Insufficient demand, melamine market is stable and declining (1.4-1.8)

1、 Melamine price trend


(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)


2、 Market analysis


According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of January 8, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 7266.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, decreased by 2.24% compared with December 8, 2020, and increased by 29.76% year on year in a three-month cycle. At present, some units are shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate of melamine has slightly decreased, but the domestic downstream demand is not good. Although the market quotation is temporarily stable, under the pressure of enterprise sales, the actual transaction price is weak, and some new orders are stable.


At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 7000 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Xinjiang is around 6400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of melamine in Sichuan is around 7000 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual price shall prevail.


Upstream urea, Shandong urea market rose on January 8. The recent high level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia shows good cost support. The domestic demand is weak as a whole. Affected by the air pollution control, the operating rate of plate continues to decline. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises purchase moderately, and the agricultural part inquires. The operators are cautious about the high price source, and do not make a lot of preparation.


According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices on January 7, 2021, there were 18 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, of which one was more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were propylene glycol (10.29%), crude benzene (3.80%) and cryolite (3.02%). A total of 14 kinds of commodities declined month on month, with phenol (- 3.21%), DMF (- 2.90%) and n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 2.78%) as the top three products. The average daily rise or fall was 0.12%.


3、 Future forecast


Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the price of upstream urea is rising slightly, the cost support is limited, the domestic downstream demand is weak, and the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that the melamine market will be weak and stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.