According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 27th, the price of lead 1 # was 16405 yuan/ton, fluctuating and rising by 0.28% compared to the lead price of 16360 yuan/ton on March 23rd.
This week’s market analysis
The domestic lead market has shown a stable trend of narrow range strong oscillation and a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Shanghai lead futures and spot prices have risen moderately in sync, without experiencing severe fluctuations. The core of the market is driven by four factors: rigid raw material costs, tight supply of recycled lead, depletion of social inventory, and downstream demand replenishment. The overall situation is in a balance of long and short positions with strong bottom support.
raw material end
Primary lead: tight supply of lead concentrate, low inverted processing fees
Domestic lead concentrate TC (processing fee) 250 yuan/metal ton, imported TC -135~-145 US dollars/dry ton, continuously inverted. The resumption of production in domestic mines is slow, and imported mines are affected by Australian shipments and geopolitical disturbances, resulting in an overall tight mining situation. The raw material procurement of the smelting plant is cautious, with a focus on replenishing inventory for urgent needs and no large-scale reserve inventory, resulting in rigid cost support.
Recycled lead: The price of waste batteries remains strong, but smelting is experiencing deep losses
Recycled lead refining enterprises generally suffer from deep losses (about -800 yuan/ton or more), with operating rates of only 30% -40%, and many places have reduced or stopped production. The contraction of recycled lead production and the decrease in spot circulation have become important bottom support for lead prices.
Supply and demand side
Native stability, weak regeneration, overall tightness. Primary lead, Yunnan and Hunan refineries are gradually resuming production, but the operating rate is only 60% -65%, and the output is moderately recovering. Regenerated lead: Loss restricts resumption of production, with a weekly operating rate of 39.57% and limited supply increment. Social inventory has slightly decreased from high levels, factory inventory is low, and spot circulation is tight. Smelters are reluctant to sell at low prices and have a strong willingness to raise prices, resulting in a rapid decrease in low-priced supply in the market.
The demand for batteries remains stable, with a mild recovery during peak seasons. The operating rate of downstream lead-acid batteries is 73% -74%, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. Procurement mode: small order, urgent need, on-demand purchase, fear of high but not absent, no centralized replenishment, limited price increase.
comprehensive analysis
The short-term lead price maintains a strong range of fluctuations, with limited downward space and restricted upward height. Focus on the production of recycled lead and the price of waste batteries: if losses improve, supply will rebound and lead prices will come under pressure; Conversely, it tends to be stronger.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has seen a significant increase in recent times. As of March 23, the average market price of maleic anhydride remained at 8350 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.40% from 7775 yuan/ton on March 16.
On the supply side: The market for maleic anhydride fell last week and was significantly boosted at the beginning of this week, with prices from major factories continuing to decline; At the beginning of this week, Wanhua’s auction in East China saw a significant increase, with major manufacturers of maleic anhydride following suit. As of March 23rd, the factory price of solid anhydride in the maleic anhydride market in Shandong Province is around 8200 yuan/ton, while the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 8000 yuan/ton.
Upstream: Saudi Arabia’s CP price remained stable at $540/ton in March. Currently, geopolitical conflicts have affected subsequent butane transportation, resulting in high costs. At the beginning of the week, the international crude oil market rose, and the price of liquefied gas from Shandong refineries increased significantly. Domestic n-butane prices have risen to 7200 yuan/ton.
Downstream: The unsaturated resin market rose at the beginning of the week, mainly due to the significant increase in raw material maleic anhydride and the support of unsaturated resin costs. However, downstream enterprises are digesting their inventory and have a strong wait-and-see attitude, with procurement mainly focused on meeting basic needs.
According to the analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products, short-term domestic conflicts are still the main factor affecting the trend of maleic anhydride. The supply of raw material n-butane is tight, and the market has risen sharply, supporting the maleic anhydride market. However, the sustainability of downstream unsaturated resin high price orders is not good, and the recent maleic anhydride market may mainly fluctuate at a high level.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic formic acid market has shown a gradual upward trend recently. As of March 23, Shengyi Society’s 85% industrial grade formic acid was 3000 yuan/ton, an increase of 9% compared to the same period last week (March 16), a month on month increase of 23%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.77.
Continuous contraction on the supply side
Starting from March 19th, some production enterprises have temporarily suspended production, resulting in a continuous contraction of effective supply in the market. Coupled with the existing trend of supply reduction in the market, the expectation of tight supply is gradually rising. In addition, market news shows that major production enterprises in Shandong Province plan to carry out maintenance on a total of 350000 tons of formic acid plants in March, which further strengthens the expectation of supply contraction. On March 23, data showed that the operating rate of the domestic formic acid market has decreased, the market supply continues to decrease, and inventory also shows a continuous downward trend. The tight supply-demand balance pattern has officially formed, providing strong support for a significant price increase. At the same time, the international market environment also has an indirect impact on the domestic supply side. The Middle East conflict has led to soaring energy and raw material costs, and European chemical companies such as BASF have raised formic acid prices, further driving the global formic acid market to shift its focus and providing external support for domestic manufacturers to adjust prices.
