1、 Market Overview
The National Day holiday has ended, and the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has fluctuated downward, with the market continuing to weaken. As of October 13th, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) was 3316.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.99% compared to the beginning of this month (3350.00 yuan/ton).
After the holiday, the mainstream price of 62% white potassium in ports decreased by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the price of white potassium in Laos decreased by 50-80 yuan/ton. Low price transactions have emerged in the market, and traders have a strong willingness to ship, causing the market transaction center to shift downward.
3、 Fundamental Logic
supply side
The supply side has abundant sources of goods, and the market is under significant pressure. The domestic potassium chloride plant is running smoothly, with continuous external shipments of goods and firm factory quotations, but the actual circulating price has already broken through. The import of potassium chloride is scheduled to arrive at the port normally, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The social circulation of goods is sufficient, and traders have a strong willingness to ship. Market competition is intensifying, and some goods are being shipped at a discount, further dragging down the spot transaction price.
Demand side
The weak downstream demand is the core factor behind the current market downturn. Under the autumn fertilizer preparation cycle, the operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises is relatively low compared to the same period last year, and the purchasing enthusiasm of enterprises is insufficient. They only maintain small orders for essential replenishment and have weak willingness to stock up in large quantities. The imbalance between supply and demand has intensified, new orders are deadlocked, terminal wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and there is a lack of centralized procurement to drive, making it difficult to support the price of potassium chloride.
4、 Market analysis and judgment
The short-term imported potassium chloride market is likely to maintain a weak downward trend and a low-level oscillation pattern. On the technical side, the moving average has crossed below, and the bearish signal is clear. The price position throughout the cycle is at a low level, but the supply and demand fundamentals have not improved yet. The pressure of high inventory in ports continues to exist, and there is limited room for downstream compound fertilizer production to increase. The demand pull is insufficient, and the phenomenon of traders offering discounts for shipments will continue.
Subsequent focus will be on changes in port inventory, compound fertilizer operating rate, import shipping schedule arrival rhythm, and international potassium fertilizer price trends. If downstream centralized replenishment has not yet been initiated, there is still room for further downward exploration of potassium chloride prices.

Current situation of domestic PET market in September
In September, the overall PET market for water bottles in East China surged and then fluctuated at a high level. In the first half of the year, the market continued to rise unilaterally, with prices steadily rising from around 8200 yuan/ton. Supported by upstream raw material costs and the favorable trend of low inventory in the industry, the market has a strong bullish atmosphere; The mid price surged to the high point of nearly 9000 yuan/ton in this round of market trend; In the second half of the month, the market quickly rebounded to around 8700 yuan/ton without experiencing a deep decline. Subsequently, the market fluctuated and stabilized with a slight rebound, and prices rose again at the end of the month, showing an overall trend of rising sharply, falling sharply, and strong high-level fluctuations.
Analysis of the driving force of the monthly market trend
In the first and middle of September, PET prices surged, with the core being supported by cost factors such as crude oil PX、PTA、 The ethylene glycol market continues to strengthen, with low inventory and tight spot prices at ethylene glycol ports. The upward trend of polyester raw materials has driven up PET costs, and the repair of bottle processing fees has led to a strong willingness of production enterprises to push prices; In terms of supply, multiple bottle tablet devices underwent maintenance and load reduction in August. In early September, the circulation of spot goods was limited, and the industry’s social inventory was low. The tight supply of goods supported the quotation; The expected peak season for the “Golden Nine” beverage industry, coupled with market competition, saw downstream bottle preforms and beverage companies stocking up before the holiday, while traders followed suit to boost the market.
In the middle of the month, the price surged to the stage high and then quickly fell back, mainly due to the large short-term increase, the cost pressure on downstream beverage companies, and the drying up of high-level procurement willingness, only maintaining on-demand small order procurement; At the same time, traders stocked up at low prices in the early stage and concentrated on cashing in profit orders around 9000 yuan/ton, showing selling pressure. In addition, the actual demand for terminal beverages was limited, and expectations during peak seasons were falsified, leading to a cooling of market sentiment.
After the market correction, there was no deep decline, and upstream PTA and ethylene glycol still had cost support. Raw materials did not experience a cliff like decline, and PET factories had little inventory pressure. They had a strong willingness to raise prices and were unwilling to offer significant discounts. After the correction, demand for replenishment at low prices emerged, and prices stabilized in the range of 8600-8800 yuan/ton, with a slight increase at the end of the month.
Future forecast
The current fundamentals of water bottle grade PET in East China show a pattern of strong cost support, supply contraction to support the bottom, and weak terminal demand. On the cost side, crude oil PX、PTA、 The ethylene glycol market is relatively strong, with low inventory at ethylene glycol ports. The upward trend of polyester raw materials has driven up PET production costs, and the processing fees for bottle chips have been repaired, providing strong support for prices. On the supply side, since August, the industry has concentrated on carrying out equipment maintenance and load reduction, causing a decline in industry operating rates, tightening spot circulation, maintaining low factory inventory, tight supply, and strong willingness of production enterprises to raise prices. In the short term, the supply side has formed a bottom line for the market. There is a clear differentiation on the demand side, driven by the expectation of the “Golden September” in the early stage, downstream bottle preforms and beverage companies concentrated on replenishing inventory before the holiday, driving up prices; But after the price surge, downstream cost pressure became prominent, and there was insufficient willingness to chase after high prices. Only on-demand small orders were maintained, and the actual consumption increment of terminal beverages was limited. The expectation of peak season gradually proved false. There is no significant increase in the export end, and the external demand pull is weak. Overall, the upward trend of PET prices is mainly driven by costs and low inventory, with downstream terminal demand becoming the main constraint of the market. Under the long short game, the market fluctuates at high levels

