This week, with loose supply and sustained demand, some companies have seen an increase in inventory. The acrylonitrile market continues to decline due to oversupply, with prices hitting a new low for the year. As of October 16th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 7900-7950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50-100 yuan/ton compared to last week; Short distance delivery to Shandong market is 7850-7950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week.
Loose supply:
There has been no fluctuation in the equipment during the week, and the 92000 tons/year acrylonitrile unit of Fushun Petrochemical is still in a shutdown state. The restart time has been postponed, and the specific time is yet to be determined. Under the situation of loose supply, inventory has increased. According to statistics, as of September 18th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 79.37%, with a weekly output of about 90500 tons, which is basically the same as the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 51000 tons, which is+0.45 million tons compared to last week.
Demand maintenance:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 73.1%, an increase of 0.6% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 75.63%, which is -0.9% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 54.61%, which was -0.36% compared to last week. The overall demand is basically maintained.
Cost reduction:
This week, the production cost of acrylonitrile has decreased. As of October 16th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6200-6230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150-200 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 6350-6430 yuan/ton. At the same time, the price decline of acrylonitrile narrowed, and the production loss situation slightly improved this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8630 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 2.71%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -698 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 122 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the current price has reached the lowest level of the year, and local buying has followed suit. However, the loose supply situation is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, and the cost support has also weakened, making it difficult for the market to reach a bottom.
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