Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic carbon black quoted 7,000 yuan/ton on August 30, with a small fluctuation and a price fluctuation range of 100-300 yuan/ton. The market of carbon black is generally stable this month, with low-level operation as the main factor.

In 2018, after a sharp fall in the carbon black market, it is difficult for prices to rise again. Prices fluctuated little throughout the first half of 2019 and there was no further sharp rise or fall in the market.

II. Market Analysis

Industry chain:

In the first half of 2019, the terminal tire market started to decline compared with last year. In the first half of the year, due to the reduction of terminal car sales, combined with trade and other factors, the tire factory started to decline, the upstream carbon black raw oil was affected by the shrinkage of coking industry capacity, and the price remained at a high level. Comprehensive factors led to the decline of the company’s main product carbon black gross interest rate, and the half-year performance declined year on year.

China Rubber Industry Association Carbon Black Branch issued the “Carbon Black Industry Self-Discipline Initiative”. The Initiative said that since the second half of last year, the carbon black industry has experienced unprecedented difficulties and the whole industry has suffered losses. In order to ensure the normal production and operation of the carbon black industry, enterprises are encouraged to consciously limit their production and limit their production range. According to the market demand, on the basis of the original output, the production is limited by 10%-20%, ensuring the balance of supply and demand in the market; stabilizing the market of carbon black raw oil and not participating in the bad competitive behavior of driving up the price of raw oil; stabilizing the market sales and selling according to the reasonable profit space; and also requiring that China’s carbon black exported to the international market should not compete disorderly. 。

Listed company:

Longxing Chemical (002442) recently released its semi-annual report for 2019. The announcement showed that revenue reached 1.411 billion yuan during the reporting period, down 3.64% from the same period last year; net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was 876.26 million yuan, down 86.14% from the same period last year; basic earnings per share was 0.0183 yuan, compared with 0.1317 yuan in the same period last year.

It is understood that during the reporting period, the company’s main business has not changed significantly, and still mainly produces and sells carbon black. 90% of the company’s carbon black sales flow to tire companies. During the reporting period, the company produced 213,800 tons of carbon black, sold 220,100 tons of carbon black, and realized business income of 141,066.61 million yuan, a decrease of 3.64% over the same period of last year, of which carbon black is sold. Prices fell by 10.54% over the same period last year.

Net profit in the reporting period was 87.666 million yuan, 86.14% lower than that in the same period last year. The sharp decline in profits was mainly due to the impact of lower sales prices. During the same period, carbon black sales prices dropped by 10.54%, and carbon black costs dropped by only 2.44%. The decline in carbon black prices was mainly due to the weakness of the tire market and the release of new carbon black production capacity, which intensified competition.

According to the data, Longxing Chemical Company is mainly engaged in the production and sale of carbon black, silica and coal tar products, and is the backbone enterprise of domestic carbon black industry.

Black Cat shares (002068) in the first half of 2019, the company realized business income of 3.171 billion yuan, down 18.64% from the same period last year; net profit – 116 million yuan, 306 million yuan in the same period last year; net profit after deduction – 119 million yuan, 305 million yuan in the same period last year.

During the reporting period, the production and marketing data of domestic automobile industry continued to decline, and the demand declined. The downstream tire industry started construction and purchasing intention of the company declined. The upstream carbon black raw oil was affected by the shrinkage of coking industry capacity, and the price remained at a high level all the time. Comprehensive factors led to the interest rate of carbon black wool, the company’s main product. Decline, half-year performance declined year-on-year.

Data show that the company is mainly engaged in the production and sales of carbon black, tar refining and silica products, of which carbon black products account for more than 80%, is the company’s main business products.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Society Chemical Branch carbon black data analysts believe that: due to the downstream demand reduction, coupled with July and August for the downstream demand off-season, the trend of carbon black easy to fall and difficult to rise will continue, short-term has not been significantly positive, the market is expected to continue to operate at a low level.

On August 28, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 57.75, up 0.33 points from yesterday, down 51.93% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 19.27% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

In recent years, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has maintained strong, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has increased slightly, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiations is 5800-6000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5400-5500 yuan/ton; the phthalic anhydride market in North China is still under pressure. Mainstream quotation ranges from 5800 to 5900 yuan/ton. Market price has risen slightly. Some manufacturers have raised their ex-factory prices. Downstream construction is not high. Purchasing on demand is the main way. The wait-and-see mentality is strong. Domestic phthalic anhydride plants are running steadily, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly.

