The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the price of isooctanol was 8033.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 5.70% compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton on January 1st. In January, the equipment production of isooctanol enterprises remained stable. After the New Year’s Day holiday, inventory was replenished, and downstream manufacturers stocked up before the Spring Festival, resulting in a brief increase in demand. As a result, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in January.

In January, the supply of isooctanol was sufficient and the demand increased

In January, isooctanol enterprises started production steadily, and with the continuous production of new octanol capacity, the supply of isooctanol increased. After the New Year’s Day holiday, downstream manufacturers replenished their inventory, and coupled with stocking up before the Spring Festival, the demand for isooctanol increased, leading to an increase in isooctanol prices.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the DOP price was 8513.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.49% compared to the DOP price of 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. The profit margin of plasticizer DOP is high, and plasticizer enterprises are actively operating. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is high, and plasticizers have a certain positive support for the demand for isooctanol. Plasticizer enterprises replenish their inventory and purchase isooctanol after the holiday, and downstream demand for isooctanol is supported.

Future expectations

The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that in January, the equipment production of isooctanol enterprises was at a high level, and with the addition of new production capacity, the shortage of isooctanol supply was alleviated, resulting in significant downward pressure on isooctanol; High profits, active downstream production, and post holiday inventory replenishment and pre Spring Festival stocking have provided significant support for demand for isooctanol. In the future, the supply shortage of isooctanol has been alleviated, with strong demand support. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 6th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1711 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.82% from the reference average price of 1798 yuan/ton on January 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have dropped significantly. As of January 6th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1560-1610 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1620 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1600 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1640 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1760 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market has strong supply and weak demand. On the supply side, urea supply has been relatively loose this week, and market inventory has increased. In terms of demand, downstream demand is weak, and due to the recent decline in urea prices, downstream consumers are mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach. At present, the market trading is light, with transactions mainly at low prices.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the domestic urea market has been weak and declining recently. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and manufacturers are continuously lowering prices in order to clear inventory. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the cotton yarn market continued to be sluggish this week, with prices temporarily stable. Currently, yarn mills have no profits, and orders are being executed on a case by case basis, resulting in an overall market stalemate. As of January 3rd, the reference spot price for 21S pure cotton ring spinning in Shandong Province, China is around 22565 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; The spot reference price for 32S pure cotton ring spinning is 24075 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

Market Overview: As the end of the year approaches, the market’s stocking mentality is not good, and lowering prices does not significantly stimulate downstream shipments. Some textile companies have reported increased difficulty in shipping. The price of cotton yarn is temporarily stable, and the market continues to be sluggish. Currently, yarn mills have no profit and are resistant to price reductions. Order execution is a matter of negotiation, and traders are mainly watching and waiting for large yarn mills to sell their goods and build warehouses before the holiday. The overall market is in a stalemate.

Decline in start-up: Due to increased sales pressure, large-scale yarn mills have maintained stable start-up, while some small and medium-sized yarn mills have continued to reduce start-up or shut down for holidays. As of January 2, the start-up load of mainstream textile enterprises was 60.2%, a month on month decrease of 3.53%. It is expected that the number of companies shutting down next week will continue to increase, while the number of startups will still slightly decrease.

Finished product inventory: The increase in finished product inventory of textile enterprises slowed down this week, and market shipments remained stable. Some enterprises stopped selling their inventory, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory. As of January 2, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises in major regions was 35.5 days, with a week on week increase of 0.09%. As the Spring Festival approaches, some manufacturers have announced that they will take early holidays, and it is expected that inventory will decrease next week.

In terms of raw materials: Zheng cotton slightly rose this week, and there has been no clear guidance in the market recently. The upward trend in the market is mainly manifested by short positions taking profits and leaving. In terms of spot goods, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream textile companies have planned to shut down one after another, resulting in a significant reduction in stocking volume and market transactions. As most cotton mills come to an end, the daily processing volume has decreased, and cotton supply this year is relatively loose. It is expected that the cotton market will fluctuate weakly next week.

On the demand side: According to feedback from Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places, as downstream autumn and winter fabric sales turn from strong to weak, the operating rate of some textile factories in coastal areas continues to decline (a few textile factories have started production restrictions/reductions and the Spring Festival holiday mode). Although the yarn inventory of distributors is low, they have entered a “shutdown” state ahead of schedule due to the increase in export/domestic sales variables of cotton textiles and clothing in the first half of 2025, and the entire fabric consumption terminal has fallen into a “stagnant pool”.

