Cobalt prices fluctuate and rise in 2025
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on December 30th was 452800 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 167.93% compared to the cobalt price of 169000 yuan/ton on January 1st. The cobalt export ban and export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo have led to a dual factor of supply shortage and demand growth in the cobalt market, resulting in a sharp rise in cobalt prices in 2025; With the recovery of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo and the addition of new production capacity from Indonesia, where will cobalt prices go in 2026?
| http://www.pva-china.net |
Analysis of Cobalt Price Trends under the 2025 Congo Cobalt Export Ban
On February 24th, the relevant departments of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced that the country has decided to suspend cobalt exports for four months in response to the oversupply situation in the global cobalt market. This applies to all cobalt exports originating from mining in Congo, regardless of whether they come from industrial, semi industrial, small-scale or manual mining. This measure will come into effect on February 22nd.
The Democratic Republic of Congo announced that from June 21, 2025, due to the sustained high inventory levels in the market, it has decided to extend the temporary ban for another three months from the effective date of this decision.
On the early morning of September 22nd, the strategic mineral regulatory agency of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced that the country will extend the ban on cobalt exports until October 15th, lift the ban on cobalt exports on October 16th, and implement annual export quotas. From October to December 2025, mining companies in the Democratic Republic of Congo will be allowed to export over 18000 tons of cobalt, with a maximum annual export volume of 96600 tons in 2026 and 2027.
The Ministry of Mines and the Ministry of Finance of the Democratic Republic of the Congo jointly announced on November 26 that exporters must prepay 10% of the royalty fee within 48 hours after submitting the origin and sales declaration, and obtain a compliance certificate before customs clearance. The royalty fee can only be calculated and paid after sampling and laboratory testing to determine the quality and quantity. Goods without payment vouchers cannot leave the port.
According to the analysis system of the commodity cobalt market of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price trend in 2025 can be divided into several stages, corresponding to the release time of the cobalt export policy in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the inventory of cobalt market in each stage has different performances. Phase 1: From January to mid February, there was an oversupply in the cobalt market; Phase 2: The Democratic Republic of Congo announced a four month suspension of cobalt exports, causing a significant increase in cobalt prices and maintaining inventory in the cobalt market; Phase Three: Affected by time delay factors such as shipping cycles, cobalt exported from the Democratic Republic of Congo is still entering the market, and cobalt market inventories remain high; In the fourth stage, the ban on cobalt exports will be extended, and the cobalt market inventory will be consumed; In the fifth stage, the cobalt export quota system was introduced, and the cobalt market’s inventory continued to deplete, with no hope of replenishing inventory.
The cobalt export policy of the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2025 will directly determine the trend of cobalt prices. In 2026, the cobalt export policy of the Democratic Republic of Congo will be relatively stable, and the supply and demand of the cobalt market will determine the future trend.
Analysis of Supply and Demand Situation in Cobalt Market in 2026
Supply situation of cobalt market in 2026
The Congo Strategic Minerals Market Regulation and Control Authority (ARECOMS) has announced that due to delays in the implementation of the new export procedures, the country has decided to allow cobalt mining companies to retain their full export quotas allocated in 2025 to avoid losing their shipping rights due to incomplete procedures. This means that the unfinished quota is expected to be extended until 2026 for use. The cobalt export quota for the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2026 is approximately 114600 tons.
In early December 2025, Glencore became the first miner to export cobalt under the new quota system in Congo and has already launched a small-scale initial cargo testing system. On December 22, 2025, Tengkefeng Gulumei Mining, a subsidiary of China Molybdenum (CMOC), the world’s second-largest cobalt producer, officially launched its first shipment sampling under the new export quota system. Due to time delay factors such as shipping cycles, the transportation cycle from the Democratic Republic of Congo to China is about 3 months, and the arrival time of cobalt raw materials in China may be concentrated in April.
The annual cobalt production capacity of the Greenmei Indonesia Qingmei Bang project is 12000 tons. In the first half of 2025, the Greenmei Indonesia nickel resource project will produce 3667 tons of cobalt metal, a year-on-year increase of 125%. The monthly production in July exceeded 900 tons; About 10000 tons of cobalt metal are recycled annually in China.
Liqin Resources and its partners are collaborating to invest in a nickel smelting production line on Obi Island, Indonesia. The planned capacity for wet nickel production is 14000 tons of cobalt, with an equity capacity of 8200 tons of cobalt. All production will be completed by 2024; The first phase of the pyrometallurgical project has a production capacity of 95000 tons and has been put into operation since 2023. Some production lines of the second phase project have been put into operation in the first quarter of 2025 and will be fully put into operation in 2026. The company’s production capacity will increase to 280000 tons and equity production capacity will increase to 155000 tons.
Cobalt Market Demand in 2026
On August 21, 2025, the US Department of Defense and Defense Logistics Agency released bidding documents to accelerate cobalt strategic reserves in Europe and America. They plan to purchase approximately 7480 tons of alloy grade cobalt over the next five years, with an annual procurement of around 1500 tons, for strategic reserves, with a maximum procurement amount of up to $500 million. The EU has launched a reserve of 1000 tons, highlighting the resource security attributes of cobalt through strategic storage actions, leading to an increase in cobalt demand.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 20 million by 2026. The significant increase in sales of new energy vehicles has created a strong demand for cobalt; However, the proportion of ternary battery installations has been decreasing year by year, and coupled with the market’s promotion of high nickel undervalued ternary batteries, the demand growth for cobalt in new energy vehicle ternary batteries is limited.
The industrialization process of emerging industries such as humanoid robots has opened up a new long-term growth space for cobalt consumption. The production of humanoid robots in 2025 is in the early stages of mass production in the industry, and there is currently no unified official annual statistics. Global sales in 2025: Multiple institutions predict between 12000 and 18000 units. By 2025, China’s sales will account for the majority of global sales and are expected to exceed 10000 units. The explosive growth of humanoid robots in 2026 will determine the new demand in the cobalt market.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the global cobalt market supply is expected to be around 215000 tons in 2026, with a total demand of 221000 to 240000 tons. The cobalt market supply is expected to be short by 6000 to 25000 tons in 2026. The shortage of cobalt supply in the market has provided significant support for the rise in cobalt prices. In addition, the 10% royalty fee in the export quota system of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the increased environmental pressure have led to an increase in the cost of exporting cobalt raw materials in the country. In the future, the bottom price of cobalt may remain above 300000 to 350000 yuan/ton. Due to the difficulty of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo reaching ports before April, and the continuous depletion of domestic cobalt market inventories, cobalt market inventories may bottom out by the end of April. With the support of essential demand, cobalt prices may soar to the highest level of the year, and are expected to briefly impact the 660000 yuan/ton in 2018.