1、 Price trend
According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend this week. On February 9, the price of mixed xylene was 4670 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (February 21), the price was 5120 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan / ton or 9.64% compared with that before the festival.
2、 Analysis and comment
From February 10 to 21, Sinopec’s mixed xylene increased by 300-500 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, affected by crude oil and cold weather in the United States, energy and chemical products rose. The domestic xylene market was boosted by favorable conditions, and the price rose strongly. Asian PX prices rose due to unscheduled shutdown of some devices and reduced supply. However, there is little change in domestic downstream devices, and the demand follow-up is weak, which limits the growth of xylene. In terms of external market, as of February 19, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 697 US dollars / ton, up 56 US dollars / ton or 8.74% on February 12, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 718 US dollars / ton, up 58 US dollars / ton or 8.79% on February 12.
In terms of crude oil, during the Spring Festival, affected by the extremely cold weather in the United States, the operating rate of refineries declined, the inventory of refined oil decreased significantly, and the demand for heating oil increased, which was favorable for oil prices. On February 12, Brent rose $2.125/barrel, or 3.47%; WTI rose $2.39/barrel, or 4.11%.
Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price showed an upward trend this week, the average price at the weekend was 5700 yuan / ton, up 7.55% compared with that before the festival, down 9.52% year on year. The operating rate of PX in China is about 60%, and that of p-xylene unit in Asia is about 60%. During the Spring Festival, the earthquake in Japan, Vietnam a set of device shutdown, PX production was affected. In the short term, the domestic PX market continued to go to the warehouse. By the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia was 762-764 USD / T, FOB Korea and 780-782 USD / T CFR China.
In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China rose slightly. On February 21, the price was 4119 yuan / ton, up 2.15% compared with that before the festival and down 8.14% compared with that in the same period last year. Domestic PTA started at 87.06%. During the Spring Festival, PTA Yisheng Hainan’s 2 million ton large plant had problems and is expected to be difficult to restart in February. Other PTA plants are in normal operation, and it is expected that PTA supply pressure will remain the same.
In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China was 5500 yuan / ton on Sunday, up 10% compared with that before the festival. The cost of o-benzene and the external quotation rose; the domestic supply of o-benzene was sufficient; the downstream market rose, the market of phthalic anhydride fluctuated, the plasticizer DOP market rose sharply, and the transaction of o-benzene increased.
3、 Future forecast
Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
Mixed xylene market ushered in a good start, crude oil support was strong, the bulk market atmosphere was warm, and the price rose generally. But demand limits gains. Overall, it is expected that the price of mixed xylene will continue to follow the “trend”. Continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of mixed xylene.
| PVA |