1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices first fell and then rose this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 120416.67 yuan/ton, up 2.37% from the beginning of the week and down 3.5% year-on-year.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 6 times and risen 6 times in the past 12 weeks, with a slight decrease in nickel prices recently.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, after the release of November employment data in the United States, market sentiment quickly turned optimistic, with 64000 new jobs added. Although it exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021. The market’s expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has driven up metal prices, as lower borrowing costs are conducive to stimulating the economy and metal demand.
In terms of news, the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the nickel ore production proposed in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) may be about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the production target of 379 million tons in RKAB in 2025; APNI has disclosed that the Department of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to revise the formula for calculating the Mineral Benchmark Price (HPM) for nickel commodities in early 2026. According to APNI, one of the key points of this revision is that the government will begin to value nickel associated minerals (such as cobalt) as independent minerals and impose royalties on them.
On the supply side, Indonesia’s nickel production increased significantly by 16.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025. In recent years, Indonesia has attracted a large amount of investment through its “downstream” strategy, accelerated the landing of smelting capacity, and continued to release supply increments to the global market. The domestic market also shows a trend of capacity expansion, with a year-on-year increase of 21.8% in refined nickel production during the same period.
On the demand side, the trading atmosphere in the downstream stainless steel spot market has improved, with a total inventory of 1.0636 million tons of stainless steel in the mainstream market nationwide, a decrease of 1.55% compared to the previous week. From the perspective of the new energy industry chain, the decline in nickel prices and the approaching year-end have further dragged down the price center due to the emergence of low-priced goods. At the same time, the marginal demand has weakened, and the production of ternary precursors in December has decreased month on month.
In summary, the strategic downward adjustment of Indonesia’s nickel production target indicates that global nickel supply may decrease. Although it can help optimize the global supply structure and build bottom support for nickel prices in the medium to long term, the short-term market will still engage in repeated games between policy implementation effects, supply-demand rebalancing, and macroeconomic variables. It is expected that nickel prices will experience strong fluctuations.
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