From August 3rd to 7th, the domestic aggregated MDI market saw a slight increase, with an average price of 17866 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On August 7th, the average price was 18066 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.12% during the week and a year-on-year increase of 14.35%. During the week, there were frequent reports of major factory maintenance, and under the expectation of tight supply, factory sources were tight and prices remained firm. Intermediaries saw a slight increase, market inquiries increased, and small orders were the main focus of transactions. Under the supply-demand game, the center of gravity for aggregated MDI transactions shifted slightly upward.
Supply side: The MDI plant with a production capacity of 80000 tons per year in Tosa, Japan, will be shut down for maintenance at the end of July, with a duration of approximately one month. The 200000 ton/year MDI plant in Tosa, Japan is scheduled to start shutdown and maintenance in early September, with a duration of about 45 days. The 1.1 million tons/year MDI plant in Wanhua Yantai Industrial Park will be shut down for maintenance starting from August 10, 2026, with an estimated maintenance period of about 45 days.
Cost aspect: The price center of the pure benzene market has fallen, and the foundation continues to strengthen; With the expected increase in the resumption of cross-strait navigation, the tight situation of crude oil supply is expected to gradually ease, and crude oil prices are expected to decline. The cost support for pure benzene has weakened, and recently, domestic early shutdown and maintenance facilities have gradually returned, which is expected to gradually ease the tight supply situation and further promote the decline of pure benzene prices.
Demand side: Downstream demand inquiries are generally average, with small orders being the main focus after price increases, resulting in insufficient demand support.
Future forecast: There is an expectation of tight supply in the aggregated MDI market, and factories’ willingness to raise prices is not reduced. However, the demand side support is weak, and it is expected that the resistance to pushing up the aggregated MDI market will increase in the short term. We will closely monitor market supply and demand as well as changes in the news side.
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