According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of lithium carbonate has continued to fluctuate recently. As of April 8th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 156000 yuan/ton, up 1.3% month on month and 117% year-on-year. The core trend is jointly dominated by supply side games, demand side resilience, and macro emotions.
Supply side: “Double Disturbance” Game, Policy and Supply Uncertainty Dominate
The supply side is the core “trigger” of this round of price fluctuations, with two major disruptive factors continuing to ferment, causing the market to oscillate between “relaxing expectations” and “long-term tightening”.
Zimbabwe ban: undecided, repeatedly disturbed
On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe announced an indefinite suspension of lithium raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, which will be fully implemented on March 3. The core goal is to promote local value-added processing of minerals and emulate the Indonesian nickel ore model. At the end of March, there were rumors that Chinese funded enterprises such as China National Mining Corporation were granted export quotas, leading to a sharp drop in prices; However, Zhongkuang Resources responded that there was only communication and no clear timeline. On March 31st, the eighth cabinet meeting reiterated the maintenance of the ban with no signs of relaxation. On April 2nd, it was reported online that the latest document from Zimbabwe shows that companies must build lithium sulfate factories that meet government standards, pass inspections, and have production capacity before January 1, 2027; After January 1, 2027, only deep processed products such as lithium sulfate are allowed to be exported, and the export of lithium concentrate is completely prohibited.
Australian fuel crisis: marginal disturbance amplified
Affected by the situation in the Middle East, diesel supply is tight in some mines in Australia. The annual consumption of diesel in Australian mining is about 9.6 billion liters, and lithium mines are not a priority supply target. Although it is clarified that diesel is mainly used for transportation and has not directly affected production, Australia accounts for about 30% of global lithium supply, and the current supply elasticity is declining. Any marginal disturbance is easily amplified as a “supply interruption risk”, exacerbating market anxiety.
Other supply disturbances: The uncertainty of resuming production at mines such as Ningde Jianxiawo continues, coupled with the unclear pace of resuming production at major domestic mines, resulting in insufficient overall supply side elasticity and further amplifying price fluctuations.
Demand side: Energy storage becomes the core increment, providing support for automobile recovery
The demand side is the high priced “ballast stone”, driven by both energy storage and new energy vehicles, with demand resilience exceeding expectations.
Energy storage: the largest growth engine, accounting for over 40% of production scheduling
In March 2026, the total production capacity of the domestic lithium battery market was about 219 GWh, a month on month increase of 16.5%. Among them, the proportion of energy storage battery cell production increased to 40.6%, a significant increase from the beginning of the year, and has become a core demand source on par with power batteries. The price of energy storage systems has stabilized and rebounded, with 314Ah energy storage cells rising from 0.31 yuan/Wh to 0.36 yuan/Wh, and the bid price of energy storage systems rising from 0.5 yuan/Wh to 0.8 yuan/Wh. The price recovery combined with increased demand has accelerated the realization of the prosperity.
New energy vehicles: mild recovery, resilient loading capacity
In March, the estimated wholesale volume of new energy vehicles for passenger car manufacturers nationwide was 1.12 million, which remained the same year-on-year but increased month on month. Coupled with the continuous increase in single vehicle charging capacity, the battery loading volume did not significantly shrink. Tesla’s Shanghai factory delivered over 85600 vehicles in March, a month on month increase of 46%. Nearly 60% of global deliveries in the first quarter came from the Shanghai factory, highlighting strong demand in the Chinese market.
Supply and demand gap support: Morgan Stanley predicts a lithium shortage of 80000 tons in 2026, while UBS predicts a shortage of 22000 tons. The supply and demand gap provides fundamental support for high prices.
Analysis of Future Trends from the Technical Perspective of Business Society’s Spot Connect
As can be seen from the graph, the current daily moving average is above the 10 day moving average, and the 10 day moving average is above the 20 day moving average, indicating an upward trend.
Although the current price is at a mid to low level on the 10th, it is expected to remain at a high level in the long run, with limited upward potential.
Overall, the demand for lithium carbonate is strong, and there is upward momentum in the price curve. However, there are frequent news disturbances, great instability in the supply side, and the price is at a high level, with limited upward space. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.
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