In the past week (October 21-27), the domestic PA6 spot market has fluctuated and risen slightly, with mainstream production enterprises raising their prices by up to 400 yuan/ton, while the PA6 benchmark price remains at 15000 yuan/ton. In terms of technical indicators, the 5-day and 10 day moving averages have risen, while the 20 day moving averages have remained flat, showing a strong rebound signal. However, the direction of the moving averages has not been fully synchronized, and a clear unilateral upward trend has not been formed; The 60 day cycle price is in a high range on the cycle position, and the short-term upward space is limited.
The influencing factors include a cost reduction of 160 yuan/ton in the third week settlement price of Sinopec Caprolactam upstream, which has caused a negative impact on the raw material side. However, this adjustment has not yet been transmitted to PA6 finished products. The high raw material prices in the early stage still provide a certain cost support for slicing, and the processing profits of aggregation enterprises continue to be compressed. The pure benzene market fluctuated narrowly without significant fluctuations, which limited its ability to further pull or exert pressure on caprolactam.
On the supply and demand side, the overall operation of PA6 polymerization plants in China has remained at a moderate level, and some enterprises have flexibly adjusted their inventory levels according to their own needs. The supply of spot goods in the market is still acceptable; After a round of price increases in the early stage, factory inventory has been partially digested, and holders have a strong willingness to raise prices, reducing the phenomenon of low-priced shipments. On the demand side, there is a strong demand for follow-up and high price resistance. Downstream nylon spinning and modified injection molding continue to operate normally, with limited growth during the autumn and winter peak seasons. There is no significant increase in terminal orders, and downstream factories mostly purchase on demand. There is a lack of willingness to stock up on a large scale, and there is a high resistance to high priced goods transactions. There is room for negotiation on actual orders.
In the short term, PA6 is expected to maintain a volatile bullish pattern in the future market forecast. The cost support brought by the high raw material prices in the early stage is still present, and enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, with short-term upward momentum; However, the current price is at a high level in the 60 day cycle, and downstream acceptance of high priced raw materials is limited. Coupled with the subsequent transmission risk of the weekly settlement price of caprolactam, it is difficult for the market to continue to rise sharply, and we need to be alert to the risk of a pullback driven by cost decline.

At the beginning of the week, the price of potassium sulfate with 50% content was 3900 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the price of potassium sulfate with 50% content was 3800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.56% in price.
This week’s Mannheim potassium sulfate (processed) 52% powder: the average factory price is about 3850 yuan/ton (some low-end factories have dropped to 3700 yuan/ton). The average factory price of 50% powder is about 3750 yuan/ton (some low-end products have dropped to 3600 yuan/ton). The continuous decline in the price of potassium chloride raw materials has weakened the cost support for potassium sulfate, causing some manufacturers to offer discounts and lower the overall transaction center of the market.
Demand side: The autumn fertilizer cycle has ended, and downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have a low operating rate, only maintaining a small amount of essential replenishment, lacking large-scale centralized procurement, market trading is sluggish, and actual transactions are few. The overall supply of goods in the market is sufficient, and some traders are competing to sell goods in order to recoup funds at the end of the year. Low priced goods are impacting the market, exacerbating downward pressure on prices.
Prediction: The short-term market demand for potassium sulfate is weak, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

