Recently, the domestic formic acid market has maintained a horizontal and volatile pattern. As of October 19th, the benchmark price of formic acid was 2100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The mutual game between long and short factors constrains the market, and there is a lack of upward or downward momentum to break through, resulting in a weak overall trading atmosphere in the market.
Weak performance on the supply and demand side
Last week, the downstream demand for formic acid showed weak performance, and the market lacked large purchase orders. Transactions were mainly supported by scattered downstream demand. Downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of the current formic acid price, and their procurement strategies remain cautious. They tend to replenish as needed and in small quantities, without any willingness to proactively stock up. The insufficient volume of terminal orders directly restricts the market transaction scale. The overall performance of production enterprises’ shipments is average, and there is differentiation in inventory situations among different manufacturers: some factories have a slower shipping pace, and temporary inventory pressure is gradually emerging; The inventory of other production enterprises is maintained within a reasonable range, and inventory pressure is relatively controllable.
Smooth and stable operation of raw materials
There were no significant fluctuations in raw materials this week, and there was no strong support or obvious drag on the price of formic acid from the cost side. The cost remained stable, making it difficult to drive the formic acid market out of a trend. The overall operation of the supply side is relatively stable, and domestic formic acid enterprises have no centralized maintenance or significant increase or decrease in production plans. The market spot supply remains stable, and there has been no extreme situation of shortage or concentrated increase in supply. The stable supply side further consolidates the foundation of formic acid’s horizontal trend.
Market sentiment is mainly wait-and-see
Downstream users mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach, not chasing high prices or hoarding goods; On the one hand, production enterprises are unwilling to publicly lower their quotations to avoid triggering market panic and price reductions. On the other hand, in the face of weak demand, they moderately offer discounts to promote orders in actual transactions. Traders also tend to be conservative in their operations, using and purchasing as needed, reducing hoarding in intermediate links, and basically absent speculative demand in the market. Under the long short game, the market is in a stalemate.
Overall, the current market demand is weak and there is no obvious positive news. The short-term formic acid market is likely to continue the stalemate pattern, and specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated widely this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 117383.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.67% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 4.14%.
Macro wise: The overall macro sentiment this week is bearish, significantly suppressing nickel prices. In September, the US CPI rose by 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 3.4%. The significant increase in gasoline prices by 9.1% month on month contributed more than half of the increase, and the process of inflation falling has stalled. The unexpected CPI data reignited the market’s bet on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, with the US dollar index hitting an 18 month high at one point, forming a systematic pressure on US dollar denominated metals from the valuation side. According to CME data, the probability of a rate hike in October has risen to 33.2%, but officials have since downplayed their stance. However, the overall interest rate environment still puts pressure on the valuation of the non-ferrous sector.
In terms of raw materials, nickel ore, nickel iron, and intermediate products all weakened this week. In the second half of October, Indonesia’s HMA dropped to $15847.67 per ton, with almost zero rise in humus soil. The Philippines’ mining volume increased, and the mining industry turned to buyers. The factory price of high nickel iron has dropped to 1030-1050 yuan/nickel, and steel mills have lowered the price to below 1000 yuan. MHP、 High ice nickel FOB continues to decline, and cost support continues to collapse.
On the supply side: The loose situation on the supply side continues, and the cost support on the mining side is further weakened. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mines predicts that the actual production of nickel ore for the whole year of 2026 will be about 290 million tons, exceeding the RKAB quota limit of 260 million to 270 million tons, and the expectation of tight raw materials will continue to ease. In the first half of October, the benchmark price (HMA) for domestic nickel ore in Indonesia was lowered to $16322.67 per ton, a decrease of 2.25% from the second half of September. The mainstream grade premium of humus ore turned negative for the first time across the board, and the pricing dominance of the mining end has shifted to buyers. The Indonesian Nickel Industry Forum predicts a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% to 4% in total processed nickel production in 2026, but the HPAL wet process project in 2027 will drive a significant increase in production capacity.
