According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has been weak and adjusted since January. As of January 17th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5019 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17% from the beginning of the month.
Recently, PTA plant restarts and maintenance coexist. Dushan Energy’s 3 million ton plant restarted on January 14th, Yisheng New Materials’ 3.6 million ton plant stopped on January 14th, and Zhuhai BP’s 1.25 million ton plant stopped on January 16th. Overall production has decreased to around 75%.
The disappearance of geopolitical premiums coupled with inventory pressure has led to a sharp decline in international crude oil prices, ending a five-day streak of gains. On January 15th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $59.08 per barrel, a decrease of $2.80 or 4.5%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March was $63.76 per barrel, a decrease of $2.76 or 4.1%.
Downstream polyester experienced seasonal decline before and after the Spring Festival. After the concentrated fermentation of downstream polyester production reduction news, a new round of production reduction for polyester filament began (mainstream filament manufacturers decided to start a one quarter continuous production reduction from January 14th, with a magnitude of 15%), and PTA traders’ willingness to hold goods weakened.
And the overall new order atmosphere of the terminal weaving end is still poor. At the beginning of the month, driven by the rising atmosphere of crude oil and costs, some customers with low inventory or intention to stock up on raw materials after the new year were driven to purchase raw materials. The overall wait-and-see sentiment is strong, maintaining a strong demand for raw material procurement.
Business analysts believe that PTA supply and demand expectations are gradually weakening, and there is significant pressure on inventory accumulation in February. It is expected that PTA prices will mainly follow fluctuations in raw materials in the short term.

Bromine is the only non-metallic substance in liquid form at room temperature, with the chemical formula Br2. It has a deep reddish brown color and a pungent odor. Bromine has lively physicochemical properties and can form a wide variety of inorganic bromides as well as a large number of organic compounds containing bromine. Due to the unique physicochemical properties of different bromides, bromine has become a widely used basic chemical raw material and is one of the key raw materials for chemical production and even the entire industrial production.
Take a look at the price of bromine: According to the commodity analysis system, the overall trend of bromine prices is expected to rise in 2025, with an average market price of 21900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 36100 yuan/ton at the end of the year, representing a price increase of 64.84%.
In 2025, there will be an increase of one month in August, a decrease of three months, and a stabilization of one month. The month with the largest increase was March, when prices rose by 33.03%, and the month with the largest decrease was April, when prices fell by 25.5%.
Let’s take a look at the annual comparison chart of bromine. The overall price of bromine has been weak this year, and its price is at a relatively low historical level in about 5 years.
Let’s take a look at the specific price trend of bromine: From January to February, the price of bromine remained stable. At this stage, bromine was stocked before the festival, and construction began gradually after the festival. However, downstream demand is still mainly based on on-demand procurement, and the supply-demand game may continue to consolidate the operation of bromine. The price of bromine rose in March due to tight bromine inventory, active demand from downstream flame retardant manufacturers, and delayed imports of bromine, resulting in a price increase. It is expected that the price will remain stable with some increase in the short term. The price of bromine fell in mid to late April, mainly due to the increase in market supply and high inventory of bromine enterprises caused by the warming weather. In addition, China’s dependence on bromine imports is relatively high, and it is now approaching normalcy. In the early stage, the price of bromine rose, but downstream resistance led to demand driven procurement, resulting in weak bromine prices. From May to the end of August, the price of bromine continued to rise. With the improvement of downstream demand due to the warming weather and the impact of Hedgehog environmental inspections, the pressure on bromine inventory in enterprises was not significant, and the quotation remained firm. At this stage, there was also a decrease in supply during the rainy season, but downstream demand was average, and prices remained firm due to the pull of supply and demand. In September, there was a slight downward trend. Originally, due to the impact of the Golden September and Silver October, prices were expected to rise. Although environmental inspections and rainy season precipitation had little pressure on bromine inventory in enterprises, and spot supply in the market was relatively tight, bromine prices rose and downstream resistance caused bromine prices to decline. The price of bromine has been rising from early October to the end of the year.
Although the price of bromine in 2025 is historically low, can it maintain a strong market in 2026 compared to the overall annual increase?
On the supply side: From the supply side, there has been relatively little change in the supply of bromine in China, and the overall supply trend is relatively stable. Due to the decreasing underground brine resources, the increase in bromine production capacity in China is slow. The data shows that by 2025, the domestic bromine production capacity will be approximately 85000-95000 tons, with a production of 63000 tons.
