Aluminum prices fluctuated upward in July, up 2.69% this week
On July 30, the average market price of aluminum ingot was 19856.67 yuan / ton, up 2.69% from the average market price of 19336.677 yuan / ton last Friday.
According to the data of business agency, on July 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 19856.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.45% compared with the average market price of 18830 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.
Taking the average market price of aluminum ingot at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) of 15726.67 yuan / ton as the benchmark price, it has increased by 26.26%.
Summary of aluminum market
Inventory: the social inventory data of aluminum ingots supported the aluminum price. On July 28, according to statistics, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 765000 tons, down 36000 tons compared with the previous week, especially in Shanghai, Wuxi and the South China Sea.
In terms of supply: the second round of storage dumping began, and the second batch of storage dumping was 90000 tons, slightly lower than the 100000 tons generally expected by the market. Due to the impact of the power consumption peak in summer, the power load pressure of China Southern Power Grid has not decreased. Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant may be required to increase from the previous 25% limit to 30%. Electrolytic aluminum plants in Guizhou and Guangxi also began to limit power slightly two weeks ago, Some aluminum enterprises chose to carry out annual maintenance in advance or reduce the load a little to deal with the resumption of production capacity shut down in Yunnan Province. There was little hope in July, and the monthly reduction was more than 70000. Overall, the second round of negative reserve selling was partially offset.
Future forecast
The market expects that the State Reserve will start to throw away its reserves or at the end of the year, about 50000 tons per month, and the supply is expected to change from tight to balanced in the second half of the year. In addition, Russia plans to increase tariffs on exported aluminum ingots from August to the end of the year, which is expected to have little impact on aluminum prices.
Business analysts believe that the current price range of 18500-20000 yuan / ton is a steady-state shock range formed by the market game. It is expected that the price of aluminum ingot will still operate around 19000 yuan / ton in the near future
| PVA |