Market forecast: In summary, the off-season in the cotton spinning market is gradually deepening, downstream orders are increasing less, textile companies are shipping slowly, production is decreasing, inventory is increasing, and the prices of conventional varieties are rolling inward, resulting in meager profits for textile companies. In addition, upstream cotton inventory is slightly loose compared to the same period. Due to general terminal demand, some textile companies have early holiday plans. It is expected that textile companies will sell goods at low prices to recoup funds. In the short term, they will face insufficient price incentives, and yarn prices will continue to be under pressure. It is expected that large textile enterprises will continue to lower prices and sell goods near the Spring Festival, with a focus on the impact of terminal consumption and macroeconomic dynamics on the market.

With the arrival of the off-season for downstream demand, the epoxy propane market has stabilized this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 2nd, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8312.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.92% compared to the beginning of this week.

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: With the gradual restart of enterprise facilities, the production of epichlorohydrin has increased. Individual load reduction maintenance of chlorohydrin method, Lihua Yi continues to operate at 60% load, and Zhejiang Petrochemical stops.

Raw material end: narrow width finishing of propylene is the main focus. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 1st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6835.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.15% compared to the beginning of last month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: Downstream demand sentiment is relatively cold, procurement follow-up is insufficient, market actual order trading is cold, and first-time purchases are the main focus, with a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that with the restart and recovery of enterprise equipment, epoxy propane production has increased, and downstream demand side purchases are cautious and insufficient to follow up, with a strong wait-and-see mentality. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will remain weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market fell in December. On December 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15060 yuan/ton, and on December 30th, it was 14900 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.06%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market continued to decline in December. During the off-season of the industry this month, downstream market demand remained weak. The price of raw material titanium concentrate first fell and then rose, with the main trend being the increase in sulfuric acid prices. The production cost pressure of titanium dioxide enterprises is still relatively high. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream factories are expected to stock up before the holiday in the first half of the year, which may be beneficial for the market. At the end of the month, Titanium Sea and Yutu sent letters to domestic customers to raise prices by 500 yuan/ton, aiming to stabilize and stop the decline. The specific market performance still needs further observation. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15700 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to customs data, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China in November 2024 was 6700.87 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.66% and a month on month increase of 3.94%; From January to November 2024, China imported a total of about 84700 tons of titanium dioxide, a year-on-year increase of 15.51% compared to last year, and the import volume increased by about 11400 tons.

In November 2024, China’s titanium dioxide exports were 149300 tons, a decrease of 3.23% compared to the previous month and an increase of 19.54% compared to the same period last year; From January to November 2024, China’s cumulative export of titanium dioxide was about 1.7433 million tons, an increase of 16.35% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume increased by about 245000 tons.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of raw material titanium concentrate first fell and then rose in December, with the following main trends overall. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a weak market situation, high cost pressure, strong market pressure sentiment, and cautious procurement. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the supply of raw materials has decreased, and processing plants have gradually stopped production. The overall inventory in the field is not high, and the supply is tight. The titanium ore market quotation has rebounded. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1400-1450 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 1950-2000 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2000-2200 yuan/ton. It is expected that in the short term, the mainstream titanium ore prices in the Panxi region will be mainly strong.

According to customs data, China imported 484700 tons of titanium ore in November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.84% and a month on month increase of 11.23%, with a monthly average price of 252.54 US dollars per ton; From January to November 2024, China imported approximately 4.5041 million tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 15.26%, with an increase of approximately 596200 tons in import volume.

In November 2024, China exported 8191.49 tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 475.21% and a month on month decrease of 17.87%; From January to November 2024, China’s cumulative export of titanium ore was about 75900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 241.88%, and the export volume increased by about 53700 tons.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market demand performance this month is still poor, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The focus of the titanium ore market is upward, and costs are under pressure. In the first half of the year, downstream factories had pre holiday stocking expectations. Titanium Sea and Yutu sent letters to raise prices domestically in order to stabilize and stop the decline, and further test the performance of the stocking market in the near future. Overall, the titanium dioxide market is still dominated by a wait-and-see approach, with prices remaining stable and subject to negotiation.