Commodity index: on November 15, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 98.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.18% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 2.77% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)
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Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on November 1, the main quotation of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 16166.67 yuan / ton, and on November 15, the main quotation of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 16100 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 0.41%.
Industry chain: upstream: in November, the mainstream price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market continued to decline, with the price of 12500 yuan / ton on the first day, 10550 yuan / ton on the seventh day, 100 yuan / ton on the 14th day, 10450 yuan / ton, 500 yuan / ton in the first half of the month, down 4.5%; downstream: demand is still stable. Manufacturer: the factory in Henan main production area started normal this month, with stable supply of goods. Upstream costs continue to be reduced, and manufacturers’ procurement costs continue to be reduced.
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Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. From May, October and November to now, the manufacturer’s production is basically normal; the environmental protection inspection is strict, there are occasional stoppages, the output is not affected, and the market mainstream quotation is slightly down, with little impact.
Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, from November to now, the North has gradually entered the warm season. The environmental protection inspection is strict, the manufacturer’s production is basically normal, the supply of goods is stable, and the downstream demand is still stable. As the upstream raw material, the price of acrylonitrile is adjusted to 4.5%, and the market price of polyacrylamide is slightly reduced, but the range is not large. If there is no unexpected situation in the future market, it should be mainly stable, but it will slightly decline in stability.
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