According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the focus of the domestic PTA spot market slightly shifted this week (June 9-13). As of June 13, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4932 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.99% from the beginning of the month. Geopolitics is heating up, and the sharp rise in crude oil prices is helping to strengthen costs. However, there are expectations of weakening on the supply and demand sides, and there is insufficient support on the demand side, resulting in a lack of market momentum to chase after price increases.
Looking ahead, the progress of the China US economic and trade talks in the crude oil market is smooth, boosting global demand expectations. Combined with the continuation of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States and the instability of the geopolitical situation, it provides certain support for oil prices. But the global economic recovery is still slow, which may curb the rise in oil prices. As of June 12th, the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $68.04 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.06 per barrel.
In terms of self supply, mainstream domestic producers have restarted their facilities, and Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.5 million ton annual production facility has been put into operation, resulting in a significant increase in supply and an industry operating rate of around 83%. The peak of PTA plant maintenance has passed, and new production capacity is being tested and put into operation. It is expected that PTA supply will continue to increase within the month.
Meanwhile, the performance of downstream polyester end is not ideal, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The performance of domestic and foreign trade orders at the terminal is scarce, with a small number of orders being mainly sampled in autumn and winter, but there is still uncertainty for subsequent orders. Next week, there is an expectation of an increase in device storage load, and some maintenance devices are planned to restart. The weaving operation rate is still at a low level, and there may be a downward risk in the weaving industry at the end of the month.
Business analysts believe that the macro outlook is relatively warm, with crude oil rebounding significantly in the short term. However, the supply of raw material PX has returned, PTA new facilities have been put into operation, and there are plans to restart early-stage maintenance facilities. The seasonal off-season for terminals is approaching, with weak demand performance and expectations of weakened supply and demand. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term.
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