From July 1st to 7th, the domestic BDO price remained at 7716 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 4.54% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.67%. Both the supply and demand sides are showing an incremental trend, and industry players are cautious in their wait-and-see attitude. Trading of essential contract orders and light spot negotiations are underway. The supply and demand negotiation game continues, and the domestic BDO market fluctuates narrowly.
On the supply side, the supply of goods has increased. The supply side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
On the cost side, in terms of calcium carbide, the tight power supply has intensified and the supply has contracted; The concentration of downstream maintenance has weakened, and market demand has recovered to some extent; The market shows a clear shortage of supply, with a rapid increase in calcium carbide prices and inventory consumption. In terms of methanol, the price of methanol has significantly decreased. The raw material calcium carbide market is on the rise, while the methanol market is plummeting, and the impact of BDO cost is mixed.
On the demand side and downstream side, the average performance of terminal demand has led to pressure on supply and demand in multiple downstream industries. The mentality of shipping has driven actual orders to negotiate discounts, dragging down most downstream markets and making it difficult to accept high prices of raw materials. Contract orders continue to follow up, and spot negotiations are sluggish. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future forecast, the raw material calcium carbide will operate strongly, methanol will fluctuate at a low level, and BDO cost pressure will still exist; The downstream PTMEG, PBT, and PU pulp industries have seen an increase in production and demand. Overall, BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market may experience a narrow adjustment.
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