In terms of import and export: Currently, the self-sufficiency rate of China’s domestic bromine market is not high, and bromine heavily relies on imports. China’s bromine self-sufficiency rate has remained at a low level in recent years, but the dependence on bromine imports is high, and the supply of the bromine industry chain is constrained by countries such as Israel, the United States, and India. Customs data shows that the annual import volume of bromine in China will be close to 80000 tons in 2025.

In terms of fuel, the long-term sluggish downstream demand has led to slow inventory consumption by manufacturers. The main flame retardant, tetrabromobisphenol A, maintains low load operation with low prices. The price of tetrabromobisphenol A is close to the cost line, resulting in a significant compression of profits. At the same time, there is a lack of order support. Bromine procurement is mainly sporadic replenishment, while flame retardant manufacturers only focus on essential replenishment.
Prediction: Business Society analysis believes that the price of bromine has been firm in the near future, and the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have received moderate support. The current operating situation of the bromine industry is at a low point throughout the year, and manufacturers generally have insufficient inventory. Important news has come from overseas markets, and some bromine factories in Jordan have entered a temporary shutdown. The change in bromine supply in our country is relatively small, and we rely on imported bromine from abroad. Overall, it is expected that the short-term price of bromine will remain strong in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 4th to 9th, MTBE prices fell from 4853 yuan/ton to 4783 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.44% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 2.98%, and a year-on-year drop of 17.35%. The domestic MTBE market is showing a fluctuating downward trend, with significant local declines. On the first day of the New Year holiday, the trading atmosphere in the domestic MTBE market was good, with prices being relatively firm. However, the follow-up of terminal demand could not be sustained. In addition, the international crude oil trend fell, MTBE export negotiations were weak, and domestic supply pressure was high. Under the dominance of negative factors, manufacturers began to give up profits, and the focus shifted significantly downwards in some areas.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: the international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are that the situation between the United States and Venezuela has not yet intensified, and the market believes that Venezuela’s domestic production will increase in the long term, posing a risk of oversupply. As of January 8th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the March contract was $61.99 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, the weak performance of crude oil has affected the oil market, and the decline in refined oil prices continues. At present, terminal demand is weak, and social units’ inventory digestion is slow. Intermediate traders are cautious in their ordering operations. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: The sample capacity utilization rate of MTBE export factories in Shandong region is 63.33%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points. The shutdown of Dongfang equipment has resulted in a decrease in operating rate. The supply of MTBE is affected by favorable factors.
As of the close on December 8th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $1.95/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $608.32-610.32/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $14.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $705.74-706.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $35.88/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $623.43-623.78/ton (176.03-176.13 cents/gallon).
In the future, it is predicted that there will be significant pressure on domestic supply, but there will be no significant improvement in the demand for gasoline terminals. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly consolidating weakly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 6410 yuan/ton on January 2 and 6625 yuan/ton on January 9, an increase of 3.35%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8400 yuan/ton on January 2nd and 8933 yuan/ton on January 9th, an increase of 6.38%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 6862 yuan/ton on January 2nd and 7022 yuan/ton on January 9th, an increase of 2.33%.
Recently, the price of polyethylene has been continuously increasing. On the supply side, with increased maintenance and controllable inventory, some sources of goods are tight. HDPE plants in Ningxia and LDPE plants in Maoming have entered maintenance, and the short-term supply pressure has slightly eased. On the demand side, the peak season for agricultural film has ended, and the production of greenhouse film in the north has basically stagnated, with orders continuing to decline; The orders for packaging film have slightly increased, only maintaining the pace of replenishing inventory for essential needs. Downstream factories are resistant to high priced raw materials, mostly for essential purchases, and are cautious when entering the market. Actual transactions are mainly based on low-priced sources. Cost aspect: Supported by the increase in raw material prices in the early stage, the polyethylene market is booming. Futures: The main contract for polyethylene fluctuated and climbed, with a significant increase at the close of January 7th compared to before the holiday. Futures remained high on January 8th, continuing to support the sentiment of the spot market. The mentality of the industry has significantly improved, and the prices of petrochemical enterprises and traders have not increased.
Prediction: Short term support from futures and tight supply of some goods will maintain a strong consolidation in the market. In the medium to long term, the off-season for agricultural film demand will continue, and downstream production will further decline as the Spring Festival approaches. Coupled with expectations of new capacity release, the upward space for polyethylene is limited.

The domestic PX price trend is expected to rise in 2025, with an average price of 7108.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 7500 yuan/ton at the end of the year, representing an annual increase of 5.51%. From the PX price trend chart, it can be seen that the highest price of PX in 2025 appeared in early March, with a maximum price of 7600 yuan/ton, and the lowest price of PX appeared in mid May, with a minimum price of 6600 yuan/ton. Overall, the domestic PX price trend is rising.
