1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business society (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), the mainstream average price of PVC in China on February 24 was 8825 yuan / ton, up 20.07% from 7350 yuan / ton last Wednesday (17th), 23% for the whole month, and 33.97% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
The PVC market rose in February, with a strong rise after the festival, up about 23% in the whole month. Before the Spring Festival, the PVC market rose, but on the eve of the holiday, most of the downstream companies stopped work for holidays, and the demand decreased. The PVC manufacturers started work more stably, and the market supply was sufficient, so the increase was small. After the festival, crude oil led the energy and chemical industry to advance rapidly. PVC was not outdone and actively adjusted its price. In the first week after the festival, it rose by 3.74%. Some enterprises closed their offer and stopped reporting to wait and see the market. This week, the PVC futures station was above 8600 yuan / ton, driving the spot market to rise in a large area. The enterprises that stopped reporting in the early stage recovered one after another, and the high prices came out frequently. Now the mainstream regional quotation (calcium carbide SG5) has risen to 8600-8950 yuan / ton, and the price of type 8 has risen to 9000 yuan / ton. Just a few days after the festival, the enterprises increased more than 1000 yuan, and the price support sentiment is still strong. As of the 24th, the mainstream average price of PVC rose 20.07% in 7 days. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the industry actively entered the market and the market was positive.
At present, the downstream enterprises are reworking one after another. The downstream enterprises start work earlier than in previous years. The demand side support is gradually strengthened. After the festival, they just need to replenish, and the demand is increasing. At the same time, due to the tight supply of international goods due to force majeure, the export of PVC is warmer, and the rising price of raw material calcium carbide and other favorable factors, the trend of PVC may be strong and upward.
In terms of spot, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 8600-8950 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is around 8600-8900 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hebei is 8850-8950 yuan / ton, the range of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 8730-8850 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 8750-8850 yuan / ton, and the main stream price of PVC common calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 8820-8950 yuan / ton.
Futures, after the festival before the market, prices rose sharply, 22 limit, boost the spot market. On the 23rd, the main PVC futures contract 2105 opened at 8650 yuan / ton and closed at 8610 yuan / ton. The settlement price of the previous day was 8450 yuan / ton, up 1.89%. The trading range was 8480-8905 yuan / ton, with 660785 transactions and 322112 positions.
Regional variety: February 24, 2007
Changzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8750-8850 yuan / ton
Guangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8820-8950 yuan / ton
Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 8850-8950 yuan / ton
Hangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8730-8850 yuan / ton
Upstream crude oil: on February 23, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States dropped slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $61.67/barrel, down US $0.03. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, the settlement price of the main contract was $64.48/barrel, or $0.12.
Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market overall upward trend. The price of ethylene in Asia rose. By the 23rd, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 978-984 US dollars / ton, up 90 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 953-959 US dollars / ton, up 90 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe rose slightly. By the 23rd, FD northwest Europe quoted 1182-1193 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted 1174-1183 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States soared. By the 23rd, the quotation of FD US Gulf was 1057-1069 US dollars / ton, up 22 US dollars / ton. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia showed a rising trend. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the whole ethylene external market was active, and the market continued to rise, especially in the United States.
On February 24, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose. In late February, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market has recently risen, downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement, and the market demand exceeds supply. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in late February.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business news agency believe that the PVC market rose in February and returned after the festival. The rising trend was strong. The sharp rise in futures prices led to a large-scale rise in the spot market, with frequent high prices. In addition, the rising price of raw material calcium carbide, the cost support was strong. With the downstream rework in succession, after the festival just need replenishment, demand rise, and export warm and other positive factors, PVC is expected to be strong in the short term, still rising expectations, but the rise may be narrower than the previous period, mainly high consolidation.
| PVA |