LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 9123 yuan/ton on September 7th and 9466 yuan/ton on September 11th, an increase of 3.76%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11900 yuan/ton on September 7th and 12200 yuan/ton on September 11th, an increase of 2.52%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on September 7th was 10925 yuan/ton, and on September 11th it was 11100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60%.
In August, multiple sets of PE equipment in China underwent centralized maintenance, resulting in a contraction of supply and a decrease in petrochemical inventory, while spot support increased. The maintenance equipment will resume production in September, and domestic supply will gradually rebound. The short-term supply pressure is still limited, and the subsequent increase in supply will gradually become apparent.
September has entered the traditional peak season for agricultural film, and demand has rebounded compared to the previous month. But the profits of downstream products are squeezed by the rise in raw material prices, and many enterprises are reluctant to stock up in large quantities due to their urgent needs. Demand can only support the bottom, and it is difficult to sustain a significant increase in prices.
International crude oil is boosted by geopolitical factors, and the cost of oil to PE production has risen, which is the core support of this round of market trend. The fluctuation of coal raw material for coal to PE is not significant, and the cost is relatively stable. If crude oil subsequently falls, the cost support for oil production will weaken, and the market will be under pressure accordingly.
The current PE market is driven by both rising costs and previous supply contraction. Short term reliance on low inventory and peak season for agricultural film to maintain high volatility. With the resumption of production and the gradual realization of peak season expectations, there is a risk of a downturn in the market in the middle and later stages.
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