the port is lower than expected, and the total market supply continues to shrink; On the demand side, downstream bisphenol A and phenolic resins are driven by the demand for pre holiday replenishment of epoxy resin, resulting in a steady increase in demand for essential goods. Coupled with the periodic hoarding behavior of traders, this further amplifies demand and lays the foundation for price increases.
The decline in port inventory and the increasing willingness to raise prices have consolidated the upward channel for prices. With continuous shipments, port inventory has fallen from 21000 tons at the beginning of the month to below 15000 tons, establishing a tight supply-demand balance pattern. The willingness of suppliers to lower prices has significantly weakened, and there is a strong sentiment of reluctance to sell at high prices. The price adjustment behavior of leading enterprises continues to boost market confidence, and the demand for pre holiday stocking in the terminal market is released in stages. The continuous support of essential transactions in the market, coupled with the amplification of traders’ hoarding sentiment, forms a virtuous cycle and helps prices steadily rise.
In the short term, the phenol market is expected to remain volatile at a high level from the end of January to before the Spring Festival. The tight supply and demand of pure benzene, high crude oil prices, and low inventory levels will provide favorable support, making it difficult for prices to fall significantly. However, there is potential pressure from the decline in terminal production, shrinking demand, and expectations of import to port and plant resumption after the holiday. There is a risk of a pullback after the holiday; It is recommended that traders prioritize realizing profits, controlling inventory, and downstream enterprises replenish small quantities as needed, without blindly hoarding goods. Pay attention to the opportunity for price correction after the holiday.

Price trend: The market is showing a unilateral downward trend (1.17-1.28)
In the second half of January, the domestic dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market continued to decline and accelerated its bottoming out due to abundant supply. According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 28th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.7% during the period.
Core contradiction: The intensification of the loose supply and demand pattern is the main cause of the decline. The release of new production capacity, coupled with weak demand for downstream electrolytes and inventory in traditional fields, has led to a continuous increase in market inventory pressure.
Core driving factors
1. Supply side (strong bearish): Capacity increase and high operating rate coexist
Continuous release of new production capacity: On January 13th, the 200000 tons/year dimethyl carbonate plant in Hubei began to release products to the market. This is the most crucial supply increment of the current period, completely changing market supply and demand expectations.
High load operation of existing facilities: Against the backdrop of high industry production capacity, major facilities continue to operate at high loads without large-scale maintenance plans, exacerbating the pressure on spot supply.
Proactive destocking by enterprises: Faced with the Spring Festival holiday and bearish expectations, manufacturers and holders have a strong willingness to accelerate destocking and offer discounts before the holiday, and the proactive price reduction behavior has amplified the price drop.
2. Demand side (weak support): The main downstream procurement has slowed down comprehensively
Electrolyte demand falls short of expectations: Electrolyte companies have collapsed due to lower than expected growth in terminal battery demand and a shift in stocking focus towards raw materials such as lithium carbonate, resulting in rigid small order purchases of dimethyl carbonate.
Traditional downstream replenishment and closure: Traditional downstream industries such as polycarbonate and coatings have basically completed replenishment before the Spring Festival. Although the supply and demand in the PC industry have improved in the medium and long term, the short-term production has been stable with a slight decrease due to the impact of holidays and macro environment, resulting in poor stocking enthusiasm for the raw material dimethyl carbonate.
The mentality of buying up and not buying down: After the downward trend of prices becomes clear, downstream investors generally hold onto the currency and wait for lower prices, resulting in a lighter actual trading volume in the market.
3. Cost side (limited support): raw material fluctuations and profit contraction
Epoxy propane: With a price drop of 5.02%, it is one of the main raw materials for DMC. Its weakening directly weakens the cost support of DMC, coupled with the narrowing profit of EO/PO ester exchange method, and the increased willingness of enterprises to reduce prices and reduce inventory.
Methanol: The price has increased by 3.08%, but the proportion of methanol in DMC raw materials is relatively low, and the decline in epoxy propane is greater, so the overall cost side still shows a weak pattern.
Dimethyl ether: The price remains stable and has no significant impact on the cost of DMC.
4、 Short term outlook
Overall, it is expected that the dimethyl carbonate market will maintain a pattern of “weak stability, stalemate, and low volatility” before the Spring Festival.
Before the holiday (until early February): With downstream factories and logistics gradually shutting down, the market will enter a state of “price but no market”, and transactions will be extremely light. Under the dual pressure of sufficient supply and demand vacuum, prices are unlikely to rebound and are expected to consolidate at a low level at the current position.

