On October 29th, the cobalt price was 214300 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 18.79% compared to the cobalt price of 263900 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October 2026, cobalt prices showed a weak pattern of unilateral accelerated decline and repeatedly falling below key integer levels. In October, cobalt prices experienced the largest monthly decline of 2026.
LME cobalt prices fall in October
According to the LME cobalt price trend chart, it can be seen that in October, the LME international cobalt price synchronously followed the decline of domestic spot prices, gradually declined after reaching a high at the beginning of the month, and the linkage between domestic and foreign markets weakened. LME cobalt futures closed down $1110 on October 28th, at $33510/ton, with a downward trend for the month. Far month contracts saw a slight increase, but speculative buying was weak.
Supply side: Centralized supply to the port with increased volume
The CIF China coefficient for cobalt intermediate products has dropped to a low of 12-14 US dollars per pound. The previously accumulated cobalt intermediate products flowed into the country in large quantities in October, and the goods in transit from the Democratic Republic of Congo were concentrated at the port, directly loosening the support for raw material costs; The continuous production of nickel cobalt hydroxide (MHP) in Indonesia has increased the marginal supply of cobalt, and MHP in Indonesia continues to increase in volume; The substitution rate of regenerated cobalt for native cobalt has risen to 34%, further intensifying competition on the raw material side. In October, the supply of cobalt in the market increased, and the shortage of supply in the cobalt market eased.
Demand side: Weak peak season
In the field of power batteries, the ternary route continues to be replaced by lithium iron phosphate, and the installed capacity of ternary batteries has declined year-on-year. In September, the proportion of domestic ternary battery installations has dropped to 14.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%. The substitution effect of lithium iron phosphate on ternary batteries continues to squeeze the basic demand for cobalt. The demand for mobile phones, laptops, and tablets is sluggish, and global smartphone shipments are under pressure in the third quarter. Orders for lithium cobalt oxide are weak, and transactions for cobalt salts and cobalt oxide are sluggish. As the substitution of lithium cobalt oxide by ternary materials accelerates, the production of ternary materials remained stable or even slightly decreased in October compared to the previous month.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Analysts believe that the cobalt market in October is currently experiencing a tug of war between short-term strong supply and weak demand, and medium – to long-term supply shortages. The “story” of medium – to long-term supply contraction has encountered the “reality” of short-term concentrated arrivals and demand collapse. The weak bottoming out of the cobalt market has not yet ended, and the pressure to replenish the metal market is still being released. The true signal of stabilization has not yet been released. Overall, the quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo has not reversed the trend of oversupply, and the supply elasticity of MHP and recycled cobalt in Indonesia is changing the supply structure of cobalt. In addition, the structural adjustment of demand in the cobalt market may lead to oversupply, which may become a future trend. In the future, cobalt prices may continue to decline and seek cost support. The short-term cobalt price of 200000 yuan/ton may form a bottom price support.
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