price trend
According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in July saw a consolidation after a decline, and some spot prices of certain brands were lowered. As of July 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 14333.33 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.92% compared to early July.
cause analysis
On the supply side: Since July, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have rebounded after experiencing a decline in load. At the beginning of the month, Sichuan Tianhua, Shengtong Juyuan and other enterprises successively announced their maintenance plans. In the middle of the month, Pingmei Shenma also joined the maintenance queue, and there were six industry load reduction parking devices in the area. However, most of them are short-term parking, and production capacity will fully return in the second half of the month. At the end of the month, the industry average operating level returned to 77% of the beginning of the month, and the weekly average output was close to 65000 tons. The on-site supply is abundant, with high inventory levels remaining stagnant, and the pattern of ample PC supply remains unchanged. After the addition, there is a shortage of maintenance news in the market, and the pressure on shipments has not decreased. The market supply side has poor support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A fell and then fluctuated in July. Upstream acetone and phenol also fluctuated at a low level in the middle and upper stages, dragging down spot prices. Although there is a rebound trend in raw materials at the end of the month, bisphenol A is also affected by supply and demand contradictions, with weak demand and a lack of upward momentum in the market. Overall, the intraday market trend of bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs. However, with PC prices currently at historically low levels, the easing of cost pressures has also given PC some room for maneuver.
On the demand side: Currently, it is the traditional off-season for PC, with downstream factories experiencing lower loads and weak inventory, mainly due to rigid demand, further dragging down the consumer end. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the supply-demand contradiction within the range has not improved. At present, terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing new orders and are resistant to high priced goods. The financial pressure on merchants has increased, and there has been an increase in the practice of offering discounts on actual orders. The circulation speed of on-site goods is slow, and the trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market experienced a narrow decline in July. The upstream bisphenol A market stabilized after a decline, providing moderate support for PC cost values. The concession of raw materials has made it difficult for the industry to operate at a high level, and the load of domestic PC aggregation plants has rebounded after falling, while the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. The off-season characteristics of downstream demand are obvious, and market benefits are difficult to materialize. Industry players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. It is expected that the PC market will continue to search for a bottom in the future, but PC prices are already at historical lows, and the downward space may be limited,
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