In October 2026, the domestic butadiene market first fell and then rose, with an overall upward trend. The market price increased from 13840 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 14300 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.32%.
In October 2026, the market showed a clear two-stage trend. In the first half of the year, the market was under pressure and fell back, with prices briefly declining. This was mainly due to the release of previous supply increments and cautious downstream buying at high prices. The trading atmosphere in the market was weak, and merchants mainly offered discounts for shipments; After mid month, the market bottomed out and rebounded, gradually opening up a rebound channel, and the price center continued to shift upwards. The core factors driving the rebound of the market are, firstly, temporary load reduction and maintenance of some production facilities, periodic tightening of spot circulation sources, and reluctance of traders to sell and push up prices; Secondly, the cost side of naphtha has a strong oscillation, which supports the bottom of butadiene; At the same time, downstream demand for essential purchases has been released after the price has fallen back to a suitable range, driving the improvement of spot transactions and boosting prices. However, there are always shortcomings on the demand side, with a lack of sustained replenishment power downstream and limited ability to bear high prices, which restricts the upward trend. Therefore, the upward pace in this round is relatively mild, and there has been no rapid rise, resulting in an overall volatile upward trend.
Cost aspect: The mainstream production route of butadiene in China is the by-product of cracking naphtha to produce ethylene, and the prices of crude oil and naphtha are the core variables that determine the bottom line of butadiene cost. This month, international crude oil fluctuated widely, with a strong overall focus, which was transmitted to the domestic market. The price of naphtha fluctuated synchronously with crude oil, and the fluctuation range was relatively controllable. The strengthening of the naphtha market has raised the comprehensive production costs of cracking units, providing sustained bottom support for the price of butadiene and compressing the downward space of the market. However, the rising pace of the raw material side is mild, and the upward driving force is limited, making it unable to dominate the butadiene market alone. The rebound in butadiene prices this month is mainly driven by changes in spot supply and demand, and the cost is more of a “bottoming out and preventing decline” function, rather than the core driving force behind this round of price increases. The cost pressure caused by fluctuations in raw materials is partially transmitted downstream during the rise in butadiene prices, but the transmission efficiency is limited, and the raw material cost pressure of downstream rubber and ABS enterprises increases synchronously. As of October 27th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States is $99.90 per barrel; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January contract is $115.81 per barrel.
Supply side:
In October, the overall production level of butadiene in China was relatively high, and mainstream refineries did not have large-scale centralized maintenance plans. The overall supply base of the industry was sufficient, which was a long-term factor that suppressed the sustained rise in the market. The supply rhythm exhibits a phased characteristic of alternating tightness and looseness: all devices operate stably in the first ten days, and the early maintenance devices resume production one after another. The market’s available supply of goods increases, and spot supply is loose, bringing downward pressure to the market; Starting from mid month, multiple cracking units have experienced a reduction in the circulation of goods in some areas due to equipment maintenance and planned load adjustments. The expectation of tight spot prices has also increased, becoming a key positive factor driving the market rebound. Refinery inventory changes synchronously with the market trend. In the first half of the year, when the market weakened, the pressure on refinery shipments increased, and they actively lowered prices to promote inventory clearance; After the mid month price recovery, the speed of inventory digestion in refineries accelerated, inventory pressure eased, and the willingness to raise prices significantly increased. There is obvious regional differentiation, with relatively abundant supply of goods in the main production areas and consumption distribution centers affected by the pace of goods, resulting in temporary tight supply of goods and widening regional price differences. Overall, there is no long-term expectation of significant reduction on the supply side, relying solely on scattered and short-term device adjustments to bring temporary market opportunities.
The listed price of butadiene for each sales company of Sinopec is 13900 yuan/ton as of October 28th, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to September 28th.
Demand side:
The downstream of butadiene is mainly concentrated in butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, ABS resin, and the terminal corresponds to the fields of tires, shoe materials, plastic products, etc. This month, the overall downstream maintains a rigid procurement mode, lacking sustained incremental benefits. The consumer dividend of the previous “Golden September and Silver October” gradually faded in early October, with orders in the tire terminal market falling short of expectations, the speed of finished product inventory reduction slowing down, and tire factories operating at a moderate level without concentrated load lifting actions; Rubber products and shoe material orders are flat, putting pressure on finished product sales. With the mid month price drop of butadiene, downstream enterprises have moderately replenished their inventory at low prices, driving a wave of temporary transaction recovery and supporting price rebound; But after the continuous rise in butadiene prices, downstream finished product costs increased, and the transmission of rubber and ABS products following the price increase was not smooth. The processing profits of enterprises continued to compress, and their resistance to high priced butadiene increased. They quickly stopped replenishing inventory and returned to the on-demand procurement mode. The on-site transactions are mainly small and medium-sized essential orders, with scarce large orders and unsustainable demand follow-up. Whenever prices rise, procurement quickly cools down, becoming the core negative factor limiting the price increase of butadiene.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the domestic butadiene market may continue to fluctuate within a certain range, with mixed long and short factors and insufficient one-sided trend driven market. On the supply side, most of the maintenance windows for mainstream refineries in China have ended, and the start-up of facilities is expected to remain high. The overall supply of goods is sufficient, and without a new centralized maintenance plan, it is difficult for the supply side to have sustained reduction benefits; There are only sporadic temporary negative disturbances, and the positive trend is short-term. On the demand side, it is difficult for downstream rubber and ABS terminal demand to show significant improvement, and the recovery of terminal consumption such as tires is weak. The problem of downstream finished product transmission still exists, and the ability to undertake high priced raw materials is weak. It is highly likely that the pace of demand driven procurement will continue, and the expectation of large-scale centralized replenishment is low. At the cost level, there is still uncertainty in the fluctuations of crude oil and naphtha, and the bottom support of costs is still present, but the upward driving force is limited. Based on comprehensive judgment, if there are no sudden large-scale plant shutdowns, downstream centralized replenishment and other strong stimulus benefits, the possibility of a sharp rise or fall in butadiene prices is relatively small, and the market will fluctuate within the supply and demand game range. Subsequent focus will be on tracking the maintenance status of refinery equipment, downstream rubber and ABS operating loads, and crude oil and naphtha price trends.
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