Since late July, the domestic natural rubber market has been fluctuating and weakening. On the one hand, demand during the off-season is weak, and on the other hand, weather disturbances in production areas have provided bottom support for natural rubber. As a result, natural rubber prices have fallen, but the extent of the decline is limited. The center of gravity of natural rubber prices continues to shift downwards. As of July 31st, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16483 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.64% from 16758 yuan/ton on July 21st.
In late July, domestic production areas continued to experience heavy rainfall and cloudy conditions, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of effective rubber cutting days. The efficiency of glue outflow was low, and the monthly output of domestically produced latex remained low, making it difficult to form an effective supply to the domestic spot market in the short term and further amplifying the domestic market’s dependence on overseas sources of goods.
In late July, frequent rainfall in Southeast Asia disrupted rubber cutting, delaying the pace of overseas new rubber market launches and temporarily easing domestic inventory pressure. As a result, Qingdao Port’s inventory increased slightly. Data shows that as of July 26, 2026, the total inventory of bonded and general trade Tianjiao in Qingdao area was 668100 tons, an increase of 0.1% compared to the previous month.
The tire industry has entered the traditional off-season for maintenance, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate continues to decline. In late July, the operating rate of all steel tires in Shandong region was 62%, and the operating rate of semi steel tires nationwide was 58%. The inventory days of finished products in tire enterprises exceeded 40 days, and the pace of terminal destocking was slow. The willingness of enterprises to replenish raw materials was low, and the mode of on-demand procurement for essential needs was maintained.
Market forecast:
From a technical perspective, in mid to late June 2026, the price will drop below the 10 day and 20 day moving averages, indicating a formal reversal in trend. The current price is running below various moving averages, and the continuous downward trend of the 10 day and 20 day moving averages constitutes strong pressure, with the moving averages showing a bearish trend. Short term oversold rebounds are easily suppressed by moving averages, and the rebound space is limited; If there is no increase in volume to break through the 20 day moving average, the weak pattern will be difficult to reverse. The trend in technical form has turned bearish, and there is a high probability of maintaining a weak oscillation in the short term. The effectiveness of the support below needs to be continuously verified.
Fundamentally speaking, natural rubber maintains a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The maintenance of tire enterprises will continue in early August, and there is currently no obvious repair power on the demand side. Rubber prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. The core of the medium to long term market depends on the marginal changes in supply and demand. On the one hand, it tracks the weather trends in Southeast Asian production areas and verifies the expected supply contraction caused by El Ni ñ o drought; On the other hand, closely monitor the pace of downstream tire resumption and the recovery strength of the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season.
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