Since October, the nitrile rubber market has mainly fluctuated and consolidated. As of October 21st, the price was 18625 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% from 17575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the high point during the cycle was 18975 yuan/ton. As of October 21st, the offer price for Lanhua Nitrile 3305E in East China is 17600-17800 yuan/ton; Nandi Nitrile 1052 mainstream package price ranges from 2020 to 20400 yuan/ton.
During the National Day holiday, the market saw light trading and stable prices; In mid month, due to the reluctance of traders to sell and the tight supply of some brands, prices surged, but downstream resistance to high prices made it difficult to increase trading volume, resulting in a market with price but no quantity; In the second half of the year, prices fell and the long short game intensified.
Since October, domestic butadiene has fluctuated weakly after opening high, while acrylonitrile has fluctuated slightly higher. After the National Day holiday, with the gradual release of cracking units and the recovery of port inventory, coupled with the obvious resistance of downstream profits to high prices, the price of butadiene fell under pressure. The domestic supply and demand of acrylonitrile are relatively stable, and the cost is supported by the tight international energy market. As of October 21st, the price of butadiene was 13283 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.97% from 13550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of October 21st, the price of acrylonitrile was 11033 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.32% from 10783 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The mainstream equipment in China is operating smoothly overall, with the industry operating at over 80% of capacity. The total volume is loose, and there is no significant pressure on manufacturers to accumulate inventory. Some brands have a shortage of circulating goods, resulting in a structural shortage. The arrival rhythm of goods from Japan, South Korea, and Russia at the port is stable, with no concentrated large-scale arrival impact. In the later stage, the 50000 tons/year plan of Zhenjiang Nandi will be shut down for maintenance, and the supply of nitrile rubber will slightly decrease in the later stage.
The demand shows structural differentiation. Automotive seals, rubber hoses, and oil seals are in high demand, and the demand for new energy vehicle accessories is stable. However, the increase in downstream product orders is limited, and companies tend to stock up in short cycles, which makes them resistant to high priced sources of goods; The sustained low demand for nitrile gloves has dragged down overall demand. The market has limited room for fluctuations.
Market forecast:
From the trend chart, the current spot price of nitrile rubber has fallen to around the 5-day and 10 day moving averages, and the short-term upward momentum has weakened; The 5/10/20 daily moving average still maintains a bullish position, and there is still support for the medium to long term trend. The upper pressure is on the 19000 line, and the lower support is based on 18500 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is a high probability of high volatility. If the moving average remains stable, it will remain strong. If it falls below the 20 day moving average, the trend may weaken.
Overall, it is expected that there will be a wide range of fluctuations in the short term. The expected maintenance of Nandi will bring temporary emotional support, but butadiene is weak and there is a lack of centralized replenishment downstream, making it difficult to continue rising; If there are no new maintenance or strong cost incentives, the price center of gravity may slightly approach the cost line.
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