1、 Price trend
The domestic methanol market continued to decline. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the week was 1702 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market at the end of the week was 1612 yuan / ton, down 5.29% in the week, 20.27% month on month, 31.96% year-on-year.
2、 Market analysis
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
Product: methanol market continued to decline this week, and the delivery atmosphere was better. At the beginning of the week, Guanzhong area fell by 200 yuan / ton to 1400-1460 yuan / ton, the profit of production enterprises shrank seriously, the bottom reading operation of downstream and traders increased, and the on-site negotiation was active; Inner Mongolia and Northern Shaanxi area fell to 1350-1400 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange, the production enterprises strengthened their prices, and the seller’s advantages gradually showed; the traditional downstream of Xinjiang continued to be depressed, the demand side was insufficient, and the supply in Xinjiang continued to be weak 800 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange to Ningxia, 1350 yuan / ton tax inclusive from the sources outside Xinjiang. At present, the production and sales of regional production enterprises are basically balanced this week, and the inventory is kept within the controllable range. In terms of supply, Xianyang’s main factory will store the maintenance plan next week, which will boost the market.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market fell in a narrow range. The overall operation of the market started smoothly, the upstream formaldehyde market continued to explore, the production cost of formaldehyde enterprises followed the reduction, and the theoretical profit was acceptable, but the demand of the downstream market was limited, which led to the difficulty of formaldehyde enterprises’ shipment. Under this pressure, some enterprises reduced their profits and shipped at low prices.
Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is light this week. After the price quoted by mainstream manufacturers rose, it fell back, and the overall market atmosphere was bearish. Then the price quoted by Henan manufacturers followed the correction. Although the market did not form an overall decline, the transaction was very light under the market bearish sentiment. Although the northwest supplier increased slightly last week, the customer said that the real price was still stable, and the low-end goods source successively hit North China. The northwest supplier’s recent transaction was smooth, and the inventory dropped significantly. However, the inventory of manufacturers in Shandong and Henan is still high, and the overall negative situation of acetic acid market is difficult to ease.
| PVA FIBER |
Dimethyl ether: this week, the domestic price of dimethyl ether continued to be low as a whole, and some regional prices rebounded slightly. International negative factors continue to spread, leading to the decline of crude oil. The price fluctuation has a close relationship with the upstream raw material methanol and terminal liquefied gas of DME, whether from the linkage of commodities or the relevance of downstream products. Under its influence, the momentum of the rise of methyl ether on Tuesday was insufficient and the price was mainly low. However, after a period of wait-and-see, the inventory of terminal gas stations is generally low, and there is a certain demand for replenishment. At the beginning of April, xinlianxin, a leading enterprise of dimethyl ether in Henan Province, planned two sets of units to be overhauled in turn, and the impact is expected to last about 60 days. The decline of its output has an impact on the market, and the market supporting behavior of enterprises has led to a slight rebound in the price of DME.
3、 Future forecast
Business club’s view: on the positive side, the domestic methanol price continues to decline, some of which has fallen near the cost line, and some of the factories have lost money; most of the factories in the main production area have little inventory pressure, and the purchase of purchased olefins is relatively considerable. On the negative side, overseas public security incidents triggered market concerns. The trend of international crude oil, finance and stock market was weak, and market participants were worried about it. The port demand was limited, and the arrival of inventory was stable, but the unloading speed was slow due to the tight storage capacity. After Iran’s gas limit was eased, methanol production increased, and it is expected to arrive in China in late March. The world financial environment has affected the domestic economic environment, and the mentality of methanol participants has been affected. Although the price has fallen to a historical low, there is little intention to copy and speculate. At present, the financial environment and international oil price have become the main logic affecting the bulk commodities, and the product fundamentals have little impact. Methanol analysts of the business club predict that the methanol rate will continue to decline next week.
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