1、 Price data
According to the latest monitoring data of the business association, the average factory price of domestic refined naphtha as of March 31 was 5260.00 yuan / ton, down 16.20% from 6276.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of refined naphtha continued to fall sharply this month.
| PVA FIBER |
On March 30, the naphtha commodity index was 66.15, down 1.65 points from yesterday, down 35.54% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 56.61% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: the price of ground refined naphtha continued to fall sharply this month. At present, the mainstream price of hydrogenated naphtha is about 4700 yuan / ton.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 47.09 USD / barrel at the beginning of the month, 20.09 USD / barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 57.34%; Brent crude oil is 51.73 USD / barrel at the beginning of the month, 26.42 USD / barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 48.93%. At the OPEC + meeting, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that their production has increased substantially. Meanwhile, affected by the overseas epidemic, more and more countries have taken measures to restrict travel, forcing more refineries to gradually reduce production. Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream price of toluene in East China is about 3050 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of isomerized xylene in East China is about 3180 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of p-xylene is about 4300 yuan / ton.
3、 Future forecast
According to the energy analyst of business club, affected by the overseas epidemic situation, the naphtha market in Asia is operating at a low level. Recently, the refining supply has increased, but the demand is limited. At present, a small number of refineries sell large quantities of naphtha in advance. In April, the market supply and demand are not significantly good. It is expected that the price of naphtha in April will continue to decline, with the average price range of 4500-5200 yuan / ton.
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