In February 2026, the domestic phenol market broke away from the previous low volatility pattern and showed a steady upward trend. The strengthening of cost support, structural adjustment of the supply side, and the resonance of downstream demand recovery have driven up prices, and market trading has improved compared to January. “Stable price increase” has laid the foundation for the industry’s full year recovery.
The price of phenol rose in a stepwise manner in February, with a significant increase. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price on February 1st was 6450 yuan/ton, which rose to 6650 yuan/ton on the 27th and increased by 3.1% for the whole month. The average price in the core market of East China is about 6500-6550 yuan/ton, while in the north, the increase is slightly higher due to factory led growth, and the regional price difference is reasonable.
From an annual perspective, the current phenol price is at the median level of the past year. As of February 27th, the minimum value of phenol price in the past year was 5670 yuan/ton, the maximum value was 7947.50 yuan/ton, and the median value was 6808.75 yuan/ton. The current price still has some room for improvement from the median value, and there is still potential for upward movement in the future.
（1） Strong cost support lays the foundation for price increases
The core raw materials of phenol, pure benzene and propylene, have been operating strongly this month, forming strong support. Pure benzene saw a slight correction, with supply and demand balanced, while the propylene market improved, highlighting cost transmission. Although the phenol ketone factory is still operating at a loss, the magnitude has not expanded, and the willingness to raise prices has increased; This month, the factory’s profit decreased by 90 yuan/ton compared to last month to -926 yuan/ton, and the enterprise’s price increase drove the market up.
（2） Supply side structural adjustment, marginal improvement of supply and demand pattern
In February, the supply of phenol was generally abundant but locally tightened, and the operating rate increased by 3 percentage points to 89% compared to January. The 320000 ton/year plant in Yangzhou Shiyou is operating at full capacity, while the 650000 ton/year plant in Zhenhai Refining has increased from 65% to 85%, increasing market supply; The shutdown of the 300000 ton/year plant in Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I and the 60% load of the 630000 ton/year plant in Ningbo Taihua have eased the supply pressure.
In terms of inventory, the inventory at Jiangyin Port increased to 38500 tons during the Spring Festival period, but the pressure of contract shipments from cargo holders was low. Northern factories led the rise, driving supplier sentiment and not suppressing prices. In 2026, the growth rate of new phenol production capacity will slow down, the import volume will decrease, and the domestic substitution effect will be significant. The import dependence is expected to drop below 3%, consolidating the dominant position in the domestic market.
（3） Downstream demand gradually recovers, supporting market recovery
The Spring Festival holiday resulted in downstream production rates of bisphenol A and phenolic resin dropping to 70.84% and 20% respectively, with weak demand support. After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, enterprises gradually resumed work, and terminal demand recovered and procurement released, providing substantial support for the market. Bisphenol A accounts for over 40% of phenol consumption, and the addition of new facilities in 2026 will drive demand growth. The current expectation is positive, which will boost procurement. Phenolic resin benefits from the recovery of real estate and the lightweighting of automobiles, and the operating rate is expected to increase; The demand for high-end phenol is driven by new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, injecting momentum into the market.
Overall, in February, firstly, prices steadily rose, relying on rational cost and demand to climb, without speculative fluctuations; Secondly, there is a clear supply-demand game, with high port inventory and rising prices from suppliers, as well as a confrontation between downstream resumption of work and improved demand, resulting in moderate and increased transactions; Thirdly, there is regional synergy, with the northern region leading the gains and the eastern and southern regions following suit, resulting in a reasonable price difference.

In the short term, the market is expected to continue its upward trend in March. On the supply side, Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I plans to restart and Phase II will undergo maintenance, while Shandong Ruilin’s new facility will start production in mid March, releasing favorable news for the procurement of start-up materials; The downstream of the demand side has resumed work comprehensively, and the addition of bisphenol A facilities has driven demand growth; On the cost side, pure benzene and propylene are relatively strong, supporting a moderate upward trend in prices.
In the long run, 2026 is a crucial year for industry recovery, showing a trend of “slowing down supply growth and steadily recovering demand”. The annual production capacity is expected to be 6.5 million tons per year, with a capacity utilization rate of 83% and a consumption of approximately 5.8 million tons. Supply and demand are tending towards balance, and the price center is shifting upwards, resulting in improved profitability. Attention should be paid to risks such as fluctuations in raw materials and unexpected demand recovery.
