This week, PET prices have increased. According to the price data from Shengyi Society, as of June 20th, the average selling price of PET (polyester bottle flakes) was 6272 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.7% from the beginning of the week.
In terms of cost, on June 19th, the Iran Israel conflict may spread to other regions in the Middle East, causing supply concerns due to intensified geopolitical tensions. Brent crude oil rose to $78.85 per barrel (+2.80%), PTA rose to $4990 per ton, and strong support from PET raw materials pushed the PET market up accordingly.
In terms of supply, some major factories have plans to reduce production. Leading companies have jointly announced a 20% reduction in production starting from July. Coupled with the fact that Sanfangxiang has already stopped production of 1 million tons and Baihong has been operating for 70% of the long-term, the total production capacity involved is 2.59 million tons (including 4.9 million tons of long-term shutdown equipment). Changes in the supply side have led to tight spot flow in some areas, driving up the price of polyester bottle chips. However, overall, the production of bottle flakes is still operating at a high level and production capacity is increasing. In the long run, supply pressure still exists, but the slight reduction in supply in the short term has had a certain boosting effect on prices.
In terms of demand, although the recovery of downstream demand is weak, and the replenishment of inventory is mostly for small orders of rigid demand, lacking the driving force to chase up prices, the second quarter is the peak season for downstream beverage factories to stock up, and there is a certain degree of rigid demand, which provides certain support for the price of polyester bottle chips and limits the downward space of prices.
Overall, Shengyi Society believes that the core driving force behind the price increase is mainly supply contraction and cost push. In the short term, the price of polyester bottle chips is expected to fluctuate with the cost side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on June 17th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic Shandong region was 7375 yuan/ton. Compared with June 13th (reference price of cyclohexanone was 6300 yuan/ton), the price increased by 75 yuan/ton. Compared with May 17th (reference price of cyclohexanone was 7575 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.64%.
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since mid May, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong has been running weakly for more than a month. Until mid June, the cyclohexanone market finally experienced a recovery, with cyclohexanone factories and suppliers in Shandong region narrowly raising cyclohexanone prices. The overall negotiation focus of the market shifted slightly upward, with a price adjustment range of about 100 yuan/ton. As of June 17th, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong region was around 7300-7400 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of cost: Currently, the pure benzene market on the cost raw material side is fluctuating and rising, and the support for cyclohexanone from the cost side is gradually increasing. The rise in cyclohexanone market is also mostly supported by the raw material side, which can be described as “rising with the original”.
Supply side: Currently, the overall supply performance of the cyclohexanone market remains relatively stable, with little overall change in the supply side, providing moderate support for the cyclohexanone market.
In terms of demand: Currently, downstream demand for cyclohexanone is mainly based on on-demand procurement, and downstream chemical fiber and solvent markets are cautious in following up on high prices, resulting in weak supply and demand transmission.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is still good. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly focus on consolidation and operation, and specific changes in supply and demand need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, this week (6.9-13), the PVC spot market reversed its decline and prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4950 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.17% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: The PVC spot market atmosphere improved this week, reversing the previous decline. Driven by the crude oil and futures markets, the spot market slightly climbed this week. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC operating rate has remained stable this week. In the early stage, companies that had reduced their operating costs have taken actions to increase their costs, resulting in a slight increase in operating rates. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, there has been a temporary increase in transaction volume in the market recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.
On the cost side: The market price of calcium carbide remained stable this week, and the market entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly increase or decrease of calcium carbide was zero. The increase in downstream procurement volume has a certain stimulating effect, and the linkage between upstream and downstream has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4650-4750 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that PVC supply is still sufficient in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers this week is generally higher than last week. Although the inventory of enterprises continues to decrease, the process is slow. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly driven by the improvement of market sentiment and the rise in crude oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, and the lack of sustained improvement in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the focus of the domestic PTA spot market slightly shifted this week (June 9-13). As of June 13, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4932 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.99% from the beginning of the month. Geopolitics is heating up, and the sharp rise in crude oil prices is helping to strengthen costs. However, there are expectations of weakening on the supply and demand sides, and there is insufficient support on the demand side, resulting in a lack of market momentum to chase after price increases.