On the demand side: The overall demand side is weak, but there is a clear differentiation internally. As stainless steel is the largest consumer of nickel, steel mills continue to lower the price of nickel iron to around 945 yuan/nickel. There is an expectation of a month on month decrease in stainless steel production in October, which has dragged down the consumption of nickel iron. In terms of new energy, the production of ternary materials in September was about 81300 tons, a decrease of about 10.7% compared to August, and the production of ternary precursors was about 89100 tons, a decrease of 7.8% compared to the previous month. However, the terminal demand for ternary batteries has shown strong resilience, and the demand for nickel has not decreased due to the decline in sales of new energy vehicles, but has continued to grow year-on-year. Pure nickel and nickel salt prices have shown a dual track divergence, and the nickel end of the battery has become passive in response to spot fluctuations due to the long-term price lock mechanism, while the price of nickel chloride remains stable.

Influencing factor: The inventory pressure continues to increase. As of October 16th, the previous period’s nickel warehouse receipts increased to 94036 tons, significantly accumulating compared to last week; Although LME nickel inventory has decreased, it still remains at a high level of over 280000 tons. The domestic social inventory of nickel plates is about 122900 tons. Although there has been a slight destocking of 602 tons on a weekly basis, the absolute level is still at a high level, making it difficult to destocking refined nickel. On October 13th, the International Nickel Research Group (INSG) revised the global primary nickel market forecast for 2026 from a shortage of 32000 tons in April to an excess of 19000 tons, and also estimated a surplus of 70000 tons in 2027, further confirming the surplus pattern. In addition, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mines has stated that it will consider tightening the restrictions on new production capacity for semi-finished nickel smelting projects, and has promised to accelerate the RKAB audit in 2027. Policy uncertainty remains a focus of attention in the future.
In summary, nickel prices continued to decline weakly this week, with US inflation exceeding expectations → interest rate hike bets heating up → US dollar strengthening → pressure on non-ferrous metal valuations, coupled with the continued release of Indonesian mining quotas → lower mining prices → weakened cost support, as well as stainless steel prices and ternary production cuts → weakened demand expectations. The triple negative resonance drove prices to break through the cost line. The current nickel price has fallen below the cash cost of about 118776 yuan/ton, and the widespread losses in the smelting process have limited further downward space. However, the high inventory and surplus pattern still suppress the rebound momentum. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a low, weak and volatile pattern in the short term.

The epoxy chloropropane market has been operating steadily this week. As of October 15th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin was 11200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The high price of raw material propylene provides strong cost support for epichlorohydrin. In terms of glycerol, external prices have weakened and demand is poor, but prices remain firm in the context of tight domestic supply. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 15th, the benchmark price of propylene was 10701.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.23% compared to the beginning of this month (9707.67 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The contraction trend is relatively clear. This week, some facilities in Jiangsu, Shandong and other regions stopped and operated with reduced load, and the previously stopped facilities have not been restarted. This week, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic ECH industry has dropped to 44.5%, further decreasing compared to the previous period, and the overall market supply has significantly decreased compared to last week.
On the demand side: focusing on immediate needs and limited volume. The main downstream epoxy resin market saw a slight increase this week, but terminal demand maintained a rigid procurement rhythm and there was no concentrated replenishment behavior. Downstream acceptance of high priced goods is limited, and actual transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs. The demand side lacks sustained upward pressure on prices.
Market forecast: Analysts believe that in the short term, there will be a strong consolidation and limited upward space. The logic of current supply contraction and cost support still exists, and ECH prices are expected to maintain a strong pattern in the short term. However, there is a lack of substantial volume on the demand side, and the weak operation of glycerol prices may weaken the subsequent cost support. It is expected that the ECH market will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations next week, with a focus on changes in the pace of device restarts and downstream inventory replenishment willingness.

1、 Price trend
On October 14th, the domestic market price reference for n-propanol in Shandong was 7850 yuan/ton, which was 650 yuan/ton lower than the reference price of 8500 yuan/ton on October 1st, a decrease of 3.97%.