In summary, the clear upward trend of the phenol market in February 2026 is an important signal for the industry’s recovery. The subsequent optimization of supply and demand will gradually push the market out of its low position and steadily recover.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region fluctuated at a low level, with an average market price of 16750 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a flat rise and fall.
This month’s market analysis
In February 2026, the magnesium market showed a typical “V-shaped” recovery trend before and after the Spring Festival. At the beginning of the month, due to the dual impact of pre holiday capital withdrawal pressure and continuous inventory accumulation, magnesium prices were under pressure and experienced a downward trend and correction; After the holiday, with downstream enterprises resuming work and production one after another, coupled with the increasing reluctance of the supply side to sell, the market trend suddenly changed, and magnesium prices steadily rose. Overall, the game between supply and demand in the magnesium market became increasingly fierce in February, and the role of cost support significantly increased. The recovery pace of the domestic and foreign trade markets showed significant differences.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, there is a clear structural tightening trend, which has become a key driving force for price increases. The production process remains stable, but manufacturers have a strong reluctance to sell. Smelting enterprises in major magnesium producing areas such as Shaanxi and Shanxi have maintained normal production and operation, without large-scale maintenance or shutdown. However, manufacturers generally have a strong willingness to raise prices, and their willingness to ship at low prices is extremely weak. In late February, most magnesium factories in Shaanxi had raised their prices to over 16500 yuan/ton, with little room for negotiation. The pre-sale model has changed the short-term circulation pattern. Of particular importance is that about half of the magnesium factories in Shaanxi had full pre-sale orders before the holiday, and some manufacturers’ orders were even scheduled until early March. This indicates a significant decrease in the freely tradable spot quantity in February.
On the demand side, domestic demand for replenishment of inventory provides support for prices. In the first week after the end of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises resumed work at a relatively slow pace, and procurement activities mainly focused on replenishing essential inventory. Magnesium alloy enterprises arrange production according to orders and maintain a tight balance between supply and demand. The magnesium powder market is also mainly executing preliminary orders, and most domestic procurement plans are scheduled to be fully launched in March. This orderly resumption of work and cautious replenishment of inventory, although did not cause explosive growth on the demand side, effectively prevented significant price fluctuations.
In terms of raw materials
In February, the prices of magnesium smelting raw materials showed a trend of differentiation, but overall it provided solid support for magnesium prices. Among them, although the price of ferrosilicon has fluctuated slightly, it has always maintained a strong trend. The dolomite market is stable and improving, with prices rising slightly. However, the price of blue charcoal is still hovering at a low level.
Future forecast
Overall, the magnesium market completed a smooth transition from holiday mode to normal production in February 2026, achieving a moderate price increase in the supply-demand rebalancing. The arrival of the traditional consumption peak season in March is expected to drive magnesium prices to continue oscillating in the high range.

On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe, the world’s fourth largest lithium producer, suddenly announced an immediate and comprehensive suspension of lithium raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, without setting a clear lifting period, only on the premise that domestic mining enterprises complete localized processing and transformation to resume exports. The sudden implementation of this policy has disrupted the original rhythm of the global lithium supply chain, and as the second largest importer of lithium mines in China, the lithium carbonate market has been the first to be impacted. According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of lithium carbonate rose sharply the next day, with a benchmark price of 172000 yuan/ton for battery grade lithium carbonate from Shengyi Society, an increase of 6.17% from the previous day.
Zimbabwe, as the core production area of lithium resources in Africa, is the largest exporter of lithium mines in Africa. In 2025, the country’s lithium concentrate production is equivalent to 150000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, accounting for 12% of the global lithium supply. More than 90% of the export volume flows to China, making it the second largest source of lithium concentrate imports for China, second only to Australia. In 2025, China imported a total of 7.751 million tons of lithium concentrate, of which 1.204 million tons were imported from Zimbabwe, accounting for 15.5%.
