1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices first fell and then rose this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 120416.67 yuan/ton, up 2.37% from the beginning of the week and down 3.5% year-on-year.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 6 times and risen 6 times in the past 12 weeks, with a slight decrease in nickel prices recently.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, after the release of November employment data in the United States, market sentiment quickly turned optimistic, with 64000 new jobs added. Although it exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021. The market’s expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has driven up metal prices, as lower borrowing costs are conducive to stimulating the economy and metal demand.
In terms of news, the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the nickel ore production proposed in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) may be about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the production target of 379 million tons in RKAB in 2025; APNI has disclosed that the Department of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to revise the formula for calculating the Mineral Benchmark Price (HPM) for nickel commodities in early 2026. According to APNI, one of the key points of this revision is that the government will begin to value nickel associated minerals (such as cobalt) as independent minerals and impose royalties on them.
On the supply side, Indonesia’s nickel production increased significantly by 16.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025. In recent years, Indonesia has attracted a large amount of investment through its “downstream” strategy, accelerated the landing of smelting capacity, and continued to release supply increments to the global market. The domestic market also shows a trend of capacity expansion, with a year-on-year increase of 21.8% in refined nickel production during the same period.
On the demand side, the trading atmosphere in the downstream stainless steel spot market has improved, with a total inventory of 1.0636 million tons of stainless steel in the mainstream market nationwide, a decrease of 1.55% compared to the previous week. From the perspective of the new energy industry chain, the decline in nickel prices and the approaching year-end have further dragged down the price center due to the emergence of low-priced goods. At the same time, the marginal demand has weakened, and the production of ternary precursors in December has decreased month on month.
In summary, the strategic downward adjustment of Indonesia’s nickel production target indicates that global nickel supply may decrease. Although it can help optimize the global supply structure and build bottom support for nickel prices in the medium to long term, the short-term market will still engage in repeated games between policy implementation effects, supply-demand rebalancing, and macroeconomic variables. It is expected that nickel prices will experience strong fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since December 8th, favorable factors have supported the improvement of the domestic adipic acid market. On December 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 6733 yuan/ton. On December 16th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 6833 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.49%.
The raw material market supports the improvement of the domestic adipic acid market
Since December, the prices of cyclohexanone and pure benzene raw materials for adipic acid have remained strong, running at high levels, supporting the rise of the adipic acid market. The demand for terminal rigidity has increased, and the transaction volume in the adipic acid market has improved. The ex factory prices of manufacturers have gradually increased, and the adipic acid market has rebounded. As of December 16th, the mainstream market price in Shandong is around 6900-7000 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 100 yuan/ton. The mainstream market price in Jiangsu is 6800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 100 yuan/ton. The average price in the domestic market fell to 6800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 100 yuan/ton, an increase of over 1%.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in late December, the rigid demand in the terminal industry will gradually recover, su

pported by the raw material market, and the adipic acid market will continue to rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise recently. As of December 15th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s battery grade lithium carbonate was 96233 yuan/ton, an increase of 4% compared to the same period last week (December 8th), a month on month increase of 12.29%, and a year-on-year increase of 19.69%; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 94533 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.07% compared to the same period last week, a month on month increase of 12.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 21.2%.
Supporting factors for price increase
1. The demand side continues to explode
The explosive growth of energy storage demand has become the core demand pillar, and the order schedule has been extended to 2026, effectively filling the seasonal decline gap in demand for new energy vehicles. In November, the total production of domestic power batteries and energy storage batteries was 176.3 GWh, an increase of 3.3% compared to the previous month.
2. Supply side contraction
Although there was a slight increase in lithium carbonate production in November, with the gradual production of some new production lines, it is expected that domestic lithium carbonate production will increase by about 3% month on month in December, and supply will steadily release. However, the tight supply situation in the lithium mining sector has not improved. Market reports indicate that there is a shortage of mines in Yichun area, and there is no hope for Ningde Times’ Jianxiawo lithium mine to resume production within this year. In the short term, the supply gap is difficult to fill.
3. The trend of destocking continues
According to market data, lithium carbonate inventory decreased at a rate of 3000 tons per week in the fourth quarter, and the trend of destocking supported the upward shift of the price center.
The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the explosive growth of downstream energy storage of lithium carbonate is difficult to reverse in the short term due to the mismatch between supply and demand. Continuous destocking supports price increases and will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Specific attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand and the progress of mining resumption.

