The supply-demand pattern has improved in stages, and PTA prices fluctuated upwards in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market slightly rose in November, and remained stagnant in the second half of the month. As of November 26th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4628 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.86% from the beginning of the month.
OPEC+has launched a new round of production increases, but the crude oil market remains concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The regional situation has eased, and coupled with weakened demand from the United States, the issue of US tariffs has dragged down global economic and demand expectations, leading to a volatile decline in international crude oil prices. As of November 26th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.65 per barrel, and the settlement price of the February Brent crude oil futures contract was $62.54 per barrel.
In terms of supply, the short-term PTA processing fees are still low, and inventory remains low. At the end of the month, Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.5 million ton PTA plant restarted, but Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton plant was shut down, and some plants continued to undergo maintenance. The overall domestic supply continues to shrink, and the industry’s operating rate is at 73%. In addition, with the cancellation of BIS, there has been a significant increase in exports from mainstream suppliers, and spot liquidity has tightened.
Downstream polyester production is gradually increasing, and there are still multiple new units expected to be put into operation before the new year. In addition, some polyester units are planned to restart, and the inventory pressure of polyester filament factories is not high, so the overall demand for essential procurement is maintained. Terminal weaving, due to the fact that winter clothing orders have been basically delivered and demand is flat, the pace of domestic and international procurement is gradually slowing down, and there is insufficient momentum for new orders. At the end of the month, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66%, and some weaving enterprises still have expectations of reducing losses.
Business analysts believe that in the short term, geopolitical instability will increase oil price risks, and oil prices may be supported. There has been an increase in the supply side, and the supply and demand still maintain a tight balance. However, there are many unstable external factors, and the commodity trend is deadlocked. In addition, terminal demand has entered the off-season, and there is insufficient momentum to chase after the rise. It is expected that PTA prices will mainly fluctuate and adjust in November.
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