Upstream weakness, PA6 price weakness consolidation (11.11-11.18)

I. price trend:

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the domestic PA6 market continued to be weak in November, with some brand quotations falling. Up to now, the main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 is about 12933.33 yuan / ton, down 4.20% from the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

The domestic spot price of caprolactam upstream of PA6 was affected by the fall in the price of raw material pure benzene in October, which was sharply reduced by nearly 6.61% last month. At present, the port inventory of pure benzene remains at a low level, and the external market continues to rise and boost. It is difficult to find a low-cost source of goods in the downstream. The long-term cargo negotiation is 5250-5300 yuan / ton, and the short-term market is strong. Caprolactam US dollar market is weak, businesses offer lower, the downstream factory inquiry atmosphere is light, on-site actual single deal is not much. The focus of market negotiation tends to be low-end. Downstream buyers are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, the market trading atmosphere is light; upstream caprolactam continues to weaken, weakening the support for PA6. At present, the improvement of market demand for PA6 is limited, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not good, on-site trading is blocked, and the center of gravity of factory traders’ offer is lowered. However, due to the recent environmental protection policy, the operating rate of more than 40 urban areas such as the Yangtze River Delta has declined, and the polymerization plant has been shut down for rectification in the fourth quarter, so PA6 inventory will be consumed. PA6 offer trend is not good in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to cost and environmental protection policies.

3. Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in mid November, the domestic PA6 market continued to adjust the weak market, and the spot price fell. The trend of caprolactam in the upstream is not good, and the support for PA6 cost end is not good. The downstream replenishment operation is cautious, with rigid demand as the main factor. PA6 is expected to remain weak in the near future.