Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, as of September 12, the average price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 6 800 yuan/ton (including tax). The price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 33 yuan/ton (including tax) lower than that of September 11, down by 0.49%. At present, the mainstream price range of n-butanol in China is 6 700-6 900 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Beginning early this week (September 9), the market price of n-butanol increased slightly compared with last week. The rising price maintained until mid-week (September 11). Affected by the increase of supply, the downstream purchasing situation was poor, the wait-and-see mood was strong, and the market as a whole was in a stalemate. By September 12, the market price of n-butanol appeared small. The price was flat with that at the beginning of the week, and the average price remained stable at 6,800 yuan/ton. The supply of n-butanol increased in Shandong, and the market mainly took the initiative to receive orders before the short and long holidays. There was little intention to follow up the low-end offer in the market. At present, as of September 12, the ex-factory quotation of n-butanol from Lihua Chemical Company in Shandong Province is around 6,800 yuan/ton, which has been stable for a week; the ex-factory quotation of n-butanol from Luxi Chemical Company is 6,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from September 11; and the ex-factory quotation of n-butanol from Wanhua Chemical Company in North China is stable at 6,900 yuan/ton this week, with no adjustment in the week.

Industry chain: The domestic market of propylene, the upstream product of n-butanol, has been steadily rising as a whole. The price of propylene in Shandong has remained stable. The price of propylene in Shandong has slightly declined by about 50 yuan/ton from 9 to 10 this week. On 11, the price of some enterprises has risen by 50 yuan/ton, and on 12, it has been stable. At present, the market turnover is about 7600-7750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price remains unchanged. It’s still 7,600 yuan/ton. As the Mid-Autumn Festival is approaching, downstream manufacturers are actively stocking up, upstream refineries are more willing to push up, shipments are relatively smooth, and transport of dangerous chemicals is limited during the holidays, spot market is slightly tense, the market or storage space in the short term.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business societies data analysts believe that: in late September, the overall stability of butanol operation is expected to be the main, the market supply is stable under the premise of small price adjustments.

On September 11, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 94.10, which was the same as yesterday. It was 32.99% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 75.59% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of hydrofluoric acid remains low, up to the present domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 370 yuan/ton, the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the hydrofluoric acid market is not moving in the near future. As the downstream demand is not improving, some hydrofluoric acid is not available. Manufacturers continue to reduce prices, hydrofluoric acid market prices continue to fall. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9500-10000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price maintains low level, spot supply is sufficient, but demand is poor, hydrofluoric acid market is weak.

Upstream fluorite market prices fell, up to 11 days fluorite price was 2927.78 yuan/ton, upstream raw material prices fell to the hydrofluoric acid market has a negative impact, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is affected by the lower price of raw material fluorite at a low level. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased, and the price of domestic large enterprises has dropped to 14,000-15,000 yuan per ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, the on-site transaction price is lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, downstream demand is not improving, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

On September 10, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 10th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by 8 US dollars/ton on September 9. The closing price is 768-770 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 787-789 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On September 9, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $57.85 per barrel, an increase of $1.33. Brent crude oil futures rose to $62.59 per barrel, an increase of $1.05. According to the EIA on Thursday morning, Asian crude oil futures prices rose in the morning trading period. Inventory data were released later Thursday in the United States. Previously, the prices of both international benchmark crude oil futures contracts increased by more than $2 per barrel, and the trend of crude oil prices rose, which had a positive impact on downstream petrochemical products and temporarily stabilized the price trend of xylene market. Recently, the textile industry has maintained a low price, PTA price has risen slightly on the 10th day. The average price in East China is raised near 5300-5400 yuan/ton. As of the 9th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 97% and the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%. Due to the limited support of planned overhaul to the market rebound, the trading atmosphere has declined. Traders dominate, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, downstream PTA market prices maintain low volatility, and it is expected that PX market prices will maintain low volatility in the short term.

On September 9, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 65.33, up 0.77 points from yesterday, down 45.62% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), up 34.92% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. The market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China is rising. The downstream factories are just in need of purchasing. Inventory of factories is still under pressure and high-end transactions are blocked. However, the orders on the market are higher than before, and the market price of phthalic anhydride keeps rising. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-law supply negotiations is 6800-7000 yuan/ton, while in naphthalene-law supply negotiations is 6400-6600 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6600-6800 yuan/ton, the market price keeps rising, some manufacturers increase the ex-factory price, the downstream start-up is not high, purchasing on demand is dominant, and the domestic phthalic anhydride market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. The plant operates stably, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride keeps rising.

Recently, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride is 6300 yuan/ton. Due to the overhaul of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of goods on the site is tight, the price of o-phthalic anhydride has risen, the import market of o-phthalic anhydride has not changed much, the domestic market price of o-phthalic anhydride has risen, the recent The quotation is stable. The actual transaction price is based on negotiation. Recently, the domestic overhaul facilities for phthalic anhydride have increased. The supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is very tight. Supported by the price of phthalic anhydride in the upstream raw material, the market price of phthalic anhydride has continued to rise. DOP prices in the downstream rose, isooctanol prices rose, and DOP costs rose. DOP prices rose, DOP downstream demand shocked and declined, customer purchasing enthusiasm was general, downstream PVC market slightly lower, DOP market mainstream transaction price of about 7800 yuan/ton, downstream prices rose, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to continue to rise in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price trend of domestic TDI market declined slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in East China was about 13,000 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average market price in East China was about 12,800 yuan/ton. Within the week, the decline was 1.54%, which was 57.76% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the TDI market in East China is weak, the price trend is down, the atmosphere is still light, the mindset of the operators is weak, and the stability of the offer is the main way to negotiate shipment. As of the 6th, China’s domestic goods with tickets out of the warehouse offer reference 13000-13100 yuan/ton, Shanghai goods with tickets out of the warehouse offer reference 13200-13300 yuan/ton, a single talk, the actual negotiations.

Industry chain: The price trend of nitric acid in upstream is stable, and the market price remains stable at about 1600 yuan/ton in a week. The mainstream quotation of nitric acid in Jiangsu is 1600 yuan/ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable. The demand of nitric acid market is general. The quotation of the manufacturer is basically stable, and the quotation of individual manufacturer is somewhat loose. The nitric acid shipment situation is general. Influenced by the rise of crude oil upstream, the decline of port stocks and the improvement of market turnover, toluene market prices rose sharply this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 6130 yuan/ton, up 6.79% from 5740 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. According to the feedback from traders, the trading volume fell slightly from last week, and the port inventory dropped by about 7,000 tons to about 27,000 tons.

Industry: With the arrival of the traditional peak season in September, Sino-US trade has made TDI and downstream industries export a little laborious. The terminal digestion speed of TDI is not as fast as before, the market demand is weak, the domestic TDI market is weak, the inquiry trade is still weak, the price is low, the turnover is small, a small number of orders follow-up, the mindset of the industry is weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the data analyst of business associations, the domestic TDI market is weak, the overall atmosphere in the field remains light, and follow-up transactions are scarce. It is expected that the TDI market will be disadvantaged in the later period.