Key turning point after the holiday (late February): The turning point of the market depends on the pace of downstream resumption of work after the holiday. If downstream demand can recover as scheduled in late February, and at the same time, whether the supply side can undergo spring centralized maintenance to hedge against new production capacity, it will be the key to whether prices can stop falling and stabilize. It is necessary to closely monitor the start-up plan of the main production facilities.

The overall price of baking soda is expected to remain weak in 2025, with an average market price of around 1546 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 1190 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a price drop of 23.03%. In 2025, baking soda only rose for one month, with a magnitude of 1.11%, and the largest decline was in April, with a magnitude of 13.86%.
Take a look at the annual price comparison chart of baking soda, which shows that the overall price of baking soda will be weak in 2025.
As the upstream of baking soda, the price fluctuation of light alkali affects the price of baking soda. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market is expected to decline weakly in 2025, with prices showing a fluctuating downward trend. At the beginning of the year, the average market price of soda ash was 1528 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 1250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.19% for the whole year.
Let’s take a look at the specific price trend. Baking soda prices will generally show three stages in 2025. Prices fell from January to mid April, slightly increased in mid to late April, and then declined by the end of the year.
The price has been declining from the beginning of the year to early April, mainly due to the weak operation of upstream soda ash prices, the overall trading atmosphere is average, and the downstream demand for soda ash is average, still mainly purchasing on demand, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The game between upstream and downstream supply and demand has led market participants to have a strong bearish attitude towards the future. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have a high demand for baking soda through on-demand procurement, resulting in weak prices for baking soda.
In mid to late April, the price of baking soda rose, and the recent trend has been relatively strong. On the one hand, baking soda manufacturers have been experiencing tight supply recently. On the other hand, the upstream raw material for baking soda, soda ash, has shown good demand in downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food.
Since early May, the price of baking soda has been running weakly, with upstream soda ash prices declining and downstream demand for baking soda being average. Baking soda prices have not been supported by favorable factors, leading to a continuous decline in prices.
How will the price of baking soda develop in 2026 as the price of baking soda fluctuates weakly in 2025?
On the supply side: In terms of changes in China’s baking soda production capacity, output, and operating rate, the production capacity and output of baking soda in China continue to expand against the backdrop of sustained growth in downstream demand in the food, industrial, and feed sectors.
On the demand side: In terms of the price trend of baking soda in China, the price of baking soda is greatly affected by the fluctuation of the upstream main raw material soda ash price, and the supply side will maintain a loose situation. The production capacity of soda ash will slow down in 2026, and the production capacity changes in the first half of the year mainly come from the release of the Yuanxing Energy Phase II and Yingcheng Xindu production projects at the end of 2025. In the second half of the year, the Jinshan Hubei Qianjiang and Hunan Xuetian Salt alkali projects are planned to be put into operation, with an additional production capacity of 2.5 million tons. The total production capacity of the soda ash industry in 2026 may reach 47.5 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of more than 10% in production. The pressure on the supply side will not decrease.

