Ethylene glycol fluctuated horizontally this week. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of July 11th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4405 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19% from the average price of 4396.67 yuan/ton on July 1st.
In terms of imported ethylene glycol, on July 11, 2025, the spot contract price of ethylene glycol at the port first strengthened and then weakened with the market, with a trading range of 4360-4410 yuan/ton. The intraday basis weakened slightly, with a strong early morning and a weak afternoon. The intraday basis range for next week’s spot contract is+62 to+68. As of the closing, the contract basis quotation for next week will be+64 to+70, the contract basis quotation for July will be+65 to+70, and the contract basis quotation for August will be+65 to+68.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 3880-4100 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of July 10th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 513 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 517 US dollars/ton.
Port inventory remained relatively low in July
From January to mid February, there was a significant accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory in the port, and from March to April, the port inventory fluctuated horizontally. From May to June 2025, there will be a significant decrease in the inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China. Currently, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port is relatively low. As of July 10th, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the East China main port was 480600 tons, a decrease of 61400 tons from the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the East China main port on July 3rd, which was 542000 tons; Compared to the total inventory of 700900 tons on April 28th, a decrease of 220300 tons; Compared to the total inventory of 671900 tons on March 31st, it decreased by 191300 tons.
This week’s fundamental overview
This week, domestic ethylene glycol spot prices were weak at first and then strong, with low-level buying being the main trend in the early stage. On Thursday, driven by the overall strong sentiment of the commodity market, prices rose, and on Friday afternoon, there was a slight correction. The focus of external cargo negotiations has slightly shifted upwards.
Supply and demand side: Currently, ethylene glycol is in a tight balance state, and the domestic production rate is relatively stable. Recently, imported goods have arrived at ports relatively less, and port inventories are at a low level. However, the feedback effect of the downstream industrial chain still exists. Currently, the production rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to below 60%, and the loading load has dropped to about 60%. The average polyester production and sales during the week are around 50-60%, and inventory pressure is high.
Cost side: Recently, coal prices have stopped falling and rebounded, with a significant upward trend, providing some support for the cost of coal to ethylene glycol production.
Future expectations
The pricing of the ethylene glycol market has now returned to fundamental considerations. Due to the decrease in downstream operating rates, the demand for ethylene glycol is relatively weak. Although the current port inventory is low, there is an expected concentration of foreign ships arriving at the port in July. Starting from the latter half of the year, there will be a significant increase in the arrival of ethylene glycol from foreign ships, mostly concentrated in the Taicang area. It is expected that the short-term price center of ethylene glycol will be weak.
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