Aluminum prices rose first and then fell in November
Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21460 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78% from the market average price of 21293.33 yuan/ton on November 1; Compared to the market average price of 21933.33 yuan/ton on November 13th, it has decreased by 2.16%.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 21000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
List of November Inventory Data
LME aluminum inventory:
In November 2025, LME aluminum inventory showed a continuous trend of high opening and low decline, with only a few days experiencing slight accumulation. At the beginning of the month, it started at a high level of 558050 tons, and at the end of the month (November 28), it dropped to 539050 tons, a cumulative decrease of 19000 tons for the whole month, a decrease of about 3.4%.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory in November:
In November 2025, the overall social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China showed a trend of slight fluctuations followed by sustained and steady destocking. The inventory gradually declined from a relatively high level at the beginning of the month, with only a brief accumulation in mid November, which did not change the core trend of overall destocking. Specifically, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China at the end of November was 596000 tons, a cumulative decrease of 26000 tons from the reference value of 622000 tons at the beginning of the month, a decrease of about 4.18%. During this period, inventory did not decline in a one-way manner, but went through a process of “mild fluctuations – temporary accumulation in mid month – accelerated destocking in mid to late month”. For example, on November 17th, inventory had increased to 637000 tons, but downstream procurement subsequently made efforts, causing inventory to quickly fall and continue to decline.
Macro expectations boost market sentiment
Recent macroeconomic expectations have boosted market sentiment and helped to reduce inventory. In November, dovish speeches by Federal Reserve officials raised expectations of interest rate cuts, market risk appetite increased, traders’ stocking enthusiasm increased, and inventory turnover speed accelerated. At the same time, in order to avoid the risk of subsequent price fluctuations, midstream and downstream enterprises reserve raw materials in advance during the price decline stage, further accelerating the circulation and digestion of social inventory, and promoting the continuous decline of inventory.
Aluminum price forecast
In the short term, aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate horizontally, and the downward space for aluminum prices is limited in the state of destocking.
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