Market Overview: Before and after the May Day holiday, the local supply of acrylonitrile in the domestic market decreased, leading to a temporary weak balance in the market. Coupled with continued cost pressures, suppliers maintained high prices, and the overall market remained stagnant and consolidated. As of May 9th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports has been maintained at around 8100-8300 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market has been maintained at around 7900-8100 yuan/ton.
Supply reduction: On the one hand, planned maintenance or load reduction of northern facilities. The supply in the East China region has increased this month. According to statistics, as of May 8th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 74.37%, a decrease of -2.49% compared to the same period last week.
Inventory decline: According to statistics, as of May 7th, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 47000 tons, an increase of -0.3 million tons from last week.
Flat demand: The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile varies, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate is 69.00%, an increase of 1.86% compared to last week, and the demand fluctuation is not significant.
Cost increase: Before and after the May Day holiday, the overall price of propylene in Shandong’s market rose, with the mainstream price around 6650 yuan/ton, up about 1.3% from before the holiday. At present, there is no significant fluctuation in the equipment surface, and the overall inventory of the enterprise is low, which still supports the price trend. It is expected that the propylene market price will remain strong in the short term.
Market forecast: Currently, the overall supply is still abundant, and demand fluctuations are not obvious. In the long run, considering the gradual release of new production capacity, the pressure of supply-demand contradiction continues to exist. However, in the short term, industry inventory is controllable, and with cost support, suppliers may continue to maintain high prices. However, the fundamentals remain weak, and the market lacks effective rebound momentum. Overall, it is temporarily stable and consolidating.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke declined at the end of the month. As of April 30th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2262.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93% from 2355.00 yuan/ton on April 27th.

Recently, the trend of crude oil prices has fallen. On the one hand, there are significant differences within OPEC+regarding crude oil production, which has led to increased uncertainty in the prospects of crude oil supply and mainly caused low-level fluctuations in the crude oil market. On the other hand, the increase in tariffs by the United States has raised concerns about global demand for crude oil, causing the crude oil market to remain volatile at a low level.

At the end of the month, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was average, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was average. Refinery shipments were hindered, and in addition, the benchmark price for pre baked anodes purchased by a certain aluminum plant in Shandong in May decreased compared to April, which limited support for petroleum coke. As a result, the overall price of petroleum coke from local refineries fell. Recently, the concentration of coke in the United States has been concentrated in ports, mainly high sulfur coke. The trading of petroleum coke in ports is average, and the port inventory is sufficient. Downstream enterprises maintain essential procurement, and the imported petroleum coke market has declined slightly.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC spot market continued its downward trend from the previous month in April. As of April 30th, the average price of PVC in China was 4679 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 4.70%.
2、 Market analysis
This month, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend from March, with a deepening decline and almost no rebound throughout the month. The trend was slightly flat in the latter half of the month, with the decline mainly slowing down.
Specifically, on the one hand, due to the low levels of upstream crude oil and weak ethylene prices, coupled with the suppression of the futures market, the spot PVC market is generally experiencing a bearish trend. On the other hand, there is a certain pressure on supply and demand, and the spot market has not yet escaped the downward channel. There is basically no rebound trend after a decline in the market during the month, and the operating rate continues to be high. Production continues to increase, and there is a slight surplus of supply. At present, there is no signal of bottoming out and stabilizing in the market. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of April 30th, the mainstream price range of PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4650-4800 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since April, the price of calcium carbide has risen, mainly concentrated at the beginning of the month, and the market has stabilized in the middle and late of the month, with price range adjustments. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price increase of calcium carbide since March has been 5.1%. Overall, calcium carbide lacks positive guidance and has limited support. With the weak performance of downstream PVC market, the price of calcium carbide may not stabilize and improve in the near future.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts from Shengyi Society believe that PVC supply and demand will remain weak in the short term, mainly due to the sustained high operating rates of manufacturers, as well as high inventory levels in both enterprises and the market. On the cost side, it is difficult for the upstream price of calcium carbide to increase, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in May 2025, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 27th, the price of 0 # zinc was 23186 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.94% compared to the zinc price of 22524 yuan/ton on April 21st.