This week, nickel prices first rose and then fell. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 121566.67 yuan/ton, up 1.91% from the beginning of the week and down 0.65% year-on-year.
Macroscopically, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in October is about 83%, but the expectation of a rate hike in December remains strong. The US dollar index oscillates around 101.7, and long-term US bond yields remain high, putting continued pressure on colored valuations. Domestically, the limit of 550 billion yuan of local government bonds has been issued, but the transmission to nickel terminal consumption is not yet obvious. At the macro level, the qualitative assessment of nickel prices is that it does not constitute an additional bearish shock in the short term, but it cannot provide upward driving force, and the financial attribute side maintains a neutral bias state.
In terms of raw materials, Indonesia’s RKAB quota for 2026 has been revised to about 290 million tons, an increase of about 30 million tons from the initial setting. The HMA benchmark price has also been lowered, and the mining cost anchor continues to loosen. Although there is rainfall disturbance in the main production areas of the Philippines, mines have taken advantage of the good weather window to speed up shipments, resulting in high port arrivals and a slight decline in nickel ore prices. The core signal on the raw material side is clear: local supply disruptions are not sufficient to offset the overall easing brought about by Indonesia’s quota expansion, and cost support is still shifting downward.
On the supply side: The biggest variable on the supply side this week comes from multiple Chinese nickel companies discussing rumors of a joint production cut of about 30% by Indonesia’s HPAL plant, which once triggered concentrated short selling and price rebound. But the RKAB quota has substantially increased, and Indonesia’s smelting capacity is still increasing. The global surplus pattern has not changed due to the “negotiated production reduction”. As of October 21st, LME nickel inventory was 280900 tons, and the previous warehouse receipt was 91000 tons, with absolute levels still at historical highs. The suppression of rebound space by inventory continues to exist.
On the demand side, the production schedule of stainless steel 300 series in October continued to decline compared to the previous month, and the profits of steel mills were inverted. There is a strong willingness to lower the price of nickel iron, and procurement is only maintained for essential needs. In terms of new energy, ternary precursors are subject to lithium iron phosphate pressure, resulting in weak production and limited incremental purchases of nickel sulfate; In September, the production of ternary materials decreased by about 10.7% month on month, and the precursor decreased by about 7.8% month on month. Neither of the two main demand paths provides marginal increments, meaning that any rebound driven by supply side sentiment lacks substantial downstream support.
Influencing factors: The core contradiction of the current nickel price is not whether there is an excess, but to what extent and at what speed the expected reduction in production can correct the excess already included in the price. If the HPAL joint production reduction goes from “discussion” to “substantive implementation”, there is still room for short-term short covering; If the news is falsified or the reduction in production falls short of expectations, there is a risk of a rebound in the early stage. At the same time, the actual release pace of Indonesia’s RKAB quota will determine the speed of cost reduction at the mining end, and together they will constitute the main source of price fluctuations next week.

In summary, macroeconomic suppression has not been eliminated → mining costs continue to decline → supply side “expected production cuts” can only provide pulse like emotional support, unable to reverse the overall surplus → demand side stainless steel and new energy weaken synchronously, and the rebound lacks downstream absorption → high inventory constitutes a hard constraint above. This week’s price trend itself has confirmed this chain: rumors of production cuts in the first half of the week drove a rebound, but in the second half, it returned to weakness. Short term nickel prices are expected to experience short-term regional fluctuations.

Since October, the spot market for styrene butadiene rubber has been fluctuating and declining, with a price of 16175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the holiday, it was boosted by the strength of crude oil and butadiene, rising to 16833 yuan/ton. Subsequently, downstream resistance to high prices led to a slight decline in the center of gravity around 16133 yuan/ton. As of the 21st, the price has dropped by 3.01% compared to the previous month.
Geopolitical disturbances have pushed up crude oil prices, driving butadiene to operate at a high level. However, with the resumption of cracking units and an increase in imported goods, butadiene supply has gradually eased, resulting in a slight decline in prices. Since October, there has been a contraction in the supply of styrene units due to maintenance and load reduction, supported by low port inventory. However, downstream ABS, PS, and EPS have weak willingness to receive goods, and there is insufficient follow-up on demand, which has constrained the increase in styrene prices. As of October 21st, the price of butadiene was 13233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34% from 13550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of October 21st, the price of styrene was 11014 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.81% from 10610 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The domestic styrene butadiene plant has been operating at around 70% capacity, with minimal maintenance and no obvious destocking or accumulation, making it difficult for the supply side to form strong support.
After the holiday, the dividends of the peak season of Golden September have faded, and the demand for all steel tires is weak. The inventory of tire products is slow, and profits are under pressure. Many enterprises just need to purchase and avoid hoarding. The demand for non tire materials such as shoe materials and rubber hoses is flat and lacks increment. Insufficient support for styrene butadiene rubber.
Market forecast:
Technically speaking, from the spot moving average chart, the current spot price of styrene butadiene rubber has fallen below the short-term 5-day and 10 day moving averages, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum. The medium to long term moving average (20/30/60 days) is still upward, and the medium-term upward trend has not been broken, forming a support range. Short term indicators have turned around, indicating a need for a pullback to digest profit taking orders. Predict a weak consolidation of short-term fluctuations, supported by the medium to long-term moving average below; If the support is held, the market may stabilize and rebound again. If it effectively falls below the moving average, the downside space will expand.
Fundamentally speaking, in the short term, styrene butadiene rubber will fluctuate at a high level, with strong resistance above. Without centralized replenishment, it will be difficult to stand firm, and cost and rigid demand support will limit the potential for deep decline. In the medium to long term, as we enter the traditional off-season of November and December, demand will further weaken, and the price center is prone to decline but difficult to rise. If the support of crude oil collapses, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the fourth quarter will drop significantly.

