According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated and fell this week. From July 28th to August 4th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 9466.67 yuan/ton to 9050 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 4.4% during the cycle. The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated downward in this cycle, and port inventories in East China have been running at a low level recently. However, domestic refineries are actively shipping, and overall supply is relatively sufficient. As prices continue to decline, downstream stocks are being replenished at low prices, and market trading conditions are still favorable, with overall demand still leaning towards rigid demand. Lacking substantial positive support, the overall price declined during the week.
Cost wise: As of August 1st, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $67.33 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October contract is $69.67 per barrel. The market is concerned that OPEC may increase oil production, coupled with US employment data dragging down the demand outlook.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9200 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 200 yuan/ton this week.
Demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 4th, the market situation of Shunding rubber in East China has been weakly consolidated. Both Tianjiao and Shunding rubber futures fell, with a small number of urgent inquiries from downstream tire factories, resulting in light market transactions and lower quotes from spot market merchants. At present, the mainstream prices in Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 11850-12300 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 11600 to 11900 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil is weak and volatile, with insufficient guidance for the butadiene market and minimal impact. This week’s trend is still influenced by supply and demand. Recently, some downstream units have restarted, and the supply side is expected to increase. From the perspective of demand side, the overall demand is relatively rigid, and the support on the demand side is limited. Overall, the supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that the butadiene market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.
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