Market Review
From October 28th to November 2nd, the spot price of PA66 remained stable at 19100 yuan/ton, and slightly increased to 19200 yuan/ton on November 3rd, with a weekly increase of 0.52%. From the perspective of cycle position, the positions of 10/20/30/60/90 days in the past week have all been at high levels, and the one-year position has risen from the previous mid low level to the median level. The bullish signal of the previous moving average has been realized, and the short-term price has entered a phase of strong oscillation.
Cost side
The upstream support of adiponitrile and adipic acid raw materials is relatively stable, and there has been no significant decrease in raw material costs, which has formed a bottom support for PA66; However, the lack of sustained upward momentum in upstream raw materials and limited driving force on the cost side make it difficult to sustain a significant price increase.
Supply and demand side
In terms of supply, the operating load of domestic PA66 major factories remains relatively stable, with sufficient spot circulation and supply, and no obvious centralized production restrictions or tightening of supply. On the demand side, downstream industries such as modification, auto parts, and textile slicing have a slow pace of following up on demand, mainly relying on buying at low prices and purchasing on demand. There is a lack of large-scale centralized stocking orders, resulting in insufficient demand growth and limiting the room for price increases. The overall situation shows a stable supply and weak demand, with weak sustainability of the upward trend.
Short term forecast for the future market
In the short term, cost support is still present, but downstream demand is unlikely to have a significant outbreak. PA66 is likely to maintain a high volatility trend, and there is insufficient motivation to continue to rise sharply. There is some pressure above, and the market volatility space has narrowed.

Entering October, the domestic MIBK market continued its high volatility pattern after a surge in September, with the overall market initially stabilizing before a slight correction and rebounding again at the end of the year, with prices operating within the high range of the year. According to the price trend monitored by Shengyi Society, the market continued the sharp rise in September at the beginning of this month, with spot prices maintaining a high level around 13500 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, the downstream demand buying rhythm slowed down, and the market transaction follow-up was weak, resulting in a slight decline in prices. After reaching the stage low point in the later part of the month, the market rebounded with the support of tight supply, showing a wide range of fluctuations throughout the month, and forming a clear differentiation from the unilateral upward trend in August and September.
The supply side is the core factor supporting this month’s MIBK price base. The early market surge was mainly due to the maintenance of domestic main equipment, the decline in operating load, and the tightening of spot circulation. This tight supply pattern continued in early October. But as some maintenance facilities gradually resume production, the increase in market supply becomes apparent, and traders have more spot goods in their hands. Coupled with the high prices in the early stage, the willingness of factories to ship has increased, which has suppressed the market in the mid month stage. Overall, the industry’s operating rate in October has rebounded compared to September, but there has been no concentrated increase in volume. Spot inventory is generally at a moderate level and has not formed a significant inventory backlog, thus limiting the downward space for prices.
On the cost side, fluctuations in the raw material acetone market have provided cost support for MIBK, but the driving force has weakened. Acetone is the main raw material for MIBK, and the upward trend in acetone prices in September was an important driving force for MIBK’s sharp rise. However, in October, the acetone market was mixed with long and short positions, with mixed ups and downs. The lack of sustained upward momentum on the cost side made it difficult to drive MIBK to rise sharply again.
The weak performance on the demand side has become the main weakness restricting the upward trend of the market. MIBK is mainly used in the fields of coatings, rubber anti-aging agents, pharmaceutical extraction, etc. In October, the traditional downstream coating industry entered a seasonal off-season, with limited increase in terminal production. Downstream enterprises showed obvious resistance to high priced raw materials, insisting on immediate use and replenishment in small quantities, with few large-scale hoarding operations. The market trading atmosphere was cautious, and basic demand support was still acceptable, but lacked speculative buying orders, making it difficult to drive prices to continue rising.