This week, the overall supply and demand fundamentals remained stable, downstream users’ purchasing enthusiasm was lower than before, the industry’s capacity utilization rate remained above 80%, excess inventory increased, and the market fluctuated downward. As of December 12th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 7850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week.
Supply surplus:
There is no fluctuation in the equipment during the cycle, and the supply is still saturated. However, due to the lower purchasing enthusiasm of downstream users compared to the previous period, the market maintains a situation of oversupply, and the inventory of acrylonitrile factories is difficult to transfer, resulting in an increase in inventory for some enterprises. However, cost pressures continue to exist, and industry players are also concerned about supply variables, so intermediaries are also cautious in their operations, resulting in a slower downward trend in the market. According to statistics, as of December 11th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 80.6%, unchanged from the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 91800 tons, which is the same as the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 58000 tons, an increase of 0.255 million tons from last week, with some companies experiencing an increase in inventory.
Weak demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 70.53%, an increase of 2.23% compared to last week, and the load of Jilin Petrochemical and other equipment has increased; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 76.53%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 55.69%, which was -0.18% compared to last week. Overall, although demand has increased, the increment is not significant, and the overall demand is still weak.
Cost increase:
During the week, the price of upstream propylene remained firm, and the cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production continued to increase. However, the fluctuation of acrylonitrile prices led to an increase in production losses this week. According to statistics, as of December 11th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6090 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to last weekend. The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 8566 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.11%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -651 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -139 yuan/ton.
In the later stage prediction, the domestic acrylonitrile market is gradually bottoming out, and overall supply remains loose. There are no plans for equipment maintenance or load reduction in the short term, and prices continue to fall below the cost line. Under the pressure of losses, factories will still face production cuts in the later stage. We will continue to monitor the trend of factory equipment and follow up on buying orders.

Market Overview: Cost Support Failure, Continuous Decline (12.1-12.10)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 10th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 4400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58% from the beginning of the month. Recently, the dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market has shown a clear downward trend. Affected by changes in the supply and demand structure, major production enterprises have generally lowered their quotations, and the rise in raw material prices has not been effectively transmitted to the product side, resulting in a deviation phenomenon of “cost increase, product decline” in the market.
Supply side pressure increases
In the early stage, some parking or load reduction devices have been restarted one after another, and the overall operating rate of the industry has rebounded. The market spot supply tends to be loose. Supply recovery is one of the main driving factors for current price pressure, intensifying competition among sellers. Under the strong willingness of enterprises to ship and the strategy of actively lowering prices to reduce inventory, the focus of quotations continues to decline, and the profit margin of enterprises is significantly compressed.
Demand recovery falls short of expectations
The downstream major fields such as polycarbonate (PC) have not yet seen centralized procurement volume. Enterprises generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, only maintaining a small number of on-demand orders, waiting for the substantial recovery of demand in the terminal application field.
The cost transmission mechanism is obstructed
As of December 10th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 8166.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.94% from the beginning of the month. Although the prices of raw materials such as epichlorohydrin have increased, in the context of loose supply and demand, upstream costs are difficult to effectively transmit to downstream, reflecting the current market discourse power tilting towards buyers.
Outlook for the future: Supply and demand outweigh cost, and the market remains stable with small fluctuations
The dimethyl carbonate market is currently in a stage of adjustment dominated by “supply recovery and slow demand”. In the short term, the downward space for prices is limited, but there is a lack of sufficient upward momentum, and it is expected to present a pattern of “large stability, small movements, and narrow fluctuations”.
Great stability: The current price is close to the cost line of some enterprises, and the resistance to further decline is increasing. The market is gradually bottoming out;
Xiao Dong: The supply-demand game continues, and in order to promote shipments, there may still be slight price concessions in some areas.
Whether the market can stabilize and rebound depends on the following factors: whether the supply side actively reduces production to balance the current excess pressure; Can downstream demand experience seasonal improvement or terminal consumption recovery, driving the supply chain to replenish inventory.