1、 Price trend
According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, as of January 13, the market of propylene oxide fell, with an average price of 9650 yuan / ton, down 2.03% compared with last Friday (January 10), and 6.91% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. On the 13th, the main quotation of propylene oxide in China was 9600-9750 yuan / ton. On January 13, the propylene oxide commodity index was 60.06, down 1.25 points from December 12, down 40.64% from 101.18 (2011-10-26), and up 44.03% from 41.70, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: the market of propylene oxide fell on the 13th. Downstream demand weakened, high-end shipments were blocked, main factories lowered their prices, and actively shipped. Downstream polyether users’ enthusiasm for bargain hunting and replenishment slightly increased, and the inventory of propylene oxide manufacturers was low, and the transaction was stable. On the 13th, the cash delivery price in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 9750 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 9750-9850 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is around 9450-9600 yuan / ton, and that in South China is around 9600-9700 yuan / ton.
Industrial chain: on January 13, the market price of the upstream propylene in Shandong still rose. Influenced by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. On January 5 and 6, it was generally stable, on January 7 and 8, it was stable on January 9, it was continuously increased on October 10 and 11, and it was stable on the whole line on December 12. Today, it rose again by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to about 7000-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7200 yuan / ton. The lower soft foam polyether market fell on the 13th, with limited new orders. Hard foam polyether market moves down in a narrow range, with a small number of new orders mainly negotiated.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on January 13, 2020, among which the top three commodities are liquid ammonia (3.44%), ethylene glycol (3.06%) and ethylene (2.40%). There are 8 kinds of commodities in the decline on a ring basis. The products with the first 3 drops are chloroform (-4.76%), hydrogen peroxide (-2.56%) and propylene oxide (-2.03%). The 13 day average rose or fell 0.03%.
3、 Future forecast:
According to the propylene oxide analyst of the business club, the price of raw propylene has been rising continuously in recent years, and the cost support has been greatly increased. With the end of the downstream pre Festival stock demand, it is expected that the propylene oxide market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the transactions in the upstream and downstream mainstream markets.
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