Recently (3.1-3.17), the domestic EVA market has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11716 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.44% from 10150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
In early March, the escalation of the US Iran conflict raised concerns about shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, causing international crude oil prices to skyrocket by over 13% in a single day. Brent crude oil once exceeded $100 per barrel, directly pushing up the cost of ethylene monomer and vinyl acetate raw materials upstream of EVA. At the same time, the 280000 tons/year EVA plant in Fujian, China, has started a 53 day comprehensive overhaul, covering core production units. In addition, overseas companies such as Hanhua, Lotte, and TPI in Thailand have issued force majeure announcements, suspending US dollar quotations, and global supply tightening expectations are rapidly fermenting.
Recently (3.1-3.17), EVA production has started around 8.10%. During the cycle, the prices of raw materials such as ethylene and vinyl acetate have significantly increased, and the cost has strengthened due to the support of EVA. As of March 16th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 62.39% from 5850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 16th, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 8000 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.45% from 5950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Recently (3.1-3.17), the demand for EVA in the market has been hot and cold. At the beginning of the month, due to geopolitical conflicts and maintenance of large enterprise facilities, EVA prices have risen significantly, causing downstream demand to panic and replenish inventory; The factories in the middle and lower reaches have completed phased replenishment in the early stage, and their acceptance of high priced goods has significantly decreased. Coupled with the rapid price fluctuations, it has triggered a wait-and-see attitude, and actual transactions have stagnated.
In the future, the EVA market is expected to remain in a high volatility pattern in the short term, mainly influenced by the evolution of the Middle East situation, the progress of petrochemical maintenance, and the digestion of downstream inventory. If geopolitical conflicts persist, crude oil prices may remain high, and cost support will continue; The speed of downstream inventory digestion will affect the increase in EVA.

In the first half of March, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a trend of initially strong gains, followed by high-level consolidation and decline. The market offers mixed ups and downs, but overall positive support is concentrated and strong; Most traders maintained high and firm quotes, while some merchants tentatively negotiated shipments. The bullish sentiment in the market gradually cooled down, and actual transactions were light.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 16th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 4716.67 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 25.78% in half a month.
Core driving factors
Cost aspect: the core driving force behind the upward trend
The tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has raised concerns about energy supply, and the significant strengthening of international crude oil has driven the rapid rise of two major raw materials, methanol and epichlorohydrin. The cost pressure on dimethyl carbonate enterprises has sharply increased, forcing them to significantly raise their prices and concentrate on selling, becoming the core driving force behind this round of market growth.
Methanol: Under the multiple supports of continued geopolitical disturbances, expected import contraction, and gradual downstream recovery, the market maintains a strong operation. On March 16th, the price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2840.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.13% from the beginning of the month, which strongly supported the cost of dimethyl carbonate.
Epoxy propane: The market is currently in a stalemate, with stable operation of supply side equipment, smooth shipment from production factories, low inventory pressure, and high price operation. On March 16th, the price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 10016.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.21% from the beginning of the month, further consolidating the cost support of dimethyl carbonate.
Supply side: Periodic tightness, driving price increases
Mainstream devices are operating normally, and the industry as a whole is operating steadily, but there is no significant increase in production capacity. The overall inventory of the factory is low, and some manufacturers have slowed down their order and contract delivery pace, resulting in tight spot circulation in the market. The strong willingness of suppliers to raise prices, coupled with traders holding back their stocks and waiting for price increases, further exacerbates the tense atmosphere of spot trading.
Demand side: driven by urgent needs, with a strong wait-and-see attitude
The overall demand shows the characteristics of weak recovery of rigid demand, high price suppression of procurement, and light transaction volume. The battery side is the only highlight, while traditional solvents and PC side are weak, and overall support for high prices is limited. Mainly focusing on essential small orders, scattered orders, and on-demand replenishment, without centralized procurement or stockpiling; There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment and low willingness to chase after high prices downstream.
Short term outlook
There is a lack of significant improvement on the demand side, with high prices continuing to suppress downstream demand, and the market lacking sustained upward momentum; The high volatility on the cost side is intensifying, and the supplier’s efforts to raise prices may gradually weaken. It is expected that the market for dimethyl carbonate will fluctuate weakly at a high level in the second half of March, and there is a risk of price decline. The focus will be on the trend of raw materials, changes in factory inventory, and downstream real procurement follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 9th to 13th, the domestic BDO price rose from 7557 yuan/ton to 7757 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.65% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 5.23%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.60%. Domestic BDO supply continues to shrink, cost pressures increase, and high bidding results support the supply side’s market support mentality. However, the actual demand performance downstream is average, with urgent orders following up and resistance to high prices, resulting in a narrow upward trend in the overall market, but limited actual trading volume.
On the supply side, the industry’s capacity utilization rate is relatively low, supported by favorable supply side inventory. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, due to regional conflicts and changes in their own supply and demand relationships, the prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide, methanol, natural gas, and maleic anhydride have risen, and the cost pressure on the BDO industry has increased. At the same time, there has been an increase in auctions within the week, with many transactions taking place at high prices, supporting the supply side’s market support mentality. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are rising, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream industries, driven by the rise in raw material prices, have seen an upward trend in market conditions in many downstream industries. However, the transmission of costs is not smooth, resulting in little change in the operating load of downstream industries and mainly consuming raw material inventory. The demand for BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future forecast, as BDO prices rise, downstream acceptance capacity weakens, and the supply-demand game intensifies, BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation.

