According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose this week (4.1-4.30), with an average market price of 375920 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 386910 yuan/ton as of April 30th, an increase of 2.92%.
Technically speaking, the 10 day moving average crossed the 20 day moving average in the first half of the year, and the business social average (10 day moving average -20 day moving average) changed from negative to positive, releasing a clear upward signal. Subsequently, the mean difference remained positive, indicating that the short-term bullish trend was dominant; The average difference between mid month and end of month showed a positive narrowing, corresponding to a periodic price correction, which is a normal adjustment during the upward process and did not trigger a downward signal. At the end of the month, although the price slightly fell, it still remained above the 10 day moving average, and the strong pattern has not changed.
At the macro level, the marginal easing of expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and the weakening of the US dollar index have boosted the non-ferrous sector; The domestic manufacturing PMI continues to be in the expansion range, and the improvement in terminal consumption expectations also provides macro support for tin prices.
Supply and demand and raw material side
Tight supply supports price bottom: Myanmar’s tin ore imports remain low, and domestic smelters are constrained by raw materials, resulting in limited increase in operating rates and tight spot circulation; On the demand side, the marginal recovery of orders in the electronics industry, the recovery of semiconductor prosperity, and the demand for pre holiday replenishment by soldering companies have driven an improvement in spot trading. In terms of inventory, domestic social inventory remains low, and LME inventory as a whole is still at a low level in recent years, further strengthening price support.
comprehensive analysis
Short term tin prices will continue to maintain a strong oscillation pattern, with support around 380000 yuan/ton at the bottom and pressure at the integer level of 400000 yuan/ton at the top. It is necessary to pay close attention to changes in Myanmar’s mineral imports and electronic orders, and be alert to the risk of high-level pullbacks.
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