In terms of import and export: Domestic baking soda production capacity accounts for about 40% of global production capacity, and the export volume is significantly higher than the import volume. According to the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China, the import volume of baking soda in 2025 will be 74000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.7%, mainly targeting some high-end baking soda users; In 2025, the export of baking soda will reach 1.006 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%. Among them, the highest proportion will be sent to South Korea, accounting for 25.6%. The demand for desulfurization in local steel plants is concentrated, and the remaining amount will be sent to developed animal husbandry countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Australia, with a relatively high proportion.
Business analysts believe that the supply of baking soda continues to expand, and the growth rate of baking soda supply is expected to be faster than the demand growth rate in 2026. Although the Sunite plant has been shut down for a long time, the stable production of the Haihua new line and the planned release of 1.6 million tons of production capacity in Inner Mongolia in 2026 have led to a relatively fast growth rate in domestic baking soda supply. There will still be 2.5 million new production capacity for downstream soda ash in 2026, and there is still demand for baking soda. The economy is recovering, and the downstream opening of baking soda will have some recovery, which may increase the demand for baking soda. However, overall considering the environmental impact, the price of baking soda may not rise significantly, and it is expected that baking soda prices will be under pressure in 2026, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid has slightly rebounded recently. As of January 26th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in Shengyi Society’s domestic market was 2350 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% compared to the same period last week (January 19th), a month on month increase of 2.17%, and a year-on-year decrease of 20.34%.
Supply side: Production reduction and price protection continue+maintenance expectations rise, supporting price increases
The contraction signal from the supply side is the core driving force behind the market recovery this time. From the perspective of the industry as a whole, mainstream enterprises generally maintained a reduced workload operation in late January, which continued the spirit of the resolution reached by the three core enterprises in Liaocheng, Feicheng, and Jingzhou, Hubei at the beginning of the month to reduce production and maintain prices. Although the current industry inventory is still in the mid to high range, the controllable inventory level combined with continuous load reduction operation has effectively alleviated the pressure of loose supply in the early stage and laid the foundation for price stabilization.
More importantly, the maintenance plan for a 200000 ton/year main plant in Liaocheng, Shandong has become an important catalyst for market growth. Since its disclosure on the 21st, this information has continued to affect market expectations, leading traders and downstream enterprises to form a consistent judgment on the subsequent tightening of supply.
On the demand side, rigid procurement is the main focus, making it difficult to generate strong driving force
The overall performance on the demand side was lackluster, failing to generate substantial driving force for the market. In late January, downstream industries generally maintained a pace of on-demand procurement, while traditional demand areas such as feed, leather, printing and dyeing were still in the seasonal off-season, with a production rate of less than 60% and low enthusiasm for stocking up in large quantities. Among them, the pesticide industry’s spring plowing and stocking up have not yet been fully launched, and the leather and printing and dyeing industries have limited digestion capacity due to sluggish terminal consumption. Only the pharmaceutical and chemical industries maintain a small amount of essential procurement, making it difficult to change the overall balance of market supply and demand.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that, based on the current market supply and demand pattern, inventory levels, and industry expectations, the domestic formic acid market will continue to maintain a sideways consolidation trend in the short term. The implementation of the main equipment maintenance plan in Liaocheng, Shandong will become the core variable determining the subsequent market trend. If the maintenance is successfully implemented, the market supply will be substantially tightened. Coupled with the current industry’s background of reducing production and ensuring prices, the price of formic acid is expected to gain further upward space. On the contrary, if the maintenance plan is postponed or cancelled, the expectation of loose supply may rise again, and the price action force will significantly weaken.

This week, the overall load of the East China factory has decreased, and the supply side has started to reduce. At the same time, downstream users have started to stock up appropriately, and the inventory of enterprises has decreased. The acrylonitrile market has bottomed out and is consolidating. As of January 23rd, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 7250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is 7050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week.
Supply reduction:
The overall load reduction of the East China factory within the week. According to statistics, as of January 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 75.22%, which is -2.93% higher than the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 85700 tons, which is 0.34 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 57300 tons, which is 0.42 million tons compared to last week, indicating a decrease in the company’s inventory.
Increased demand:
This week, the overall production of major downstream industries has declined, among which Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its negative load, and the utilization rate of ABS production capacity has decreased to 66.8%, a decrease of -3% compared to last week; Capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises: 65.97%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 56.29%, which was -0.36% compared to last week. However, the low price attracted some buyers to follow up, and downstream users began to stock up appropriately, resulting in an overall increase in demand.
Cost increase:
During the week, upstream propylene prices continued to rise, leading to an increase in raw material costs for acrylonitrile production. However, acrylonitrile prices remained low and fluctuated, resulting in further worsening of production losses this week. According to statistics, as of January 22, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6175 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous weekend’s 6145 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 8430 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.06%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period is -1220 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -45 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, there are currently fluctuations in local equipment and active load reduction, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has dropped to around 70%. Excess pressure may be alleviated, and low prices may attract some buyers to follow suit. There is an expectation of an upward trend in the domestic acrylonitrile market, but considering the temporary weakening of demand before and after the Spring Festival, the market rebound space will still be suppressed.