According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong fluctuated and stabilized in April. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4762.50 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4825.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.99%.

Upstream methanol situation: In April, the domestic methanol market rose, with a decrease in domestic methanol supply but little change in demand. In addition, some downstream companies began pre holiday stocking before the May Day holiday, and production enterprises continued to reduce inventory. The domestic methanol market continued to rise and operate mainly. The loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has risen significantly, and downstream demand for essential purchases has been maintained. Business Society’s polyformaldehyde analysts predict that prices may fluctuate and rise mainly.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 24th, the average market price of benzoic acid was 9100 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week.

In terms of cost

Mixed xylene: The price of mixed xylene in China has slightly decreased this week. On April 24th, the price of mixed xylene was 7910 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, the price of mixed xylene was 7930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25% from last week. Due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, demand expectations have weakened. International crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, weakening support for the cost of mixed xylene. Overall, the expected decline in the supply of mixed xylene in the later period provides some support for the mixed xylene market.

Acetic acid: The domestic price of acetic acid has dropped this week. On April 24th, the price of acetic acid was 3350 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, the price of acetic acid was 3450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9% from last week. The acetic acid market is running weakly this week. The utilization rate of production capacity has significantly decreased, the inventory of manufacturers has decreased, and the quotation for acetic acid is relatively strong and continues to rise. As downstream restocking continues, the demand for purchasing in the market has gradually stabilized, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened, leading to a decrease in acetic acid prices.

In terms of demand

The downstream polyester industry has a stable operating load around 90%, with average order performance and low willingness to accept high priced raw materials. Downstream factories are cautious in their procurement. In March, there were quite a lot of equipment maintenance in enterprises, with inventory mainly running at a low level. In April, some enterprise equipment restarted, but it still needs some time to recover. With the continuous increase in operating rates, inventory is also constantly increasing. Dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products are in high demand for customers to purchase, and downstream trading is not active.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, cost support has weakened, domestic factories have started operating steadily, and the prices offered by holders have remained stable. Overall, shipments have been relatively flat. It is expected that the market price trend of meta phthalic acid will remain stable.

Product Name: Isopropanol

Latest price: The average market price on April 23rd is 8680 yuan/ton.

Analysis point: On April 23rd, the market price of isopropanol increased. Internationally, isopropanol foreign trade orders are relatively good, and isopropanol factories mainly issue foreign trade orders. On the domestic side, the raw material acetone has significantly increased, providing strong support for the raw material. Boosting confidence in the isopropanol market, active trading on the exchange, and difficulty in finding low-priced sources of goods.

Prediction: In the short term, the isopropanol market is expected to operate strongly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 15th to 22nd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market remained at 9662 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.32% and a year-on-year increase of 1.71% during the cycle. The raw material pure benzene tends to fluctuate strongly, resulting in high cost pressure. Part of the cyclohexanone units have been shut down, resulting in a slight decrease in the supply of cyclohexanone in stock. Downstream purchases are more on demand, and under cost pressure, the low price of cyclohexanone in the market has decreased.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuates at a high level. As of April 22nd, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8717.17 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is close to 70%, which is at a relatively low level. The weekly operating load of cyclohexanone is 66.36%, and the weekly production is 100600 tons, which is a decrease from the previous cycle. The supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The market price of caprolactam has fallen, some maintenance devices have resumed, supply has increased, and downstream PA6 chip prices have partially fallen. The procurement of raw materials for polymerization factories has slowed down, and overall market confidence is weakening. The focus of spot negotiations for caprolactam is decreasing. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene is operating in a volatile manner, with high cost pressure. Downstream demand is average, and the market spot supply is stable. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a high rise, and spot prices of various brands have been adjusted. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 19th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12450 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 2.36% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: This week, the domestic ABS industry has taken on the pattern of load reduction and adjustment in the early stage, with an average weekly operating rate of around 56%. Although there has been a resumption of work in Dagu, Tianjin recently, there will be varying degrees of load reduction in Haijiang, Shandong, and Lihuayi in the future, and the supply of goods on site will still be reduced. The supply side has strong support for ABS spot goods.

Cost factor: In recent times, the overall trend of ABS upstream materials has maintained the previous pattern, with the acrylonitrile market continuing to rise. The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid ammonia have risen, and the cost support for acrylonitrile is strong; After the load of the acrylonitrile unit decreased in the early stage, the supply side declined, and there has been no news of resuming work recently. The main enterprises have actively increased prices, forming supplier support for acrylonitrile; The overall downstream consumption situation is mainly based on demand, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate mainly in the high range in the future.

This week, the domestic butadiene market remained strong at a high level. The external market prices are high, and some sources of goods are trading overseas orders during the export window period. At the same time, some auction sources sold at a premium to support spot prices. Domestic production has rebounded narrowly, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene is not significant. The consumption of downstream major industries is average, and it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to operate at a high level in the future.

The styrene market remained positive this week. In the early stage, the inventory of styrene at the port was digested smoothly, but in recent times, both supply and demand have increased, and market momentum has increased. The inflow of funds into the market has had an impact, leading to an increase in bullish sentiment among businesses. At the same time, costs have not yet moved away from the high support position, and it is expected that styrene may still rise in the future.

In terms of demand: Recently, the main terminal demand for ABS has remained stable, and the overall factory load has remained stable with minor fluctuations. The stocking operation is mainly focused on buying in demand. The current low-end supply in the market is decreasing, and traders are actively reporting high. Considering the high rise in ABS prices, buyers are gradually showing resistance to high-end supply. On exchange trading is average, and the demand side is helping to stabilize the market.

Technical analysis

The probability of an upward trend in the ABS market is higher than that of a downward trend, and spot prices may continue to rise within a narrow range. According to the prediction model of the Business Society Commodity Analysis System, since January 14, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 39.13%.

Historical price monitoring [medium to low]: Since the beginning of 2024, ABS prices have been continuously in an upward trend. The current monitoring levels are 1-year high, 2-year medium, and 3-year medium low. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ABS in the past three years is 13420.95 yuan/ton, with a median value of 14475 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 10300 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 18650 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest historical price difference in the past three years) is 2150 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest historical price difference in the past three years) is -6200 yuan/ton.

This week, the 30 day moving average of ABS fluctuated from 87.5 yuan to 227.08 yuan, indicating a fluctuating upward trend in ABS prices.

Future Market Forecast

The current domestic ABS prices are maintaining a high and rising trend. From a fundamental perspective, the momentum of the upstream three materials of ABS has not weakened, and it is expected that the market will continue to maintain a high level in the future, with strong support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant is expected to remain at a low level, and supply tends to be tight. Due to the high price range of ABS, it has affected some stocking consumption. The current demand side just needs to enter the market, and the support for spot goods is gradual. Technically speaking, the probability of the 7-day line crossing the 30-day line in the short term is relatively small, and the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe indicates that the probability of ABS maintaining a strong market in the future is higher. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market will remain strong at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the trend of demand.