This week, the mainstream price of epoxy propane in the market has exceeded the 10000 yuan mark. In the main production area of Shandong, the mainstream negotiated price in the market has reached 10500 yuan/ton (ex factory in foreign exchange), with a daily increase of 1500 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.67%. Some production enterprises also reported a factory price of 10500 yuan/ton on March 9th. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of March 10th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 11016.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 37.71% compared to March 1st.
Raw material side: Recently, international oil prices and imported raw material prices (such as propane and methanol) have risen significantly. This directly increases the production cost of propylene and other epoxy propane raw materials, forming a transmission chain of “rising import costs → rising propylene costs → rising epoxy propane prices”. The liquid chlorine market is fluctuating upwards, further increasing cost support. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of March 10th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9701.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 51.32% compared to the beginning of this month (6411.00 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The overall operation of domestic epoxy propane production facilities is mainly stable, but there are fluctuations in load reduction in some individual enterprises. Overall, the industry’s operating rate remains relatively high, at around 77.34% to 80%. However, the shipping atmosphere of suppliers is good, and some companies have even temporarily closed their orders without reporting.
On the demand side: Downstream polyether and other enterprises face huge cost pressures, with prices passively rising. Some enterprises have expressed expectations of reducing negative costs, and their purchasing mentality has also turned cautious, mainly focusing on following up on essential needs or executing contracts.
Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the significant increase in raw material prices will support the epoxy propane market price, and downstream enterprises will passively increase prices, but follow-up is limited, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable at a high level in the short term. More attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

In early March, the domestic ABS market experienced an epic rise, with significant increases in spot prices for all grades. The market atmosphere shifted from a post holiday calm to a hot one. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 9th, the average price of ABS sample products was 14233.33 yuan/ton, with a price level increase of 59.45% compared to the beginning of the month. Some grades even saw a weekly increase of over 3000 yuan/ton, setting a record for the highest increase in recent years.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: coexistence of start-up recovery and maintenance expectations
Since returning after the holiday, the load of the domestic ABS industry has fluctuated and increased. In early March, the production capacity of enterprises such as Zhenjiang rose at a low level, and the overall operating level of the industry increased by about 6% to 70%. The weekly average output rebounded to 150000 tons, and the inventory position of aggregation enterprises was digested to 187000 tons. However, there is a 45 day maintenance plan for the midstream of Yingshili benzene, and Zhangzhou is expected to experience a decrease in load from March to April due to insufficient upstream raw material supply. Coupled with the impact of the atmosphere of reluctance to sell and speculation in the domestic market, the on-site supply is more inclined towards tight balance. Overall, despite the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in the industry, the short-term supply side provides strong support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: Geopolitics triggers upstream three materials, with unprecedentedly strong cost support
In early March, due to the Middle East conflict affecting oil and gas production and supply, the escalation of the US Iran standoff, and the risk of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, directly triggered market panic over energy and raw material supply. The upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the same petrochemical product, were simultaneously subjected to severe impact.
Acrylonitrile: The price increase of acrylonitrile in the market is expanding, and the cost push is gradually increasing. Industry players are concerned about the continued supply of raw materials. Under the pressure of losses and expectations of supply variables, the market has a strong bullish atmosphere, and major suppliers have significantly increased their quotes. However, in the short term, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant, and attention should be paid to the degree of raw material acceptance under the squeeze of downstream product profits.