This week (December 1-5), the price of polyester bottle flakes showed a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the price data from Shengyi Society, as of December 5, the average selling price of PET was 5785 yuan/ton. The overall situation is dominated by the cost side game, and the weak supply and demand side continues to constrain the space for price rebound. The following is a specific analysis:
The cost side is the core of price fluctuations. At the beginning of the week, with the support of geopolitical premiums and phased destocking of upstream PTA, raw material prices rose, driving the bottle tablet market upward. But in the second half of the week, due to the failure of the expected US oil adjustment logic and the seasonal accumulation of international crude oil, cost support significantly weakened, leading to a decline in bottle chip prices.
The loose pressure on the supply side is evident, with a weekly operating rate of 72.9% for bottle tablets this week, an increase of 2% compared to the previous week. In addition, there are plans to restart equipment in late December, adding pressure to new production capacity. The available days of factory inventory increased by 0.43 to 16.49 days compared to the previous week.
The demand is in the traditional off-season, with a year-on-year decline of 5.7% in soft drink production from January to October. Downstream purchasing intentions are sluggish, and caution is being exercised. Market trading is sluggish, making it difficult to form effective support for prices.
Business Society believes that the price of polyester bottle chips is expected to weakly consolidate in the range of 5700-5850 yuan/ton next week, with a high probability of cost fluctuations. The loose supply and demand pattern is unlikely to change, and there is no hope of short-term volume increase on the demand side. The market may continue to maintain a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.
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