1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 13, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5520 yuan / ton, which was 0.36% lower than that of the same period last month and 4.15% higher than that of the same period last year. The domestic ethanol market continued to rise, and the market in some regions was strong.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
2、 Market analysis
Product: stable operation of domestic alcohol market. Henan’s market is stable with stable price; Northeast’s market is weak with stable price; Shandong’s short-term logistics has little impact on the price; East China’s current supply is small with high market price supported by the supply. The downstream demand in Guangxi continues to slow down, the enterprise quotation is stable, a small number of customers just need to maintain procurement; the market price in Guangdong before the Spring Festival is still dominated by high price consolidation; the enterprise quotation in Anhui is still relatively stable, the overall market performance is light, and the enterprises in other regions have little change.
Industry chain: corn: the price of corn has been slightly adjusted during the stabilization. Before and after the lunar new year, the grain sales of grass-roots growers will be finished, and the marketable time of the market will be tightened again, so it is difficult for the spot mainstream market to fluctuate substantially. The period of grain sales before the festival is shortened, farmers are faced with the demand of cash realization and loan repayment before the festival, and the grass-roots grain sales in the main production area have increased. Some processing enterprises will end their periodic stock preparation, and the purchase and sale will turn to light. The spot price is still in the weak adjustment stage, but the signs of bottoming have been shown. We still believe that the probability of corn prices continuing to be weak in the short term is on the high side, and this prediction will not change for the time being. Due to the pulling effect of stock up demand before the Spring Festival, it is expected that corn prices will be stable around the first and middle of January.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate continued to be stable, the raw material acetic acid rose and then stabilized, and the cost of ethyl acetate was dispersed. The substantial demand for ethyl acetate in the downstream is weak, but the falling price does not attract the downstream purchase. The market is passive and the transaction is light and stalemate. Some ethyl acetate manufacturers stop during the Spring Festival, and the overall social inventory growth is slow. It is expected that the market of ethyl acetate will be stable next week.
3、 Future forecast
Business alcohol analysts expect that the short-term domestic ethanol market finishing operation. Large factories in Northeast China have low inventory and stable shipment; however, small factories have high inventory, positive shipment mentality and weak market price due to the limitation of transportation; East China’s arrival in Hong Kong in January is not large, production enterprises start less, market supply is limited, and downstream demand is limited, so it is expected that the short-term market will remain in order; Henan Province’s production enterprises will be loaded due to the reduction of liquor and chemical industry Under normal operation, short-term market weakness is expected to be consolidated. At present, the production of existing devices in Guangxi is stable, but the Spring Festival is approaching, and the downstream rigid demand is slightly insufficient. Some enterprises have low inventory price before the festival, and it is expected that the short-term market will be weak and stable. At present, the production enterprises in Guangdong Province have less startup of devices, the downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, and the supply side is favorable for the market price, and the market price is expected to be high. Hubei has enterprise parking plan, and the market is expected to be high The price is high and stable; the downstream demand in Anhui and Sichuan is close to the end, the inventory of enterprises is not high, and the market price is expected to be stable.
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