In July, the hydrogen peroxide market showed mixed ups and downs, with price fluctuations mainly being downward. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 653 yuan/ton. On the 27th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% in price.
Factors affecting the rise and fall of hydrogen peroxide market in July
Supply side: Oversupply is the primary factor that suppresses prices. In July, the weekly operating rate of hydrogen peroxide in China was close to 70%, and the volume of goods from large factories increased, resulting in a very abundant market supply. Although there was a shutdown and maintenance of the equipment in mid July, the production and shipment of 300000 tons of new equipment in Guizhou during the same period offset the benefits brought by the maintenance.
Demand side: The main downstream industries have performed poorly, making it difficult to digest the increase in supply. Due to insufficient load, the caprolactam factory has reduced the amount of hydrogen peroxide used; Downstream industries such as papermaking and epichlorohydrin also hold onto essential procurement from multiple sources, and there has been no large-scale replenishment of inventory. This mentality of ‘buying up, not buying down’ further suppresses market transactions.
Regional differentiation of inventory: Due to abundant supply but average demand in the northern region, inventory pressure continues to rise; However, due to the continuous outsourcing of downstream caprolactam factories, inventory in the southern region has decreased, which is also a reason for regional price differentiation.
Technical Prediction of Business Society’s Hydrogen Peroxide Spot Analysis: From the price trend chart of Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide, it can be seen that the key indicator is that on June 29th, the 10 day moving average of hydrogen peroxide crossed the 20 day moving average, and hydrogen peroxide showed an upward trend. In mid July, the 10 day and 20 day moving averages of hydrogen peroxide gradually approached each other, with a positive narrowing of the moving average and a slowdown in the upward trend.
Auxiliary indicators: At the end of July, the price of hydrogen peroxide was at a 10 day low, a 20 day low, and a 30 day median, indicating that there is still room for an upward trend in the hydrogen peroxide market in the long run.
In summary, in early August, there was a long short game in the domestic hydrogen peroxide fundamentals, which eased the supply pressure and resulted in poor terminal demand. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the hydrogen peroxide market was at a medium low level in late July, with promising upward potential. At the beginning of August, the overall market for hydrogen peroxide fluctuated widely, with a high probability of increase, and the expected price is between 600 yuan/ton and 700 yuan/ton.
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