In the future, the domestic MIBK market is likely to maintain a high level of volatility in the short term. The positive factors are that there is still uncertainty in the operation of some devices, and the probability of concentrated spot trading is not high. There is an expectation of stabilizing acetone on the cost side, which supports the bottom of the price; The downside is that downstream demand is difficult to improve significantly, high prices suppress procurement, and there is pressure from the continued release of new sources of goods in the later stage. It is expected that the mainstream price range of MIBK will fluctuate and consolidate in November, and the possibility of a significant increase or deep decrease is relatively small. The market trend will mainly follow the changes in raw material acetone and the order follow-up of downstream coatings and chemical additives industries. It is recommended that operators closely monitor the dynamics of equipment, raw material prices, and changes in terminal demand, and rationally control the pace of procurement and shipment.

As of October 30th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37% from the zinc price of 26477 yuan/ton on October 1st.
fundamentals
The domestic zinc market as a whole presents a deep “V” – shaped trend of “first suppression and then rise”, with a significant downward shift in the price center. Affected by lower than expected demand and macroeconomic sentiment in the middle of the month, the price rebounded to 25833 yuan/ton at the end of the month, driven by cost support and buying on dips. Overall, zinc prices have undergone a transition from a unilateral decline to a bottoming out rebound this month, and the market is engaged in a fierce game between the reality of “weak peak season” and cost support.
Supply side:
This month, the overall supply of domestic zinc concentrate remained loose. In the early stage, the import ore window was open, and the raw material inventory of the smelter was abundant, resulting in relatively high processing fees (TC) for domestic and imported zinc concentrates. The strength of processing fees allows smelters to still have a certain profit margin when zinc prices fall, and refined zinc production remains high. Supply side pressure continues to transmit to the ingot side.
However, it should be noted that as the zinc price falls below the 25500 yuan/ton mark, the profits of some high cost smelters and mines are significantly compressed, approaching the breakeven line. The contradiction of “loose mining conditions but absolute prices touching the cost line” triggered a strong cost support effect at the end of the month, with short funds taking profits and driving prices to rebound strongly.
Demand side:
The operating rate of downstream galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises is lower than that of the same period in previous years. Affected by the low funding rate of real estate and infrastructure projects, orders for galvanized structural components are weak; Meanwhile, sluggish overseas consumption has led to a decline in export orders for die-casting alloys. The weak demand side directly leads to the sluggish destocking of social inventory, and holders choose to lower prices to destocking in the second half of the month, which is also the core reason for the accelerated decline in zinc prices in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, as prices fell to relatively low levels, some downstream companies had to replenish their inventory on dips, driving a temporary recovery in transactions and supporting price stabilization.
comprehensive analysis
Looking ahead to November, at the macro level, attention should be paid to the pace of overseas interest rate cuts and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Fundamentally speaking, as the northern region gradually enters the heating season, there are expectations of environmental restrictions on production in mines and smelters, and the pressure on the supply side is expected to be marginally alleviated. The demand side may return to a flat state after replenishing inventory at the end of the month, but the support near the cost line will become increasingly significant. It is expected that zinc prices will enter a period of wide fluctuations and bottoming out in November, with the main operating range possibly revolving around 25500-26500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the marginal improvement of downstream real orders and the turning point of social inventory.

On October 29th, the cobalt price was 214300 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 18.79% compared to the cobalt price of 263900 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October 2026, cobalt prices showed a weak pattern of unilateral accelerated decline and repeatedly falling below key integer levels. In October, cobalt prices experienced the largest monthly decline of 2026.
LME cobalt prices fall in October
According to the LME cobalt price trend chart, it can be seen that in October, the LME international cobalt price synchronously followed the decline of domestic spot prices, gradually declined after reaching a high at the beginning of the month, and the linkage between domestic and foreign markets weakened. LME cobalt futures closed down $1110 on October 28th, at $33510/ton, with a downward trend for the month. Far month contracts saw a slight increase, but speculative buying was weak.
Supply side: Centralized supply to the port with increased volume
The CIF China coefficient for cobalt intermediate products has dropped to a low of 12-14 US dollars per pound. The previously accumulated cobalt intermediate products flowed into the country in large quantities in October, and the goods in transit from the Democratic Republic of Congo were concentrated at the port, directly loosening the support for raw material costs; The continuous production of nickel cobalt hydroxide (MHP) in Indonesia has increased the marginal supply of cobalt, and MHP in Indonesia continues to increase in volume; The substitution rate of regenerated cobalt for native cobalt has risen to 34%, further intensifying competition on the raw material side. In October, the supply of cobalt in the market increased, and the shortage of supply in the cobalt market eased.
