The price of pure benzene continued to decline by more than 6% (October 1-31, 2019)

I. price trend

 

The price of pure benzene continued to fall this month, according to the data in the business club’s large list. On September 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5500-5900 yuan / ton, and on October 31, the listing price of pure benzene was 5000-5600 yuan / ton, down 6.12% from the end of last month. From October 8-11, 16-17, there was a significant decline, down 2.82% and 2.72% respectively, with a slight shock at the end of the month.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

II. Analysis and comment

 

1. Crude oil: crude oil in this month ended lower in a wide range of shocks. WTI oil price fell 1.52% compared with last month, Brent oil price fell 2.1% compared with last month. Bad: trade risks, geopolitical situation, market concerns about slowing demand for crude oil. Good news: OPEC continues to insist on reducing production and making good progress in trade negotiations.

 

2. Products: at the beginning of this month, due to the national day, the production limit of environmental protection inspection was large, and the transportation during the National Day was limited, so pure benzene enterprises began to reduce the price for shipment. After the festival, the hydrogenated benzene plant was resumed and the supply increased; the coking industry continued to break through the new low, which had a great impact on the pure benzene.

 

3. Downstream: styrene, the downstream product with the largest demand for pure benzene, also fell continuously this month, down 11.92%. And the production limit before and after the National Day is large, after the festival, some downstream units are overhauled, and the pure benzene market is difficult to improve.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

III. future forecast

 

1. Crude oil: in the later stage, the international oil price will still fluctuate and consolidate. Pay attention to OPEC production reduction, negotiation progress and various risk issues in the later stage.

 

2. Domestic and foreign markets: at present, the price of pure benzene in China is still higher than that in the outside market, and the negotiation atmosphere is soft. It is expected that the supply of pure benzene will continue to increase in the later period.

 

In general, it is expected that pure benzene will continue to decline.

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