1、 In early October 2026, the overall market trend of Shandong n-propanol showed a high-level decline. Returning from the National Day holiday, the market for n-propanol in Shandong has experienced a wide decline. The price of n-propanol from major factories in Shandong has fallen below 8000 yuan/ton, causing the overall market focus to decline. In the following two days, the market for n-propanol has slightly rebounded by 50 yuan/ton before stabilizing. As of October 14th, the market price for n-propanol in Shandong is around 7850-8000 yuan/ton.
2、 Market influencing factors
On the demand side: In the early stage, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong rose to a high of 8500 yuan/ton, which was driven by downstream users’ concentrated replenishment and temporary tight supply, and did not reach a long-term tight balance state. After the price was pushed to a high level, downstream markets (such as n-propyl acetate, ink, and coating solvents) began to show cautious sentiment towards high prices. Coupled with the basic end of pre holiday stocking, downstream follow-up procurement was cautious and took goods on demand. After the holiday, the demand for n-propanol significantly contracted.
On the supply side, in recent times, n-propanol manufacturers have been operating steadily, and overall production capacity has not substantially decreased. Factories and traders have concentrated the outflow of pre shipment goods, resulting in more circulating goods and loose spot supply, causing prices to shift from tight to loose.
In terms of cost: The recent market trend of methanol products related to the upstream of n-propanol is weak, and the support provided by the cost side for n-propanol is loose. The raw material support is insufficient, and the n-propanol market support is poor, resulting in a rapid decline in prices.
3、 Outlook for future market trends
At present, the trading atmosphere in the Shandong n-propanol market is mild, and there is still a wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The overall downstream purchasing status is still cautious, and the positive support is limited. Data analysts predict that in the short term, the Shandong n-propanol market will mainly operate in a range of fluctuations. It is also necessary to pay attention to the market’s operating conditions, the recovery of downstream industries such as coatings, and the proactive replenishment of inventory.

1、 Market Overview
The National Day holiday has ended, and the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has fluctuated downward, with the market continuing to weaken. As of October 13th, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) was 3316.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.99% compared to the beginning of this month (3350.00 yuan/ton).
After the holiday, the mainstream price of 62% white potassium in ports decreased by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the price of white potassium in Laos decreased by 50-80 yuan/ton. Low price transactions have emerged in the market, and traders have a strong willingness to ship, causing the market transaction center to shift downward.
3、 Fundamental Logic
supply side
The supply side has abundant sources of goods, and the market is under significant pressure. The domestic potassium chloride plant is running smoothly, with continuous external shipments of goods and firm factory quotations, but the actual circulating price has already broken through. The import of potassium chloride is scheduled to arrive at the port normally, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The social circulation of goods is sufficient, and traders have a strong willingness to ship. Market competition is intensifying, and some goods are being shipped at a discount, further dragging down the spot transaction price.
Demand side
The weak downstream demand is the core factor behind the current market downturn. Under the autumn fertilizer preparation cycle, the operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises is relatively low compared to the same period last year, and the purchasing enthusiasm of enterprises is insufficient. They only maintain small orders for essential replenishment and have weak willingness to stock up in large quantities. The imbalance between supply and demand has intensified, new orders are deadlocked, terminal wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and there is a lack of centralized procurement to drive, making it difficult to support the price of potassium chloride.
4、 Market analysis and judgment
The short-term imported potassium chloride market is likely to maintain a weak downward trend and a low-level oscillation pattern. On the technical side, the moving average has crossed below, and the bearish signal is clear. The price position throughout the cycle is at a low level, but the supply and demand fundamentals have not improved yet. The pressure of high inventory in ports continues to exist, and there is limited room for downstream compound fertilizer production to increase. The demand pull is insufficient, and the phenomenon of traders offering discounts for shipments will continue.
Subsequent focus will be on changes in port inventory, compound fertilizer operating rate, import shipping schedule arrival rhythm, and international potassium fertilizer price trends. If downstream centralized replenishment has not yet been initiated, there is still room for further downward exploration of potassium chloride prices.