1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 132416.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 5.93%.
Macroscopically, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, Iran launches attacks on US military targets in multiple countries, the navigation volume in the Strait of Hormuz drops to zero at one point, and oil prices approach $100 per barrel. The soaring oil prices have reignited inflation concerns, with the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September jumping to over 78%, and the US dollar index reaching a three week high of 101.3. The United States has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 economies. On a macro level, a negative feedback chain of “soaring oil prices – rising inflation – expectations of interest rate hikes – strengthening of the US dollar” is formed, which systematically suppresses metals priced in US dollars.
On the supply side: Indonesia will significantly reduce its nickel ore RKAB quota from 379 million tons to 260 million tons in 2026, a decrease of over 30%, and the quota for the core mining area of Veda Bay will plummet by 71%; The quota approval has been adjusted from a fixed three-year cycle to an annual dynamic approval, significantly weakening the long-term production expectations of mines. The situation in the Middle East has pushed up sulfur prices, increased the cost of wet smelting, and restricted MHP production.
On the demand side: July is the traditional off-season for consumption, with weak demand for stainless steel terminals and a slower pace of steel plant procurement; Although the production of new energy ternary precursors remains at a high level, downstream only needs to replenish inventory at low prices, and large-scale replenishment has not yet occurred.
In summary, macroeconomic expectations have fluctuated, with tight mining policies and high costs providing bottom support. However, high inventory and off-season demand have suppressed upward space, and the dual suppression of macroeconomic geopolitical risks and interest rate hike expectations has been present throughout the week. It is expected that nickel will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.
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