In the second half of May, the industrial grade dimethyl carbonate market continued its weak downward trend. As of May 28th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.42% during the period.
fundamental analysis
On the cost side, both methanol and epichlorohydrin have seen slight increases, but the price of dimethyl carbonate has unilaterally declined. The impact of cost fluctuations on dimethyl carbonate has weakened, and dimethyl carbonate is passively squeezing profits in exchange for shipments.
Supply side: The price decline is accompanied by a decrease of about 53% in operating rate, some equipment maintenance, and a certain contraction in the supply side. However, inventory pressure has not yet eased, and the benefits of supply contraction are completely offset by weak demand. Inventory pressure remains the main contradiction.
On the demand side, the overall downstream demand is weak, and the support for prices is insufficient, which is the core driving factor for the sustained weakness of the market. Downstream procurement willingness for electrolytes, PCs, and other products is sluggish, with a focus on essential needs and insufficient willingness to replenish inventory.
Market forecast:
The current price is approaching the cost line, coupled with supply contraction caused by some equipment maintenance, and the space for further significant decline is limited; However, the signal of weak demand and negative widening of the mean difference has not changed, making it difficult for prices to form a trend rebound. It is expected that dimethyl carbonate will fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and a bottoming signal is beginning to emerge.
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