Based on comprehensive fundamental analysis, the East China water bottle grade PET market is expected to fluctuate at a high level and have a slightly weak center of gravity in October, with a price range of 8400-8900 yuan/ton as a reference. At the beginning of the month, the high trend at the end of September continued. With the traditional peak season for beverages coming to an end and downstream entering a seasonal off-season, coupled with the gradual restart of maintenance equipment in the early stage, the pressure on the supply side slowly rose, and the market may fluctuate and fall back; But crude oil PTA、 Ethylene glycol still has cost support, factory inventory is low, and there is a strong willingness to raise prices, with limited room for deep decline. If raw materials strengthen again in the second half of the year, there is a chance for prices to rebound.
On the cost side, crude oil PX、PTA、 Ethylene glycol remains the dominant variable in the market, with raw materials fluctuating at high levels due to geopolitical factors, providing support for the bottom of PET. However, beverage consumption has weakened, and there is limited room for further expansion of bottle processing fees. On the supply side, the low inventory pattern continued in September, and some early maintenance bottle devices are planned to restart in October. There is an expectation of a rebound in operating load, and the supply side support is gradually increasing compared to September. On the demand side, as the weather turns cooler, soft drink consumption has entered the traditional off-season. Downstream bottle preform and beverage companies have already completed pre holiday stocking in the early stage, but will mainly consume their own inventory in the future. There is a lack of willingness to replenish inventory on a large scale, and only maintain small orders for essential needs. Demand has become the main suppressing factor in the market.
Overall, the PET market in October was a game between cost support and off-season demand, with insufficient basis for a sharp rise and limited room for a significant decline, mainly characterized by range fluctuations. Key attention should be paid to fluctuations in crude oil prices, polyester raw material prices, progress in restarting bottle and chip equipment, and changes in downstream beverage industry procurement; The risk lies in the significant fluctuations in crude oil caused by geopolitical conflicts and the increase in supply brought about by the concentrated resumption of production facilities.

1、 Price trend
As of September 30th, the reference average price of small and medium-sized urea in the Shandong region is 1780 yuan/ton, which is 3.94% higher than the reference average price of 1712 yuan/ton on September 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This month, the domestic urea market prices have fluctuated and risen. In the first half of this month, the urea market price continued to rise and then slightly rebounded. The export market for urea is improving, with rising prices of raw coal and reduced market supply. Supported by favorable factors, urea prices have significantly increased. In the second half of this month, the urea market price slightly increased after a weak decline. The urea plant is gradually resuming production, the market supply is sufficient, the urea inventory is high, and downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have insufficient purchasing enthusiasm.
market situation
As of September 30th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1720-1780 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1780-1790 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1710-1750 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1760-1800 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that there has been a slight adjustment in the urea market recently. At present, the market supply is sufficient, and the demand for autumn fertilizers has not been fully released. The market transaction atmosphere is average. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea market will mainly experience a narrow range of price consolidation and operation.

At the beginning of the month, the price of 50% potassium sulfate was 3990 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of 50% potassium sulfate was 3926 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59% in price.
This month, the market price of potassium sulfate has been weak, with the ex factory price of 52% water-soluble powder at around 3900 yuan/ton (some areas have dropped to 3800-3900 yuan/ton). The arrival price of resource-based potassium sulfate 50% powder is around 3700-3800 yuan/ton. Due to logistics costs and regional market differences, actual transaction prices may fluctuate in some northern and northeastern regions, and low-end transaction prices in some areas may further decline.
Weak demand: The pace of fertilizer promotion in autumn is slow, and the enthusiasm of end farmers for stocking up is low. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is low, and the demand for potassium fertilizer procurement has been significantly reduced, making it difficult to form a bottom support for prices. Adequate supply: Domestic potassium fertilizer arrivals continue to increase, and port and factory inventories are at a high level for the year (with port potassium fertilizer inventories exceeding 4 million tons). The market circulation of goods is abundant, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand has suppressed the price rebound space.
Prediction: With sufficient supply of potassium sulfate and weak demand, it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

In mid September, the domestic dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market rose to a new high in nearly four years, with a peak increase of 52.03% compared to the beginning of the year. Subsequently, there was a high-level consolidation, and the market quickly weakened at the end of the month. The pessimistic sentiment in the market spread, and the price center shifted significantly downwards. As of September 28th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 6233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.43% from mid month and an increase of 25.08% from the beginning of the month.
Driving factors for decline:
On the supply side, the industry’s production has increased by 1.94 percentage points compared to the first ten days, and the spot market has shifted from tight to loose.
On the demand side, as export orders enter the final stage of delivery, the diversion effect on domestic spot goods weakens; Downstream domestic trade is strongly resistant to the high prices that quickly rose in the early stage. The PC and ethyl ester industries have experienced varying degrees of decline due to high costs, and there is a lack of willingness to stock up before the holiday. Therefore, many parties are holding small orders for essential purchases.
Cost side: Due to the decrease in international crude oil and propylene prices, as well as the resumption of operation of some facilities, the supply of raw material propylene oxide has become loose, resulting in continued weak prices and insufficient support for DMC costs.
Market forecast: October may continue the weak bottoming out pattern
Taking into account current factors, the pressure on the supply side continues, cost support is weak, improvement on the demand side is limited, and the technical aspect is bearish. It is expected that the overall pressure on the dimethyl carbonate market will continue to decline in October, but the space for deep decline may be limited.