Entering October, the domestic MIBK market continued its high volatility pattern after a surge in September, with the overall market initially stabilizing before a slight correction and rebounding again at the end of the year, with prices operating within the high range of the year. According to the price trend monitored by Shengyi Society, the market continued the sharp rise in September at the beginning of this month, with spot prices maintaining a high level around 13500 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, the downstream demand buying rhythm slowed down, and the market transaction follow-up was weak, resulting in a slight decline in prices. After reaching the stage low point in the later part of the month, the market rebounded with the support of tight supply, showing a wide range of fluctuations throughout the month, and forming a clear differentiation from the unilateral upward trend in August and September.
The supply side is the core factor supporting this month’s MIBK price base. The early market surge was mainly due to the maintenance of domestic main equipment, the decline in operating load, and the tightening of spot circulation. This tight supply pattern continued in early October. But as some maintenance facilities gradually resume production, the increase in market supply becomes apparent, and traders have more spot goods in their hands. Coupled with the high prices in the early stage, the willingness of factories to ship has increased, which has suppressed the market in the mid month stage. Overall, the industry’s operating rate in October has rebounded compared to September, but there has been no concentrated increase in volume. Spot inventory is generally at a moderate level and has not formed a significant inventory backlog, thus limiting the downward space for prices.
On the cost side, fluctuations in the raw material acetone market have provided cost support for MIBK, but the driving force has weakened. Acetone is the main raw material for MIBK, and the upward trend in acetone prices in September was an important driving force for MIBK’s sharp rise. However, in October, the acetone market was mixed with long and short positions, with mixed ups and downs. The lack of sustained upward momentum on the cost side made it difficult to drive MIBK to rise sharply again.
The weak performance on the demand side has become the main weakness restricting the upward trend of the market. MIBK is mainly used in the fields of coatings, rubber anti-aging agents, pharmaceutical extraction, etc. In October, the traditional downstream coating industry entered a seasonal off-season, with limited increase in terminal production. Downstream enterprises showed obvious resistance to high priced raw materials, insisting on immediate use and replenishment in small quantities, with few large-scale hoarding operations. The market trading atmosphere was cautious, and basic demand support was still acceptable, but lacked speculative buying orders, making it difficult to drive prices to continue rising.
In the future, the domestic MIBK market is likely to maintain a high level of volatility in the short term. The positive factors are that there is still uncertainty in the operation of some devices, and the probability of concentrated spot trading is not high. There is an expectation of stabilizing acetone on the cost side, which supports the bottom of the price; The downside is that downstream demand is difficult to improve significantly, high prices suppress procurement, and there is pressure from the continued release of new sources of goods in the later stage. It is expected that the mainstream price range of MIBK will fluctuate and consolidate in November, and the possibility of a significant increase or deep decrease is relatively small. The market trend will mainly follow the changes in raw material acetone and the order follow-up of downstream coatings and chemical additives industries. It is recommended that operators closely monitor the dynamics of equipment, raw material prices, and changes in terminal demand, and rationally control the pace of procurement and shipment.
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