Prohibiting the impact of export cycles on the price of lithium carbonate
Short term: emotion driven+supply contraction, price pulse like rise
The short-term impact of this ban mainly comes from the dual effects of unexpected emotions and immediate supply contraction, coupled with limited domestic inventory buffer, which will directly drive up the price of lithium carbonate. From the supply side perspective, the ban covers goods in transit that have already been shipped, causing a complete interruption of individual trading sources for traders. Domestic small and medium-sized lithium salt factories that rely on traders for procurement will face a shortage of raw materials and be forced to reduce production.
The catalytic effect on the emotional side is more significant. The market originally expected Zimbabwe to implement a ban as planned in 2027, and even if it accelerates, it will retain a buffer period. However, the “one size fits all” policy that came into effect immediately completely reversed the market’s expectation of loose lithium ore supply, triggering reluctance and hoarding behavior in the futures and spot markets.
Based on the current market trend, it is predicted that the spot price of battery grade lithium carbonate will rise in the short term, but there will not be an extreme surge in 2022. After all, the background of overcapacity in the domestic mid to low end market remains unchanged, and the core supply of top enterprises has not been affected.
Mid term: Gap gradually hedged, prices return to fundamentals
With the cooling of market sentiment and the gradual implementation of supply side hedging factors, the actual impact of Zimbabwe’s export ban will be significantly weakened, and the price of lithium carbonate will gradually return to the supply and demand fundamentals, showing a trend of “rising, falling, and fluctuating”.
Other supply sources quickly fill the gap. As the largest source of lithium concentrate imports for China, Australia is expected to increase its lithium concentrate production capacity by 200000 tons in 2026, which can fill the gap in supply for Zimbabwean traders; At the same time, in December 2025, China imported a total of 189000 tons of lithium concentrate from Nigeria and South Africa, accounting for 20% of the total import volume for that month, which can quickly replace Zimbabwe’s bulk supply. In addition, the production capacity of lithium extraction from salt lakes and lithium mica in China continues to climb, and there will still be more than 150000 tons of new production capacity released in 2026, which can further hedge against fluctuations in imported raw materials.

After the market sentiment subsides, the price of lithium carbonate will gradually fall back, showing an overall range oscillation pattern, and it is difficult to see a sustained unilateral upward trend.
Long term: Supply chain restructuring, accelerated increase in industry concentration
The export ban imposed by Zimbabwe is not a policy choice of a single country, but a microcosm of the entire African continent’s efforts to promote the localization and appreciation of mineral resources. For a long time, most African countries have been stuck in the low-end industrial chain of “mining exporting primary raw materials”, and the added value of strategic resources such as lithium and cobalt has been seriously lost. Zimbabwe’s acceleration of policies this time is essentially a competition for the voice of the lithium industry chain, transforming from a “raw material supplier” to a “processing producer”. This trend will reconstruct the global lithium supply chain pattern in the long run.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that this incident will strengthen the relatively strong pattern of the lithium carbonate market in the short term, and the upward space of the market driven by emotions will be opened up. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has increased after the Spring Festival. On February 25th, the average market price of caustic soda was 634 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.93% compared to the previous trading day. On February 24th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 785 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 43.93% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 31.27% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, caustic soda is on the rise. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 600-670 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Zhejiang region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 850-970 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 2050-2150 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. Returning after the Spring Festival, some traders and downstream urgently need to replenish their stocks. The rise in liquid chlorine prices has driven the recovery of chlor alkali profits, and some caustic soda enterprises have lower inventories, resulting in an increase in caustic soda prices. However, with the completion of downstream enterprise replenishment, the overall upward space for caustic soda is limited.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been on the rise, and after the holiday, the price of Shandong liquid caustic soda has been affected by the short-term replenishment of essential needs. However, with the completion of inventory replenishment, it is expected that caustic soda will continue to maintain a stable operation in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 11th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 3940 yuan/ton. Currently, there is insufficient demand in the DMF market, and downstream market shipments are slow approaching the Spring Festival. Factories are about to take a holiday, and the DMF market is mainly operating steadily.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, the DMF market is mainly operating steadily, with overall overcapacity in the market. The focus of negotiations is stable, but there is insufficient motivation for price increases.
Regarding methanol: In the upstream methanol market, traditional downstream demand is insufficient, inventory is running at high levels, and prices are mainly under pressure.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will mainly remain stable, with insufficient downstream demand and narrow price fluctuations.