Since October, the nitrile rubber market has mainly fluctuated and consolidated. As of October 21st, the price was 18625 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% from 17575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the high point during the cycle was 18975 yuan/ton. As of October 21st, the offer price for Lanhua Nitrile 3305E in East China is 17600-17800 yuan/ton; Nandi Nitrile 1052 mainstream package price ranges from 2020 to 20400 yuan/ton.
During the National Day holiday, the market saw light trading and stable prices; In mid month, due to the reluctance of traders to sell and the tight supply of some brands, prices surged, but downstream resistance to high prices made it difficult to increase trading volume, resulting in a market with price but no quantity; In the second half of the year, prices fell and the long short game intensified.
Since October, domestic butadiene has fluctuated weakly after opening high, while acrylonitrile has fluctuated slightly higher. After the National Day holiday, with the gradual release of cracking units and the recovery of port inventory, coupled with the obvious resistance of downstream profits to high prices, the price of butadiene fell under pressure. The domestic supply and demand of acrylonitrile are relatively stable, and the cost is supported by the tight international energy market. As of October 21st, the price of butadiene was 13283 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.97% from 13550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of October 21st, the price of acrylonitrile was 11033 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.32% from 10783 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The mainstream equipment in China is operating smoothly overall, with the industry operating at over 80% of capacity. The total volume is loose, and there is no significant pressure on manufacturers to accumulate inventory. Some brands have a shortage of circulating goods, resulting in a structural shortage. The arrival rhythm of goods from Japan, South Korea, and Russia at the port is stable, with no concentrated large-scale arrival impact. In the later stage, the 50000 tons/year plan of Zhenjiang Nandi will be shut down for maintenance, and the supply of nitrile rubber will slightly decrease in the later stage.
The demand shows structural differentiation. Automotive seals, rubber hoses, and oil seals are in high demand, and the demand for new energy vehicle accessories is stable. However, the increase in downstream product orders is limited, and companies tend to stock up in short cycles, which makes them resistant to high priced sources of goods; The sustained low demand for nitrile gloves has dragged down overall demand. The market has limited room for fluctuations.
Market forecast:
From the trend chart, the current spot price of nitrile rubber has fallen to around the 5-day and 10 day moving averages, and the short-term upward momentum has weakened; The 5/10/20 daily moving average still maintains a bullish position, and there is still support for the medium to long term trend. The upper pressure is on the 19000 line, and the lower support is based on 18500 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is a high probability of high volatility. If the moving average remains stable, it will remain strong. If it falls below the 20 day moving average, the trend may weaken.
Overall, it is expected that there will be a wide range of fluctuations in the short term. The expected maintenance of Nandi will bring temporary emotional support, but butadiene is weak and there is a lack of centralized replenishment downstream, making it difficult to continue rising; If there are no new maintenance or strong cost incentives, the price center of gravity may slightly approach the cost line.