This week’s market analysis
This week, zinc prices have shown a strong upward trend. The trend is coherent and stable, with no significant price pullback during the period, which indirectly confirms the relatively stable performance of the current market demand and strong support from the overall demand fundamentals.
Raw material end
This week, the refinery’s raw material reserve is relatively abundant. The weekly processing fees for domestic and imported zinc concentrates have remained stable without significant fluctuations. Recently, there has been a certain degree of recovery in the comparison between domestic and foreign prices, which has led to an increase in the quoted quantity of imported zinc. However, due to careful consideration of the subsequent zinc price trend, the smelter’s purchasing intention is not strong and their attitude is relatively cautious. Some responsible persons of smelters have revealed that although the current processing fees remain stable, considering the uncertainty and volatility risks of zinc prices in the future, as well as potential instability factors in the raw material supply chain, there are currently no plans to significantly increase the amount of raw material procurement.
Supply and demand side
In terms of current market trends, zinc processing fees continue to rise and there is still no sign of a trend reversal. The high level of processing fees has brought considerable profit margins to smelting enterprises, which objectively effectively mobilizes the production enthusiasm and enthusiasm of smelting plants. The supply of zinc ingots and other products in the future is highly likely to maintain a stable and increasing trend.
On the demand side, as we enter April, the traditional peak season characteristics of the construction industry are beginning to emerge, and the demand for galvanized steel has increased to a certain extent. Under this driving force, the enthusiasm of galvanizing enterprises for production is high, and the operating rate is increasing accordingly. Downstream buyers are highly price sensitive when faced with galvanized products, frequently lowering prices to reduce costs, which puts considerable pressure on galvanized enterprises and seriously restricts their willingness to further expand zinc demand. Galvanizing enterprises mainly purchase zinc ingots for essential needs.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate and run weakly next week.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 11th, the price of lead 1 # was 16795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56% from the lead price of 16890 yuan/ton on April 7th.
This week’s market analysis
This week, lead prices were affected by macro factors and operated weakly.
Starting from 12:00 on April 10th, China will impose tariffs on all imported goods originating from the United States. The adjustment of tariff rates between China and the United States this time far exceeded market expectations, and the impact of macro factors continues to ferment and expand. Market risk aversion has significantly increased, and the non-ferrous metal sector as a whole has shown a general downward trend. In terms of the lead industry chain, the impact of this tariff increase is relatively significant. On the one hand, the United States is the main source of lead concentrate imports for China, and tariff adjustments will to some extent push up the cost of lead smelting; On the other hand, the export of lead-acid batteries for automobiles has also been affected, and tariff changes may have adverse effects on the export business of related battery products.
supply end
The profitability of the domestic primary lead smelting industry has significantly improved, and smelters have successfully overcome losses and achieved profitability, with profit margins gradually expanding. In this context, the production enthusiasm of smelters is high, and the power to release production capacity is abundant. It is expected that the production of primary lead will maintain a steady growth trend. In the field of recycled lead, due to the continuous rise in the market price of lead waste and the tightening supply of raw materials, recycled lead production enterprises are facing a sudden increase in cost pressure, or production cuts may occur due to difficulty in bearing the heavy cost burden.
demand side
The current domestic policy effectiveness continues to be released and forms long-term support. It is necessary to focus on the recovery of the terminal consumer market for electric bicycles (electric scooters) and the dynamic changes in the production and sales scale of the automotive industry. The marginal driving effect of these two fields on the demand for lead materials may become a key driving force to support the stabilization and improvement of the lead market.
comprehensive analysis
The supply and demand pattern of the lead industry itself is tightening in the short term, and lead prices may show a weak oscillation pattern of “macro downward traction and fundamental bottom support”. It is necessary to closely monitor the progress of subsequent smelter maintenance and the effectiveness of policy implementation.