Market Overview: (12.1-12.9)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 9th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 1685 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month and significantly decreased by 45.56% compared to the same period last year. Highlighting that the market is in a historical price depression, with severe overall pressure.
In the first week of December, the overall market consolidation was observed, with companies bidding for shipments over the weekend and downstream restocking moderately. Recently, there has been an intention to reduce the negative load or inventory of devices in the region, and the willingness of enterprises to stabilize prices has increased. Currently, the ex factory price in Shandong has rebounded to 1640-1670 yuan/ton, showing a narrow upward adjustment trend.
Supply side: Although the load is high, local load reduction forms support
The industry’s operating rate is at a high level of about 85%, and the overall supply is sufficient. However, in recent times, some facilities in Shandong have planned to reduce or reduce inventory, coupled with varying inventory pressures on enterprises, which has slightly eased supply pressure and increased the willingness of enterprises to stabilize prices.
Demand side: Continued weakness, suppressing upward price potential
Despite the low prices, downstream and traders’ willingness to purchase goods is still weak, and they tend to purchase on demand, making it difficult to form a sustained upward momentum. The market trading is mainly driven by rigid demand, and there is no obvious improvement signal on the demand side.
Cost side: The trend of raw materials is differentiated, with significant support from liquid chlorine
Liquid chlorine: Downstream demand remains stable, and prices in Shandong remain high, becoming a key cost support.
Methanol: The market replenishment pace has slowed down, import expectations have increased, and price fluctuations have been weak, partially easing cost pressures. As of December 9th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42% during the period.
Market outlook: In the short term, the market is expected to remain stable with a narrow range of adjustments, and both upper and lower spaces are limited
Supporting factors: High cost of liquid chlorine, partial supply adjustment brought about by the reduction of enterprise burden, and clear intention of enterprises to stabilize prices.
Restrictive factors: The overall industry load is still high, and the weak trend of terminal demand has not changed, which will suppress the high rebound of prices.
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