This week (April 21-24), the domestic PVC market showed a range consolidation trend, with prices fluctuating narrowly at the 5000 yuan/ton mark. The cost side provides bottom support, while the spring inspection on the supply side has led to a decline in production. However, the weak real estate and weak exports on the demand side, coupled with high social inventory, have been suppressed by multiple factors; The supply-demand game is intensifying, and the market is showing a volatile pattern.
1、 Price trend: PVC spot “low-priced replenishment, high price wait-and-see” transactions are average
This week, the PVC futures market mainly fluctuated within a certain range, while the spot market followed the trend of futures. The price did not show a significant breakthrough. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC carbide SG-5 method in East China fell slightly by 0.32% this week, with the mainstream price ranging from 4950-5050 yuan/ton. The regional price difference narrowed, and rigid demand dominated transactions, with small orders being the main focus. The market has a prominent mentality of “low price replenishment and high price wait-and-see”.
2、 Core driving factors: cost floor, supply contraction, weak demand, high inventory
Supply side: Spring inspection centralized landing industry operating rate drops
This week, the industry’s maintenance efforts have increased, and the operating rate has significantly decreased. Data shows that the industry’s operating rate has dropped to below 80%, and overall supply pressure has slightly eased.
In terms of raw materials, the price of calcium carbide is running at a low level, and the mainstream quotation in Northwest China has fallen by 2.6% this week. The downward trend in battery prices this round has caused a certain drag on the spot price of PVC. At the same time, due to the high price of ethylene, the operating rate of ethylene based PVC remains low, further reducing some supply.
Demand side: Continued weakness in downstream, dragged down by weak exports
The weak demand is still the core factor restricting the rebound of PVC prices, and the overall downstream operating rate is low. The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week was only 50%, a decrease of nearly 10% compared to last week, and the industry maintained a low level of operation. Especially in industries related to real estate, the impact is significant. From January to March 2026, real estate investment and new construction area continued to decline year-on-year, with only slight recovery in completion data. The recovery of core product orders such as pipes and profiles was slow, and enterprises mainly focused on small orders for essential purchases;
In terms of exports: Starting from April 1st, PVC export tax rebates have been officially cancelled, resulting in increased export costs and weakened competitiveness. Export orders have weakened month on month, with a decline compared to the previous period. The dual suppression of internal and external demand makes it difficult for PVC to emerge from a positive market trend. Inventory side: Social inventory is slowly decreasing at a high level, and the turnover cycle is relatively long
In terms of inventory: Although PVC social inventory has slightly decreased compared to the previous week, it is still at a relatively high historical level, and the progress of inventory depletion is slow, which continues to suppress the price rebound. In the context of high inventory, traders have a strong willingness to ship, and price reductions and promotions are common, further limiting the room for spot price increases.
3、 Outlook for the future: Short term low volatility and mid-term improvement in supply and demand
In the short term, the PVC market will continue to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is difficult to form a unilateral trend under the interweaving of long and short factors. Supporting factors: continuous spring inspections and tightening of supply; Restrictive factors: high social inventory suppresses rebound, weak real estate demand is difficult to improve, and orders continue to weaken after the cancellation of export tax rebates. It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile range of 5000-5100 within the month. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the pace of supply and demand improvement: firstly, the implementation of spring inspections. If the scope of maintenance is expanded and the time is extended, supply contraction will support prices; The second is the process of downstream demand recovery.
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