The domestic PX market in 2025 will mainly be divided into four stages:
In the first stage from January to mid March, the PX market trend rose. During this period, the PX plant traditionally had a low start-up period, coupled with delays in resuming production after some companies’ pre holiday maintenance, resulting in a domestic operating rate of only about 80% and a decrease in production by about 5% compared to the previous period. PTA enterprises gradually resumed production after reducing their burden before the holiday, and the operating rate rebounded from 65% at the beginning of the year to 78% at the end of March. The rigid procurement demand for PX increased, which supported the rise of PX market prices.
The second stage is from mid March to mid May, during which PX prices significantly decrease. During this period, international oil prices sharply declined, and naphtha followed suit with weakness but strong resilience, while PX passively compensated for the decline. From March to May, PTA underwent centralized maintenance, resulting in a reduction in rigid procurement of PX and a decline in the PX market.
The third stage is the third quarter, during which the PX market is fluctuating. At this stage, the PX market showed a trend of “first rising, then falling, and then fluctuating”, with the core being the resonance of wide fluctuations in cost, loosening of supply and demand margins, weak downstream demand, and shrinking profits.
The fourth stage enters the fourth quarter, and the PX market trend rises. During this stage, the rebound of crude oil and the strengthening of naphtha have strengthened cost support; In 2025, there will be no new production capacity for PX, and the centralized maintenance of domestic facilities in the fourth quarter will result in a decrease in supply; Starting from October, the centralized processing fees for the downstream PTA industry have increased, resulting in a month on month increase of about 15% in PX procurement volume, which supports the upward trend of the PX market.
What will the PX market trend be in 2026? The driving factors for the PX market in 2026 are as follows:
（1） Supply side: rhythm mismatch+maintenance peak, significant gap in the first half of the year
1. New production capacity is concentrated in the second half of the year, with very little supply elasticity in the first half of the year
In 2026, the global PX plan plans to increase production capacity by approximately 6.5 million tons, with a total of approximately 2.6 million tons from domestic companies such as Liaoning Aramco and Fujia Capacity Expansion, all of which will be put into operation in the second half of the year. There will be no new production capacity in the first half of the year, and the supply will continue to be tightly balanced.
2. Operating rate and inventory: high load, low inventory supports prices
The domestic PX operating rate remains at a high level of 80% -88%, with the load of existing facilities approaching the upper limit and limited supply increment. At the end of 2025, PX social inventory will be at a seasonally low level, and there is a strong expectation of destocking in the first half of 2026, making prices prone to rise but difficult to fall.
2、 Demand side: Polyester rigid demand+PTA production vacuum, differentiated support strength

1. The addition of polyester production capacity forms sustained demand
Domestic polyester plans to increase production capacity by 4 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4%, equivalent to an increase in PX demand of about 3.2 million tons. Production will be concentrated in the first three quarters, providing stable and essential support. The expected easing of US tariff policies and the recovery of demand in Southeast Asia are expected to maintain a weaving machine operating rate of 75% -80%, driving polyester inventory replenishment and indirectly supporting PX procurement.
PTA enters the vacuum period of production, and the repair of processing fees drives the demand for PX
In 2026, PTA will have no new production capacity and enter stock competition. Processing fees will be restored to over 300 yuan/ton, and PTA enterprises will increase their operating rates, leading to an increase in PX procurement volume. In the first half of the year, PTA maintenance increased, production capacity utilization remained low, and PX demand fluctuated periodically, but long-term demand remained unchanged.
3、 Cost side: crude oil fluctuations+naphtha linkage, PXN price difference repair
1. Crude oil prices are the core cost anchor
International crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical conflicts, OPEC+production cuts, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, directly driving the linkage between naphtha and PX prices.
2. Oil blending demand and raw material diversion
When the gasoline price difference in North America strengthens, the flow of aromatic hydrocarbons increases, the pressure on the PX supply side is relieved, and the price difference of PXN widens; On the contrary, PX supply increases and the price difference shrinks.
In summary, the overall PX market in 2026 shows a trend of “strong at the beginning, stable at the end, and fluctuating at a high level”. In the first half of the year, prices surged due to tight supply-demand balance and maintenance peaks. In the second half of the year, with the landing of new production capacity and demand resilience, a high-level oscillation of “tight balance+cost anchoring” was formed. The PXN price difference first expanded and then contracted, and the central level rose throughout the year.