1、 Price trend
The price of toluene rose this week, according to the bulk list data of business society. On July 25, the price of toluene was 5780 yuan / ton; The price on Sunday (August 1) was 0.52 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton or 0.52% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 72.92%.
2、 Analysis and review
The overall domestic toluene price has not changed much this week. Due to the reduction of supply in South China, the holders are willing to support the price. Crude oil prices rose this week with good cost support, but due to weather and other factors, toluene demand was weak, long and short offset, and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. In terms of external market, as of July 30, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $765 / ton, down US $4 / ton, or 0.52%, compared with July 23.
In terms of crude oil, the spread of isovirus strains dragged down the market mentality, but the inventory of crude oil and refined oil in the United States decreased, and the demand recovery was good, boosting the oil price. On July 16, Brent rose $2.23 / barrel, or 3.01%; WTI rose $1.88/barrel, or 2.61%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China remained stable this week, and the price of domestic goods was 14333.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 35.82% over the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is waiting to be sorted out. The offer of the cargo holder is large, stable and small. The transaction on the floor is not smooth. The negotiation and shipment are mainly focused. The downstream just needs to follow up. The enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the atmosphere on the floor is weak.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable for four consecutive weeks this week, with the price at 7100 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 47.92%. As of July 30, the closing prices in Asia were USD 940-942 / T FOB Korea and USD 958-960 / T CFR China.
3、 Future forecast
Toluene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that: at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of U.S. oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and the progress related to the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the US dollar index and stock market linkage.
Crude oil is expected to remain high in the short term, with good cost support; Downstream PX enterprises still have purchase intention and have certain support for toluene demand. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance dynamics of toluene unit, toluene inventory information and the impact of downstream demand on toluene price.
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