Looking ahead, the progress of the China US economic and trade talks in the crude oil market is smooth, boosting global demand expectations. Combined with the continuation of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States and the instability of the geopolitical situation, it provides certain support for oil prices. But the global economic recovery is still slow, which may curb the rise in oil prices. As of June 12th, the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $68.04 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.06 per barrel.
In terms of self supply, mainstream domestic producers have restarted their facilities, and Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.5 million ton annual production facility has been put into operation, resulting in a significant increase in supply and an industry operating rate of around 83%. The peak of PTA plant maintenance has passed, and new production capacity is being tested and put into operation. It is expected that PTA supply will continue to increase within the month.
Meanwhile, the performance of downstream polyester end is not ideal, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The performance of domestic and foreign trade orders at the terminal is scarce, with a small number of orders being mainly sampled in autumn and winter, but there is still uncertainty for subsequent orders. Next week, there is an expectation of an increase in device storage load, and some maintenance devices are planned to restart. The weaving operation rate is still at a low level, and there may be a downward risk in the weaving industry at the end of the month.
Business analysts believe that the macro outlook is relatively warm, with crude oil rebounding significantly in the short term. However, the supply of raw material PX has returned, PTA new facilities have been put into operation, and there are plans to restart early-stage maintenance facilities. The seasonal off-season for terminals is approaching, with weak demand performance and expectations of weakened supply and demand. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market was consolidating and operating in early June, with some brand products experiencing narrow price reductions. As of June 11th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7378.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.20% compared to the price level at the beginning of June.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In early June, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe became tense, and the risk of crude oil supply increased. At the same time, the increase in seasonal demand has boosted the market, resulting in strong price performance. The decoupling of domestic propane trade is gradually being lifted, supply is relaxed, and cost support for PDH manufacturing enterprises is weakening. There is a certain degree of loose supply in the propylene sector, coupled with average digestion speed, resulting in weak and volatile prices. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials have been fluctuating recently, with mixed ups and downs, and overall support for PP costs is still acceptable.
Supply side:
In early June, the load of domestic PP enterprises increased narrowly, and the market supply remained abundant. Overall, the current industry’s overall load level has fluctuated upwards to over 78% compared to around 77% at the end of May, with an average weekly total output of nearly 760000 tons. There are maintenance plans for enterprises such as Yanshan Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining in the interval. On the other hand, the new production capacity of 1.4 million tons in this quarter is approaching, and the expansion of Yulong Petrochemical and other companies is basically smoothing out the maintenance benefits. The expectation of loose supply in the future is obvious. The total domestic inventory has leveled off at a high level to around 820000 tons. Overall, there is still some suppression on the spot price of PP by the supply side.
In terms of demand:
In early June, the demand side of PP continued to be weak, and on-site trading gradually entered the traditional off-season. Merchants have hardly seen any advance stocking operations, and the market maintains a weak demand situation, with a focus on on-demand use. The consumption level of terminal enterprises in the field of plastic weaving is already at the off-season level. With the passing of the small peak period of materials used in construction, agriculture and other fields in the early stage, the release speed of PP demand has further slowed down. The news of the temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the United States in the early stage stimulated market sentiment, and consumption briefly increased. At present, its impact has been basically digested, with downstream PP enterprises in China experiencing sluggish production, new orders on site, and a tendency towards scattered small orders or contract deliveries, resulting in a return to flat supply liquidity. Overall, the demand side of PP performed poorly in early June.
Future forecast
The domestic PP market price consolidation in June was weak. Fundamentally speaking, the prices of various upstream raw materials have fluctuated, and the overall support for PP is still acceptable. The industry has abundant supply, inventory levels have leveled off, and consumption has entered the off-season level. The current macroeconomic policies have exhausted their positive effects, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply and demand. It is expected that the PP market will continue to weaken and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the new production situation in the industry.