According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 13th to 17th, the domestic BDO price remained at 8735 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 1.02% and a year-on-year increase of 1.67%. Partial device maintenance, agent replacement, short shutdown or load reduction, etc. have reduced the supply of goods, supporting the supplier’s stable market mentality. The downstream demand performance after the holiday is average, and there is a bargaining sentiment towards raw material inventory under cost pressure. The supply-demand negotiation game results in a weak and stable market trading focus.
In terms of supply and equipment, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has declined to below 50%, with increased support from the supply side and active efforts from suppliers to stabilize the market. The supply side of BDO is expected to be affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: There have been periodic fluctuations in the domestic calcium carbide market. Recently, the supply instability in Inner Mongolia has strengthened, and the orderly use of electricity has led to unstable supply, resulting in a sharp decrease in periodic supply. Downstream maintenance is concentrated, and the supply-demand game is fierce, resulting in a decrease followed by an increase in the price of calcium carbide. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out. As of 3:00 pm on October 17th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2260 yuan/ton. Fluctuations in raw material calcium carbide, weak consolidation of methanol, and mixed impact on BDO cost.
On the demand side, after the holiday, the main downstream PTMEG industry will undergo equipment maintenance, while other equipment will operate more stably, resulting in a reduction in overall demand side digestion. Before the National Day holiday, downstream industries mostly complete stocking up, and after the holiday, they tend to digest early inventory or maintain contract follow-up. The spot purchase volume is light and negotiated, suppressing the trend of raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: Some maintenance equipment will restart, leading to an increase in BDO supply. Downstream industries such as PTMEG and PBT have seen a decrease in production, resulting in a reduction in raw material digestion. The game between supply and demand is intensifying, and BDO analysts from Business Society predict that market volatility will be limited.
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