According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PTA spot market in East China showed a slight upward trend this week (April 13-17), with an average market price of 6597 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, an increase of 4.12% compared to the beginning of the week.
The supply side has become the core supporting factor in the market. In April, the industry ushered in a centralized maintenance season, with tens of millions of tons of production capacity from companies such as Yisheng, Hengli, and INEOS undergoing centralized maintenance. Large scale facilities of leading enterprises have been shut down for maintenance, and the industry load has decreased from 85% to around 70% currently. Combined with the fact that there will be no new PTA production capacity in China by 2026, the industry’s supply will continue to shrink, and social inventory will shift from accumulated to depleted, providing bottom support for prices.
The progress of the US Iran negotiations will gradually weaken the geopolitical premium, and the cost of crude oil and PX may fluctuate and fall at high levels. As of April 16th, the settlement price of the May WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $94.69 per barrel, and the settlement price of the June Brent crude oil futures contract was $99.39 per barrel.
The demand side is in the traditional off-season for textiles, with insufficient terminal foreign trade orders. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is only 60-70%. Although the polyester sector maintains an 80% operating rate, the inventory of finished products has accumulated. Enterprises mainly purchase PTA for essential needs, and the transmission of high priced raw materials downstream is hindered, dragging down the market on the demand side.
Business analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic PTA supply is expected to maintain a contraction, and there will be little change in the downstream polyester end. Most of the purchases are for essential needs, and the degree of destocking of social inventory will expand. In addition, there are many uncertain factors in the Middle East situation, and the supply of raw materials is still tight, with cost support still present.
| http://www.pva-china.net |