I. price trend
This week (10.28-11.1) the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 9781 yuan / ton, while the domestic butadiene price at the end of the week was 9123 yuan / ton, down 6.73% in the week, 21.12% month on month, 8.04% year-on-year.
II. Analysis of influencing factors
Products: this week (10.28-11.01), the domestic butadiene market continued to decline in weakness, the North spot supply is still abundant, the East China market atmosphere is affected by the low price news, and this week’s shipping has arrived in Hong Kong, the market supply continues to bear pressure, dragging the Northeast manufacturers’ export prices down. In the week, the periodic rigid demand in the lower reaches partially digested the inventory pressure of the northern manufacturers. At the same time, with the rapid and deep decline of butadiene, the production profit of the lower reaches industry increased, which attracted the attention of some businesses. However, the supply of goods in the Northeast continued to be released, and Sinopec’s supply price in November was also expected to be lowered. It was difficult for the short-term market fundamentals to have a significant positive support, and the market continued to be weak. As of Thursday (10.31), the delivery price of superior products in Shandong was 8450 yuan / ton, down 750 yuan / ton; the price in East China was 8900 yuan / ton, down 550 yuan / ton.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
Enterprises: Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China continued to be reduced by 600 yuan / ton to 9900 yuan / ton; the base price of Liaotong chemical butadiene auction on Monday was stable at 8710 yuan / ton, with the supply flowing; the base price on Thursday (10.31) was reduced to 7910 yuan / ton, with the transaction price of 7920-8012 yuan / ton, with the transaction volume of 520 tons; Fushun Petrochemical butadiene sold 840 tons abroad in the week, with the transaction price of 7900-7950 as of 30 days RMB / T; the 50000t / a butadiene unit of Maoming Petrochemical first line was restarted on 27th, and now it is in normal operation.
Industrial chain: in terms of downstream synthetic rubber, styrene butadiene rubber. This week, the factory price of domestic mainstream sales companies of styrene butadiene rubber is stable. The main billing price of dry rubber 1502 is 10400 yuan / ton, and that of styrene butadiene rubber 1712 is 9500 yuan / ton. This week, the operation rate of domestic styrene butadiene plant is around 5.40%; the main domestic styrene butadiene rubber plants are in normal operation, while the Lanzhou styrene butadiene plant is slightly reduced, and the overall operation is slightly reduced; in addition, Fuxiang chemical, Hangzhou Yibang and Tianjin Lugang styrene butadiene rubber plants are all in continuous shutdown.
The effect of SBR on butadiene: the price of Butadiene on the outside is lower, the price of butadiene and styrene in China is lower, and the cost is negative. In addition, the supply side of the other main styrene butadiene units remained normal with little change. At present, the construction of tires is OK, but the actual purchase is rigid, and the follow-up demand is hard to be optimistic. The price difference between Shanghai Rubber and styrene butadiene is still there, with some support on the news side.
Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: this week, the factory price of domestic mainstream sales company gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell slightly; as of the receipt of the manuscript, the main factory price of domestic gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell to around 10900 yuan / ton, with the main stream falling by 200 yuan / ton (only PetroChina South China sales company has not followed the decline for the time being). This week, the operation rate of domestic high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant was increased to around 5.80%, the load of the trans cis-1,4-polybutadiene plant was increased, the Lunde cis-1,4-polybutadiene plant was restarted successively, and other mainstream cis-1,4-polybutadiene plants kept normal operation.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
The influence of cis-1,4-polybutadiene on butadiene: the price of raw material butadiene in the outer market fell, the North was abundant in spot goods, and the cost was negative. While the Rande Shunding unit has been restarted and the cost pressure has been reduced, the rest of the production units may be able to increase the load and the supply may be more relaxed; although the downstream tire factory is expected to start slightly higher, but the heating season is coming. Due to the environmental protection requirements, some of the northern product factories may be subject to the risk of temporary shutdown, and the demand is uncertain; Shanghai Rubber continues to shake and collate, and the information guidance is as follows: Limit.
III. future forecast
On the positive side, the lower price nodes in the North just need to make up their positions; the decline slowed down after the market fell deeply; the short-term profits in the lower reaches increased. On the negative side, the arrival increment of cargo in November, the low price of cargo in the distant months of the outer market, the abundant market supply, and the difficulty of sustainable and good support for rigid demand. With the rapid and deep decline of butadiene in October, merchants have obvious expectations for the slowdown of its later decline. In addition, the sharp decline of the market has boosted the short-term rising trend of downstream profits. However, at the beginning of November, it was heard that a large number of Iranian ships arrived at the port, and the spot supply in the north of China is still abundant. In addition, there is no lack of low-price news of foreign ships, so it is difficult for the market to have a significant positive support in the short term. Butadiene analysis by the business community We expect that the market will continue to decline slightly next week. We suggest that we pay attention to the internal and external market supply and the latest price guidance.
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