Recently, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream products is 6100 yuan/ton, the import market of phthalic anhydride in port area is rising, the quotation is temporarily stable, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in port is general, the stock of port is at a low level, the quotation of phthalic anhydride outside market is falling concussively, the actual transaction price is based on negotiation, and the upstream price trend is rising. Benefiting the domestic phthalic anhydride market, the market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. DOP prices in the downstream rose, isooctanol prices rose, and DOP costs rose. DOP prices rose, DOP downstream demand shocks declined, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market slightly lower, DOP market mainstream transaction price of about 7400 yuan/ton, downstream prices remain shocks, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to remain strong in the later period.

On August 28, the rare earth index was 373 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.70% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 37.64% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 395,500 yuan per ton, dysprosium metal is 2.3 million yuan per ton and praseodymium metal is 695,000 yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxides in rare earth oxides increased by 4000 yuan/ton to 317,500 yuan/ton; the price of dysprosium oxide dropped by 5000 yuan/ton to 191,000 yuan/ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 382,500 yuan/ton; and the average price of neodymium oxide increased by 4000 yuan/ton to 315,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 395,500 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 191,000 yuan per ton.

Recently, the prices of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market have fallen, but the prices of light rare earth market have risen slightly. The domestic rare earth market has a general trading market. The prices of dysprosium-terbium metal oxides have fallen slightly. Recently, the inquiries for praseodymium oxide and neodymium oxide in the field have increased, and the prices of light rare earth oxides have maintained a rising trend. At that time, the sellers of light rare earth in the field had a pity selling situation. Xu, bullish future market, recent on-site transactions in general. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market input of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, with normal supply and stable price trend in the rare earth market. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general, but for products. Pricing major manufacturers are also cautious.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have stepped up effective measures to regulate the industry, innovate and improve the relevant management mechanism, accelerate the construction of a rational industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective protection of resources, orderly production and operation of the industry development pattern, and give full play to the special price of rare earth as a strategic resource. Meanwhile, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and national reserves.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that domestic environmental stringency will not diminish in the near future, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and normal supply, but the demand for rare earth downstream has been supported in the near future, and some prices in the rare earth market are expected to rise.

On August 27, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 27th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 26, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 2 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 762-764 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 781-783 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The fluctuation of foreign prices has a certain impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of domestic p-xylene is temporarily stable.

On August 26, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to $53.64 per barrel, a decline of $0.53. Brent crude oil futures fell to $58.70 per barrel, a decline of $0.64. In a recent report issued by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the growth rate of global crude oil demand per day in 2019 is expected to be reduced from 1.5 million barrels to 1.1 million barrels. It is also expected that there will be a slight surplus in the oil market in 2020, and that the trend of crude oil prices will decline, which will have a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products and the market price of paraxylene. The trend of the latter is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has maintained a low price, PTA price has been stable for 27 days. The average price of East China is raised near 5100-5200 yuan/ton. As of the 26th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 94.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 86.5%, and the PTA social stock is estimated to be about 1.4 million tons. Affected by the shutdown and maintenance of the plant, the overall maintenance in August is carried out. Keep a small tempo of depot. PTA factory inventory accounts for about 30%, polyester factory raw material inventory accounts for about 28%, downstream polyester factory has space to continue to replenish. Towards the traditional sales season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” for textiles, downstream terminal enterprises may usher in the procurement cycle and demand side will improve. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain volatile in the short term.

On August 25, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic ammonium nitrate market prices slipped slightly on the 26th. Domestic ammonium nitrate plants are running smoothly and are in the off-season of downstream demand. Ammonium nitrate manufacturers have a general delivery market and purchase on demand downstream. In addition, affected by environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China has been shut down a lot. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up and low on-site prices. The amplitude declined. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream in Shaanxi was 190-2000 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 190-2000 yuan/ton, and in Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate was small. The amplitude declined.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price has maintained a low trend, with the market price of 1610 yuan/ton as of the 26th. The domestic nitric acid market price has maintained a low level, which has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Jiangsu mainstream manufacturers quoted 1600 yuan/ton, Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1620 yuan/ton, Shandong manufacturers quoted 1620 yuan/ton, the low price trend of nitric acid has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, the price trend of ammonium nitrate slightly declined; upstream domestic liquid ammonia Market volatility, the market performance is general, The market turnover is still acceptable. The market price of liquid ammonia is 3210 yuan/ton. The upstream cost of liquid ammonia is lower. In addition, most of the manufacturers’inventory pressure has increased compared with the previous period. Some plants have been restarted and local ammonia supply in the region has increased. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most of the manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia, while the manufacturers in North China have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price is maintained in the range of 2900-3400 yuan/ton and 2500-2600 yuan/ton in Northwest China. The low level of liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market prices remain volatile, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the later period.