Demand side: Weak peak season
In the field of power batteries, the ternary route continues to be replaced by lithium iron phosphate, and the installed capacity of ternary batteries has declined year-on-year. In September, the proportion of domestic ternary battery installations has dropped to 14.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%. The substitution effect of lithium iron phosphate on ternary batteries continues to squeeze the basic demand for cobalt. The demand for mobile phones, laptops, and tablets is sluggish, and global smartphone shipments are under pressure in the third quarter. Orders for lithium cobalt oxide are weak, and transactions for cobalt salts and cobalt oxide are sluggish. As the substitution of lithium cobalt oxide by ternary materials accelerates, the production of ternary materials remained stable or even slightly decreased in October compared to the previous month.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Analysts believe that the cobalt market in October is currently experiencing a tug of war between short-term strong supply and weak demand, and medium – to long-term supply shortages. The “story” of medium – to long-term supply contraction has encountered the “reality” of short-term concentrated arrivals and demand collapse. The weak bottoming out of the cobalt market has not yet ended, and the pressure to replenish the metal market is still being released. The true signal of stabilization has not yet been released. Overall, the quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo has not reversed the trend of oversupply, and the supply elasticity of MHP and recycled cobalt in Indonesia is changing the supply structure of cobalt. In addition, the structural adjustment of demand in the cobalt market may lead to oversupply, which may become a future trend. In the future, cobalt prices may continue to decline and seek cost support. The short-term cobalt price of 200000 yuan/ton may form a bottom price support.

In October 2026, the domestic butadiene market first fell and then rose, with an overall upward trend. The market price increased from 13840 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 14300 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.32%.
In October 2026, the market showed a clear two-stage trend. In the first half of the year, the market was under pressure and fell back, with prices briefly declining. This was mainly due to the release of previous supply increments and cautious downstream buying at high prices. The trading atmosphere in the market was weak, and merchants mainly offered discounts for shipments; After mid month, the market bottomed out and rebounded, gradually opening up a rebound channel, and the price center continued to shift upwards. The core factors driving the rebound of the market are, firstly, temporary load reduction and maintenance of some production facilities, periodic tightening of spot circulation sources, and reluctance of traders to sell and push up prices; Secondly, the cost side of naphtha has a strong oscillation, which supports the bottom of butadiene; At the same time, downstream demand for essential purchases has been released after the price has fallen back to a suitable range, driving the improvement of spot transactions and boosting prices. However, there are always shortcomings on the demand side, with a lack of sustained replenishment power downstream and limited ability to bear high prices, which restricts the upward trend. Therefore, the upward pace in this round is relatively mild, and there has been no rapid rise, resulting in an overall volatile upward trend.
Cost aspect: The mainstream production route of butadiene in China is the by-product of cracking naphtha to produce ethylene, and the prices of crude oil and naphtha are the core variables that determine the bottom line of butadiene cost. This month, international crude oil fluctuated widely, with a strong overall focus, which was transmitted to the domestic market. The price of naphtha fluctuated synchronously with crude oil, and the fluctuation range was relatively controllable. The strengthening of the naphtha market has raised the comprehensive production costs of cracking units, providing sustained bottom support for the price of butadiene and compressing the downward space of the market. However, the rising pace of the raw material side is mild, and the upward driving force is limited, making it unable to dominate the butadiene market alone. The rebound in butadiene prices this month is mainly driven by changes in spot supply and demand, and the cost is more of a “bottoming out and preventing decline” function, rather than the core driving force behind this round of price increases. The cost pressure caused by fluctuations in raw materials is partially transmitted downstream during the rise in butadiene prices, but the transmission efficiency is limited, and the raw material cost pressure of downstream rubber and ABS enterprises increases synchronously. As of October 27th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States is $99.90 per barrel; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January contract is $115.81 per barrel.

