Market Overview: Cost Support Failure, Continuous Decline (12.1-12.10)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 10th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 4400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58% from the beginning of the month. Recently, the dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market has shown a clear downward trend. Affected by changes in the supply and demand structure, major production enterprises have generally lowered their quotations, and the rise in raw material prices has not been effectively transmitted to the product side, resulting in a deviation phenomenon of “cost increase, product decline” in the market.
Supply side pressure increases
In the early stage, some parking or load reduction devices have been restarted one after another, and the overall operating rate of the industry has rebounded. The market spot supply tends to be loose. Supply recovery is one of the main driving factors for current price pressure, intensifying competition among sellers. Under the strong willingness of enterprises to ship and the strategy of actively lowering prices to reduce inventory, the focus of quotations continues to decline, and the profit margin of enterprises is significantly compressed.
Demand recovery falls short of expectations
The downstream major fields such as polycarbonate (PC) have not yet seen centralized procurement volume. Enterprises generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, only maintaining a small number of on-demand orders, waiting for the substantial recovery of demand in the terminal application field.
The cost transmission mechanism is obstructed
As of December 10th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 8166.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.94% from the beginning of the month. Although the prices of raw materials such as epichlorohydrin have increased, in the context of loose supply and demand, upstream costs are difficult to effectively transmit to downstream, reflecting the current market discourse power tilting towards buyers.
Outlook for the future: Supply and demand outweigh cost, and the market remains stable with small fluctuations
The dimethyl carbonate market is currently in a stage of adjustment dominated by “supply recovery and slow demand”. In the short term, the downward space for prices is limited, but there is a lack of sufficient upward momentum, and it is expected to present a pattern of “large stability, small movements, and narrow fluctuations”.
Great stability: The current price is close to the cost line of some enterprises, and the resistance to further decline is increasing. The market is gradually bottoming out;
Xiao Dong: The supply-demand game continues, and in order to promote shipments, there may still be slight price concessions in some areas.
Whether the market can stabilize and rebound depends on the following factors: whether the supply side actively reduces production to balance the current excess pressure; Can downstream demand experience seasonal improvement or terminal consumption recovery, driving the supply chain to replenish inventory.
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