1、 Price trend
According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on February 25 was 2933.33 yuan / ton, down 0.23% compared with the previous day, up 2.33% compared with last Thursday (18th), and down 8.05% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In the first week after the festival, the domestic LNG market rose. At the end of the holiday, the logistics recovered, the lower reaches returned to the market one after another, just needed to replenish, the effect of reducing the price of the liquid factory before the festival was acceptable, the stock pressure was not great, the liquid price rose actively, a few areas still reduced the price, the market rose more and fell less, and the trading atmosphere was good. Entering this week, the market ushered in an inflection point, liquid factory shipment pressure, the price began to fall, has been less than 3000 yuan / ton. Since February 20, PetroChina has reduced the price of feed gas for its direct supply liquid plants, increasing the price adjustment space of liquid plants. Meanwhile, the liquid plants such as Huanggang in Hubei Province have started up for sale, and the market supply is increasingly sufficient. However, due to insufficient follow-up of terminal demand, the situation of oversupply is revealed. In addition, with the recent rise of temperature, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas has declined steadily. However, the current price is low, so it is not easy to adjust Deep down, mostly to 50-150 yuan / ton fluctuation consolidation, the future is difficult to say optimistic.
According to data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on February 25 was 2933.33 yuan / ton, up 2.33% from last Thursday (18th) and down 8.05% from the same period last year. On the 25th, the price in Inner Mongolia was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, with a daily drop of 30-100 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi, 2930-3550 yuan / ton, with a daily drop of 50-100 yuan / ton; in Shanxi, 3000-3250 yuan / ton, with a daily drop of 100 yuan / ton; in Ningxia, 2950-3000 yuan / ton, with a temporary price stability; in Henan, 3400-3500 yuan / ton, with a daily rise of 100 yuan / ton; in Hebei, 3250-3300 yuan / ton, with a daily drop of 50-150 yuan / ton.
Date of quotation (yuan / ton)
Inner Mongolia: LNG 2800-3100 February 25
Shaanxi LNG 2930-3550 February 25
Shanxi LNG 3000-3250 February 25
Ningxia LNG 2950-3000 February 25
Hebei LNG 3250-3300 February 25
Henan LNG 3400-3500 February 25
Downstream products are mixed:
In recent years, the domestic methanol market has picked up slightly. Recently, the domestic methanol market rebounded slowly. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of February 25, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2282 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 2.25% and a year-on-year increase of 13.45%. After the festival, the downstream enterprises replenish goods appropriately, the logistics is restored, and the freight is reduced. Domestic methanol market recovered slowly. In the future, traders’ willingness to hold goods is not strong, they have to ship goods at high prices one after another, market buying remains just in demand, and transaction is weak. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.
Liquid ammonia. On February 24, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose slightly. Before and after the Spring Festival, the liquid ammonia market has been tepid, but since this week, the market has risen. According to the monitoring of the business community, the liquid ammonia market has risen by 1.52% since this week. Agricultural demand started in succession, the willingness of terminal procurement gradually increased, and the agricultural procurement in mainstream areas was cautious; the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer increased, and some downstream products were still cautious, most of them went with the market. The price of liquid ammonia is expected to rise in the near future.
Urea, Shandong urea mainstream factory price rise. On February 24, the reference price of urea was 2190.00, which increased by 6.31% compared with February 1 (2060.00). In late February, the urea market in Shandong was mainly in a slight fluctuation. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is gradually increasing, the industrial demand is better, the urea supply is increasing, the international urea price is rising, and the domestic urea market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.
Dichloromethane, on the 23rd, the market price of methane chloride in Shandong continued to rise. The manufacturer’s offer was increased by 50 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory price of dichloromethane was between 3300-3550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory price of trichloromethane was about 2680-2850 yuan / ton, which is expected to remain high in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts of LNG from business news agency believe that: at present, the market supply is increasingly sufficient, but the demand follow-up is insufficient, and the situation of oversupply is revealed. Moreover, with the recent rise of temperature and the interweaving of long and short, the domestic LNG price has stopped rising and turned to falling. However, the current price is low, so it is not easy to fall deeply, and the narrow range adjustment is the main. It is difficult to be optimistic in the future.
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