Good performance on the demand side
Since mid to late March, the shipment situation in the formic acid market has remained good, with downstream procurement following up on demand, sufficient support for essential needs, smooth product distribution channels, effectively driving production enterprises to reduce inventory and providing confidence for manufacturers to raise prices. From the perspective of the international market, the price of formic acid abroad rose significantly in mid to late March, which led to a significant increase in domestic demand for formic acid exports. Especially in emerging markets in Southeast Asia such as Vietnam, which have a high dependence on Chinese formic acid, the growth of export demand has further amplified the supply-demand gap in the domestic market. The combination of internal and external favorable factors has prompted domestic manufacturers to continuously raise the ex factory price of formic acid.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid to late March, the domestic formic acid market price gradually shifted from stable consolidation to sustained upward trend. The core logic lies in the resonance between the continuous contraction of the supply side and the steady improvement of the demand side, coupled with the driving force of international market price increases and the support of manufacturer maintenance expectations, promoting the market supply and demand pattern to shift from dynamic balance to tight balance, and successfully breaking through the integer threshold of 3000 yuan/ton. In the future, with the implementation of maintenance plans by some manufacturers at the end of the month, the market supply will further shrink. Coupled with the continued transmission of favorable overseas markets and the release of domestic export demand, there is still room for further increase in formic acid prices. Meanwhile, specific attention still needs to be paid to the impact of geopolitical changes on energy and raw material costs, changes in downstream demand, and the implementation of maintenance plans,

This week (3.16-3.20), according to the price data from Shengyi Society, polyester bottle flakes first surged and then fell back from high levels. On Monday, due to the multiple impacts of the surge in crude oil and raw materials, tight spot supply, and futures limit up, the ex factory price of East China bottle flakes quickly rose from about 8650 yuan/ton to over 9200 yuan/ton; From Tuesday to Friday, due to downstream resistance to high prices, reduced procurement, and a decline in raw material prices, prices gradually fell and closed at 8407 yuan/ton on Friday
1、 Main cause of inflation (Monday)
Cost side: Middle East geography → Crude oil/Brent breaks 100% → PX/PTA/EG all rise sharply, with strong cost push
On the supply side, the operating rate is only 69-70%, and the available days of the factory and warehouse are 7-8 days (historically low); Large factories are closing down and reluctant to sell, while spot circulation is tight
• Demand side: stocking up during peak beverage season+positive exports+buying sentiment, downstream chasing orders and hoarding
Futures: Funds rise, limit up drives spot sentiment
2、 Main cause of decline (Tuesday to Friday)
Downstream resistance: High prices suppress procurement, while terminals mainly digest inventory and sporadic demand, resulting in poor price transmission
• Raw material pullback: Crude oil/PX/PTA fell from high levels, and cost support weakened
• Emotional cooling: cautious pursuit of high prices, partial profit taking orders shipped, high-level transactions turned weak
Supply and demand and inventory
Supply: The weekly operating rate was 69.2%, slightly higher than the previous period but still relatively low; No large-scale new production capacity, tight balance of spot goods
• Inventory: The available days of inventory in the factory are 7.76 days, a significant decrease compared to the previous period and at a historical low
• Demand: The peak season for beverages/packaging has started, but the main demand is for essential items at high prices, and there is a lack of momentum in chasing after higher prices
Outlook for next week (from 3.23 onwards)
• Interval: Expected to fluctuate at a high level of 8600-9200 yuan/ton
• Support: Low inventory, tight supply, and continued demand during peak season
• Pressure: Limited downstream acceptance of high prices, decline in raw material prices, and cooling of the pursuit of high prices sentiment

Recently (3.1-3.17), the domestic EVA market has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11716 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.44% from 10150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
In early March, the escalation of the US Iran conflict raised concerns about shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, causing international crude oil prices to skyrocket by over 13% in a single day. Brent crude oil once exceeded $100 per barrel, directly pushing up the cost of ethylene monomer and vinyl acetate raw materials upstream of EVA. At the same time, the 280000 tons/year EVA plant in Fujian, China, has started a 53 day comprehensive overhaul, covering core production units. In addition, overseas companies such as Hanhua, Lotte, and TPI in Thailand have issued force majeure announcements, suspending US dollar quotations, and global supply tightening expectations are rapidly fermenting.
Recently (3.1-3.17), EVA production has started around 8.10%. During the cycle, the prices of raw materials such as ethylene and vinyl acetate have significantly increased, and the cost has strengthened due to the support of EVA. As of March 16th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 62.39% from 5850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 16th, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 8000 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.45% from 5950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Recently (3.1-3.17), the demand for EVA in the market has been hot and cold. At the beginning of the month, due to geopolitical conflicts and maintenance of large enterprise facilities, EVA prices have risen significantly, causing downstream demand to panic and replenish inventory; The factories in the middle and lower reaches have completed phased replenishment in the early stage, and their acceptance of high priced goods has significantly decreased. Coupled with the rapid price fluctuations, it has triggered a wait-and-see attitude, and actual transactions have stagnated.
In the future, the EVA market is expected to remain in a high volatility pattern in the short term, mainly influenced by the evolution of the Middle East situation, the progress of petrochemical maintenance, and the digestion of downstream inventory. If geopolitical conflicts persist, crude oil prices may remain high, and cost support will continue; The speed of downstream inventory digestion will affect the increase in EVA.