Supply side:
In October, the overall production level of butadiene in China was relatively high, and mainstream refineries did not have large-scale centralized maintenance plans. The overall supply base of the industry was sufficient, which was a long-term factor that suppressed the sustained rise in the market. The supply rhythm exhibits a phased characteristic of alternating tightness and looseness: all devices operate stably in the first ten days, and the early maintenance devices resume production one after another. The market’s available supply of goods increases, and spot supply is loose, bringing downward pressure to the market; Starting from mid month, multiple cracking units have experienced a reduction in the circulation of goods in some areas due to equipment maintenance and planned load adjustments. The expectation of tight spot prices has also increased, becoming a key positive factor driving the market rebound. Refinery inventory changes synchronously with the market trend. In the first half of the year, when the market weakened, the pressure on refinery shipments increased, and they actively lowered prices to promote inventory clearance; After the mid month price recovery, the speed of inventory digestion in refineries accelerated, inventory pressure eased, and the willingness to raise prices significantly increased. There is obvious regional differentiation, with relatively abundant supply of goods in the main production areas and consumption distribution centers affected by the pace of goods, resulting in temporary tight supply of goods and widening regional price differences. Overall, there is no long-term expectation of significant reduction on the supply side, relying solely on scattered and short-term device adjustments to bring temporary market opportunities.
The listed price of butadiene for each sales company of Sinopec is 13900 yuan/ton as of October 28th, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to September 28th.
Demand side:
The downstream of butadiene is mainly concentrated in butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, ABS resin, and the terminal corresponds to the fields of tires, shoe materials, plastic products, etc. This month, the overall downstream maintains a rigid procurement mode, lacking sustained incremental benefits. The consumer dividend of the previous “Golden September and Silver October” gradually faded in early October, with orders in the tire terminal market falling short of expectations, the speed of finished product inventory reduction slowing down, and tire factories operating at a moderate level without concentrated load lifting actions; Rubber products and shoe material orders are flat, putting pressure on finished product sales. With the mid month price drop of butadiene, downstream enterprises have moderately replenished their inventory at low prices, driving a wave of temporary transaction recovery and supporting price rebound; But after the continuous rise in butadiene prices, downstream finished product costs increased, and the transmission of rubber and ABS products following the price increase was not smooth. The processing profits of enterprises continued to compress, and their resistance to high priced butadiene increased. They quickly stopped replenishing inventory and returned to the on-demand procurement mode. The on-site transactions are mainly small and medium-sized essential orders, with scarce large orders and unsustainable demand follow-up. Whenever prices rise, procurement quickly cools down, becoming the core negative factor limiting the price increase of butadiene.

Market forecast:
In the short term, the domestic butadiene market may continue to fluctuate within a certain range, with mixed long and short factors and insufficient one-sided trend driven market. On the supply side, most of the maintenance windows for mainstream refineries in China have ended, and the start-up of facilities is expected to remain high. The overall supply of goods is sufficient, and without a new centralized maintenance plan, it is difficult for the supply side to have sustained reduction benefits; There are only sporadic temporary negative disturbances, and the positive trend is short-term. On the demand side, it is difficult for downstream rubber and ABS terminal demand to show significant improvement, and the recovery of terminal consumption such as tires is weak. The problem of downstream finished product transmission still exists, and the ability to undertake high priced raw materials is weak. It is highly likely that the pace of demand driven procurement will continue, and the expectation of large-scale centralized replenishment is low. At the cost level, there is still uncertainty in the fluctuations of crude oil and naphtha, and the bottom support of costs is still present, but the upward driving force is limited. Based on comprehensive judgment, if there are no sudden large-scale plant shutdowns, downstream centralized replenishment and other strong stimulus benefits, the possibility of a sharp rise or fall in butadiene prices is relatively small, and the market will fluctuate within the supply and demand game range. Subsequent focus will be on tracking the maintenance status of refinery equipment, downstream rubber and ABS operating loads, and crude oil and naphtha price trends.